Avengers 4 EndGame - early box office predictions.

[Xeno]

Early trackings are in the range of $265 mil opening weekend and a $695 mil domestic total.

What is your source?

 

[Kuwolski]

What is your source?

Here:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-avengers-endgame-tracking-for-titanic-265m-record-opening/

 

[Xeno]

Here:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-avengers-endgame-tracking-for-titanic-265m-record-opening/

Thanks! I kind of knew it had to be Box Office. The upper end of their range is equal to Exhibitor Relations' prediction. It will be interesting to see whether or not Endgame can approach the $300 million barrier. Frankly, that may not be possible for any movie, but the one most likely to make a run for it is Endgame.

 

[Zyraquis]

I forgot to mention that in amongst those TLK might be on the low end! This year is going to absolutely clean up at the box office though.

I would swap out Godzilla with Spider-Man 2 and give a discount of 20-30% to all figures.

 

[Iceman]

Thanks! I kind of knew it had to be Box Office. The upper end of their range is equal to Exhibitor Relations' prediction. It will be interesting to see whether or not Endgame can approach the $300 million barrier. Frankly, that may not be possible for any movie, but the one most likely to make a run for it is Endgame.

I’ve got a feeling of a $275m opening and a $700m+ gross. I’d be happy with $260m as long as it can leg it to that beautiful $700m number. Of course every extra level that the film delivers on, the potential raises that bit more. If this is the best MCU film of the lot then expectations would go even higher.

 

[InCali]

Exhibitor Relations prediction: $282M Endgame first weekend
If $282M first weekend * 2.28 (CA:CW May multiplier) = $643M domestic
If $282M first weekend * 2.41 (A:AoU May multiplier) = $680M domestic
If $282M first weekend * 2.63 (A:IW April multiplier) = $742M domestic

MCU movie: Days to 90% domestic; first weekend multiplier (sorted highest to lowest)
[FIRST] Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug.): 43 days; 3.53
[FIRST] Black Panther (Feb.): 38 days; 3.47
[FIRST] Iron Man (May): 37 days; 3.23
[FIRST] Ant-Man (Jul.): 37 days; 3.15
[FIRST] Marvel's The Avengers (May): 35 days; 3.01
[FIRST] Spider-Man: Homecoming (Jul.): 36 days; 2.86
[SEQUEL] Ant-Man and the Wasp (Jul.): 31 days; 2.86
[FIRST] Thor (May): 26 days; 2.75
[FIRST] Doctor Strange (Nov.): 29 days; 2.74
[SEQUEL] Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Apr.): 30 days; 2.73
[FIRST] Captain America: The First Avenger (Jul.): 26 days; 2.72
[SEQUEL] Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Aug.): 30 days; 2.66
[SEQUEL] Avengers: Infinity War (Apr.): 30 days; 2.63
[SEQUEL] Thor: Ragnarok (Nov.): 29 days; 2.57
[SEQUEL] Iron Man 2 (May): 27 days; 2.44
[FIRST] The Incredible Hulk (Jun.): 23 days; 2.43
[SEQUEL] Thor: The Dark World (Nov.): 24 days; 2.41
[SEQUEL] Avengers: Age of Ultron (May): 26 days; 2.40
[SEQUEL] Iron Man 3 (May): 25 days; 2.35
[SEQUEL] Captain America: Civil War (May): 23 days; 2.28
average: 30 days; 2.76
first entry average: 33 days; 2.99
sequel average: 28 days; 2.53

Endgame only benefits from 1 year of higher average ticket prices versus 3 years of higher ticket prices which the previous two entries benefited from.

Annual Average U.S. Ticket Price

Average ticket price
2012 -> 2015 (+5.90%)
2015 -> 2018 (+8.07%)
2018 -> 2019 (+/- unknown but less boost than previous)

What's a marketing report?

 

[darrenbevan1]

Avengers: Endgame spoiler free review here - At Darren's World of Entertainment: Avengers: Endgame: Film Review

 

[InCali]

I’ve got a feeling of a $275m opening and a $700m+ gross. I’d be happy with $260m as long as it can leg it to that beautiful $700m number. Of course every extra level that the film delivers on, the potential raises that bit more. If this is the best MCU film of the lot then expectations would go even higher.

I'm starting to think you might be a little low my friend. The 11am Friday showing I'm going to has already essentially sold out. The only seats available are in the 1st three rows of a theater that has an 86' screen (mind translating that in meters for me? .). This is going to be crazy big......I know my info is anecdotal, but this is different than even TFA and it had years of pent up fan interest.