Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[gerrym51]

i went to deadline and read the article. None of it sounded like a spoiler based on trailers-i've seen.

 

[BigThor]

I can't believe people think this film is just going to do 30 million more than TDW's OW, with THIS much buzz PLUS the Hulk.

 

[Finarfiniel]

i went to deadline and read the article. None of it sounded like a spoiler based on trailers-i've seen.

Then you've definitely missed something (unless they've removed it now, I haven't checked tbh), it's only one word and it's fairly easy to skim read over. It's something that hasn't been hinted at in any trailers.

I can't believe people think this film is just going to do 30 million more than TDW's OW, with THIS much buzz PLUS the Hulk.

These early estimates are always pretty conservative, it will probably go up as the film gets closer to release.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I can't believe people think this film is just going to do 30 million more than TDW's OW, with THIS much buzz

I think you're looking at it in the wrong manner. Don't see the absolute number, think about the percentage increase. The 30 million increment represents a 35% increase over TDW's OW. Like I said earlier, that's almost exactly the same increase IM3 (174 million) showed over IM2 (128 million). That one had the mother of all buzzes since it was following The Avengers.

Thor: Ragnarok can increase bigger and I think it will but as of right nao the 30 million increase is a good one based on previous efforts.

PLUS the Hulk.

Is Hulk popular enough to drive up the ticket sales tho??

 

[BigThor]

I think you're looking at it in the wrong manner. Don't see the absolute number, think about the percentage increase. The 30 million increment represents a 35% increase over TDW's OW. Like I said earlier, that's almost exactly the same increase IM3 (174 million) showed over IM42 (128 million). That one had the mother of all buzzes since it was following The Avengers.

Thor: Ragnarok can increase bigger and I think it will but as of right nao the 30 million increase is a good one based on previous efforts.



Is Hulk popular enough to drive up the ticket sales tho??

Yes he does extremely well in a team setting, he seems to have an even bigger role in this film not to mention he TALKS now.

 

[HammerDown]

These early estimates are always pretty conservative, it will probably go up as the film gets closer to release.

Yeh i think so too. For example Deadline released the exact same type of article at exactly the same time( 21 days before release) for IT's box office opening weekend prediction. 21 days before IT's release date they where predicting 60M OW. IT ended up doing 123M OW!

http://deadline.com/2017/08/it-stephen-king-projected-box-office-opening-1202150870/

IT

For It, males overall are 24% unaided, 75 total awareness, 57% definite and 17% first choice. Females are 26% unaided, 76% total, 50% definite and 18% first choice. Teen males are 24% unaided, 75% total, 66% definite, and 24% first choice.

“It’s not competing against anything on tracking,” said one distribution bean-counter. “That’s why those figures are so high.”

Thor Ragnarok

Thor Ragnarok, the third in the series, hit tracking this morning, and it’s looking at a $100M-$110M start per industry figures with enormous strength among the four quadrants: Very strong with families, Hispanics and African Americans. Thor: Ragnarok in tracking has an enormous 85% in total awareness, 29% in unaided (those polled say it’s a movie they want to see without being prompted on the title, that number is huge), 61% definite interest, and 24% first choice (when you’re in the double digits at that level, that’s excellent).

 

[BigThor]

This will easily have a bigger opening weekend than IT.

 

[sycamore]

^^ Ignore that guy. All he does is bait folks in the Marvel threads. SMH.

Anyway, early tracking hitting (100-110) million three weeks out is excellent. Plus that first choice number is crazy good.



I'm positive that my (112-115) million early prediction will be achieved and it will be improved upon release.

I'm actually a Star Wars supremacist. I like to lord it over the lesser franchises t:

 

[BigThor]

I'm actually a Star Wars supremacist. I like to lord it over the lesser franchises t:

Is it really lesser though, Marvel Studios as a whole has pretty much caught up to a 40 year old Star Wars of not surpassed it in a measley 9 years.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Yes he does extremely well in a team setting, he seems to have an even bigger role in this film not to mention he TALKS now.

That's a fair point. Plus Disney has done a very good job of hyping up Hulk's appearance in the movie. The Thor-Hulk fight has been booked as an event within the movie. All of that will probably pay off.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I'm actually a Star Wars supremacist. I like to lord it over the lesser franchises t:

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Is it really lesser though, Marvel Studios as a whole has pretty much caught up to a 40 year old Star Wars of not surpassed it ina measley 9 years.

I love Star Wars to death but A. This...B. MCU doesn't have a block of films we wish never existed.

 

[BigThor]

That's a fair point. Plus Disney has done a very good job of hyping up Hulk's appearance in the movie. The Thor-Hulk fight has been booked as an event within the movie. All of that will probably pay off.

