Dawn of Justice vs Civil War vs Apocalypse

[StarLord]

lets hope both movies are crap. amirite?

Yeah. I hope they both fail miserably.

Spoiler

 

[Rowsdower!]

As for XMEN: Apocalypse - who knows - Brian Singer screwed up the first two in X-1 & X-2(debatable, but they do not hold up to the test of time in my opinion.) However he hopefully has learned from his mistakes, and DoFP is a sign of things to come..although I think that's only as good as it is because of how good first class was, we'll see if he can nail a good third one.

Funny thing about DOFP is that Matthew Vaughn recently claimed to have written about 90% of it. Then a week later, he comes out and says that people are tired of "dark" superhero films.

Umm, Matthew? Your last superhero film featured the X-Men getting slaughtered in the first five minutes and the rest of mankind getting enslaved. And yet the film still performed really well and received critical praise. So maybe people aren't tired of "dark" superhero films just yet.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

AoU - 1.1 B

BvS - 1 B

CW - 900 M

Fair enough.

I'd be surprised if each of these films didn't make at least 25% more global profit. Basically anything good or above in terms of quality and 1.2 billion is the floor for these films. For AoU I think 1.5 B is.

 

[Killer]

I believe these types of movies have already picked, and now the tendency will be to decline a little bit. Not only because people have seen a lot of it and the novelty factor is no longer there, wich always helped, but also because we´re seeing more and more and more comic book movies getting produced, wich might result in over-saturation. It has happened before with other genres. People are being too generous with their predictions, when they talk about numbers like 1.5 or 2 B dollars. I strongly believe none of these movies will go much beyond the 1 B dollar mark. And lets not forget that there are also other very appealing movies coming out, like Star Wars. People can only spend so much in movies, so they will always make choices. They won´t watch them all, and with so many big titles coming out, some of them, if not all of them, will naturally underperform.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I believe these type of movies have already picked, and now the tendency will be to decline a little bit.

I don't see that. Yet. Fox and DC's entry into the ring with their expanded universes could definitely burst the bubble sooner rather then later, but I don't think it'll come in the next few years (at least) barring consistent disasters. Marvel has great momentum at the moment and DC has a bit of the novelty thing going on, although MoS certainly didn't set the world on fire.

I realize that even if films are as good or better then their predecessors that it doesn't guarantee bigger $$$ (see Empire Strikes Back, SM2, etc.). That said, the market has expanded pretty significantly in the last 3 years and I don't see how franchises with great momentum (like the Avengers/Civil War, Guardians, et al) won't outdo what came before. It's definitely possible but I wouldn't bet on it at this point in time.

 

[Flint Marko]

Nobody said it wouldn´t make money. I just don´t see the first appearence of Batman and Superman on screen making any less money. Plus, people are putting too much faith into the new Avengers film making as much money or more as the previous, forgetting the previous had the big novelty factor attached to it. IM3 was also not everyone´s cup of tea. Lets see how can that affect future Marvel movies starring the character. Eventually, everything runs out of steam.

"Not everyone's cup of tea" made over a billion at the box office so clearly that did nothing to slow down Marvel's momentum. If anything it showed just how strong the Marvel brand has become, with or without this "novelty" you speak of. Note how every single one of their movies since then have easily grossed over half a billion plus, so the audience is clearly expanding and wanting more. AoU might not match up exactly to it's predecessor, but at this point it's a shoe-in for $1.3+ billion I'd say.
And then from there? That momentum will be carried straight into Civil War, which is basically Avengers Lite.
And I predict that when Marvel runs out of the steam, like you hint at in your post, the entire genre will be on the decline. I don't think we live in a world where MCU movies are dead and gone, but superhero movies as a genre are alive and well.

 

[Killer]

"Not everyone's cup of tea" made over a billion at the box office so clearly that did nothing to slow down Marvel's momentum. If anything it showed just how strong the Marvel brand has become, with or without this "novelty" you speak of. Note how every single one of their movies since then have easily grossed over half a billion plus, so the audience is clearly expanding and wanting more. AoU might not match up exactly to it's predecessor, but at this point it's a shoe-in for $1.3+ billion I'd say.
And then from there? That momentum will be carried straight into Civil War, which is basically Avengers Lite.
And I predict that when Marvel runs out of the steam, like you hint at in our post, the entire genre will be on the decline. I don't think we live in a world where MCU movies are dead and gone, but superhero movies as a genre are alive and well.

