Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[HammerDown]

THOR RAGNAROK

Opening Weekend - 120M
Domestic - 300M
Foreign - 600M
Worldwide = 900M

My prediction is still unchanged. If i am being totally honest i think that the foreign estimate is a bit too high. I would say the safest bet would be around the 500M mark. The 120M OW i contend is a realistic estimate taking into account everything that i'm expecting will lead into the release of this movie. The Domestic is also not that far off either in my view.

I don't see TR making less than 700M WW. That's the base level. If i had to guess right now i would put the WW total around 800M. But i always hope it's going to do better just because it deserves it from what i have seen so far.

I can see this film doing between 130-150 million the opening weekend.

I would say that's an optimistic estimate but more power to you to believe in the success of the movie and it's big appeal.

 

[BigThor]

My base level for the worldwide total is about 850 million.

 

[HammerDown]

My base level for the worldwide total is about 850 million.

Opening Weekend - 130 to 150M
Domestic -
Foreign -
Worldwide = 850M

Fill in the blanks so that i have a better idea of your estimates.

 

[BigThor]

My projections is

Opening Weeknd -130 to 150 million

Domestic - 350 million plus

Foreign - 600 million

World Wide - 900M to 1 Billion

 

[HammerDown]

A while back people we're super surprised with the amount of views the trailer for IT had in 24 hours (#1 of all time with 197M) but they almost entirely discarted that has having an impact in the box office results. The truth was that particular trailer did indeed generate a lot of buzz for the movie at the time and now after a big number of reviews dropped and the critics really liked it (88% on RT) the interest in the movie seems to go in some kind of frenzy again with a few box office records already being broken.

For a R Rated movie, IT is surely to make a big splash at the box office with estimates of 100M OW being tossed around by Deadline, Forbes... IT has already had a "49 million opening on Friday (including $13.5 million in late Thursday previews)" "It will still almost certainly take in $100 million or more in its debut weekend." Needless to say that this IT movie is a monster hit for all standards let alone the horror genre and the R-Rated type.

Interestingly enough the Box Office Pro first and early estimate for IT was 40M OW and a DOM total of 100M.

Now let's bring in Thor Ragnarok to the mix and make some interesting comparisons and parallels with IT. Thor Ragnarok also had a thunderous success with it's first Trailer (#3 of all time with 136M views in 24 hours). The buzz generated was also huge and that has carried on with the second trailer as well and everything since. In terms of RT rating that's all a guessing game at this point but Taika Waititi movies are generally very well received by critics with his 2 previous movies WWDITS and HFTWP having ratings of 96 and 97% respectively.

Thor Ragnarok is not a R-Rated movie so the general "appeal" will also be naturally larger meaning the movie will be able to cast his net into a wider audience. Thor Ragnarok BOP early estimates are 100M OW and 250M DOM. Those estimates could very well change and most likely will indeed increase.

As a final example and accordingly to BOP early estimates Wonder Woman - 83M OW and 225M DOM. In the end of the day WW had a OW of 103M and a DOM total of "404M". All this to say that the predictions are not so clear cut and there's definitely plenty of space for improvement as the movie draws closer to it's release date.

 

[Gamma Ra]

A while back people we're super surprised with the amount of views the trailer for IT had in 24 hours (#1 of all time with 197M) but they almost entirely discarted that has having an impact in the box office results. The truth was that particular trailer did indeed generate a lot of buzz for the movie at the time and now after a big number of reviews dropped and the critics really liked it (88% on RT) the interest in the movie seems to go in some kind of frenzy again with a few box office records already being broken.

For a R Rated movie, IT is surely to make a big splash at the box office with estimates of 100M OW being tossed around by Deadline, Forbes... IT has already had a "49 million opening on Friday (including $13.5 million in late Thursday previews)" "It will still almost certainly take in $100 million or more in its debut weekend." Needless to say that this IT movie is a monster hit for all standards let alone the horror genre and the R-Rated type.

Interestingly enough the Box Office Pro first and early estimate for IT was 40M OW and a DOM total of 100M.

Now let's bring in Thor Ragnarok to the mix and make some interesting comparisons and parallels with IT. Thor Ragnarok also had a thunderous success with it's first Trailer (#3 of all time with 136M views in 24 hours). The buzz generated was also huge and that has carried on with the second trailer as well and everything since. In terms of RT rating that's all a guessing game at this point but Taika Waititi movies are generally very well received by critics with his 2 previous movies WWDITS and HFTWP having ratings of 96 and 97% respectively.

