Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[kedrell]

It would only need a 33% increase over the first film to hit $2b. Of course it could only do a TDK-to-TDKR style increase which is 8.1% and that would give it a $1.64b total.

 

[Lady Marion]

I expect 1.4 - 1.6 billion, but the more the merrier.

 

[8ulk]

^Dunno about that. 1.4 bil is an impossibility at this point due to the CRAZY China expansion.

Expect Avengers AOU to beat the total gross of the Original even if it does less Domestically.

Avengers did 84,1 mil in China
but the expansion(dozens of theaters built each week) lead to this

Iron Man 3 did 121,2 mil
Cap 2 TWS did 115,6 mil
TASM2 did 94,4 mil
X-DOFP did 116,5 mil
and even Edge Of Tomorrow did 65,7

Transformers 4 AOE did 301 mil recently. Yes it had a superheavy marketing campaign especially designed for China but Heavy Campaigns dont guarentee profits just like the TASM2 proved.

I would estimate a 200 mil total for A AOU and i wont be surprised AT ALL if it does 250-300 or more.

And assuming a reasonable 10% increase for the rest of the OS markets i would put the OS total north of 1 bil. Probably around 1,1 bil for a fair/modest prediction.

1,1 bil OS pretty much locks a 1,6 bil WW total.
And since i honestly believe DOM numbers to be at least on par with the original i would say a 1,75 bil WW is a safe bet.

If there is one franchise that can beat Avatars DOM record it would be the Avengers.
Since the JL doenst exist yet and Star Wars is on a bad spot due to the poorly received prequel trilogy.

And judging by the 2014 SDCC footage i would say this movie is gonna kick some ass quality wise.

 

[Iceman]

I think Avengers 3 will have a real shot at beating Avatar's domestic record. I wonder if any non-Avengers films have a shot at getting in the 5/600ms over the next 3/4 years.

 

[8ulk]

^ Well i think the answer is obvious. Not many movies have the 500+ mil or 600+ potential.

Avengers 2 & 3
Star Wars ep 8 & 9 (if ep 7 is good+)
Justice League (pretty much regardless of BvS unless its pretty terrible which is unlikely)
BvS may have a shot. we ll see when we get our hands on some footage. although i would bet on the 400-500mil mark.

and ofc Avatar 2.

other that that No other KNOWN movies that are on the horizon.

Maybe 1 or 2 surprises. i would bet on 0 suprises in the next 3/4 years.

 

[Iceman]

I'd agree with that. JL can get to Avengers levels but it will be difficult to get near that on the 1st attempt with almost no build up unlike Avengers which benefitted from a whole phase of films to set it up. If SW VII is good enough to get all the old guys interested who tuned out after the prequels it could be huge. Avatar 2 will struggle to match the 1st I think as it benefitted from a lot of one-off factors. But I'm sure Cameron will bring some whole new visula tech to the film to show us things we've never seen before.

 

[Flint Marko]

1.2-1.4 billion. I don't see this exactly capturing lightning in a bottle like the first one, but it will be undeniably huge. Next to impossible that this won't pass a billion. Then again, I usually skew conservative on these sort of things so I'd love to be wrong.

 

[eddy]

I'm pretty sure it will make at least a billion in foreign markets. It came pretty close to crossing 900 million. There will be no decrease internationally. Just look at the Transformers sequels, IM3, Thor2, and Cap2. They all increased internationally from the previous films

I think BOM originally had The Avengers at 888 million(ETA, I was right, see here) or something close to that in foreign grosses but in the 2 years since they've updated the film to show $895,237,000. A increase to a billion dollars is not that far fetched.

 

[Iceman]

The thing is I don't think it was a lighting in a bottle scenario like Avatar & Titianic. I think this is just a film franchise of that size now and will follow box office patterns of many other recent successful film franchises. There's no way Iron Man 3 could have so massively outperformed its own considerable franchise numbers and got 80% of the way towards Avengers' gross if this was lightning in a bottle. I think worldwide AoU will outdo the 1st and the 3rd will outdo AoU. I wouldn't say the same for Avatar.

