Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

What Will Be Thor: Ragnarok's Total Box Office Worldwide?

  • Over $1 Billion

  • $900 million to $1 Billion

  • $800 to $900 million

  • $700 to 800 million

  • $600 to 700 million

  • $500 to 600 million

  • $400 to 500 million

  • > (Less Than) $400 million

  • Over $1 Billion

  • $900 million to $1 Billion

  • $800 to $900 million

  • $700 to 800 million

  • $600 to 700 million

  • $500 to 600 million

  • $400 to 500 million

  • > (Less Than) $400 million

Results are only viewable after voting.
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Really interesting to see how big of an impact this Thursday previews will have. I suspect a ton of people are super ready to watch the movie and will try and see it as soon as possible. Today is the day, the first day of the domestic when you can kinda start getting a grasp for how big the OW will really be.

Thursday previews for MCU movies this year.

GOTG2 - 17M
Spider-Man: HC - 15.4M
 
HammerDown said:
Really interesting to see how big of an impact this Thursday previews will have. I suspect a ton of people are super ready to watch the movie and will try and see it as soon as possible. Today is the day, the first day of the domestic when you can kinda start getting a grasp for how big the OW will really be.

Thursday previews for MCU movies this year.

GOTG2 - 17M
Spider-Man: HC - 15.4M
Click to expand...
Some Opening Weekend/Thursday Preview ratios of recent MCU movies:

Released when schools were in session(this increases the ratio):
Age of Ultron 6.93x
Civil War 7.17x
GotG2 8.62x
Doctor Strange 9.05x

Released when schools were not in session(lowers the ratio):
Homecoming: 7.60x

Higher anticipation lowers the ratio(sequels are significantly more frontloaded in general), while word of mouth raises it. AoU and CW had huge anticipation, so their OW was more frontloaded even with good word of mouth. Meanwhile Doctor Strange had the benefit of not being a sequel which helped its ratio. After deducting Previews, GotG2 had the best internal multiplier in the entire MCU, so matching that 8.6x multiplier might be hard for Ragnarok.

I think a 8-8.5x multiplier would make sense, but of course nothing is set in stone and it could fall outside of that range. Since the ratio varies so much per movie, predicting the opening weekend based on nothing but the preview number is still very much a guessing game.
 
RT put Thor Ragnarok in the "Box Office" category a few minutes ago and had it at 12.4M. But then they took it out.
I guess it doesn't make sense to have that number at this point since the tickets are still being sold for this Thursday previews. So i have no idea what happened there. Maybe it was the amount the movie had gathered at the moment but it's still some solid hours before a real number can be figured out and i guess many more tickets will still be sold.
 
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HammerDown said:
RT put Thor Ragnarok in the "Box Office" category a few minutes ago and had it at 12.4M. But then they took it out.
I guess it doesn't make sense to have that number at this point since the tickets are still being sold for this Thursday previews. So i have no idea what happened there. Maybe it was the amount the movie had gathered at the moment but it's still some solid hours before a real number can be figured out and i guess many more tickets will still be sold.
Click to expand...
It's just a random glitch(that sidebar glitches out like that quite a lot). It doesn't mean anything. They don't even have access to those numbers.
 
https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/926114016111546369

China Box Office
@ChinaBoxOffice

THOR: RAGNAROK earned est. ?7.9M ($1.2M) from Thursday midnight screenings.
Click to expand...

Ragnarok is probably looking at my previous range of (95-105) million at the end of it's run. Great increase from TDW.
 
China Box Office

It's ok. $45-$50M opening weekend, $90-$95M total...
Click to expand...
https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/926115741597921280
 
For comparison in China.

Doctor Strange took in $780,000 on Thursday midnight previews.
Made 12.6M on Friday. Had a 44.5M OW. And a final total of 109M.

Thor Ragnarok already earned much more on Thursday midnight screenings.
We shall see how it behaves in the other areas. But it's definitely a promising start.
-------------//--------------

GOTG2 took in 880,000 in Thursday midnight previews.
Made 15.4M on Friday. Had a 48M OW. And a final total of 100M.
------------//--------------

Spider-Man: HC took in 1.3M in Thursday midnight previews.
Made 20M on Friday. Had a 70.3M OW. And a final total of 116M.

Thor Ragnarok has earned 1.2M in Thursday midnight previews. Very similar start.
 
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HammerDown said:
For comparison in China.

Doctor Strange took in $780,000 on Thursday midnight previews.
Made 12.6M on Friday. Had a 44.5M OW. And a final total of 109M.