Thor Ragnarok is not a R-Rated movie so the general "appeal" will also be naturally larger meaning the movie will be able to cast his net into a wider audience. Thor Ragnarok BOP early estimates are 100M OW and 250M DOM. Those estimates could very well change and most likely will indeed increase.

As a final example and accordingly to BOP early estimates Wonder Woman - 83M OW and 225M DOM. In the end of the day WW had a OW of 103M and a DOM total of "404M". All this to say that the predictions are not so clear cut and there's definitely plenty of space for improvement as the movie draws closer to it's release date.

Great points!

Trailers are used to create that buzz for a film, but anticipation does not determine the movies box office. There are many factors, rating being one of them, but the main factor is that the movie must deliver on the excitement that the trailers generated. I remember the marketing disaster that was Ang Lee's Hulk. The buzz was created, but a bad decision to show unfinished Hulk CGI to everyone during the Super Bowl killed some enthusiasm. The rest was killed by the moody psychological tone, while the movie was marketed as an action adventure. Thor Ragnarok must be as exciting a movie as it's trailers in order to guarantee that all those views will add up to box office numbers. Word of mouth makes and breaks films.

 

[HammerDown]

Another thing about the marketing campaign for this movie and how i do think it will undoubtably help to make this movie a big hit at the box office coupled later on with what i am expecting are going to be good reviews and great WOM right before release. I think that this early marketing push for the movie is a very good sign, to me it shows they have confidence in the movie and they want it to reach as much people as possible.

I feel that Marvel knows that they have a potential massive hit in their hands because of the way the movie has been received by fans, the general audience and the overall reception to their marketing campaign and also the buzz created from a fresh, bold and new Thor movie. I think Thor will deliver domestically, it's also a big draw overseas and i really hope they can ignite the asian market as well to boost the results at the box office. Times have changed and a well marketed movie in China, South Korea, Japan... can really go a long way.

Spiderman: Homecoming for example just made 70M OW in China. Marvel has to play their cards right with Ragnarok over there too.

 

[Gamma Ra]

I agree.

Marvel Studios has learned how to make fun movies. They have a few exceptional. If the story is there along with the action, this movie will cross the billion dollar mark.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I agree.

Marvel Studios has learned how to make fun movies. They have a few exceptional. If the story is there along with the action, this movie will cross the billion dollar mark.

OH, I think Thor Ragnarok will make billion. I have seven reasons why.

 

[Gamma Ra]

OH, I think Thor Ragnarok will make billion. I have seven reasons why.

If you mean the cast...I see your point.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

If you mean the cast...I see your point.

ONE cast member, actually, if not the entire cast.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Here are 7 reasons why I think Thor: Ragnarok will make a billion:

- Every third chapter in an MCU solo trilogy we've seen so far made $1B+WW despite having Iron Man (though Spider-Man may prove that was one exception). Thor could follow that path for the second reason I have.
- Hulk, which could help give the movie a global boost, given he's maybe the second or third most popular character in the MCU underneath Iron Man and/or Cap and also because since Thor is maybe Marvel's least loved franchise in the MCU, they'll need a popular MCU character help put more people in seats for a movie centered around the least popular character in the MCU. And, since people have been longing to see more of Ruffalo's Hulk since Avengers 1&2 and have wanted a solo Hulk movie set on Planet Hulk, this Thor threequel is their ultimate wish.
- Doctor Strange is also in their and there is global love for Cumberbatch as well, even if he's in the movie for just that scene where Thor meets him in the Sanctum Sanctorum.
- The fact that the first trailer was the third ever most-watched trailer online in 24 hours and is Disney's most-watched trailer topping Beauty and the Beast (Disney's last billion dollar maker) by 9 million views. That may be a potential thing working in favor for maybe a $150M+ OW for Thor: Ragnarok.
- Unlike JL, Ragnarok is getting an overseas start 9-10 days before it's USA release. So, if it can make a 5-day OW that's on par or close to Avengers 2, Iron Man 3 or Civil War, that may help Thor 3's overseas start of its quest to get a billion globally going on a high note.
- Since the runtime is said to be one of the solidly paced of the MCU movies being it is 130 minutes long, we could see it get more showtimes in theaters.
- And, finally, let's not also forget the fact that any movie that has tickets up for pre-order 8 or 9 weeks in advance could be a billion dollar maker (Avengers 2, Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Captain America: Civil War).