It doesn´t matter if it made over 1 billion dollars. The fact that the last 2 Iron Man movies weren´t particularly great might very well prevent the next movies starring the character from making crazy figures. And with this i´m not saying that the movies will lose money. I´m just saying that there is a very strong chance that neither CW or AOU will make 1.5 or 2 B dollars like so many people are suggesting.

We have 10 or more major SH movies coming out just in 2016. I´d be very surprised if any of those movies managed to make such figures. I don´t think it´s crazy to suggest that we might be approaching over-saturation, considering the amount of movies that have been made in the past years. And don´t forget that in many places the number of people spending money in movie theaters is decreasing very fast, year after year. The number of movie theaters is also decreasing. And i personally know several people who watched the first Avengers in theaters and won´t be watching the new one.

 

[Flint Marko]

It doesn´t matter if it made over 1 billion dollars. The fact that the last 2 Iron Man movies weren´t particularly great might very well prevent the next movies starring the character from making crazy figures. And with this i´m not saying that the movies will lose money. I´m just saying that there is a very strong chance that neither CW or AOU will make 1.5 or 2 B dollars like so many people are suggesting.

We have 10 or more major SH movies coming out just in 2016. I´d be very surprised if any of those movies managed to make such figures. I don´t think it´s crazy to suggest that we might be approaching over-saturation, considering the amount of movies that have been made in the past years. And don´t forget that in many places the number of people spending money in movie theaters is decreasing very fast, year after year. The number of movie theaters is also decreasing. And i personally know several people who watched the first Avengers in theaters and won´t be watching the new one.

It absolutely matters that it made over a billion dollars, the box office has only grown from the first Iron Man movie so that renders your point moot. It's fine if you didn't like them (you're clearly in the minority) but audiences vote with their wallet so for the time being, these movies are here to stay. There's no getting around that.
I don't disagree that 1.5 or 2 billion is quite a lofty goal, but to say that you "strongly believe" none of these movies will make much more than a billion sounds a lot like people back in 2011-2012 before the Avengers came out. "No way this breaks 800 million, no one cares about Thor or Captain America!".
Anyone who has been paying attention knows better than to underestimate Marvel. I have personally expressed doubts about either film breaking 1.5 billion, but it wouldn't shock me in the least.

 

[Killer]

It absolutely matters that it made over a billion dollars, the box office has only grown from the first Iron Man movie so that renders your point moot. It's fine if you didn't like them (you're clearly in the minority) but audiences vote with their wallet so for the time being, these movies are here to stay. There's no getting around that.
I don't disagree that 1.5 or 2 billion is quite a lofty goal, but to say that you "strongly believe" none of these movies will make much more than a billion sounds a lot like people back in 2011-2012 before the Avengers came out. "No way this breaks 800 million, no one cares about Thor or Captain America!".
Anyone who has been paying attention knows better than to underestimate Marvel. I have personally expressed doubts about either film breaking 1.5 billion, but it wouldn't shock me in the least.

That´s just if you assume that this tendency can´t retract. The fact that it grew doesn´t mean it will keep growing. I´ve seen it happen before. Everything has a limit. And i´m not saying they aren´t here to stay. I´m saying that it´s perfectly possible that they won´t make as much money as you think.

1.5 B is a lot. Many movies with way bigger fanbases than Iron Man weren´t able to come even close to that figure. The fact The Avengers made so much is amazing, but that´s a rare thing. I generally don´t bet on rare things happening over and over again. So i don´t think it will make that much money. And i think you will be surprised. I will bump this thread when the time comes.

Having said that, i will pay to watch all these movies. But as i said before, i´ve seen in first hand people losing interest in these series. And i´ve seen people losing interest in going to the movies in general. It´s expensive, the economy is very bad in some countries, and plenty of people just don´t have the money to drop on all these SH movies. In my social circle, i´m one of the very few people who actually pays for movies. And i remember this hasn´t always been the case. It´s just getting worse, year after year.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It reads like more "wishful thinking" on Killer's part then anything. Box office trends or recent/growing success for Marvel apparently mean nothing to him/her. It's too good to be true (or I don't like, therefore it is). The Avengers had insane legs but he knows some people who won't be going to see AoU in theaters.... So I guess it's only possible to lose fans, not gain any in his view. I won't be surprised if the domestic goes down for AoU, but the foreign will definitely go up. Even if the domestic drops 25%, I'd still bet on it making more the The Avengers in WW total.

Over-saturation is definitely a concern, but I would think that would hurt unproven brands much more then established ones.

I think he/she's just hurt that BvS isn't winning the pole.

