Avengers 4 EndGame - early box office predictions.

[8ulk87]

Hello everyone.

Lets try to guess how much Avengers 4 is gonna gross worldwide at the boxoffice!

Anyone who has a clue about how boxoffice works and how these movie perform can tell you that there is no way in hell that Avengers 4 grosses less than 1 billion worldwide.

At this point even if its the single worst MCU film to date (which i doubt) it will 100% hit the 1 billion dollar mark.

Even if its totally mediocre Avengers 4 will outgross Civil War and Iron Man 3 which stand at 1,15 bil and 1,21 bil respectively. It will most likely outgross Black Panther (1,34 bil) and Age of Ultron (1,41 bil) as well.

The original Avengers movie which sits at 1,52 bil is probably the lowest target realistically speaking imho.

Something like 300-350 mil from USA , 200-250 mil from China and 500-600 mil from OS markets are basically a 100% guarantee and those numbers are extreme lowballs.

Avengers 3 Infinity War grossed 678 mil from USA , 359,5 mil from China and 1010 mil from OS markets for a total of 2048,4 mil worldwide.

Based on those numbers im gonna predict a 2,0-2,25 bil total , but i wouldnt be surprised if it ends up slightly lower or higher.

Basically i think it will go down like this.

US opening weekend 275 mil.
US total 700 mil.

China opening weekend 225 mil.
China total 400 mil.

OS total 1,1 bil

Worldwide total 2,2 bil.

 

[DrCosmic]

Great Analysis.

I'm gonna go 2.6 Billion, but this is dependent on great reception of Captain Marvel and that hype feeding into Avengers hype a few months later.

 

[Smurphftw]

I'm gonna be on the optimistic side and say it passes 2.25 billion.

 

[Darkprime]

1,75-2,0 billion seems like the safe bet. Despite the hype I think there will be a drop off. Very rarely do sequels do better than the original this might be an outlier though.

 

[NotNickFury]

Wouldn't this be better in the actual Avengers 4..well, forum?

 

[samsnee]

Yes

Avengers: Endgame Box Office (Poll is for second film only)

 

[Docker2.0]

I got $2.2 Billion. I think the last movie got the audience on the edge of their seats and everyone is looking forward to see how they come back. I think this is the rare movie that exceeds the original in terms of money and story.

 

[BigThor]

2.25 billion to 2.5 billion.

 

[chesslover]

1B for every time Brie Larson smiles in Captain Marvel

 

[Batmannerism]

2.25 billion to 2.5 billion.

I'm thinking the same. It will break 2 billion, last appearance of Chris Evans as Captain America will be a huge draw - plus AIW finished on possibly the biggest cliff hanger in film history.

No matter how Captain Marvel does, good, bad, happy or sad Endgame is going to set box office records.

 

[KBX]

Predicting the Big Hits at the Box Office in 2019 - IGN

Projected 2018 Domestic Box Office Top 10

• 1. Star Wars: Episode IX - $886.2 million
• 2. Avengers: Endgame - $824.7 million
• 3. Toy Story 4 - $658.2 million
• 4. Captain Marvel - $627.5 million
• 5. Frozen 2 - $548.7 million
• 6. The Lion King $438.9 million
• 7. Jumanji Sequel - $386.3 million
• 8. IT Chapter 2 - $356.8 million
• 9. Godzilla: King of Monsters - $318.4 million
• 10. Hobbs & Shaw: $306.2 million

These IGN predictions are ridiculously high

 

[harlequinade]

$627.5 million for CM

huh......

 

[Drizzle]

Predicting the Big Hits at the Box Office in 2019 - IGN

Projected 2018 Domestic Box Office Top 10

• 1. Star Wars: Episode IX - $886.2 million
• 2. Avengers: Endgame - $824.7 million
• 3. Toy Story 4 - $658.2 million
• 4. Captain Marvel - $627.5 million
• 5. Frozen 2 - $548.7 million
• 6. The Lion King $438.9 million
• 7. Jumanji Sequel - $386.3 million
• 8. IT Chapter 2 - $356.8 million
• 9. Godzilla: King of Monsters - $318.4 million
• 10. Hobbs & Shaw: $306.2 million

These IGN predictions are ridiculously high

I think they were especially too generous with their Star Wars prediction. After how divisive The Last Jedi was, I think it'll fall behind Avengers, The Lion King, and possibly Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4. but no matter what, I think they were right about Disney taking those first 6 slots. They will own 2019.

 

[Xeno]

$627.5 million for CM

huh......

Probably closer to $275 million. She's no Black Panther or even Wonder Woman.

 

[Silver Surfer]

IGN is way way off with those numbers, SW9 will be lucky to finish 3rd. A4 and TLK have the first 2 spots locked in, after that it is either Frozen 2, Toy Story 4 or SW9 for 3rd place. As for Cap Marvel, they are clearly expecting a cultural groundswell like BP, I doubt that happens to such a high extent especially since WW already siphoned that demographic by coming out first. 300m is a better expected domestic number for CM.

For A4:

OW: 278m
Domestic: 716m
OS: 1.45b

Worldwide: 2.15 - 2.2 billion

 

[Iceman]

IGN is way way off with those numbers, SW9 will be lucky to finish 3rd. A4 and TLK have the first 2 spots locked in, after that it is either Frozen 2, Toy Story 4 or SW9 for 3rd place. As for Cap Marvel, they are clearly expecting a cultural groundswell like BP, I doubt that happens to such a high extent especially since WW already siphoned that demographic by coming out first. 300m is a better expected domestic number for CM.

