Yeah, except by the end of the year it will have sold almost as many systems as the 360, so what's that say for Microsoft? Personally I think the first two years won't mean much as it is the hardcore fanbases. Most are staying away because the 360 and PS3 are TOO DAMN EXPENSIVE right now. Once the prices go down and more games come out then the war will be decided in a few years probably. EXCEPT if Wii manages to win over enough mainstream with their relatively cheap price and new gaming style, then developers will start making more games (and just not regular ports) for Wii. Then the market could change quite a bit.
BUT on the other hand maybe only the Nintendo hardcore will buy it and next holiday season it won't sell well and 3rd parties will desert it and it will die faster than Gamecube. Only time will tell. But this time Nintendo stands a chance, something I never said about Gamecube (or cared much about either though).
We'll see.