Bonus reason: if rumors are true that Thanos will show up at the end of Ragnarok to wreck stuff up with Hela's assistance and castoff Thor to space, that could get audiences more excited to see what's coming in Infinity War.

Well, those are my reasons why Ragnarok will make a billion, guys. What do U think? Am I making too many assumptions? Or do I make a valid case of a list for how Thor 3 could make a billion?

 

[Gamma Ra]

ONE cast member, actually, if not the entire cast.

What's those seven reasons?

 

[LucDisfilm19]

What's those seven reasons?

I have them listed above.

 

[Gamma Ra]

I have them listed above.

Caught it late and I generally agree.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Caught it late and I generally agree.

Thank you.

 

[Finarfiniel]

I'm absolutely terrible at box office predictions so I'm not even going to hazard a guess, but I'd love to see Ragnarok at least reach the 800mill mark and I certainly think that's achievable if it's as good as it looks and has legs. It should certainly make quite a lot more than TDW, and if the wild success of 'IT' has proven anything, it's that social media buzz and trailer views can and do translate into box office success. The buzz for this movie has been huge so far, so fingers crossed it bodes as well for Ragnarok as it clearly has done for IT.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm absolutely terrible at box office predictions so I'm not even going to hazard a guess, but I'd love to see Ragnarok at least reach the 800mill mark and I certainly think that's achievable if it's as good as it looks and has legs. It should certainly make quite a lot more than TDW, and if the wild success of 'IT' has proven anything, it's that social media buzz and trailer views can and do translate into box office success. The buzz for this movie has been huge so far, so fingers crossed it bodes as well for Ragnarok as it clearly has done for IT.

Let's hope.

 

[Iceman]

I'm absolutely terrible at box office predictions so I'm not even going to hazard a guess, but I'd love to see Ragnarok at least reach the 800mill mark and I certainly think that's achievable if it's as good as it looks and has legs. It should certainly make quite a lot more than TDW, and if the wild success of 'IT' has proven anything, it's that social media buzz and trailer views can and do translate into box office success. The buzz for this movie has been huge so far, so fingers crossed it bodes as well for Ragnarok as it clearly has done for IT.

Wow, I hadn't realised how much 'It' made. That is a crazy number for a horror film.

 

[Surfer]

I put 900 Million to 1 Billion. Seeing Thor and Hulk interact together is pure Gold. It was some of the best parts of the Avengers movie, and given there has been such a great reaction to the Trailers and given this is the third outing, I can see it pulling off 900 Million to 1 Billion.

Surfer

 

[Iceman]

The GA loves Hulk outside of Hulk solos it seems lol.

 

[HammerDown]

According to Forbes IT made an absolutely incredible and insane 123M OW at the box office. For a R Rated movie! Wow. That put's "IT" in the Top 30 OW of all time(#27).

It's going to be very interesting/entertaining to gauge the box office result for Thor Ragnarok based on what we have already discussed before and the comparisons there to be had between both movies. Let's see if the massive buzz generated does indeed translates or not into a stunning box office for Thor Ragnarok. The quality of the movie and critical reception will most likely boost the numbers into an even higher level.

Most watched trailers in 24 hours.

1. It - 197 million
2. Fate of the Furious - 139M
3. Thor Ragnarok - 136M

 

[LucDisfilm19]

The World Premiere of Thor: Ragnarok in one month from now: http://www.averagesocialite.com/2016/07/thor-ragnarok-premiere-la.html?m=1. This is MAJOR evidence that Disney is confident enough in the film that it will make $1 billion worldwide, especially with tickets still available now for pre-order.

This is the second earliest Marvel Studios world premiere, just underneath Captain America: Civil War by a day.

 

[Ghostcrow13]

I'm gonna go

OW: 110m
Dom: 275m
For: 500
WW: 775m

IT seems more like a megafreak situation, Thor will act like a normal superhero film I think

 

[HammerDown]

The World Premiere of Thor: Ragnarok in one month from now: http://www.averagesocialite.com/2016/07/thor-ragnarok-premiere-la.html?m=1. This is MAJOR evidence that Disney is confident enough in the film that it will make $1 billion worldwide, especially with tickets still available now for pre-order.

This is the second earliest Marvel Studios world premiere, just underneath Captain America: Civil War by a day.

If this date for the premiere, October 11th, is indeed correct then it just shows how very confident Marvel really is on the quality of the movie. We can draw parallels with Captain America: Civil War and how that was received and it's success and also with Doctor Strange that even though it had basically the same release date last year it only had it's LA premiere on October 20th.