Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

What Will Be Thor: Ragnarok's Total Box Office Worldwide?

  • Over $1 Billion

  • $900 million to $1 Billion

  • $800 to $900 million

  • $700 to 800 million

  • $600 to 700 million

  • $500 to 600 million

  • $400 to 500 million

  • > (Less Than) $400 million

  • Over $1 Billion

  • $900 million to $1 Billion

  • $800 to $900 million

  • $700 to 800 million

  • $600 to 700 million

  • $500 to 600 million

  • $400 to 500 million

  • > (Less Than) $400 million

Results are only viewable after voting.
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So at 8:14 Pacific time Variety calls it that Ragnarok will make $61.3 million for the weekend?

That's amazing and I really hope they haven't made a mistake.
 
In the matter of 2nd week drops I checked 23 other CBMs.....

all 6 SM
all 4 DCEU
all phase 3 MCU
last 2 Nolan Batmans
all of the recent XM movies

...of 23 movies only 4 dropped 50% or less.

Dr Strange -49.5%
ASM 1 -44.2%
WW -43.3%
SM 1 -37.5%

So if that prediction of 50% comes true Ragnarok is in some rare company as far as holding the audience the second weekend.

EDIT: went back and did the rest of the MCU movies. The only other two that held 50% of the audience were IM 1 and Thor 1

So of 33 CBMs I looked at only 6 held 50% and every single one was a "first" movie.

Ragnarok may be the only CBM sequel movie this century to hold half it's audience in it's second week.

Don't know what that signifies but it sounds cool.
 
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BigThor said:
Box Office: ‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Continues to Conquer With $61 Million
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Guess they forgot about the holiday. With that Friday number, I don't see how $61M is happening. Hoping for something like $56-58M, which would still be a solid hold for a sequel.
Krystal said:
In the matter of 2nd week drops I checked 23 other CBMs.....

all 6 SM
all 4 DCEU
all phase 3 MCU
last 2 Nolan Batmans
all of the recent XM movies

...of 23 movies only 4 dropped 50% or less.

Dr Strange -49.5%
ASM 1 -44.2%
WW -43.3%
SM 1 -37.5%

So if that prediction of 50% comes true Ragnarok is in some rare company as far as holding the audience the second weekend.

EDIT: went back and did the rest of the MCU movies. The only other two that held 50% of the audience were IM 1 and Thor 1

So of 33 CBMs I looked at only 6 held 50% and every single one was a "first" movie.

Ragnarok may be the only CBM sequel movie this century to hold half it's audience in it's second week.

Don't know what that signifies but it sounds cool.
Click to expand...
Friday was a holiday. Comparing the 2nd weekend drop with movies that didn't have a holiday on their second weekend is not a fair comparison. (Doctor Strange had the same thing, and ASM was "cheating" as well since it didn't open on a Friday)
 
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18.3M for Friday.
And apparently 24M for Saturday.

giphy.gif
 
Holding well in China too. Second weekend drop in China is about 60%(less if you don't include Thursday Previews). Even with Justice League taking a lot of screens next weekend, it has a good shot at reaching the 2x multiplier in China for about $110M in total. (and yes, reaching a 2x multiplier in China is an accomplishment with how frontloaded it is these days)

Will be interesting to see the updated Foreign total, and how close to The Dark World's worldwide total it is after Sunday.
 
iEquinox said:
Guess they forgot about the holiday. With that Friday number, I don't see how $61M is happening. Hoping for something like $56-58M, which would still be a solid hold for a sequel.

Friday was a holiday. Comparing the 2nd weekend drop with movies that didn't have a holiday on their second weekend is not a fair comparison. (Doctor Strange had the same thing, and ASM was "cheating" as well since it didn't open on a Friday)
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I don't think Friday was a true holiday for a lot of people. Maybe for federal employees and some schools but not the rest of us. It's not a true recognized holiday everywhere like Memorial Day or Labor Day.
 
hitmanyr2k said:
I don't think Friday was a true holiday for a lot of people. Maybe for federal employees and some schools but not the rest of us. It's not a true recognized holiday everywhere like Memorial Day or Labor Day.
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Looking at the numbers this week(and any previous year in box office history for that matter) makes it very clear that Veteran's Day has a big effect on the box office. Not as big as Memorial Day or Labor Day, but big nonetheless.
 
