Rise of the Guardians

[TheBlueMcCoy82]

Wow, this was awesome! Loved this take on Santa and the Easter Bunny. lol Best animated film of the year. And yeah sadly looking at boxofficemojo.com today, looks like its not doing so good at the box office. Which is unfortunate because a sequel to this would work great. :/

 

[Ultimatehero]

I wouldn't leap at box office results, I did too, but it seems most of these films open with 30 million or under. So, if this gets just over 30 million it will actually be the best opening for a christmas movie actually. And with word of mouth and strong reviews, looking at strong holiday legs. Christmas movies are more strong legs over December movies. So 30 million or over 30 million is actually good for Christmas movies.

 

[danoyse]

I love it when these movies are actually worth seeing in 3D. Just saw this tonight, I thought it was great. Definitely darker than I expected, but not too dark, and it was a really great story. The action sequences were pretty fantastic too.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm surprised this movie isn't making more but I guess the marketing didn't sell it well. With these early numbers it seems it'll be lucky to hit $80-90 million or so.

 

[Ultimatehero]

That would actually be a brand new thing if it made that much, as said, I was initially worried because I need this film to do good business. BUT if it does over 30 along with audiences liking it - that's really good. If it just makes 30 first weekend that's great as well. As long as it doesn't make less than that it's on track. I think box office sites are mistakenly comparing it to other animated films and Muppets. Since these are the films it should be compared to:

Polar Express - 23 million -> 182 million
Elf 31 million --> 173 million
The Santa Claus 19 million --> 144 million
Santa Claus 2 29 million --> 139 million
A Christmas Carol 30 million --> 137 million
Four Christmases 31 million --> 120 million

Those are the highest grossing Christmas movies of all time.

The only one, not included, is the Grinch which was the only one that was phenomenal with 50 mil and made nearly 300 mil.

With good reviews and the audience enjoying it, as well as it being the only Christmas movie it should get somewhere between 120 - 144 mil. Or maybe 120 - 130 mil depending on the effect The Hobbit has.

 

[terry78]

I think because, to be honest, the western audience expects animation to be mostly comedy, and this was more of an action flick sprinkled with comedic moments. The recent marketing is trying to push the elves and the slapstick, but it's no more than like maybe 15 minutes total that they're featured. It's not Kung Fu Panda, it gets even more serious than that series tries to.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I just think these movies do better over time. They're hard to judge. If ELF premiered this Thanksgiving bringing in just 31 mill, it would have also been seen as not going anywhere yet it became the third highest grossing Christmas movie of all time. And POLAR EXPRESS only brought in 21 mill - yet it seems like we'll do a lot more than that this weekend - and became the second highest grosser. As said, it's different charts to look at and examine. If this only made say 15 mil opening weekend, I'd be scared that this thing is on the same path as ARTHUR CHRISTMAS because I'd seem like a lunatic for furthering a christmas movie along production, but as long as it gets in the same range as the others? It's forecasts will likely only be able to be judged come the end of December.

Once you have mall Santas out and about, christmas music playing nonstop, kids getting excited for Christmas, parents looking for that holiday or animated film to take their small children to while the other parents shop - that's where the big bucks I think for these films comes from. While THE HOBBIT is family-friendly, I'm uncertain how many parents want to go see a two hour and twenty minute film more than once with their children (not many can sit easily for that long - that's mostly middle school and high school kids). As long as the reviews and audience rating remains strong, the outlooks look good and surprisingly on target. Every report I see has adults liking it and children loving it.

As said, it's just altering what it's judged against. Christmas rather than animation or dreamworks animation - by those forecasts, they'd have probably said POLAR EXPRESS was bound to be a flop....

 

[danoyse]

Yeah, the elves were being played up in the most recent ads like they were the Minions of this movie, but they actually had very little screen time (and I thought the Yeti were funnier). It's more of an action/fantasy story. My theater was a little less than half-full, but they seemed to be really into it. Hopefully it will pick up.

 

[Liam_H]

I feel like most of those movies are not entirely comparable to this considering cause of difference in opening dates. One would work is Four Christmases. Another two more recently would be Arthur Christmas and Tangled.

FC 5 day total was $46 million while Tangled was $68 million. RoTG is only estimated to pull in around low $30 million.

I mean maybe this could've done a lot better if it had the Wreck It Ralph released date.

 

[terry78]

Red Dawn and Pi aren't really much of a challenge to it, but this week people will be going to see Twilight and Skyfall that didn't get a chance to because of school and work also.

 

[Ultimatehero]

FOUR CHRISTMASES 11/26
RISE OF THE GUARDIANS 11/21
ELF 11/17
SANTA CLAUS 11/11
POLAR EXPRESS 11/10
CHRISTMAS CAROL 11/6
SANTA CLAUS 2 11/1

It's only a ten day difference among the top earners. Tangled wasn't christmas - it didn't include Santa, snow, or christmas carols.

Low 30 mill.... EVERY christmas film except for the Grinch pulled in a low 30 mil. There's only ONE that went over 31 mill and that was the Grinch... if it made 40 mil or more it would be on target to become the second highest grosser of all time with Christmas films. Hell, if it made 32 mil it would seemingly go that way too, but also bringing Hobbit into account for slowing down some of its legs among part of the audience.

