Box Office 2015

[Rocketman]

You guys won't even be able to comprehend what happens this coming weekend, haha. I'm going on record and saying $250 million opening or higher.

 

[Wildcard]

And I'm going on record as saying I still think these $200+ million predictions are insane. Given the way it's shaping up, I bet that it falls short of JW'S opening weekend record but still does great numbers.

 

[Dark Victory]

And I'm going on record as saying I still think these $200+ million predictions are insane. Given the way it's shaping up, I bet that it falls short of JW'S opening weekend record but still does great numbers.

Want to elaborate? Just curious, needless to say very interested on how SW will perform like everyone else.

I have my doubts that it will open as well as JW or even the Avengers since it's close to the holidays and people tend to flock over the next several weeks than opening weekend.

Still, it's ****ing Star Wars, and the hype around TFA is undoubtedly huge.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Advance Ticket Sales Cross Historic $100M

 

[Sithborg]

Wow.

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Jurassic World $1669 million
2. Furious 7 $1515 million
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1405 million
4. Minions $1157,3 million
5. Inside Out $851,6 million
6. Spectre $821,4 million
7. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation $682,3 million
8. The Martian $589,3 million
9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $572 million
10. Fifty Shades of Grey $570,5 million
11. Cinderella $542,7 million
12. Ant-Man $518,6 million
13. San Andreas $473,8 million
14. Hotel Transylvania 2 $445,9 million
15. Terminator: Genisys $440,6 million
16. Kingsman: The Secret Service $414,4 million
17. Home $386 million
18. Monster Hunt $384,9 million
19. Mad Max: Fury Road $375,8 million
20. Taken 3 $326,5 million
21. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water $323,4 million
22. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials $311,5 million
23. The Divergent Series: Insurgent $297,3 million
24. Pitch Perfect 2 $287,1 million
25. Lost in Hong Kong $255 million

 

[:eek:]

Star Wars’ Path to Avatar’s Three Titanic Records

December 15th, 2015



Its Tuesday the 15th and you know what that means? It’s just a week away from the Steam Winter Sale!!! ... Also, Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens in just over 48 hours. Today we look at just how big The Force Awakens can be. Can it become the biggest hit of all time? If so, what path would it have to take to get there?
The three biggest records Star Wars: The Force Awakens is aiming for are the all-time domestic, international, and worldwide box office totals. At the moment, all three are owned by Avatar, which came out this time in 2009, a.k.a., the last time Christmas Day landed on a Friday. That will certainly have an effect at the box office next week, but it could also be a good omen for this film’s chances at cracking those records. If it does, what can we expect along the way? What could a record-breaking run look like?
First of all, there is some bad news for The Force Awakens. Despite early reports of an opening theater count of 4,500, which would have been the record, last week’s estimate was at just 3,900 theaters. That has now grown to 4,100, but it’s still far below the record. So why so few theaters (comparatively)? Apparently Disney has been rejecting theaters that are not up to their standards. George Lucas did the same thing with the prequels, so that’s not too surprising, but it will make reaching the opening day and opening weekend records harder. The opening day record seems more likely to fall, as there are reports of some theaters showing The Force Awakens, and only The Force Awakens, for the first full day. Not every theater is going to do that, but enough are giving the film preferential treatment that a $100 million opening day and a $250 million opening weekend isn’t out of the question.
Due to the fact that Christmas Day is landing on a Friday this year, Star Wars: The Force Awakens could have really strong legs throughout December. For instance, Avatar had the same benefit back in 2009 and it dipped just 2% during its second weekend. Granted, it didn’t have the hype The Force Awakens has. (Arguably no film has had the hype The Force Awakens has.) Additionally, Avatar was a 3D film back in the day when there were not a lot of those films in theaters. Even so, we could see a $225 million opening, followed by a $170 million sophomore stint and then a $125 million New Year’s Eve weekend. That would put The Force Awakens within $100 million of the all-time domestic record by the time 2016 starts. Given the lack of competition through most of January, it would finish north of $800 million.
That’s the high end of the domestic run for Star Wars. Its global opening is predicted to be anywhere from $500 million, which is just below the current record, to $650 million. You have to remember that this figure doesn’t include China, where it doesn’t open until (Chinese) New Year. An opening weekend of $400 million internationally should turn into $1.8 billion in the end, plus the $400 million the film is expected to earn in China, equals $2.2 billion internationally and $3 billion worldwide.
I’m not saying Star Wars will earn $3 billion worldwide, but that is the high end of its potential. And if that happens, someone is going to lose their job. Not at Disney, obviously, but every other major studio is going to have a discussion about how they let Disney buy both Marvel and Lucasfilm.
So that’s how The Force Awakens could end up being the biggest film of all time. But what does the lower end of the spectrum look like?
The lower end starts with disappointing reviews. Anything lower than 75% positive will be talked about as a miss. Anything lower than 60% positive and people will be bringing up Jar Jar Binks. The opening weekend will still be strong, because of all of the pre-sales, which already top $100 million, so a three-day total of $150 million will happen no matter what. Weak reviews will hurt its legs, sort of like what happened with The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. A 33% drop off on Christmas weekend followed by a 25% drop-off New Year’s Day weekend would put its on pace for just under $500 million. International markets would be hit a little worse, because they tend to have stronger legs, meaning word-of-mouth has more time to take effect. This would give the film a worldwide total of $1.5 billion.
Two points.

