🇮🇷 The Iran Thread II

[Axl Van Sixx]

To be honest...i'm not shedding over tears over the assassination...I doubt most of the world is either. I think people are sick of Iran.

How wonderful for you. But I'm sure the scientist's family, and his young son who now has to grow up without a father, feel differently.

This undated photo released by Iranian Fars News Agency, claims to show Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who they say was killed in a bomb blast in Tehran, Iran, on Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012, next to his son. (Credit: AP)

Glenn Greenwald:

That the targeted assassination plot aimed exclusively at the Saudi Ambassador was “Terrorism” was the automatic, unexamined, consensus claim from major media outlets, foreign policy experts, and the U.S. Government. Indeed, the accused defendants were formally charged with “international acts of terrorism” notwithstanding that it was to be a targeted assassination of a Saudi official. If anyone disputed this characterization, it escaped my notice, and I pay close attention to debates over the Terrorism label. Very few people, if anyone, objected at all when this allegedly Iranian plot was repeatedly denounced as Terrorism.

But now that it’s widely believed that some combination of Israel and the U.S. are behind the ongoing plot to serially extinguish Iranian scientists — see here, here and here for just some of the evidence suggesting that — it’s suddenly improper, even outrageous, to suggest that this is Terrorism. That’s because the U.S. and Israel are incapable of committing Terrorism, by definition. Terrorism is only something done to those countries and by Muslims, not the other way around (the list of examples proving this to be true is extensive indeed).

Does anyone have any doubt whatsoever that if Iran were sending hit squads to kill Israeli scientists in Tel Aviv, or was murdering a series of American scientists at Los Alamos (while wounding several of their wives, including, in one instance, shooting them in front of their child’s kindergarten), that those acts would be universally denounced as Terrorism, and the only debate would be whether the retaliation should be nuclear, carpet-bombing, or invasion? As always, Terrorism is the most meaningless — and thus most manipulated — term of propaganda; it’s always what They do and never what We do.

Go ahead, answer the question in bold, then tell me with a straight face that killing Iranian scientists is not terrorism.

 

[Destructus86]

I think there is a big difference between terrorism and government sanction hits.
Terrorism is the act of a radical group in order to PROMOTE FEAR. Assassinations are controlled, SANCTIONED attacks ordered by a chain of command. The primary goal of a military operation is typically not to create fear, but another motive entirely.

If we start calling sanctioned attacks as terrorism, then we may as well call any military action terrorism. Which is just silly. People throw around the word terrorism so easily nowadays. sheesh.

 

[Destructus86]

How wonderful for you. But I'm sure the scientist's family, and his young son who now has to grow up without a father, feel differently.

Emotional reactions don't matter in the big picture. His father was helping build devices of death.

 

[Destructus86]

And just incase anyone forgot already...Iran's ruler is a mad man who not only supports genocide, but denies the holocaust ever took place. Do you really want someone like that playing with nukes?

 

[Pagan]

And just incase anyone forgot already...Iran's ruler is a mad man who not only supports genocide, but denies the holocaust ever took place. Do you really want someone like that playing with nukes?

Oh you're going to to run with the "he wants to wipe Israel off the map" meme again? that misinterpretation has been debunked so many times you should be ashamed to rehash it.

He said Israel needed a regime change. Not that he wanted to kill every Jew alive. Quit lying. and on the nukes point. Honestly I'd trust Iran with them as much as I'd trust Israel. Israel is the biggest aggressor (besides the US) in the region. And more likely to use them because they know the US will back them up.

 

[Pagan]

I think there is a big difference between terrorism and government sanction hits.
Terrorism is the act of a radical group in order to PROMOTE FEAR. Assassinations are controlled, SANCTIONED attacks ordered by a chain of command. The primary goal of a military operation is typically not to create fear, but another motive entirely.

If we start calling sanctioned attacks as terrorism, then we may as well call any military action terrorism. Which is just silly. People throw around the word terrorism so easily nowadays. sheesh.

So you're saying that a govt cannot commit acts of terrorism? That's not what international law says. What if Iran directed some agents to take out some critical Israeli scientists with a car bomb? Do you really believe it wouldn't be called an act of terror?
Has Israel claimed responsibility? You know why they haven't because they've broke international law... again. Not that it matters. They have their lapdog US govt to make sure the UN can't do a damn thing about it.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Emotional reactions don't matter in the big picture. His father was helping build devices of death.

Okay, so by your logic, Iran would be perfectly justified in assassinating Israeli or American scientists engaged in weapons research?

