Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[Mjölnir]

It's inevitable that Ragnarok and JL will hinder each other's success when they are that close. That's not very unique though as there's generally always competition, although it's of course a bit special when it's two movies in the same subgenre and with the same target audience.

 

[GeckoMoria]

All that matters if it's a good movie or not. Marvel isn't starving for box office and they don't tend to go beyond a trilogy anyway. I don't care if it makes 400 mil as long as it's good. Marvel isn't going bankrupt anytime soon.

 

[HammerDown]

This movie will performer really well worldwide. The biggest foreign markets seem to be China, UK, Russia, Germany, Australia, France, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, Japan, Italy... Thor: The Dark World managed to gather this much in some of those markets.
China - 55M
Russia - 35M
UK - 31M
Brazil - 27M
Mexico - 23M
France - 22M
South Korea - 21M
Germany - 20M
Australia - 20M
...
I have a strong belief that TR is gonna easily surpass all of those results. The movie already looks way better than TDW just with one awesome Teaser Trailer. It looks like an insane, action packed, funny adventure in the cosmos with 2 of the biggest Marvel heavy hitters, Thor & Hulk... This is no ordinary Thor movie. Cate Blanchett as Hela looks epic. She is undoubtedly one of the things that blew more people away... The movie has the best cast ever for a Marvel movie and a very talented director.

Taking all of this into account i think the 438M total foreign gross for T:TDW is gonna be crushed and left in the dust. I just don't see this movie making less than 500M overseas.

If marketed properly and heavily in China it will already get a massive bump, the focus over there should be Thor vs Hulk with Hela a strong female villain as the looming threat and with all the action... It's sure to make people exicted over there and South Korea should follow suit. It's gonna crush in Australia with Chris Hemsworth, Cate Blanchett in the forefront and the movie being filmed over there and also with Taika, Karl Urban... from NZ, it should also help.

The hype in Brazil is already massive from what i read and watch everywhere and it's a strong market for Thor so adding everything else will just push it over the edge. It also should do very well in Europe. In Russia i have no ideia how it will perform but T:TDW had a great haul over there.

 

[Panacea]

I dunno, Wonder Woman and FotF aside, pretty much ever potential blockbuster has fallen short of what has been expected this year. Unless Justice League gets terrible reviews I don't see Ragnarok doing too much more than $700m.

 

[HammerDown]

Countries getting the movie in October.

France - 25 October 2017
Italy - 25 October 2017
Australia - 26 October 2017
Brazil - 26 October 2017
Chile - 26 October 2017
New Zealand - 26 October 2017
Singapore - 26 October 2017
Taiwan - 26 October 2017
Bulgaria - 27 October 2017
Estonia - 27 October 2017
Spain - 27 October 2017
UK - 27 October 2017
Croatia - 27 October 2017
Norway - 27 October 2017
Romania - 27 October 2017
Sweden - 27 October 2017
Turkey - 27 October 2017
Vietnam - 27 October 2017
Germany - 31 October 2017

In bold the countries that normally have a bigger return at the box office. Most of these countries have 3 weeks until JL drops which is very good for TR that in turn should make most of it's money in that amount of time. For comparison Thor: The Dark World made over 142M in those 7 countries and over 170M in all of those countries. Thor Ragnarok will undoubtably do more. Probably over 200M.

And the only big markets left are China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, USA... which "should"(it's not set in stone) have only a 2 week gap from the release of JL. These particular countries contributed a total of over 342M to T:TDW box office.

 

[metaphysician]

Eh, I think I'll stick with my prediction of 800-900. I'll be pleased as punch if it does better, but that depends on a combination of both "much higher quality than expected" and "JL totally tanks".

 

[Ozbridge]

Hmmm..., this will probably open to 90M-110M, I'm not sure about 2nd weekend drop but 3rd weekend drop will be around 60%, TDW had 60% 3rd weekend drop too but that one had Frozen fudge and Coco won't be able to prop Ragnarok up much. OTOH this has a trustworthy director so the movie will likely be considerably better. I'll go with 250-280M domestic. I'd put WW number around 700M but not sure about over or under...

Oh well there're fewer vote for 600M-700M than 700M-800M so I'll pick 600M-700M.