Ragnarok's Fri & Sat increases are much, much better than Doctor Strange even with inflated figures from the beginning and Deadline is still predicting a fantastic 38.3% drop on Sunday. That'll be an amazing 2nd weekend result for the movie. Damn, Ragnarok has been holding like a champ at the BO.
 
Official domestic estimate is $56,600,000. 53.9% drop from last weekend. Domestic total is up to $211,589,707.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017.htm

So nicely in the range I was hoping for based on the Friday number. Good hold. Next weekend is going to be interesting. It's facing a bigger drop(no holiday+direct competition from JL), but the question is how big. Thanksgiving weekend should mean it bounces back nicely after that though.

Foreign total has also been updated, up to $438,500,000, which is a very good number(already slightly ahead of The Dark World's final foreign total of $438.2M). Looks like it has some good legs in OS markets.

Worldwide total is up to $650,089,707, which means it has already passed Thor: The Dark World domestically, OS and of course worldwide as well.

BoxOfficeReport said:
Thor: Ragnarok grossed an estimated $75.9M internationally this weekend. International total stands at $438.5M, global total stands at $650.1M.
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https://***********/BORReport/status/929745669383888896

That $75.9M weekend number means it only dropped 50.6% from last weekend in Foreign markets. That's a great hold. $500M+ OS and $800M+ worldwide are pretty much guaranteed now, even with Justice League taking a bite into Ragnarok's legs next weekend.

BoxOfficeReport said:
Key international total grosses to date for Thor: Ragnarok include:

China - $95.2M
U.K. - $34.1M
Korea - $31.0M
Brazil - $24.4M
Australia - $20.4M
France - $17.7M
Mexico - $16.9M
Russia - $16.5M
Click to expand...
https://***********/BORReport/status/929746370608578560
 
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Wow !!!!! Those international numbers are amazing. 550 million+ in OS countries possible?? What's your take, iEquinox??

Not really a good comp but Vol 2 added 90 million after the 3rd OS weekend coming on the back off a 52 million weekend. Surely Ragnarok will manage better.
 
Forbes
Box Office: 'Thor: Ragnarok' Tops $200M Domestic And $650M Worldwide

Thor: Ragnarok earned $56.6 million in its second weekend of domestic release, bringing its ten-day domestic total to $211.6m in North America alone. That puts Thor 3 ahead of The Incredible Hulk ($132m), Captain America: The First Avenger ($176m), Ant-Man ($180m), Thor ($181m) and Thor: The Dark World ($206m). None of this accounts for inflation, but that may not matter too much in the end.

That 54% second-weekend drop is right in the healthier realm of “normal” for the MCU. It’s bigger than Doctor Stranger (-49%). But it’s smaller than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-55%), Thor: The Dark World (-57%), Ant-Man (-56%) and Spider-Man: Homecoming (-62%). Yeah, that second Friday being Veteran’s Day helped, but the surprising strength of both wide newbies makes this hold and this total, especially when coupled with a $122m opening weekend, squarely “very good.”

Unless the Chris Hemsworth/Tessa Thompson/Mark Ruffalo/Cate Blanchett/Tom Hiddleston/Jeff Goldblum action fantasy drops dead on Thursday night, we’re looking at a domestic total of around $295m (if it plays like Thor 2 after its second weekend) to $327m (if it plays like Guardians 2 after day ten).

Yeah, sure, I guess it could crumble into dust after Justice League opens, but A) I don’t see that happening at all and B) it is already big enough here and abroad that it’s already a big win for Disney and Marvel no matter how they sustain that challenge from those Super Friends.

Speaking of overseas, the $180 million sequel has earned well over $650 million worldwide. The film is now past every pre-Avengers MCU movie (along with Ant-Man and Thor: The Dark World) and on the cusp of passing Doctor Strange ($677m). At this juncture, a total over the $714m cume of Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy ($773m) is certain although (especially with Justice League on the horizon) a total over Guardians 2 ($863m) and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($879m) may be a bridge too far.

Or maybe not, as it should have close to $750 million global by next weekend. Nonetheless, it’s a big win if Thor: Ragnarok becomes Marvel’s third (out of three) 2017 release to top $800 million worldwide, with only one of those films having any Tony Stark at all. If we get into a situation where essentially every MCU movie for the next two years is going to top $800m global (and I’d like to think I’m underestimating Black Panther, if only out of fear of setting up unrealistic expectations), then, well, that’s a big deal.