One of these Iranian scientists was shot in the neck outside his daughter's kindergarten. Are you seriously going to tell me that if some American father was gunned down in front of his daughter's school, you would brush it off with "emotional reactions don't matter in the big picture. Her father was helping build devices of death"?

Fat chance. Like the American media, you'd be going on and on about how this was an act of terror/criminal act/act of war by the Iranian government. Of course, when the shoe's on the other foot, no big deal, right?

You should be embarrassed by your ability to so blithely dismiss the tragic human consequences of a government targeting and killing civilians.

P.S. Kudos to Pagan. Great posts.

 

[mikey1974]

serious question to all you gys (and gals) :

Do you honestly think there's any way to avoid a physical conflict between the US,Israel, & Iran at this point? or have we gone to far down the road of assassinations,nuclear facility construction,flaming rhetoric,terrorist acts,and spiking oil prices to turn back?

and,for the record,i'm on no one's side...i sure as hell don't trust the current Iranian regime to to "never" use any nuclear power they achieve in an aggressive,threatening way some day...on the other side, i can't deny the US has pushed Iran into a corner,which didn't need to happen,due to our "need" to control all the mideast oil....and Israel is it's own entity,and can never do no wrong in the eyes of the West,no matter how often they do bad things...

 

[Hobgoblin]

Anything can happen but I dont see war as inevitable. What we've been hearing between the US and Iran is saber rattling, not a prelude to war. We do this every once in a while with North Korea, too. Things get tense but diplomacy and cooler heads prevail. I dont see anyone doing anything unless it can somehow be proved that the US or Israel is behind the scientist assassinations. I dont think that is likely.

 

[Raiden]

serious question to all you gys (and gals) :

Do you honestly think there's any way to avoid a physical conflict between the US,Israel, & Iran at this point? or have we gone to far down the road of assassinations,nuclear facility construction,flaming rhetoric,terrorist acts,and spiking oil prices to turn back?

and,for the record,i'm on no one's side...i sure as hell don't trust the current Iranian regime to to "never" use any nuclear power they achieve in an aggressive,threatening way some day...on the other side, i can't deny the US has pushed Iran into a corner,which didn't need to happen,due to our "need" to control all the mideast oil....and Israel is it's own entity,and can never do no wrong in the eyes of the West,no matter how often they do bad things...

I don't have an answer to this question, but I do know that with the massive deficit and after tangled in two wars (Afghanistan and Iraq), the United States have their hands tied when it comes to starting another war again, unless they don't mind taking on another trillion dollars in debt. But Israel will not stay idly by if they really believe that Iran is in the process of developing a nuclear warhead, and they will do whatever they can to make sure it will not happen.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

The powers that be in the United States and Israel want regime change in Iran no matter what. For all intents and purposes they're at war with Iran already, given the crippling economic sanctions (which can only be enforced through the American navy) and supporting terrorist acts inside the country.

At this point, I honestly think there are only two things that could prevent war with Iran:

a) Revolution, either in Iran, Israel or the United States. The current governments in the USA and Israel are so dominated by the military, and influenced by either the Israel lobby (in the States) or hardcore Likud elements, that I don't see either changing course from their current trajectory towards war. Revolution in Iran, of course, would change the picture completely and the West would shift its focus to ensuring the new government is in line with its own interests.

b) Iran demonstrating it already has the capability to build a nuclear weapon. There's a reason North Korea has been handled far more delicately than Iran in international diplomacy, and it's nuclear capability.

Funny...the U.S. and Israel might not attack Iran if it has a nuclear weapon. I just can't imagine why the mullahs would want one.

 

[mikey1974]

do you think Russia will be the x-factor in this situation? we already know they have agreements and contracts and such with Iran...if Iran closes the Strait,and we go in there with our aircraft carriers and frigates and start firing missiles, would Russia come to the defense of it's "partner"? or would they let Iran burn? we know Putin longs for the return of the Russian Bear , would he be willing to actually get into an armed conflict with the West to help Iran?

****,man,that movie "Countdown to Looking Glass" would become real!!!

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

do you think Russia will be the x-factor in this situation? we already know they have agreements and contracts and such with Iran...if Iran closes the Strait,and we go in there with our aircraft carriers and frigates and start firing missiles, would Russia come to the defense of it's "partner"? or would they let Iran burn? we know Putin longs for the return of the Russian Bear , would he be willing to actually get into an armed conflict with the West to help Iran?