Thor Ragnarok already earned much more on Thursday midnight screenings.
We shall see how it behaves in the other areas. But it's definitely a promising start.
-------------//--------------

Spider-Man: HC took in 1.3M in Thursday midnight previews.
Made 20M on Friday. Had a 70.3M OW. And a final total of 116M.

Thor Ragnarok has earned 1.2M in Thursday midnight previews. Very similar start.
Click to expand...


What i can analyse from this is that china seems to be way more frontloaded this year compared to the previous ones. But Thor does seem to have more fun action moments so if it can get to 60 to 70M OW in china, i think it has a shot of beating SM:HC's gross there.
 
I also added on my previous post the numbers for GOTG2 in China.
Thor Ragnarok is at the moment performing much better than both Doctor Strange and GOTG2. And at the level of SM:HC at least on Thursday midnight screenings.
 
BO update...November 2, 2017

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $000,000,000 / $109,086,216

I've included The Incredible Hulk since T:R is the closest thing we've gotten to a new Hulk film...
 
Just got back from the theatre, about half full....
Good flick overall....
 
http://deadline.com/2017/11/thor-ragnarok-a-bad-moms-christmas-huge-box-office-weekend-1202200942/

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Looking At Mighty $12M+ Thursday Night – Early B.O. Read

Disney/Marvel has done it again and are looking forward to another huge weekend. At this point in time, per Deadline sources, Thor: Ragnarok looks to be making between $12 million-$14 million tonight and on ComScore/Screen Engine’s Post Trak has earned a very rare 5 out of 5 stars from moviegoers. These box office figures do not come from Disney, and as we always footnote they’re subject to fluctuation. We’ll have an official update from the Burbank, CA lot in the morning.

Should Thor: Ragnarok maintain these Thursday night estimates, it will rank above the previews charted by November Marvel titles Thor: The Dark World ($7.1M) and last year’s Doctor Strange ($9.4M). In addition, Thor: Ragnarok‘s Thursday night would outstrip that of Guardians of the Galaxy ($11.2M), Captain America: Winter Soldier ($10.2M) and possibly even Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool ($12.7M).

Thor: Dark World‘s Thursday night repped 22% of its first-day haul of $31.8M before ending its weekend at $85.7M. Doctor Strange‘s Thursday night repped 30% of its first Friday, $31.6M, before posting a FSS of $85.06M. A full 30% of Guardians of the Galaxy’s $37.8M opening day came from its preview night. Should Thor: Ragnarok‘s Thursday night rep a third of its opening day, it could be looking at a $40M-plus Friday. Tracking has Thor: Ragnarok between $100M-$120M over three days.

Hulk-size PostTrak scores here for the Marvel threequel, which is the label’s third title to play November: Overall positive score of 88%, 28% of all moviegoers vow to see Thor: Ragnarok again in theaters, while another 29% say they’ll buy the film on Blu-ray. Definite recommend is an enormous 84%, with 45% saying the threequel exceeded their expectations. Men over 25 led all moviegoers at 45% followed by females over 25 (26%), men under 25 (16%), and females under 25 (13%). That latter demo loved Thor: Ragnarok the most with a 92% overall positive score.

Tonight’s crowd was split in regards to watching the movie in 3D. Fifty percent of attendees watched Thor: Ragnarok in 2D, 23% saw it on a PLF screen, while 24% sat in Imax theaters. At 94% fresh, Thor: Ragnarok owns the best Rotten Tomatoes grade in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Click to expand...
 
it had great # from previews here!

my showing was 100% full & the next seemed full as well. Its 2nd in the chart for Thorsday even just with previews!
Though Disney has awful release plan here b/c of their local film so the normal run starts only on Mon:whatever:
 
Calling it...Ragnarok is going to end its run having made over $300 million domestically, possibly even beat Batman V Superman and Spider Man Homecoming!
 
An 8.5 multiplier for this particular date for an MCU three-quel seems likely. If it finishes with 14 million in previews, Ragnarok's OW will be 119 million.

My last prediction of (117-120) million still looks good. But good turnout during matinee shows and strong walk-ups can still get Ragnarok to a higher total.
 
I hope and i think that strong early WOM will give this quite the OW. TR totally deserves it.
 
ChinaBoxOffice said:
THOR: RAGNAROK debuted on Friday with est. ¥108M ($16.3M), including midnight screenings @TaikaWaititi @thorofficial
Click to expand...
https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/926459133112528896

With those numbers it's heading for an opening weekend in the mid $50M range. As always China is an extremely frontloaded market so even a 2x multiplier is not easy to achieve. The reaction from the Chinese audience is better than Homecoming though(which had the lowest audience scores in the MCU in China), so it should be able to beat Homecoming's 1.7x multiplier there. GotG2 had a 2x multiplier with audience scores similar to Ragnarok's.

