Justice League Justice League Box Office Prediction - Part 6

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]536609[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]536513[/split]

 

[Samuron]

So everybody is going to be wrong in this poll?

I think that jokesonm3 wins the no-prize for calling it pretty close a year and a half ago, on the very first page of this thread:

OW: $90M

DOM: $250M

INT: $350M

WW: $600M to $650M

Albeit the huge opening weekend of BvS thanks to pre-RT hype, that film is dropping laughably hard.

Justice League won't have a big opening anymore like BvS due to lack of confidence, and will have big drops unless Snyder delivers critically which i doubt it..

If Snyder returns then i'm confident the Justice League: Part One will gross less than Man of Steel. due to a bad opening weekend and bad legs, Snyder ain't gonna make a good film anymore.

 

[Flint Marko]

Wow... he nailed it.

 

[I Am The Knight]

GL was pretty expensive. They also put more money into it late into production to refine CGI.

 

[JOE]

That brave solider probably got eaten alive too after that post. Anyone have a link to it to see what others said? He probably got destroyed.

 

[Samuron]

That brave solider probably got eaten alive too after that post. Anyone have a link to it to see what others said? He probably got destroyed.

Just hit the arrow next to the "Originally Posted by jokesonm3"; it'll take you to it.

 

[gerrym51]

if the movie does 650 and WB gets 50 percent back thats obviously 325 million.

if making and marketing cost 450 thats obviously 125 million.

It then has to make 125 million from ancillary markets.

blu-ray and digital downloads and pay per view will be ? I actually think it will be quite high-from all the people who thought about seeing it in theaters but were disauded from reviews. I bet most fanboys will either pay per view to see it again or blu-ray/digital.

then ancillary markets worldwide.

the film is a box office dissapointment -but a financial disaster it is not

 

[Samuron]

if the movie does 650 and WB gets 50 percent back thats obviously 325 million.

if making and marketing cost 450 thats obviously 125 million.

It then has to make 125 million from ancillary markets.

blu-ray and digital downloads and pay per view will be ? I actually think it will be quite high-from all the people who thought about seeing it in theaters but were disauded from reviews. I bet most fanboys will either pay per view to see it again or blu-ray/digital.

then ancillary markets worldwide.

the film is a box office dissapointment -but a financial disaster it is not

The Numbers site gives about $75M in domestic video sales for BvS, and about $86M for Suicide Squad.

Could be pretty tight.

 

[Playco Armboy]

if the movie does 650 and WB gets 50 percent back thats obviously 325 million.

if making and marketing cost 450 thats obviously 125 million.

It then has to make 125 million from ancillary markets.

blu-ray and digital downloads and pay per view will be ? I actually think it will be quite high-from all the people who thought about seeing it in theaters but were disauded from reviews. I bet most fanboys will either pay per view to see it again or blu-ray/digital.

then ancillary markets worldwide.

the film is a box office dissapointment -but a financial disaster it is not

You're way oversimplifying this. WB doesn't get a flat 50% cut from box office receipts, it's lower.

Read this.

BvS made something like $100m profit with ancillaries.

JL has a $50m higher budget and is going to gross $200m less, meaning a $80-90m smaller intake by the studio. This is all assuming JL Blu-Ray and DVD sales are on-par with BvS', which it almost definitely won't be.

It's going to lose like $50m.

 

[Docker2.0]

I think that jokesonm3 wins the no-prize for calling it pretty close a year and a half ago, on the very first page of this thread:

Dang! I even think I gave him a hard time about it, and I'm more of a Marvel guy more than anything. No way could anyone see it like that. I actually thought he was trolling but man was his post prophetic.

 

[Flint Marko]

You're way oversimplifying this. WB doesn't get a flat 50% cut from box office receipts, it's lower.

Read this.

Yup. And even if it didn't somehow lose any money and WB broke even, it's still a something like a disaster when you realize how much time, money, and hype has been poured into this franchise.

 

[MbJ]

I cannot overemphasize how bad it looks that the ultimate culmination of their franchise to this point had the worst opening weekend of them all. That shows the brand has been damaged badly.

 

[Greenlite]

You're way oversimplifying this. WB doesn't get a flat 50% cut from box office receipts, it's lower.

Read this.

60% US and 40-50% foreign, up to 30% in China.