This is just another reason why war with Iran would be so dangerous. It might not remain a mere regional conflict, but could escalate out of control into war between the great powers.

I don't think Putin would risk war with the West, but attacking Iran would probably drive Russia into the arms of China, setting up a de facto alliance against NATO and the West. And really, at this point, would you blame them? The United States and Israel are by far the biggest threats to global peace and "stability".

 

[mikey1974]

This is just another reason why war with Iran would be so dangerous. It might not remain a mere regional conflict, but could escalate out of control into war between the great powers.

I don't think Putin would risk war with the West, but attacking Iran would probably drive Russia into the arms of China, setting up a de facto alliance against NATO and the West. And really, at this point, would you blame them? The United States and Israel are by far the biggest threats to global peace and "stability".

honestly,at this point ,this is what scares me the most.... Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, the US going in guns blazing , Russia and /or China coming to Iran's aid, and weapons being exchanged between the US and Russia.... Welcome to World War III !!

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

honestly,at this point ,this is what scares me the most.... Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, the US going in guns blazing , Russia and /or China coming to Iran's aid, and weapons being exchanged between the US and Russia.... Welcome to World War III !!

This is why politics shouldn't be left to the "experts", because the so-called experts don't know ****. If the last 10 years have taught us anything, it's that ordinary people would run society better than the elitist know-nothings we're constantly told are the best and the brightest.

 

[Pagan]

Excellent article in Foreign Policy on Israeli sponsored terrorism


Buried deep in the archives of America's intelligence services are a series of memos, written during the last years of President George W. Bush's administration, that describe how Israeli Mossad officers recruited operatives belonging to the terrorist group Jundallah by passing themselves off as American agents. According to two U.S. intelligence officials, the Israelis, flush with American dollars and toting U.S. passports, posed as CIA officers in recruiting Jundallah operatives -- what is commonly referred to as a "false flag" operation.

The memos, as described by the sources, one of whom has read them and another who is intimately familiar with the case, investigated and debunked reports from 2007 and 2008 accusing the CIA, at the direction of the White House, of covertly supporting Jundallah -- a Pakistan-based Sunni extremist organization. Jundallah, according to the U.S. government and published reports, is responsible for assassinating Iranian government officials and killing Iranian women and children.

 

[Hobgoblin]

Iran Warns Other Gulf States Against Increasing Oil Exports If the Straight is Closed; Saudi Arabia Says Its Not Intimidated

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/16/us-iran-idUSTRE80F0Z520120116

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia on Monday expressed doubts over Iran's claim it could block the main oil shipping route out of the Gulf and made clear it was ready to pump more oil after sanctions threatened to cut Iranian sales of crude.

Brent crude rose above $111 on concerns about global oil supplies if sanctions freeze OPEC's second biggest producer out of the market or push it towards military conflict, while Saudi Arabia said it would work to stabilize the price at $100.

Israel, which has often said it could strike Iran to stop it developing nuclear weapons, called for tough new sanctions against Tehran to stop its nuclear program.

But it said that for sanctions to work effectively, all countries must join in - a subtle swipe at Russia and China which oppose the latest Western moves.

"Iran must be stopped and the good news is that Iran can be stopped with economic and diplomatic means once the entire international community gathers together with effective sanctions," Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told the BBC.

Tehran has been under a growing array of U.N. and unilateral sanctions for years, but a U.S. bill that President Barack Obama signed into law on New Year's Eve went far further than previously, aiming to stop countries paying for Iranian oil.

The European Union - Iran's second biggest oil customer after China, buying some 450,000 barrels per day of its 2.6 million bpd exports - is also expected to agree to embargo Iranian oil at a foreign ministers meeting on January 23.

The measures go far further than U.N. sanctions agreed by China and Russia and have helped cause a currency crisis in Iran where dollars are now a scarce commodity for Iranians seeking a safe haven for their vulnerable rial-denominated savings.

DANGEROUS

The new sanctions prompted Iran to threaten to close the Gulf to oil trade if it was prevented from selling its oil and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's senior military adviser reiterated Iran would act decisively to protect itself.

"Iran would use any tools to defend its national interests, if it was exposed to any dangers," Major-General Yahya Rahim-Safavi said, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency.

Israel - reputed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal - said such talk was more evidence of the need to act quickly against Tehran.

"A nuclear Iran would mean a new world order where a very dangerous terroristic regime has impunity and also can control oil flow and oil prices," Ayalon said.

U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey is to make his first visit to Israel on Thursday. Israeli media say he will try to persuade his hosts not to "surprise" Washington on Iran.

