2022 Midterm Thread: Red Wave or Blue Wave

[DJ Kornphlake]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Daily Kos - Kari Lake goes full bananapants, calls herself the 'duly elected governor' of Arizona (liberal blog)

 

[squeekness]

Daily Kos - Kari Lake goes full bananapants, calls herself the 'duly elected governor' of Arizona (liberal blog)

Oh, please.... just get over it already, Kari.

 

[Teelie]

This is what happens when election-deniers are allowed to run for office... when they inevitably lose it's because someone "stole" the election from them. If you can't lose fairly you think you can win by lying, cheating and stealing to gain it instead? Fortunately the courts aren't that conservative yet.

 

[mclay18]

I do think there is going to be a huge electoral blowback to MAGAs controlling the House for the next two years -- and I think it'll transfer to the R Senators up for re-election.

The blue wave's starting to build for 2024.

 

[squeekness]

I do think there is going to be a huge electoral blowback to MAGAs controlling the House for the next two years -- and I think it'll transfer to the R Senators up for re-election.

The blue wave's starting to build for 2024.

I certainly hope this happens. It's going to depend on how useless McCarthy's House ends up being.

 

[InCali]

I do think there is going to be a huge electoral blowback to MAGAs controlling the House for the next two years -- and I think it'll transfer to the R Senators up for re-election.

The blue wave's starting to build for 2024.

The senate map sets up poorly for Dems in 2024, but you never know. By any reasonably thinking person, the Dems should have maybe 200 seats in the house. The senate map was advantageous for the Dems last year.....bottom line is that it's going to depend on how childish these right wing idiots act. I suspect on debt limit issues, enough "moderate" repubs will understand that shutting down the govt and not paying bills is a stone cold loser,,

 

[Sithborg]

The senate map sets up poorly for Dems in 2024, but you never know. By any reasonably thinking person, the Dems should have maybe 200 seats in the house. The senate map was advantageous for the Dems last year.....bottom line is that it's going to depend on how childish these right wing idiots act. I suspect on debt limit issues, enough "moderate" repubs will understand that shutting down the govt and not paying bills is a stone cold loser,,

Its just kind of frustrating. We have 3 super vulnerable spots, and honestly, when your looking at the most likely pickups in Texas and Florida, its just...daunting. Indiana and Missouri if your are insanely hopeful?

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Challenge: Daily Kos - Live coverage: The big special election in Virginia that could halt the GOP's plans to ban abortions

The Verdict: Daily Kos - Democrats kick off 2023 special elections with a monster red-to-blue flip in Virginia

 

[mclay18]

The Verdict: Daily Kos - Democrats kick off 2023 special elections with a monster red-to-blue flip in Virginia

Very happy about that. Rouse made abortion a cornerstone in his campaign, while the R campaigned on crime.

Guess the VA DeSantis is in for a beating in November. Because I think he’ll lose the House of Delegates at the rate he’s acting and the R clown show in Congress.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[squeekness]

The rest are still watching Fox news and Newsmax.

 

[Iceman]

Maybe this is a good thing if it can help the divisions continue longer. Don’t want everyone uniting behind De Santis.

 

[InCali]

Maybe this is a good thing if it can help the divisions continue longer. Don’t want everyone uniting behind De Santis.

IMO, if DeSantis beats out Trump for the nomination, he'd rather tear the party apart rather than be seen as a loser. He would complain about the process being "rigged" against him and take his voters with him in November. He'll either win the nomination, in which case a large segment of center right voters will not vote for him, or he'll lose and run a 3rd party campaign; splitting the republican party and breaking off his segment of far right, true believers.

 

[Iceman]

IMO, if DeSantis beats out Trump for the nomination, he'd rather tear the party apart rather than be seen as a loser. He would complain about the process being "rigged" against him and take his voters with him in November. He'll either win the nomination, in which case a large segment of center right voters will not vote for him, or he'll lose and run a 3rd party campaign; splitting the republican party and breaking off his segment of far right, true believers.

Either way works. As long as they don’t see common sense between the pair of them.

 

[InCali]

Either way works. As long as they don’t see common sense between the pair of them.

The republican party has created a conundrum for itself and Trump's ego is at the center of it. There are enough people who don't want the chaos he brings that he would have a very, very difficult time winning a general election. If he can't get to the general election as the nominee, he can't accept the concept that he lost. He could never bring himself to support someone who beat him.

A problem of their own making.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Philadelphia Inquirer - Democrats sweep special elections, affirming first Pa. House majority in 12 years
Democrats have won three special elections for Pennsylvania’s state House, which means they officially control the chamber after a month-long impasse with Republicans.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The New Republic - The Democrats Lost the House by Just 6,675 Votes. What Went Wrong?
At first glance, Democratic performance in last year’s House races was great. But a close look under the hood reveals that, with a few smarter moves and a little more luck, we’d have Speaker Jeffries.

Although almost no one realized it at the time, the 2022 elections for the House were the Capitol Hill version of George W. Bush versus Al Gore. Even by the standards of close elections, 2022 was off the charts. An analysis by Jacob Rubashkin in early December for the political tip sheet Inside Elections found that just 6,670 votes spread over five House districts would have kept the Democrats in the majority. (Final counts have changed that number to 6,675). For math mavens, that works out to be 0.006 percent of the more than 107 million votes cast in House races. According to Rubashkin’s tally, 22,378 of these votes in the right places would have prevented the Republicans from picking up a single seat in the House. So we are not talking about a normal election—this was the Democrats losing on a wild pitch in the tenth inning of the seventh game of the World Series.

 

[squeekness]

The New Republic - The Democrats Lost the House by Just 6,675 Votes. What Went Wrong?
At first glance, Democratic performance in last year’s House races was great. But a close look under the hood reveals that, with a few smarter moves and a little more luck, we’d have Speaker Jeffries.

That stinks.