Praying that Ragnarok has strong enough legs to eventually stumble past the $900M mark, that would be so damn awesome. With JL failing as spectacularly as it has, I guess it's more possible now than it would have been if JL was a success...
Hmm. $900M seems extremely far-fetched.Yes. $900M is what's still 'possible'. I'm so hoping for at least $906M so the whole Thor franchise can join both Iron Man and Cap in surpassing the $2b mark in 3 films.
lol. And a billion is "just" another $262M, right? Let's not get carried away. All that leads to is disappointment, while there's no reason to be....just another $162 million to go...
Similarly JL would have deffo gotten more than $100M OW for sure (or even 120M ) if there were no superhero movies for a month or so.
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Hmm. $900M seems extremely far-fetched.
It would need a multiplier of over 4.5x on its worldwide weekend to reach $900M. OS multiplier will probably be roughly to 3x. With that, it would need a domestic 3rd weekend multiplier of 6.2x to reach $900M. No MCU movie has ever even gotten close to that, and I don't see Ragnarok pulling off that unprecedented feat either.
$850M is the realistic target. $900M is pretty much off the table.
Hope it gets too 800 it deserves it.
No, a 3x multiplier would mean $48.2M more. A movie that opens with $100M and gets a 3x multiplier doesn't add another $300M after OW; it ends with a $300M total.Off this last OS weekend? It made an additional $24.1M OS this weekend. A 3X would mean another $72.3M to come in from OS.
$90M more DOM seems awfully optimistic... That would be a 3rd weekend multiplier of over 5x... Only one MCU movie has ever done that(GotG), and that had incredible late legs. Matching that is a monumental task to ask for Ragnarok.That'd leave $90M to come in from DOM to make it to $900M. That's definitely on the high side of the way it's been ahead of GotGV2(11% ahead WW) but not all the way there(otherwise it'd have $98M left DOM).
I don't think it would have made another $5M this weekend without JL. That would have been a 53% drop coming off of a holiday weekend on which it dropped 53.5%...More unlikely than not, I'd agree but I've give it only about 40% chance of doing it at this point which is far from dire. I give it about a 60% chance of passing $850M, a 50% even chance of reaching SM:H to round out those guesses. I think this weekend's DOM was clearly impacted by JL strongly. TR should have made another $5M easy without such direct competition.
Again, it would need 5.1x, not 4.1x, to do this. And only one MCU movie has ever accomplished that before. And that one had insane late legs. 13 out of the previous 16 MCU movies did not reach a 4x 3rd weekend multiplier, let alone 5x+.I believe it will more or less recover, especially with the help of the holiday coming up. It'll need a DOM multiplier off this weekend of around 4.1X to accomplish this. That's a stretch, sure but my fingers are crossed. That'd give a final DOM total of $337M.
It really doesn't. But anything in the $800Ms is great anyway, and it's going to pass $800M comfortably.With Thanksgiving weekend, it definitely has enough steam to reach $900 million worldwide.
I have already accounted for a sub-25% drop for Ragnarok next weekend domestically. This doesn't change that Ragnarok won't reach $900M... I'd love if it did, but it just won't. All logic points to this coming in under $900M.Justice League is dropping like a rock next weekend because of Coco, which is spectacular. Meanwhile, Thanksgiving will give Ragnarok a boost.
I'd say it could still go past $315M(I'm careful about throwing around words like "ceiling"), but aiming at $310M for now. Let's see if it can keep up with Doctor Strange's domestic drops going forward(which would put it at pretty much exactly $310M).iEquinox, what is domestic ceiling at this point in your opinion? Like $315 million maybe? Less or possibly more?
Homecoming is nearly $4.5M ahead of Ragnarok after the 3rd weekend, and that's after Ragnarok opened $5.7M higher than Homecoming did. So Ragnarok has already lost over $10M on Homecoming since opening weekend, even with Ragnarok being helped a bit by a small holiday(Veteran's Day) while Homecoming was not.
It's clear which one of the two has more momentum at the domestic box office at the same point. Homecoming's 3rd weekend number is even slightly ahead of Ragnarok's 3rd domestic weekend, and Homecoming was still going in July, with very strong weekday numbers in comparison. Domestically, I really can't see Ragnarok finishing ahead of Homecoming.
A film's multiplier is its total box office divided by its opening weekend. So if a movie ends with a $300M domestic total after a $100M opening weekend, its multiplier is 300/100=3x. That number is the main way how legs are defined. The higher the multiplier, the better the legs.Can someone please explain in layman's terms what a 'multiplier' is. I see the term on SHH all the time and have no idea what it means, or more accurately how it works.
I wouldn't say $300M is locked, but it looks likely. It needs a 3rd weekend multiplier of at least 3.4x. Nine out of the previous 16 MCU movies achieved this. Thanksgiving holiday should help Ragnarok's odds of making it.hoped the JL bombage would help TR more
anyway lets wait for Thanksgiving
is 300m DOM locked btw or can TR miss it?
In other news TR passed TDW in local currency here but b/c of *** exchange rates not in dollars
With Thanksgiving weekend, it definitely has enough steam to reach $900 million worldwide.