 

[8ulk]

@ Iceman .Agreed on the Avatar 2. Has no realistic chance of even getting close to the 1st movie. Avatar opened significantly less than 100 mil. It just kept repeating over the weekends. Its a phenomenon that wont happen again anytime soon by any other movie.

Im pretty sure it wont even make 2 bil.

@ Flint Marko. 1.2-1.4 bil is simply IMPOSSIBLE. OS is guarenteed for 1 bil. DOM is guaenteed for 500 mil. i dont see how its making less than 1.5 bil. China will be AT LEAST double in gross which is 170 mil minimum.

@ eddy 1 bil for OS is not far fetched at all. even if the movie (for some weird reason ???) has a 5% drop on all OS markets China EXPANSION will make sure of the 1 bil. pretty simple. those Chinese...

For me 1.4 bil is the worst case scenario if all things that can go wrong will. I think its not that likely.

P.S. does anyone knows when the 1st trailer hits ? im pretty sure we wont get it in october. Feige said no time soon plus they have GotG still on the spotlight.
I NEED THE TRAILER...

 

[eddy]

I think October is likely if not November. It will definitely be in front of BH6, Interstellar, Mockingjay, and Hobbit3.

 

[Lilbaz]

I think that most people that would be interested in this type of film went to see the first one. I think it was good enough to see a slight increase probably. I'd say $1.2-1.4bn.

 

[TalismanRing]

I think that most people that would be interested in this type of film went to see the first one. I think it was good enough to see a slight increase probably. I'd say $1.2-1.4bn.

That would be a decrease. The first one made $1.518b

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=avengers11.htm

 

[harryoscop]

I still say 2 billion.

The last two Marvel movies have been hits, with GOTG being the highest grossing movie of 2014, and the highest grossing august movie of all freaking time!!

AOU is going to make 2 billion!

 

[Iceman]

This film will have a hell of a lot more appeal than IM3. Ultron Vs Mandarin as villain. 8 glorious teammates, 3 of which totally new, one of which is Vision!!! And IM3 made $1.2B 2 years ago.

 

[8ulk]

......

 

[8ulk]

Given the fact that all MCU films improved on their predecessors and GoTG blew expectations away its reasonable to assume Avengers AOU will improve too.

And even if it doesnt improve Domestically OS numbers guarentee for it to be on par with the 1st Avengers or even slightly improve.

Iron Man 3 imrpoved by 101% (from the average of IM1 & IM2)
Thor 2 TDW improved by 43,5%
Cap 2 TWS improved by 92,75%
and GOTG beat expectations by at least 40-50%


..so there is no reason whatsoever for A AOU not to improve. We all know OS will improve thnks to China alone but im willing to bet DOM will increase as well.

I see 1,75 bil as the safest bet. Im really hoping for 1,95 bil. And its plausible.
1.5 bil is also likely & im not ruling it out yet.
But anything under that is unlikely or even a total impossibility

The majority of this movie gross will be OS. and total WW number wont be affected by a 10-20% drop for Domestic numbers. A drop like that is irrelevant . OS will grow and will deminish such an effect.It will even out and still get to 1.5 bil total. (which i dont see why people are claiming it will happen ..???? because reasons ??)

 

[Iceman]

Yes the Avengers boost is a real thing. I think a lot of the general audience's awareness and interest for the whole MCU project went into orbit after Avengers and I know for eg work colleagues who didn't watch the prior films and generally had a low opinion of the genre were roped into seeing this one and were very surprised they liked it. And AoU will itself benefit from an Avengers boost lol.

 

[8ulk]

According to a Russian newsfilm site (FilmPro) the trailer for Avengers AOU will be attached to Nolan's Intestellar which hits theaters November 7th.

If thats true we could see the trailer a couple of days earlier online.

 

[Zoom]

Given the fact that all MCU films improved on their predecessors and GoTG blew expectations away its reasonable to assume Avengers AOU will improve too.

And even if it doesnt improve Domestically OS numbers guarentee for it to be on par with the 1st Avengers or even slightly improve.

Iron Man 3 imrpoved by 101% (from the average of IM1 & IM2)
Thor 2 TDW improved by 43,5%
Cap 2 TWS improved by 92,75%
and GOTG beat expectations by at least 40-50%

..so there is no reason whatsoever for A AOU not to improve. We all know OS will improve thnks to China alone but im willing to bet DOM will increase as well.