Saudi Arabia, Iran's main rival for influence in the Middle East which would play a key role in replacing Iranian oil in he event of an embargo, played down Tehran's talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane for Gulf exports.

"I personally do not believe that the Strait, if it were shut, will be shut for any length of time. The world cannot stand for that," Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told CNN.

"I don't think all these pronouncements are helpful to the international oil market or to the price of oil. It's really disturbing."

Iran's warning to its Gulf Arab neighbors not to raise oil output to replace its crude appeared to have fallen on deaf ears. Naimi said Riyadh could increase production by about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) "almost immediately."

"Our wish and hope is we can stabilize this oil price and keep it at a level around $100," Naimi said.

The leader of China, Iran's biggest oil customer was in Abu Dhabi on Monday, on a six-day tour of the region where he hopes for greater access to its huge oil and gas reserves.

Although Beijing opposes further international sanctions on Iran, it has already cut its purchases of Iranian oil by more than half for the first two months of this year.

A senior Iranian oil official denied reports that Iran's exports to Asia were already suffering due to the intensified sanctions pressure, saying contracts were bring renewed on schedule.

In addition to the confrontation with the United States over sanctions, Iran has accused it of being behind the latest murder of a nuclear scientist, blown up by a bomb attached to his car last in Tehran week, a charge Washington denies.

Parliament speaker Ali Larijani said "some people have been arrested" in connection with the assassination, the fifth such killing in the last two years.

Larijani gave no further details but told state-run Arabic language al Alam TV Tehran was ready to deal with sanctions.

"We are prepared for oil sanctions and have different scenarios, but we would not announce them in order to avoid alerting our enemies," he said.

(Additional reporting by Peter Griffiths in London; Writing by Robin Pomeroy; Editing by Giles Elgood)

 

[Marvolo]

honestly,at this point ,this is what scares me the most.... Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, the US going in guns blazing , Russia and /or China coming to Iran's aid, and weapons being exchanged between the US and Russia.... Welcome to World War III !!

If we and Russia get into a firing match it will be nuclear. There won't be WWIII. There will be nuclear winter and human death on a possible extinction level. We two powers have enough nuclear weapons to destroy this planet 8 times over.

 

[mikey1974]

now comes this new situation...

What will Iran be willing to do to stop Saudi Arabia from producing more oil to help the West? think they'll actually attack ?

the other thing is this - as stated in the article Hobgoblin posted : would the world be willing to let Iran close the Strait ?

 

[Pagan]

now comes this new situation...

What will Iran be willing to do to stop Saudi Arabia from producing more oil to help the West? think they'll actually attack ?

the other thing is this - as stated in the article Hobgoblin posted : would the world be willing to let Iran close the Strait ?

Iran would probably hit Iraq's oil production facilities. And there's a good chance that it could escalate. with Pakistan, N Korea and quite possibly Venezuela choosing sides. It could get really ugly,really quick because oil is something no country will do without.

 

[mikey1974]

i have to admit,this whole situation is starting to unnerve me....seems like neither side is willing to back down ,and just when it reaches a new level,then one side ups the ante to take it to a new level (i.e. we prepare new sanctions - Iran says it'll close the Strait....Saudi Arabia promises to amp up oil production to meet demand, Iran throws out a warning to them)...

considering we're talking about oil,the lifeblood of the corporate world and governments, who knows how far this may go.... i honestly haven't been this worried about a conflict potentially going global (if not nuclear) since the 80's...

 

[Hobgoblin]

I did find it interesting that while China is not supportive of new sanctions, they have significantly cut their imports of Iranian oil. Ditto the EU being supportive of the sanctions. Iran is going to get jumpy over that.

Looks like Jan 23 will be an interesting day.

 

[mikey1974]

well,China's PM was in Saudi Arabia just a few days ago,and suppossedly,some sources say, the Crown Prince pretty much mixed business with pleasure,attempting to reduce China's dependence on Iranian oil,and take more from Saudi Arabia...

could be interesting to see if this rattles iran a bit,if true...could they potentially lose a key ally?

 

[Marvolo]

Why dont we produce our own oil at home, in the USA that is? Why not tell Iran to kiss our ass produce here and their threat to close the straight doesn't cost us oil.

 

[mikey1974]

cause the environmentalists won't let us....and all the foreign oil companies have their hands in the government,so we'll never truly be free of them...cause in the end it's not about what's good for the country,but about how much money they can get from the lobbiests