Yes even more than the Hulk vs Hulkbuster fight was hyped up in Avengers: Age of Ultron.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Is it really lesser though, Marvel Studios as a whole has pretty much caught up to a 40 year old Star Wars of not surpassed it ina measley 9 years.

Star Wars is bigger. Way bigger than any other franchise. Think about this, only one SW movie in the history of the franchise didn't end it's theatrical release year on top of the domestic list and it was still 3rd (AoTC). After it's revival, the 2 SW movies topped every other movie in their respective year.

The amount of revenue Disney made of TFA only in the domestic market is more than the entire domestic gross of the the 2nd biggest MCU movie plus the gross margin of profits that Disney most likely made of TFA can potentially bankroll the production budget of 2 and half Avengers movies. That tells you all.

 

[BigThor]

Star Wars is bigger. Way bigger than any other franchise. Think about this, only one SW movie in the history of the franchise didn't end it's theatrical release year on top of the domestic list and it was still 3rd (AoTC). After it's revival, the 2 SW movies topped every other movie in their respective year.

The amount of revenue Disney made of TFA only in the domestic market is more than the entire domestic gross of the the 2nd biggest MCU movie plus the gross margin of profits that Disney most likely made of TFA can potentially bankroll the production budget of 2 and half Avengers movies. That tells you all.

Marvel Studios IS the franchise not just The Avengers, you have the Guardians of The Galaxy movies, Captain America's trilogy, Iron Man's trilogy, Antman, Doctor Strange, The Thor films, PLUS The Avengers films.

 

[sycamore]

Is it really lesser though, Marvel Studios as a whole has pretty much caught up to a 40 year old Star Wars of not surpassed it in a measley 9 years.

TLJ will rectify all of that, I assure you. And Avengers (which I admit is great and am a fan of) won't have legs forever -- Chris Evans has said that Infinity War will be his final Captain America movie. Good luck replacing him.

I'm not going to even acknowledge the other Marvel dreck out there like Guardians of the Whatever, Thor, Defenders, Inhumans, etc.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Marvel Studios IS the franchise not just The Avengers, you have the Guardians of The Galaxy movies, Captain America's trilogy, Iron Man's trilogy, Antman, Doctor Strange, The Thor films, PLUS The Avengers films.

I included all of them. SW is still bigger than MCU and any other franchise.

In a level playing field with the exact same number of movies in either franchises will show that SW is ahead of MCU. Think about this, a SW spin-off that didn't feature the favorites from OT (apart from a fan service Vader cameo, Leia's small appearance right at the end shouldn't count) and included none of the new trilogy characters was still able to out-open all but 4 MCU movies and eventually finished with more than AoU, IM3 and CA:CW.

I want to see other franchises churn out spin-offs or any movie about obscure characters and still manage to do Rogue One numbers (532 million).

If we take into account the year end ranking, market share among other parameters, SW still reigns supreme.

 

[BigThor]

TLJ will rectify all of that, I assure you. And Avengers (which I admit is great and am a fan of) won't have legs forever -- Chris Evans has said that Infinity War will be his final Captain America movie. Good luck replacing him.

I'm not going to even acknowledge the other Marvel dreck out there like Guardians of the Whatever, Thor, Defenders, Inhumans, etc.

Let me know when Star Wars gives you a share of the profits.

 

[BigThor]

I included all of them. SW is still bigger than MCU and any other franchise.

In a level playing field with the exact same number of movies in either franchises will show that SW is ahead of MCU. Think about this, a SW spin-off that didn't feature the favorites from OT (apart from a fan service Vader cameo, Leia's small appearance right at the end shouldn't count) and included none of the new trilogy characters was still able to out-open all but 4 MCU movies and eventually finished with more than AoU, IM3 and CA:CW.

I want to see other franchises churn out spin-offs or any movie about obscure characters and still manage to do Rogue One numbers (532 million).

If we take into account the year end ranking, market share among other parameters, SW still reigns supreme.

Did Star Wars do all of this in less than a decade though, I'll wait.

 

[Finarfiniel]

Sorry guys, I'm failing to see what this has to do with Ragnarok's box office. Can this discussion be taken elsewhere? And can we also stop feeding the self-admitted troll?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Sorry guys, I'm failing to see what this has to do with Ragnarok's box office. Can this discussion be taken elsewhere? And can we also stop feeding the self-admitted troll?

I'll stop. I was just having fun with numbers, nothing else.

 

[BigThor]

I enjoy trolling the trolls, it's fun.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I enjoy trolling the trolls, it's fun.

Not sure about that statement, was I one of the trolls??

 

[BigThor]

Not sure about that statement, was I one of the trolls??

No not at all, I was talking about the other guy

 

[Blitzkrieg]

No not at all, I was talking about the other guy

I'm sorry that I misunderstood your post. For a fleeting moment I thought you were making fun of my 'fun' comment but I realize nao that you were most likely doubling up on it.