What was the 50M loss based on? 550M? 600M? 700M WW?

 

[fancyarcher]

This movie has done poorly no matter how you put it. Making less then 700m is embarrassing. Way to screw-up WB / DC.

 

[cristianegan]

 

[Playco Armboy]

60% US and 40-50% foreign, up to 30% in China.

What was the 50M loss based on? 550M? 600M? 700M WW?

LOL

More like 50% US, 35-40% OS, 25% China.

Based on $670m WW.

 

[Raiden]

LOL

More like 50% US, 35-40% OS, 25% China.

Based on $670m WW.

Movie studios in the US also take more money in the first few weeks, but theatres get a larger percentage of profit if the movie lingers in the screening instead of being replaced by other movies. That's why it's ultra important for a big budget movie like JL to make as much as possible early on, since WB will see lesser and lesser return in the upcoming weeks of release.

 

[Greenlite]

LOL

More like 50% US, 35-40% OS, 25% China.

Based on $670m WW.

Not sure what you're laughing at.

Depends on who you talk to and read from. Here's a quick search.

https://io9.gizmodo.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable?IR=T

The percentage of revenues that the exhibitor takes in depends on the individual contract for that film — which in turn depends on how much muscle the distributor has, according to Stone.

These deals often protect the theaters from movies that bomb at the box office by giving the theaters a bigger cut of those films. So if a film only makes $10 million at the box office, the distributor will get only 45 percent of that money. But if a film makes $300 million at the box office, then the distributor gets up to 60 percent of that money.

You can actually look at the securities filings for the big theater chains, to look at how much of their ticket revenues go back to the studios, points out Stone. So for example, the latest quarterly filing by Cinemark Holdings, shows that 54.5 percent of its ticket revenues went to the distributors. So as a ballpark figure, studios generally take in around 50-55 percent of U.S. box office money.

and you can get between 10-30% in China, should be getting more in the higher ends nowadays.

 

[Greenlite]

Movie studios in the US also take more money in the first few weeks, but theatres get a larger percentage of profit if the movie lingers in the screening instead of being replaced by other movies. That's why it's ultra important for a big budget movie like JL to make as much as possible early on, since WB will see lesser and lesser return in the upcoming weeks of release.

That's true

 

[Iceman]

JL definitely should have been the biggest number here.

 

[iEquinox]

Movie studios in the US also take more money in the first few weeks, but theatres get a larger percentage of profit if the movie lingers in the screening instead of being replaced by other movies. That's why it's ultra important for a big budget movie like JL to make as much as possible early on, since WB will see lesser and lesser return in the upcoming weeks of release.

This is the old model, it is not used much anymore. These days the theater's cut usually remains constant throughout a movie's run.

 

[Flemm]

The main question with JL isn't the precise financial outcome, whether it breaks even, loses some money, or even makes a little money, but the impact the disappointing result will have down the line.

It could impact what movies get made, and it could impact audience interest in whatever movies do end up getting made.

The overall downward trend of the DCEU box office since BvS is a bigger concern than the rest of it.

There aren't any franchises, to my knowledge, that are immune to audiences simply not liking them much, and deciding not to spend money on them gradually over time.

On the bright side, the overall success of comic book movies, and the recent financial windfall of Wonder Woman, estimated to have made the studio $300M+, makes it unlikely that the studio will give up on exploiting these properties.

But we are seeing the cumulative impact of poorly-received installments within a particular franchise: it might not be obvious right away, but it erodes audience perception over time.

 

[Juan1193]

Wonder Woman: added another 206 Million

Suicide Squad: added another 103 Million

Man of Steel: added another 81 Million

BVS: added another 70 Million

Going by that, JL's range is 240-250 Million, since I assume it'll perform more like BVS/MOS than SS or WW (her BO run was incredible!).

 

[MbJ]

But we are seeing the cumulative impact of poorly-received installments within a particular franchise: it might not be obvious right away, but it erodes audience perception over time.

Yup. It's like I said on another thread. Forbes Magazine literally called this over a year ago, saying that the poor reception to BVS was likely gonna cause a significant chunk of the audience to stay away from the sequel. For a year some of the more hardcore DCEU fans said that was nonsense and that the only people who didn't like BVS were critics and haters on the internet, and that general audiences loved it and would absolutely be back for the sequel. Now look at where we are.