Oh, and Pixar's Coco has already earned $41.4 million in Mexico, so that's more good news for the Mouse House.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/11/12/box-office-thor-ragnarok-tops-200m-domestic-and-650m-worldwide/#3c022c945fcd
 
hitmanyr2k said:
I don't think Friday was a true holiday for a lot of people. Maybe for federal employees and some schools but not the rest of us. It's not a true recognized holiday everywhere like Memorial Day or Labor Day.
Click to expand...

It wasn't.

I know I worked.
 
Blitzkrieg said:
Wow !!!!! Those international numbers are amazing. 550 million+ in OS countries possible?? What's your take, iEquinox??

Not really a good comp but Vol 2 added 90 million after the 3rd OS weekend coming on the back off a 52 million weekend. Surely Ragnarok will manage better.
Click to expand...
While the OS weekend number is bigger than GotG2's, GotG2 was entering summer and its weekdays were relatively strong at that point in comparison to Ragnarok, so that skews the weekend comparison a bit. It's also facing tougher competition next weekend, and a bigger portion of the weekend number is from China. So I'm not expecting it to get the same multiplier off of this weekend as GotG2 did.

Looking at Doctor Strange should be a better comparison. Its 3rd OS weekend number was $61.5M, and it had the same release slot, so weekdays should have more similar strength. Doctor Strange also faced Fantastic Beasts on the following weekend. While FB isn't as strong as Justice League domestically, it could be pretty close in foreign markets, since FB made $580M OS. Coco the weekend after that should also be similar to what Moana was for DS.

Doctor Strange ended with $428.7M in that set of markets(wasn't released in Japan yet). But it also had great legs in China(and pretty much everywhere), with a 2.5x multiplier in China(can't think of any recent CBM that reached that), so I'll adjust it down to $418M. So from that adjusted total, it got a 2.25x multiplier on its 3rd weekend. That same multiplier would give Ragnarok another $95M for an OS total of $533.5M.

So I'm expecting it to end somewhere around $530M. It's still hard to tell though, and $550M is still possible. Let's see how Justice League affects it next weekend.
JtheDreamer said:
It wasn't.

I know I worked.
Click to expand...
But it's still a holiday, and it has a pretty big effect on the box office, as you can clearly see every single year. Look at the numbers for Veteran's Day on boxofficemojo for previous years.
 
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Not sure why that $61+ was still being bandied about after the $18 Friday.In any case, this movie franchise either went out in style or made a great case for a fourth.
 
iEquinox said:
While the OS weekend number is bigger than GotG2's, GotG2 was entering summer and its weekdays were relatively strong at that point in comparison to Ragnarok, so that skews the weekend comparison a bit. It's also facing tougher competition next weekend, and a bigger portion of the weekend number is from China. So I'm not expecting it to get the same multiplier off of this weekend as GotG2 did.

Looking at Doctor Strange should be a better comparison. Its 3rd OS weekend number was $61.5M, and it had the same release slot, so weekdays should have more similar strength. Doctor Strange also faced Fantastic Beasts on the following weekend. While FB isn't as strong as Justice League domestically, it could be pretty close in foreign markets, since FB made $580M OS. Coco the weekend after that should also be similar to what Moana was for DS.

Doctor Strange ended with $428.7M in that set of markets(wasn't released in Japan yet). But it also had great legs in China(and pretty much everywhere), with a 2.5x multiplier in China(can't think of any recent CBM that reached that), so I'll adjust it down to $418M. So from that adjusted total, it got a 2.25x multiplier on its 3rd weekend. That same multiplier would give Ragnarok another $95M for an OS total of $533.5M.

So I'm expecting it to end somewhere around $530M. It's still hard to tell though, an $550M is still possible. Let's see how Justice League affects it next weekend.
Click to expand...

Excellent analysis. Thanks. :up: :up:
 
Krystal said:
Not sure why that $61+ was still being bandied about after the $18 Friday.In any case, this movie franchise either went out in style or made a great case for a fourth.
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Yeah, I don't know what they were thinking. Boxofficemojo made the same mistake as well in their Saturday update. Maybe they didn't get the memo about the holiday lol
Blitzkrieg said:
Excellent analysis. Thanks. :up: :up:
Click to expand...
Thanks
 
BO update...November 12, 2017...estimated

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $211,589,707 / $650,089,707

Wow - out just a few weeks world wide and already the top grossing Thor/Hulk movie to date!
 
56 million instead of 61 million....wack!

[YT]8ENmME9RoVg[/YT]
 
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