It looks like it has a good chance at passing the $100M mark in China. A big increase from The Dark World's $55.3M(which it has a chance at passing by Sunday) and more in line with other recent MCU movies.
 
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Forbes
'Thor: Ragnarok' Hammers Out Super ?110M/$16.6 Million China Debut

In China, Disney (NYSE : DIS) and Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok has echoed its performance last week in other overseas territories by thundering to an out-sized debut of a projected $16.6 million in its opening day on Friday, including $1.1 million in midnight screening grosses.

That’s a much more promising start than ticket presales numbers had indicated. The opening day’s final tally will come in at a roughly 5x multiple to presales, indicating that strong early word-of-mouth gave the picture a big boost with walk-up business.

Fan review site Maoyan.com had the Taika Waititi-directed, Chris Hemsworth-starring superhero movie at an average rating of 9.2, just a touch below American reviewers' exceptional rottentomatoes.com rating of 94 percent.

Guesstimating ahead to the rest of the weekend, Ragnarok could see a 40 percent bump on Saturday to ?155 million/$23 million, and a 25 percent drop on Sunday to ?115/$17.4 million, which would put its three-day opening weekend gross at ?380 million/$57 million.

That would be a heroic start for the sequel, more than the franchise’s prior entry, Thor: The Dark World, earned in its entire 30-day China run with $55 million in 2013. China's theatrical market size has grown two-and-a-half-fold since then, but Hollywood imports haven't generally kept pace, so a $100 million or more PRC total would be a boon for Disney. That's especially so because the Thor franchise has been one of the studio's weakest MCU properties in China.

Relatively weak competition should enable Thor: Ragnarok to flex its muscles up until mid-November. Saturday presales picked up momentum on Friday, putting some wind at the back of the picture's weekend grosses.

Up until Thursday, soft presales were pointing to a sub-$50 million weekend, but enthusiastic reviews and glowing word-of-mouth could push it toward $60 million, which would put it some 20 percent ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’s $49.7 million start in the Middle Kingdom back in May, and surprisingly close to Spider-Man: Homecoming’s $66 million opening frame in September.
Click to expand...
 
I think 53.8 million OW in China is pretty much locked with that 16.3 million OD.

Should improve from there if WoM is great. Ratings are top tier MCU. Bodes well for the OW and the legs.
 
Very good news from China. Strong word of mouth. The rating over there is also at the very top.
Should have a great OW and good legs.
 
I had a feeling this was going to do well in China with the type of crazy action it has.
 
Deadline

‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Hammers Mighty $14.5M Thursday Night – Friday AM Update

Writethru Friday AM of Thursday night post: Thor: Ragnarok has come in at the high end of the range we saw last night with $14.5M. Per Deadline sources, late yesterday we saw Thor: Ragnarok between $12 million-$14 million with ComScore/Screen Engine Post Trak audiences delivering a very rare 5 out of 5 stars.

Thor: Ragnarok ranks above the previews charted by November Marvel titles Thor: The Dark World ($7.1M) and last year’s Doctor Strange ($9.4M). In addition, Thor: Ragnarok‘s Thursday night outstrips that of Guardians of the Galaxy ($11.2M), Captain America: Winter Soldier ($10.2M) and even Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool ($12.7M).

Thor: Dark World‘s Thursday night repped 22% of its first-day haul of $31.8M before ending its weekend at $85.7M. Doctor Strange‘s Thursday night repped 30% of its first Friday, $31.6M, before posting a FSS of $85.06M. A full 30% of Guardians of the Galaxy’s $37.8M opening day came from its preview night. Should Thor: Ragnarok‘s Thursday night rep a third of its opening day, it could be looking at a $40M-plus Friday. Tracking has Thor: Ragnarok between $100M-$120M over three days.

Hulk-size PostTrak scores here for the Marvel threequel, which is the label’s third title to play November: Overall positive score of 90%, 30% of all moviegoers vow to see Thor: Ragnarok again in theaters, while another 31% say they’ll buy the film on Blu-ray. Definite recommend is an enormous 85%, with 45% saying the threequel exceeded their expectations. Men over 25 led all moviegoers at 41% followed by females over 25 (27%), men under 25 (16%), and females under 25 (15%). That latter demo loved Thor: Ragnarok the most with a 93% overall positive score.

Thursday night’s crowd was split in regards to watching the movie in 3D. Fifty percent of attendees watched Thor: Ragnarok in 2D, 23% saw it on a PLF screen, while 24% sat in Imax theaters. At 94% fresh, Thor: Ragnarok owns the best Rotten Tomatoes grade in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Click to expand...
 
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