 

[Flint Marko]

That´s just if you assume that this tendency can´t retract. The fact that it grew doesn´t mean it will keep growing. I´ve seen it happen before. Everything has a limit. And i´m not saying they aren´t here to stay. I´m saying that it´s perfectly possible that they won´t make as much money as you think.

1.5 B is a lot. Many movies with way bigger fanbases than Iron Man weren´t able to come even close to that figure. The fact The Avengers made so much is amazing, but that´s a rare thing. I generally don´t bet on rare things happening over and over again. So i don´t think it will make that much money. And i think you will be surprised. I will bump this thread when the time comes.

Having said that, i will pay to watch all these movies. But as i said before, i´ve seen in first hand people losing interest in these series. And i´ve seen people losing interest in going to the movies in general. It´s expensive, the economy is very bad in some countries, and plenty of people just don´t have the money to drop on all these SH movies. In my social circle, i´m one of the very few people who actually pays for movies. And i remember this hasn´t always been the case. It´s just getting worse, year after year.

The global market for movies is actually growing tremendously.

 

[Killer]

It reads like more "wishful thinking" on Killer's part then anything. Box office trends or recent/growing success for Marvel apparently mean nothing to him/her. It's too good to be true (or I don't like, therefore it is). The Avengers had insane legs but he knows some people who won't be going to see AoU in theaters.... So I guess it's only possible to lose fans, not gain any in his view. I won't be surprised if the domestic goes down for AoU, but the foreign will definitely go up. Even if the domestic drops 25%, I'd still bet on it making more the The Avengers in WW total.

Over-saturation is definitely a concern, but I would think that would hurt unproven brands much more then established ones.

I think he/she's just hurt that BvS isn't winning the pole.

Dude, this is prediction thread. I predict that the increase in the amount of SH movies coming out in the next 2 years will hurt some titles. That´s my prediction. I don´t see any of these movies making crazy figures. Get over it.

 

[Erzengel]

Age of Ultron is set up to succeed. I think even if it's marginally good, it can still do very well. It really has 2 weeks of no real competition before Mad Max comes out which may or may not take away from it's box office.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Dude, this is prediction thread. I predict that the increase in the amount of SH movies coming out in the next 2 years will hurt some titles. That´s my prediction. I don´t see any of these movies making crazy figures. Get over it.

I have nothing to get over, dude, I'm not the one who came in here and gave the ABC's of how "Hollywood works" while critiquing "predictions" and people's opinions for making those "predictions". So how 'bout you take your own advice if you are that sensitive.

Everyone is on record so we can revisit this thread in December 2016 and see how everything fell.

 

[Flint Marko]

Dude, this is prediction thread. I predict that the increase in the amount of SH movies coming out in the next 2 years will hurt some titles. That´s my prediction. I don´t see any of these movies making crazy figures. Get over it.

But you really haven't put forth a compelling case for this. You also ignore the fact that the global market is extremely lucrative right now and the Marvel brand is more popular than ever.

 

[Killer]

In 2012 Batman was also more popular than ever and we didn´t see the movie making the crazy figures that many expected. And the growth of the market doesn´t invalidate the possibility of over-saturation.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Age of Ultron is set up to succeed. I think even if it's marginally good, it can still do very well. It really has 2 weeks of no real competition before Mad Max comes out which may or may not take away from it's box office.

The reason I think BvS will make more then Civil War is less competition. Even if it isn't as good.

 

[Flint Marko]

The reason I think BvS will make more then Civil War is less competition. Even if it isn't as good.

I feel extremely confident in saying BvS will outgrows Civil War, it's almost a sure thing in my eyes. I think CW will be a better movie overall but more folks will see BvS.

In 2012 Batman was also more popular than ever and we didn´t see the movie making the crazy figures that many expected. And the growth of the market doesn´t invalidate the possibility of over-saturation.

No ones saying its out of the realm of possibility, but you've been acting as if it's a sure thing. You speak with such confidence that these movies will disappoint but ignore the fact that there isn't much to really support your argument.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

IAnn 2012 Batman was also more popular than ever and we didn´t see the movie making the crazy figures that many expected. And the growth of the market doesn´t invalidate the possibility of over-saturation.

No, but s p e c u l a t i o n doesn't supercede the fact that foreign markets are growing. At this point it's about which argument is more concrete.

Even if over-saturation occurs, to what degree?? And it may not unfold the way you envision.

 

[Killer]

I feel extremely confident in saying BvS will outgrows Civil War, it's almost a sure thing in my eyes. I think CW will be a better movie overall but more folks will see BvS.


No ones saying its out of the realm of possibility, but you've been acting as if it's a sure thing. You speak with such confidence that these movies will disappoint but ignore the fact that there isn't much to really support your argument.