 

[Lilbaz]

$750m

 

[Flemm]

This movie will performer really well worldwide.

I think it certainly will, as the previous Thor films have done very well overseas, but one should remember that the dollar is stronger now, so that will be a factor.

For example, The Dark World (2013) had basically the same overseas number as Guardians 1 (2014), both around 438M.

The dollar got stronger soon after that.

People were expecting a big increase overseas for Guardians 2 but, while it did very well, it only increased to 470M approximately, partly due to the dollar being significantly stronger at the moment.

It's possible that Ragnarok will be a bigger hit than Guardians 2 overseas, but I don't think we can assume that. It's been a while since the last Thor movie.

 

[JB33]

I'm thinking this will have a $100M+ opening weekend and finish with just under $300M domestic. It depends on just how big the opening is though. I said $100M+ but I'm thinking just over $100M. If it's over $120M then it'll cross the $300M mark in total.

 

[HammerDown]

I'm thinking this will have a $100M+ opening weekend and finish with just under $300M domestic. It depends on just how big the opening is though. I said $100M+ but I'm thinking just over $100M. If it's over $120M then it'll cross the $300M mark in total.

Yeh I can't see this movie doing less than 100M OW. It has so much going for it. My prediction is an optimistic 120M OW and around 300M DOM. And I don't see the movie doing less than 500M overseas. The second one did good(438M overseas only) even not being that great and this one looks so much better.

 

[BigThor]

A billion billion dollars....

 

[writer0327]

The trailer did it's job. I'm keeping it at a solid $825M.

 

[HammerDown]

Marketing campaign through the roof. The sky is the limit.t:

 

[writer0327]

It's possible that Ragnarok will be a bigger hit than Guardians 2 overseas, but I don't think we can assume that. It's been a while since the last Thor movie.

I think this is going to slay overseas, much bigger than Guardians 2. This looks like there's going to be straight up action and straight forward humor without any pop culture references. That mixture will cross any and all language barriers.

My guess:
$345M domestic
$480M overseas
$825M WW

 

[metaphysician]

And it has a virtue JL lacks, going off the trailers: action that you can *actually see*, and that isn't all muddled in darkness. *eg*

( Also villains that have an *actual visual identity*, and don't look like midgame random encounters from a video game *cough* )

 

[BigThor]

And it has a virtue JL lacks, going off the trailers: action that you can *actually see*, and that isn't all muddled in darkness. *eg*

( Also villains that have an *actual visual identity*, and don't look like midgame random encounters from a video game *cough* )

The villain from The Justice League movie does look like a mini boss from Dark Souls 3 lol. I like him though, he certainly looks powerful and threatening.

 

[HammerDown]

Steppenwolf has nothing on Hela. From what we have seen so far she is just in a hole other level.

 

[Mjölnir]

Steppenwolf has nothing on Hela. From what we have seen so far she is just in a hole other level.

Judging by the trailer the Vulture has some very stiff competition. I loved the Vulture but I'm leaning towards that Hela takes the crown for the year.

 

[BigThor]

Steppenwolf has nothing on Hela. From what we have seen so far she is just in a hole other level.

In a fight or as a character?

 

[metaphysician]

Both? From what little we've seen of both characters, Hela both has an actual personality and a fighting style that isn't super generic.

 

[HammerDown]

In a fight or as a character?

I was referring to their characterization.

 

[FlareKnight]

I'm going to say around 800 million. I know Justice League is going to take a bite out of this movie. But it does have a couple weeks to make some money before battling with that film for the rest of it's theatrical run-time.

Plus I just think a movie that looks this good will get a strong return. It's the first chance for people to see Thor and Hulk in a theater in years. Plus it just looks exciting as heck with a strong villain.

I don't think it will challenge 900 million, but I could see it crossing the 800 million range.

 

[BigThor]

Both? From what little we've seen of both characters, Hela both has an actual personality and a fighting style that isn't super generic.

But do you think she can beat him in a fight?

 

[metaphysician]

Too early to say, but my inclination is to say "yes". What little we've seen of Steppenwolf suggests he is, at best, a little more powerful than any one JLAer. Nothing to compare with destroying Mjolnir, or single-handedly slaughtering an army of Einherjar.