I see 1,75 bil as the safest bet. Im really hoping for 1,95 bil. And its plausible.
1.5 bil is also likely & im not ruling it out yet.
But anything under that is unlikely or even a total impossibility

The majority of this movie gross will be OS. and total WW number wont be affected by a 10-20% drop for Domestic numbers. A drop like that is irrelevant . OS will grow and will deminish such an effect.It will even out and still get to 1.5 bil total. (which i dont see why people are claiming it will happen ..???? because reasons ??)

What this guy said.

 

[DrCosmic]

2.1 Billion

I really don't imagine Avengers not getting a 25% increase in WW gross, considering that sequels, especially in this franchise generally receive much larger bumps. The main thing keeping AoU from getting a 100% increase is market saturation. This is, of course, barring something significantly abnormal happening to mar its reception. Possible, but a bit hard to imagine for me.

I imagine the domestic will increase maybe 50 mil or so, to get it close to 700M. Still not enough to beat Avatar, but an improvement of Avengers 1. I think the foreign gross will go from 900M to something in the neighborhood of 1.4 billion. Much less than Avatar, but a bit more than IM3.

 

[Iceman]

2.1 Billion

I really don't imagine Avengers not getting a 25% increase in WW gross, considering that sequels, especially in this franchise generally receive much larger bumps. The main thing keeping AoU from getting a 100% increase is market saturation. This is, of course, barring something significantly abnormal happening to mar its reception. Possible, but a bit hard to imagine for me.

I imagine the domestic will increase maybe 50 mil or so, to get it close to 700M. Still not enough to beat Avatar, but an improvement of Avengers 1. I think the foreign gross will go from 900M to something in the neighborhood of 1.4 billion. Much less than Avatar, but a bit more than IM3.

Saturation is certainly relevant for its US numbers I think but not for most of the overseas, particularly non-Western territories. Avengers overseas numbers are only a tiny bit more than Iron Man 3. I think there is room for crazy growth given how other franchise sequels have performed. I think Avengers is going to be a lot bigger than Pirates or Transformers when the overseas machine truly starts rolling. The difference between IM2 and IM3 is the post Avengers effect and this will really boost the sequel's returns outside of US. Although I am still also expecting huge US numbers, just that there isn't all that much room to grow.

 

[DrCosmic]

Saturation is certainly relevant for its US numbers I think but not for most of the overseas, particularly non-Western territories. Avengers overseas numbers are only a tiny bit more than Iron Man 3. I think there is room for crazy growth given how other franchise sequels have performed. I think Avengers is going to be a lot bigger than Pirates or Transformers when the overseas machine truly starts rolling. The difference between IM2 and IM3 is the post Avengers effect and this will really boost the sequel's returns outside of US. Although I am still also expecting huge US numbers, just that there isn't all that much room to grow.

Yeah, the foreign market is growing so fast, I have no idea what saturation looks like, only guess that saturation in 2015 will be significantly more than saturation was in 2009 when Avatar came out.

Can you imagine, Avengers AoU doing 3B worldwide? That'd be craaazy.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, the foreign market is growing so fast, I have no idea what saturation looks like, only guess that saturation in 2015 will be significantly more than saturation was in 2009 when Avatar came out.

Can you imagine, Avengers AoU doing 3B worldwide? That'd be craaazy.

I don't expect that much but I expect it to go a fair bit over $2B and I wouldn't call those kind of numbers crazy. $3B would be totally crazy though, might be possible for Avengers 3 though! If Avengers 2 is a very well received high quality film along with delivering the spectacular action scenes and visuals way beyond the 1st film I think things will keep getting bigger along with the natural overseas growth. I think the Phase 3 films would also need to be of at least the quality of Iron Man 1 & TWS if Marvel really want to see returns accelerating. Those films should be the minimum benchmark from now rather than the top level.

 

[8ulk]

May 2015 - Avengers AOU = 1,75 bil WW
May 2018 - Avengers Infinity p1 = 2,0 bil WW
May 2019 - Avengers Infinity p2 = 2,25 bil WW and Titanic sinks in 3rd place.