Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[metaphysician]

OTOH, they can't just directly clone the Marvel takes on the characters. Anyone can do a story about Thor and Loki, but if their portrayals of Thor and Loki look an awful lot like the Marvel versions, in ways that are not obviously the result of the same inspiration. . .

 

[Finarfiniel]

Characters created for the comics like the Warriors Three and Beta Ray Bill are the property of Marvel. But anyone can use the Norse gods. The creators of the Sharknado films put out an Almighty Thor DTV mockbuster back when the original MCU film was released. And Loki is a character in the STARZ series American Gods.

Yep. Thor, Loki, Odin, Heimdall, Frigga, Sif and Hel(a) are all 'public domain characters', being characters originally from Norse/Germanic mythology. But Marvel's own unique versions of those characters (Thor as a blonde comic book alien superhero rather than a bearded, red haired viking god, e.t.c) would be copyright to Marvel so another studio could not use the characters in their Marvel specific incarnations.

 

[Vartha]

I'm thinking around 700 mil. The look of the film with Hulk added, there SHOULD be alot of interest for Thor Ragarok

 

[Finarfiniel]

I'm thinking around 700 mil. The look of the film with Hulk added, there SHOULD be alot of interest for Thor Ragarok

I'm expecting more than 700 mil to be honest. If TDW can make 644 mil on middling reviews, surely Ragnarok (if it's as good as it looks right now and is helped by some fantastic WOM) could do way better than that. Especially if Marvel really advertise the fact that it's the big cosmic event movie lead-in to Infinity War. I'd love to see closer to 900 mil, perhaps more. I have faith in Marvel that they can do it.

 

[Wildcard]

If by some chance this would manage more than $900 million and/or hits a billion, I'd probably literally pass out.

 

[Finarfiniel]

If by some chance this would manage more than $900 million and/or hits a billion, I'd probably literally pass out.

Same here, I think I'd be freaking ecstatic.

 

[HammerDown]

I think 900M is doable. It's just a matter of keeping the marketing on the right track and reaching out to even more public. The Teaser Trailer was a massive hit and brought basically everyone that saw it on board of the hype train. It was a great piece of marketing to begin with. The stage is set...

The movie already looks epic and we haven't even seen so much more crazy stuff that is in the movie and we have been teased... Surtur, Fenris Wolf, Doctor Strange, Odin, Korg, Miek... just to name some of the characters we haven't seen yet. And then we have all the moments like the action with all of these characters and humor... The dialog and motivations of everyone... The epic showdowns... They still have a lot of aces up their sleeves that are just going to hype this movie even more when the next trailers get released.

Marvel has in Thor Ragnarok a gem. If they play the cards right this movie is gonna surpass a lot of the expectations and become a juggernaut in it's own right. Marvel has to take this movie and turn it into a "snowball effect" with the marketing and the director and the cast all on board to push this movie over the edge critically and in the box office.

 

[seriesofdreams]

$700m+ here. I think it's safe to say it will be the highest grossing Thor movie. If WOM is better than TDW, then likely to have better legs.

 

[legendkillin]

$850 it is the cosmic lead in to IWs so that should help.

 

[HammerDown]

While reading an article about the GOTG2 box office results i saw something that kinda made me think about how big Thor: TDW was in foreign markets and why i do think that Thor is a force to be reckon with concerning foreign box office results. And that will come into play when Thor Ragnarok rolls out of the gates.

MCU Foreign Box Office

1. Avengers: AOU - 946M
2. Avengers - 895M
3. Iron Man 3 - 805M
4. Captain America: CW - 745M
5. GOTG2 - 454M * (Still in theaters)
6. Captain America: WS - 454M
7. Doctor Strange - 450M
8. GOTG - 440M
9. Thor: TDW - 438M

Thor is a big draw in foreign markets and that's pretty clear when you consider how much money it made even having a average reception by critics... a RT rating of only 66% (the lowest of all in the list above and by a large margin). Still the interest was there for the general audience wich went to watch a "average" Thor movie.

I think Thor Ragnarok is without a doubt going to be the best of the 3 Thor movies. And since it's more of an event movie than anything else i think it will improve greatly the foreign results and have it easily surpass the 500 mark abroad and even going further than 600M.

 

[HammerDown]

And also a quote from the Forbes article.

But otherwise, what we've seen of late is that there is a clear ceiling, thus far, for any big-budget comic book movie that doesn't prominently feature Batman, Spider-Man or Iron Man.

Maybe Thor: Ragnarok will break the trend, since A) it looks spectacular and B) it's somewhat positioning itself as another ensemble adventure (Thor+Hulk+Loki+Dr. Strange). But I'd wager the proximity to Justice League may keep both films from reaching their uber-peak potential.

I have seen this idea floating around youtube channels, opinion articles... That Thor Ragnarok is somewhat positioning itself to be a box office giant and have an incredible result.