If there wasn't a pattern, alrighty - but one can see why the studio only forecasted it to be around the 30 mil range and that's because past history shows these films open soft then maintain through the holiday. Arthur Christmas made only 13 mil in one week by comparison (that film was the first christmas film to really flop) while Rise has likely passed that in three days.

 

[Liam_H]

Yes but low $30 millions is for the 3 days, RoTG is for the 5 days. The three other movies you have highlighted were all released on Friday. I feel like such a difference in release time will effect its total take that much. But we'll see.

 

[danoyse]

Red Dawn and Pi aren't really much of a challenge to it, but this week people will be going to see Twilight and Skyfall that didn't get a chance to because of school and work also.

Shows of Twilight, Skyfall, and Lincoln were selling out all day at my theater. Saw a huge crowd leaving a showing of Red Dawn, too.

 

[Ultimatehero]

ELF 44 mil over first week
CHRISTMAS CAROL 40 mil over first week
SANTA CLAUS 40 mil over first week (I think... with inflation, without it's 23)
THE SANTA CLAUS 2 35 mil over first week
FOUR CHRISTMASES 14 mil over first week
POLAR EXPRESS 7 mil in first week, 28 mil in second week.

So there it too opened around the middle (and that's seven day forecasts). Also, does anyone know why POLAR EXPRESS opened like it did? Those numbers just really seem odd... was there a huge snow storm the whole first week?

I think the thing to take away here is as long as it's a christmas film that family's show interest in and genuinely like, then it's set for December.

 

[danoyse]

I thought the kid playing Jamie sounded familiar - it was Dakota Goyo, the kid who played Hugh Jackman's son in Real Steel.

 

[Liam_H]

That Polar Express number is deceiving cause it opened on a Wednesday so its first week was only Wednesday and Thursday. Same with Four Christmases. All the rest had a normal 3 day weekend.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Oh, so POLAR EXPRESS is slightly under 35 mil and FOUR CHRISTMASES is slightly under 45 mil or something like that. It's hard to really calculate since it has a couple days more than a 7 day week when looking at things like that. Also the last numbers I posted are weekly numbers rather than weekend numbers. Still just goes to show how unpredictable Christmas films can be since POLAR went on to become the 2nd highest grossing one and had the smallest weekly opening. I'd say it being the only holiday and family movie (especially for small children) over the season plus it being loved by the audience should set it up with the others. Most responses so far are, "a lot better than I expected" and "my kid thought it would be scary, but ended up loving it."

 

[HowardStark]

Sandy and The Easter Bunny really were cool. The Sand Man was silent yet seemed the most powerful Guardian. The Easter Bunny was just cool and I liked the spin on Santa's Toy Helpers here.

 

[Marvin]

This film was pretty great. Kids are going to really really love it. It pulls on similar notes and strings avengers did for geeks.

Given the year we've had I'd say it has a shot at the oscar, though given the hip undertones of Ralph that's probably a shoe in. And the academy loves giving stuff to disney when the occasion allows.

Replace Ryan Reynolds with Sandman and Wb may have a JLA movie yet!

Dreamworks should have pushed it a little further into winter(cause it's not winter yet). Though I can see why they would want to avoid the hobbit.

 

[Project862006]

I thought the kid playing Jamie sounded familiar - it was Dakota Goyo, the kid who played Hugh Jackman's son in Real Steel.

aka Young Thor

 

[terry78]

A Canadian Asgardian. What has this world come to?

 

[Ultimatehero]

Friday results are in, it raised 150% - and at MINIMUM is looking at 31 mil for the five day. With one site predicting it will end with about 114 mil when all is said and done. Here's hoping it's stronger than 114. But, at least now I can feel safe continuing to push another christmas film forward.

 

[HowardStark]

It could make more money on the weekend then week day release. Some people just wait to see family films on the weekends to avoid holiday mad rush.

 

[Ultimatehero]

That's actually what analysts are predicting currently for this weekend.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Rise of the Guardians placed No. 4. DWA and Paramount are hoping that Guardians follows the same path as The Polar Express -- both movies are Christmas-themed -- which debuted to a meek $23.3 million in early November 2004, but ultimately grossed $182.7 million domestically.

"It's not where you start, it's where you finish. Seasonal movies play out much logner and have smaller drops weekend to weekend. We should be the top choice for families and kids throughout the end of the year," DWA chief marketing officer Anne Globe said.

- Hollywood Reporter

This is the same thing I'm seeing:

1) No other holiday films
2) No other real children's movies - LIFE OF PI is out, so far reports are younger children may become too afraid and those older children have reported to have become "easily bored," while THE HOBBIT is coming along - it's mid-December AND is 2 hrs and 20 minutes which doesn't seem like a benefit to repeat family viewings over the holiday.
3) So far kids have been reported as loving it, adults are loving it as well - so look for more adults coming to see it who might have originally just shrugged it as a 'kid's film,' it has good reviews and a cinescore of A from the audience. Plus, the kids genuinely seem excited at McDonalds with the toys even... This is all pointing to strong legs over the holiday season.