1. If the The Force Awakens earned $1.5 billion worldwide, it would the sixth biggest hit of all-time and it would still be a disappointment.
2. I read today that the film might need to earn $1.5 billion worldwide just to break even. That takes into account the movie production budget, marketing budget, and the cost of Lucasfilm amortized over the six films planned. $1.5 billion, just to break even... I’ll let that sink in for a bit.

As for the most likely scenario, I’m not bullish about the Star Wars’ chances to topple Avatar. That film had the perfect release date in terms of how much 3D films were able to draw in moviegoers over and over again. I put the odds of that happening at 25%. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it. On the other hand, the film has roughly a 50/50 chance to overtake Jurassic World domestically and Furious 7 internationally to become the undisputed biggest hit of the year. However, my opinion might change when the review embargo lifts at midnight.

 

[Rocketman]

Movietickets.com is saying $120 million for pre-sale SW tickets.

I think the crazy predictions were low. This could theoretically do a billion domestically if it wants to, for christ's sakes.

I'm going to say:

$260 million Opening Weekend
$800 million Domestic
$3 billion Worldwide
Biggest movie ever in all categories

^ Sounds absolutely ludicrous and impossible, but screw it. I'm all in.

 

[Rocketman]

You guys won't even be able to comprehend what happens this coming weekend, haha. I'm going on record and saying $250 million opening or higher.

^ So far it looks like I'm on my way to being right. 50+ million last night alone.

 

[Iceman]

Could end up with all the records! And some of them it is going to smash, not just beat.

 

[Sithborg]

This is nuts. It could very well be on the top 25 with just its domestic weekend. We are in the land of the unknown people.

 

[Iceman]

Nothing like it I've seen before!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Jurassic what, Harry who, Avengers huh?

The King has returned.

 

[Marvin]

What ever this film opens with, just remember it did so in the middle of december.
Given what was said about dec coming in by particular people...
this should be all the more impressive.

 

[rashad]

Jurassic what, Harry who, Avengers huh?

The King has returned.

Let's hope they keep the quality up.

 

[Tilapia]

And I'm going on record as saying I still think these $200+ million predictions are insane. Given the way it's shaping up, I bet that it falls short of JW'S opening weekend record but still does great numbers.

I don't think this guy is returning to this thread... just a thought.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think this guy is returning to this thread... just a thought.

No way. That isn't ridiculous in the least. It was balanced. It might end up wrong, but it was a fair way of looking at the situation. Never said it was going to crash and burn do to a lack of interest.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I wonder if Marvelites still think Civil War will close in on Star Wars.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I wonder if Marvelites still think Civil War will close in on Star Wars.

I want to have this discussion, but the AoU, Civil War and BvS box office threads don't seem to want to talk about Star Wars anymore.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Well, it is friday night.









They gotta put on their best blazer, pick up their friends and binge watch marvel movies. How else to spend a friday?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well, it is friday night.









They gotta put on their best blazer, pick up their friends and binge watch marvel movies. How else to spend a friday?

Reading the first few pages of the Star Wars box office thread is hilarious. A lot of, "Star Wars isn't relevant" anymore. And of course, you can guess what these people are a fan of.

 

[:eek:]

‘Star Wars’ Stomps On Dinos & Witch-Slaps ‘Potter’ As ‘Force Awakens’ Flies Toward $251M-$255M Opening Record

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

 

[Marvin]

I wonder if Marvelites still think Civil War will close in on Star Wars.

If Aou didn't why would they think so...

 

[Octoberist]

And I'm going on record as saying I still think these $200+ million predictions are insane. Given the way it's shaping up, I bet that it falls short of JW'S opening weekend record but still does great numbers.

haha

 

[Shifty]

No way TFA is getting anywhere near $700 million domestically. The fact that people still have their predictions set so high for this is incredibly laughable.

Looks like those predictions weren't high enough.

From Deadline:

7TH UPDATE Friday, 11:55 PM: Industry analysts currently see Star Wars: The Force Awakens with an opening day record of $125M-$127M+ en route for an all-time record opening of $251M-$255M, calculated from midnight tickets sales on both the east and west coast. To put Fans Line Up To Watch "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" In New York CityForce Awakens’ opening in perspective, consider the following: Disney made $100M from the film in just 21 hours at 1PM PST; an amount that most successful tentpoles open to in a 3-day weekend. By Sunday, Force Awakens will beat or come close to beating the entire domestic runs of the last two Hobbits which were released over the last two Decembers— The Desolation of Smaug ($258.4M) and The Battle of Five Armies ($255.1M). It took Jurassic World five days to cross $250M. Domestic all-time grosser Avatar, which opened during this frame back in 2009 to $77M and ended its stateside cume at $749.8M, took 12 days to clear $250M. However, that was during the pre-historic days of digital and 3D cinema. When Avatar opened there were 3,100 RealD screens in the U.S./Canada; now there are 14,000 with the majority of them playing Force Awakens.