I just think these movies do better over time. They're hard to judge. If ELF premiered this Thanksgiving bringing in just 31 mill, it would have also been seen as not going anywhere yet it became the third highest grossing Christmas movie of all time. And POLAR EXPRESS only brought in 21 mill - yet it seems like we'll do a lot more than that this weekend - and became the second highest grosser. As said, it's different charts to look at and examine. If this only made say 15 mil opening weekend, I'd be scared that this thing is on the same path as ARTHUR CHRISTMAS because I'd seem like a lunatic for furthering a christmas movie along production, but as long as it gets in the same range as the others? It's forecasts will likely only be able to be judged come the end of December.
Once you have mall Santas out and about, christmas music playing nonstop, kids getting excited for Christmas, parents looking for that holiday or animated film to take their small children to while the other parents shop - that's where the big bucks I think for these films comes from. While THE HOBBIT is family-friendly, I'm uncertain how many parents want to go see a two hour and twenty minute film more than once with their children (not many can sit easily for that long - that's mostly middle school and high school kids). As long as the reviews and audience rating remains strong, the outlooks look good and surprisingly on target. Every report I see has adults liking it and children loving it.
As said, it's just altering what it's judged against. Christmas rather than animation or dreamworks animation - by those forecasts, they'd have probably said POLAR EXPRESS was bound to be a flop....