 

[GeckoMoria]

There is no way it will be a box office giant with JL after two weeks. Despite DCEU's track record (WW didn't change anything, they are still 1/4) it's JL. It can get Fan4stic reviews and it will still gross over 800 and you all know that. They have the exact same audience and JL is the first time all those heroes appear on screen together. Ragnarok is the THIRD Thor film and people have seen those characters plenty of times already.

 

[HammerDown]

So this year we have had several comic book movie opening weekends already...

GOTG2 - 146M
Wonder Woman - 100M
Logan - 88M

Spider-Man: Homecoming is probably going to be around 110 to 140... What about Thor Ragnarok? Any predictions? For myself and at this point in time i think 120M.

 

[metaphysician]

Too early to say. It depends not only on the final quality of the movie ( and we are *waaaaay* far away from seeing anything even close to reviews ), but also on the success level of the movies coming out a week or two before.

 

[InCali]

Too early to say. It depends not only on the final quality of the movie ( and we are *waaaaay* far away from seeing anything even close to reviews ), but also on the success level of the movies coming out a week or two before.

I went to see WW this weekend in 3D XD so this was the first time I saw the T:R trailer on the big screen in 3D. It just gets more and more awesome.

It is going to be a first day 3D extravaganza for me. I don't care if I have to take a vacation day.

 

[Flemm]

I predict the studio will make a ton of money, but they won't give any of it to me, as usual.

*shakes fist*

But, yeah, the trailer couldn't be better. I saw it again prior to WW.

 

[InCali]

I predict the studio will make a ton of money, but they won't give any of it to me, as usual.

*shakes fist*

But, yeah, the trailer couldn't be better. I saw it again prior to WW.

You should write reviews. That's how you make the real money from Disney/Marvel. I've got Benjamins laying all over the house for my service.

 

[Darepool]

What about Thor Ragnarok? Any predictions? For myself and at this point in time i think 120M.

I'm thinking anywhere between 100 -115. It would likely make more with a spring/summer release, but it will easily be the top Thor film at the box office.

 

[HammerDown]

I'm thinking anywhere between 100 -115. It would likely make more with a spring/summer release, but it will easily be the top Thor film at the box office.

I personally think that's a conservative estimation.
Thor: TDW made 85M OW at the box office also because it wasn't that well received and it was a smaller film in terms of scope of it all. I firmly believe Thor: Ragnarok is gonna be easily the best Thor movie and also one of the greats in the MCU. The scope is way bigger and we have to add in Hulk, Doctor Strange, Hela, Surtur... Taika Waititi... I think the reception is gonna be really positive and the hype surrounding the movie is already pretty high even though we are still 5 months aways form the release date.

Top November Opening Weekends:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - 158M
2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - 142
3. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - 141
4. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - 138
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 - 125
6. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 - 121
7. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 102
8. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 - 102

It will easily drop in this top. If the marketing campaign keeps pulling it's weight and the movie gets the reception i am hoping i see it finishing in the higher end of that group.

 

[Darepool]

Great points. For some reason I thought it made 70 million OW, similar to the first. It was a bit conservative though, but I always undersell as opposed to oversell. That way I won't be disappointed.

 

[coreymb16]

What do you guys think about the fact that this is opening two weeks before Justice League? I am pretty sure JL will make north of $150 million opening weekend and this might cut T:R's legs if it gets go reviews.

 

[GeckoMoria]

It doesn't matter. The best movies will have the best legs and ragnarok is gonna be the best movie a we are all thinking that. Be honest.

 

[HammerDown]

What do you guys think about the fact that this is opening two weeks before Justice League? I am pretty sure JL will make north of $150 million opening weekend and this might cut T:R's legs if it gets go reviews.

TR drops on November 3rd and JL on November 17th.
Thor Ragnarok will be entering the 3rd weekend when Justice League comes out. If you look at GOTG2 for example, in it's first 14 days it did 266M DOM... So those 2 first weeks are where the big chunk of money is being done. Having said that of course JL is gonna have an impact after that because it too is a comic book movie and a giant one at that which will affect TR numbers in the long haul.

Still it also depends a lot on how both movies are going to be received by critics and general audiences alike. If TR is well received and the word of mouth is good then it will have good legs no matter what. It may make less money because of having a strong similar contender by it's side at the same time but it will still make a decent amount. It's also important to take into account what type of shadow can TR cast over the JL movie since it's first out of the gates.

But this is more of a domestic box office situation... because in some of the biggest foreign markets there's a larger time gap... Brazil, France, Australia, Spain, UK, Italy... They are all going to release TR in October and in doing so they will have plenty of time to make money since the gap will be 3 weeks.

 

[metaphysician]

Its also entirely possible that JL will get pushed back, anyway, if the reshoot rumors prove true.

 

[Flemm]

Thor tends to perform well overseas, and the first couple of weeks could be pretty big in the US, if the hype continues to be positive.

JL may hurt the legs a bit, but I think the movie will still do very well overall.