My confidence is in no way shape or form bigger than yours. I´m simply not betting on any of these movies making huge figures. I never said they can´t. What i actually said is that there´s a strong chance that they won´t, based on several different factors that i already mentioned. And you haven´t supported your opinion any better than i´ve supported mine. "The last movies did great, so the next movies will do even greater". That´s really not a very strong argument, if you take into account a little bit of movie history.

And i will repeat what i already said before: I´m not saying these movies can´t make 2 B dollars. I just don´t predict they will.

I don´t know why Marvel fans are so bothered with my prediction. I´m really not saying anything different than what they are. They´re insisting the movies will do great, and i´m insisting they won´t. That´s all. No need to call me up on it

 

[Killer]

No, but s p e c u l a t i o n doesn't supercede the fact that foreign markets are growing. At this point it's about which argument is more concrete.

Even if over-saturation occurs, to what degree?? And it may not unfold the way you envision.

Exactly. It may not. Or it may. My prediction has no less value than yours.

 

[Flint Marko]

My confidence is in no way shape or form bigger than yours. I´m simply not betting on any of these movies making huge figures. I never said they can´t. What i actually said is that there´s a strong chance that they won´t, based on several different factors that i already mentioned. And you haven´t supported your opinion any better than i´ve supported mine. "The last movies did great, so the next movies will do even greater". That´s really not a very strong argument, if you take into account a little bit of movie history.

This is where I think you are sort of burying your head in the sand. The global market is growing tremendously, the Marvel brand is more popular than ever, and you're just expecting all that to slow down out of nowhere? Once again, based on what? What "factors" have you mentioned that should be taken seriously? All you've mentioned is hearsay from people around you and the possibility of over-saturation. That is not backing up your claims, it's denying what is directly in front of you.

And i will repeat what i already said before: I´m not saying these movies can´t make 2 B dollars. I just don´t predict they will.

I don´t know why Marvel fans are so bothered with my prediction. I´m really not saying anything different than what they are. They´re insisting the movies will do great, and i´m insisting they won´t. That´s all. No need to call me up on it

Hey now, I never said anything about these movies making 2 billion dollars. You're moving the goal posts; your original claim that I took issue with was you saying that you "strongly believe none of these movies will make more than a billion". You even predict AoU capping off at 1.1 billion. I'm calling you out on that because it's a pretty bold prediction that is, once again, based on nothing. Iron Man 3, a film you called lackluster earlier, made around that much money so to think the follow up to the third biggest movie of all time (featuring not just Iron Man but the rest of the team) will make that same amount, is ridiculous.

Exactly. It may not. Or it may. My prediction has no less value than yours.

If it's been raining all month, and all forecasts show it is going to be raining for the next week, why would I take you seriously if you think it's going to be sunny and 75 tomorrow? My prediction is based on multiple factors, yours is based on a gut feeling because you don't want it to rain. In this case my prediction is definitely more valuable than yours.
To back up your argument you need to show that the global market is shrinking (it isn't), the Marvel brand is losing steam (it isn't), or that there are a ton of superhero movies coming out in 2015 that are going to crowd the summer box office (there really aren't; the Avengers has no significant competition for 2 weeks, giving it half of the most lucrative summer box office month). The facts just aren't on your side here.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Exactly. It may not. Or it may. My prediction has no less value than yours.

My prediction is based more on concrete data, like growng markets, like how every Marvel film has grown in revenue from Phase 1 to Phase 2, like how AoU is the follow-up to the biggest CBM to date and will be the first film following Marvel's banner year of 2014. You know, trends, momentum. The MCU is a snowball getting bigger and bigger as it speeds down the hill. That's how an unknown property like GoTG can make more $$$ then Spider-Man and MoS. That and quality.

Meanwhile your prediction is much more based on pure speculation. That's not to guarantee that I'll be right and you'll be wrong, I just have more support to back my "predictions" then you have to back yours.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

We're pretty much on the same page Flint.

 

[Killer]

I never said none of these movies will make more than 1 B. You don´t even read what i write i actually predicted more than 1B for AoU.

You're just expecting all that to slow down out of nowhere?

You´re just expecting all those movies to keep growing and growing and growing, and breaking records after records, when that doesn´t usually happen for that long in the movie business? It´s not such a great prediction either.

What i´m expecting is for some of these movies to eventually slow down due to the increase of the number of super hero flicks being produced. And the marketing growing doesn´t mean the movies will keep breaking records. Even if the money is there, it doesn´t mean that it will go to the same place as it went past year.