Black Widow News and Speculation Thread

Discussion in 'Black Widow' started by Silvermoth, Sep 26, 2018.

  1. terry78 baby, that chicken was dry...real dry

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    I mean, I like BW but I could genuinely watch that streaming if it came down to it as it's more of a retro adventure with probably a couple stingers setting up phase 4. Now Eternals I could not feasibly watch like that.
     
  2. Kuwolski g r u n t - m a n

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    I don't buy it. The service just launched in NA five months ago and in western Europe (minus France) last week. France is now to come in the second week in April, India when the cricket starts (?), eastern Europe after that, and who knows when China happens? The global reach is microscopic compared to the theatrical distribution chain, so the revenue channels (and price points} are significantly less. I'd speculate that streamers across the board are close to a decade away from even considering this in any serious way, although shorter theatrical windows are likely to come much sooner. Now the virus may have sped up the process of this new reality behind the scenes, but not nearly this fast.

    If we are in this same place 6 months from now, then studios may be of the mindset that any revenue is better then none at all and be willing to accept the losses. Where I'd wager they try to make that up is with guaranteed subscriptions, ie, in order to stream BW on Disney + you need to sign up for a 5 year subscription package. That may even be part of a tiered system, where what you pay for the film determines how many years you're locked into a subscription package. So $20 dollars for BW requires a (new) five year package. Paying $40 dollars gets you locked in for two years, etc. Existing subscribers just pay $20 for the film with no further commitment (rewarded for being early subscribers), and/or get to extend their current plan at a discount with purchase. I'm obviously just spitballing here, but in order to make the move to streaming worthwhile at this point, the loss of revenue globally will need to come with future benefits, including a boost in stock price with such commitments and guaranteed revenue.
     
    #1377 Kuwolski, Mar 29, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  3. Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    There are a couple of ways to do this.

    1) Only people who sign up for a 12 month membership, get access to Black Widow.

    2) Subscribers to Disney+ pay $25 to view Black Widow once, subsequent viewings require another $25.

    On a billion dollar grosser, Disney would pocket a conservative 300-350m after theatre cuts with the 50/40/25 model. The biggest domestic PPV gross was $400+ million, at 69-90$ a buy with 4.6m buys in the US alone. At 25$ a pop Disney would have to sell 12 million buys worldwide to get to 300m. Good news is they don't have to share that with a distributor, and Disney+ already has almost 30m subscribers that can serve as a customer and advertising base.
     
  4. Kuwolski g r u n t - m a n

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    Likely closer to 40 m now with the quarantine and European launch.

    So $100 dollars a pop for a single person (or family) to view the film in the US once, more for people with exchange rates in other territories (film cost + yearly subscription cost). This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see options like different tiers. I certainly wouldn't over-complicate things, but it's a likely option. Using your example:

    $100 ( $25 for film + 1 yr. subscription $69.99) - additional $25 per film viewing

    $145 (film + 2 yr. subscription discounted $59.99 - $10 per year saving) -additional $25 per film viewing

    $175 (film + 3 yr. subscription discounted at $49.99 - $20 per year saving) - additional $25 per film viewing

    The benefits of getting people into the Disney + platform longer term ( and the option) is the saturation within the ecosystem. More user data to maximize spending, more long term stability for the platform (and stock), more spending in the flywheel (greater revenue across all businesses), etc
     
    #1379 Kuwolski, Mar 30, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
    Silver Surfer likes this.
  5. psylockolussus Spice Mutant

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    Well Disney has to release new movies in the cinemas when things eventually get better. They couldn't do that if the likes of Mulan/Black Widow, their biggest high profiled 2020 films are already out in streaming service.

    Eternals will most likely move to 2021 so as Raya, as the post prod for these films might be deeply affected as well. And their 2021 movies are delayed from filming and might not make it to theaters until 2022, so they would have nothing big to release for a period of time if they already released Mulan/Bw in D+.
     
  6. Kuwolski g r u n t - m a n

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    Believe me, I don't think streaming is a legitimate consideration at this point, the last post was basically a hypothetical. Disney will not throw away the unmatched revenue from a theatrical release, it's impact on merch sales globally, or the money from VOD before it eventually comes to Disney +. I think streaming is a last stand decision. More likely depending on how long the virus is a real danger, but still a long shot for major tentpoles.
     
  7. psylockolussus Spice Mutant

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    Yeah my post was directed to the ones saying that they should release this straight to streaming. Eternals and Raya will likely move to 2021, as I feel like they are already behind schedule due to this pandemic. Besides, Mulan/Black Widow, their next biggest high profile film is Jungle Cruise and its not even guaranteed to succeed. Soul might only slightly better than Onwards (it doesn't look very appealing). The rest of Disney's 2020 film slate don't sound impressive just like 20th Century's 2020 slate. Its not going to be beneficial to Disney to release Black Widow in D+.
     
  8. Filmfreak Registered

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    I surely am not going to watch it in cinemas but it should be released there. It was made for the silver screen experience, people want to watch it there and it would be better for the company financially.
     
  9. Mike Murdock Registered

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    The simpler solution, imo, is to release it on VOD and then streaming maybe three weeks later.
     
  10. psylockolussus Spice Mutant

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    People would watch the film when its safe to go to the theaters and when the theaters around the globe are open again. Its not like they delayed the movie and new movies are still coming out in theaters every weekend. Imo, they just need to give it time. After all, all 2020 movies are now being delayed eXcept for few films.

    Releasing it on vod, and streaming 3 weeks later, would just hinder Black Widow's potential success in theater screens and Disney wouldn't be able to maXimize all their options for getting back their $.
     
  11. Mysteryman Registered

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    They are not going to stream.this film.
     
  12. Silvermoth Avenger

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    Yes they are. Maybe not right away instead of at the movies but they will eventually
     
  13. legendkillin Registered

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    I don't think the streaming idea is all that good, they may get a few new subscribers and that is it. The moment they put it up it will be on one of the many torrenting sites. Might as well just wait it out and release it once all the lockdown and virus settles down.

    I still plan on seeing it in the theaters when they do decide.
     
    psylockolussus likes this.
  14. psylockolussus Spice Mutant

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    Plus most countries don't have Disney+.
     
  15. psylockolussus Spice Mutant

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    Imo, Disney should just move it to February. I feel like since its already delayed, they should maXimize the potential of making a profit out of this when people are ready to flock to the theaters. And yeah, this will eventually hit the streaming sites like all of their movies, but a theaterical release should be done 1st.

    2021
    January - The New Mutants
    February - Black Widow
    March - Mulan
    May - Eternals / Soul
    July - Raya and the Last Dragon
    November - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
    December - Avatar 2
     
  16. geetard Rebirth

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  17. AVEITWITHJAMON Darksider

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    I can have 4 different logins on Disney Plus, which I share with my family, if BW came on there £20, that’s 3 potential households that could watch it for that price, were as if we all went the cinema as a family it would be closer to £100.

    For me, Disney would be foolish to release on their streaming service.
     
    Speed Force and THORin like this.
  18. Silvermoth Avenger

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  19. Speed Force Goober

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    I'm starting to think Black Widow will get the Eternals slot in November with Eternals pushed to Feb '21, Shang-Chi's slot.
     
  20. Speed Force Goober

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  21. James.B In search of the absurd

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  22. flickchick85 Admin of Might

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    upload_2020-4-3_14-37-8.gif
     
    Speed Force, THORin and Snow Queen like this.
  23. THORin #StayHome

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    Well that’s disappointing.
     

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