For A4:

OW: 278m
Domestic: 716m
OS: 1.45b

Worldwide: 2.15 - 2.2 billion

I get the feeling your OW and final dom figures will be right on the money. Although it depends on if they do a trailer that shows a hint of the scene with all the characters together. Without that, numbers may come in lower.

 

[Shoppy]

My prediction is that people will buy tickets and watch it and anything beyond that is pointless speculation about numbers that is of no interest to me.

 

[Frankeh]

3 billion

 

[Xeno]

Probably closer to $275 million. She's no Black Panther or even Wonder Woman.

I may have come in a little low on Captain Marvel. Early ticket sales are strong, according to Fandango, and there are some sellouts already. In my area, there are sold out showtimes, which I find shocking. Anecdotes =/= data, of course, but I'm inclined to think that there is more hype for CM than I previously believed. Legs are important when it comes to the box office performance of a film, but if CM can get past $100 million OW it may do better than I assumed.

 

[Kuwolski]

I believe the long range forecast for CM is coming out tomorrow. If not then soon after. That will give us a pretty good idea of industry expectations. It's usually on the low end and increases as the film approaches release, so even if the projection is 70 m then 100 m would not be impossible to reach.

It's also the #2 anticipated film in China this year. People seem excited for it in general. If the film ends up being well received it may just exceed the more modest expectations like my own.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Yeah I also think many are underestimating the hype for CM and the early ticket sales show it. Not saying it will be the next BP or anything, but I think the curiosity factor with it being heavily connected to both IW and Endgame combined with the fact that its the first Marvel female lead superhero film is what has the general audiences most excited for it IMO. No idea what its legs will be, but I can definitely see an OW close to or exceeding $150M.

 

[Iceman]

Predicting the Big Hits at the Box Office in 2019 - IGN

Projected 2018 Domestic Box Office Top 10

• 1. Star Wars: Episode IX - $886.2 million
• 2. Avengers: Endgame - $824.7 million
• 3. Toy Story 4 - $658.2 million
• 4. Captain Marvel - $627.5 million
• 5. Frozen 2 - $548.7 million
• 6. The Lion King $438.9 million
• 7. Jumanji Sequel - $386.3 million
• 8. IT Chapter 2 - $356.8 million
• 9. Godzilla: King of Monsters - $318.4 million
• 10. Hobbs & Shaw: $306.2 million

These IGN predictions are ridiculously high

I forgot to mention that in amongst those TLK might be on the low end! This year is going to absolutely clean up at the box office though.

 

[Silver Surfer]

First tracking numbers are in, and they are insanely big: 282 million OW.

“Star Wars” may have sputtered some, but “Avengers” looks to keep delivering big for Walt Disney Co.

“Avengers: Endgame,” the fourth film in the Marvel superhero series, is expected to set a weekend box-office record when it opens April 26. Researcher Exhibitor Relations predicts $282 million in North American ticket sales, topping the $258 million mark set last year by “Avengers: Infinity War.”

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Exhibitor Relations prediction: $282M Endgame first weekend
If $282M first weekend * 2.28 (CA:CW May multiplier) = $643M domestic
If $282M first weekend * 2.41 (A:AoU May multiplier) = $680M domestic
If $282M first weekend * 2.63 (A:IW April multiplier) = $742M domestic

MCU movie: Days to 90% domestic; first weekend multiplier (sorted highest to lowest)
[FIRST] Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug.): 43 days; 3.53
[FIRST] Black Panther (Feb.): 38 days; 3.47
[FIRST] Iron Man (May): 37 days; 3.23
[FIRST] Ant-Man (Jul.): 37 days; 3.15
[FIRST] Marvel's The Avengers (May): 35 days; 3.01
[FIRST] Spider-Man: Homecoming (Jul.): 36 days; 2.86
[SEQUEL] Ant-Man and the Wasp (Jul.): 31 days; 2.86
[FIRST] Thor (May): 26 days; 2.75
[FIRST] Doctor Strange (Nov.): 29 days; 2.74
[SEQUEL] Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Apr.): 30 days; 2.73
[FIRST] Captain America: The First Avenger (Jul.): 26 days; 2.72
[SEQUEL] Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Aug.): 30 days; 2.66
[SEQUEL] Avengers: Infinity War (Apr.): 30 days; 2.63
[SEQUEL] Thor: Ragnarok (Nov.): 29 days; 2.57
[SEQUEL] Iron Man 2 (May): 27 days; 2.44
[FIRST] The Incredible Hulk (Jun.): 23 days; 2.43
[SEQUEL] Thor: The Dark World (Nov.): 24 days; 2.41
[SEQUEL] Avengers: Age of Ultron (May): 26 days; 2.40
[SEQUEL] Iron Man 3 (May): 25 days; 2.35
[SEQUEL] Captain America: Civil War (May): 23 days; 2.28
average: 30 days; 2.76
first entry average: 33 days; 2.99
sequel average: 28 days; 2.53

Endgame only benefits from 1 year of higher average ticket prices versus 3 years of higher ticket prices which the previous two entries benefited from.

Annual Average U.S. Ticket Price

Average ticket price
2012 -> 2015 (+5.90%)
2015 -> 2018 (+8.07%)
2018 -> 2019 (+/- unknown but less boost than previous)

 

[8ulk87]

Early trackings are in the range of $265 mil opening weekend and a $695 mil domestic total.