The 2008 Senate Elections Thread

[The Senator]

So, here we are, in the middle of a seemingly endless presidential election. But let's not forget that there are other races going on across the country, and those races may end up being more important than the presidency.

In 2006, Democrats regained control of the Senate, but their majority is razor thin. Currently, there are 49 Democrats in the Senate, 49 Republicans, and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats. There are thirty-five seats being contested this year, with twelve belonging to the Democrats and twenty-three belonging to the Republicans.

As Democrats hope to expand their majority, there are five retiring Republicans and several close Republican seats they hope to swing.

Here's a break down of a few seats which could switch this November.

Likely Democratic

In Virginia, popular former governor Mark Warner, a Democrat, is running to take the seat of retiring Republican John Warner (no relation). Warner currently leads his opponent, former Republican governor Jim Gilmore, by sixteen points, and is likely to win in the fall.

In New Mexico, Democratic congressman Tom Udall is duking it out with Republican congresswoman Heather Wilson, as they both seek the seat once dominated by Republican Pete Domenici. Udall currently leads Wilson by fourteen points.

Leans Democratic

In Colorado, Democratic congressman Mark Udall (the cousin of Tom Udall) faces former Congressman Bob Schaeffer as they vie for the seat currently occupied by Republican Wayne Allard. Polls show Udall with a 3-12 point lead on Schaeffer.

In New Hampshire, Republican Senator John Sununu is up against former governor Jeanne Shaheen. Recent polls show Shaheen with an 8-14 point lead against Sununu.

Tossups

Al Franken seeks to unseat Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota. Coleman currently has a seven-point lead against Franken, but the polls have gone back and forth between the two over the past few months.

In Mississippi, newly appointed Republican Senator Roger Wicker faces former governor Ronnie Musgrove. No polls have been released, but Musgrove retains a strong post-governorship approval rating. Wicker's short tenure may hurt him in the long run.

Long-time Senator Ted Stevens faces a strong challenge in Alaska, as he faces the Democratic mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich. Begich had a six point lead on Stevens earlier this year, but Stevens currently has a one-point lead.

Other Seats

Possibly competitive races against Republican candidates include Texas, Maine, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming and Nebraska. But I would bet that the Republicans keep control of all those seats. I would also expect Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu to keep control of her seat in Louisiana, as she has a sixteen-point lead on her Republican challenger, John Kennedy.

My Current Predictions

I predict Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Colorado will switch control. If we see results like the 2006 elections, I would also keep an eye on Mississippi and Alaska. I believe the Democrats have a strong chance of gaining 4-6 seats this fall, meaning they will have a 55-57 seat majority, assuming none of the Democrats lose and that none of the current members switch parties.

Things change, but that's the outlook for now.

What are your thoughts?

 

[Matt]

I think it is only a matter of time before Lieberman jumps ship and starts caucusing with the Republicans. Hell, after his endorsement of McCain, the Democrats may even force him out if they solidify their control.

 

[Chris B]

I predict Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Colorado will switch control. If we see results like the 2006 elections, I would also keep an eye on Mississippi and Alaska. I believe the Democrats have a strong chance of gaining 4-6 seats this fall, meaning they will have a 55-57 seat majority, assuming none of the Democrats lose and that none of the current members switch parties.

I pretty much agree. VA, NH, CO, and NM are definate pick-ups. Landrieu will hold on to her seat. Alaska and MN are two others seats that could be picked up.

 

[Marx]

DEMOCRATS WIDEN LEAD IN BATTLE FOR CONGRESS
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/23/democrats-widen-lead-in-battle-for-congress/

 

[The Senator]

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, and New Hampshire appear to be guaranteed pick ups.

North Carolina appears a strong possibility.

Mississippi, Minnesota, Kentucky and Oregon are tossups, but if the past two Senate elections showed us anything, there is bound to be a spoiler. If I had to guess which of those is most likely to switch, I'd say it's tied between Oregon and Mississippi.

 

[Marx]

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, and New Hampshire appear to be guaranteed pick ups.

North Carolina appears a strong possibility.

Mississippi, Minnesota, Kentucky and Oregon are tossups, but if the past two Senate elections showed us anything, there is bound to be a spoiler. If I had to guess which of those is most likely to switch, I'd say it's tied between Oregon and Mississippi.

Mitch McConnell (KY) is in a pretty heated race from what I've seen.

 

[ShadowBoxing]

Democratic congressional and senatorial pick ups bode well for Obama.

 

[Raiden]

I think it is only a matter of time before Lieberman jumps ship and starts caucusing with the Republicans. Hell, after his endorsement of McCain, the Democrats may even force him out if they solidify their control.

Lieberman don't just endorse McCain; he's been on the assault against Obama and I think does it in a manner that really peeved the Dems, and he doesn't care. Perhaps he's hoping that once McCain is elected, he will be selected into a Cabinet position.

 

[The Senator]

Senate Outlook: Dems could gain 6-11 seats; 6-8 near certain.

Virginia: Mark Warner +25
New Mexico: Tom Udall +13
Colorado: Mark Udall +6
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen +5
North Carolina: Kay Hagen +4
Oregon: Jeff Merkley +4
Alaska: Mark Begich +3

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss +2
Minnesota: Norm Coleman +3
Mississippi: Roger Wicker +3
Kentucky: Mitch McConnel +5

 

[Raiden]

edit

 

[hippie_hunter]

All I gotta say is that Democrats were freaking stupid in having Al Franken run for Senate. If they gave it to anyone else I'm willing to bet that they would have been guaranteed another seat.

 

[Marx]

SENATOR DOLE FALLING BEHIND IN NORTH CAROLINA
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100303699.html

 

[Marx]

All I gotta say is that Democrats were freaking stupid in having Al Franken run for Senate. If they gave it to anyone else I'm willing to bet that they would have been guaranteed another seat.

AL FRANKEN OVERTAKES COLEMON AS VOTERS REACT TO NEGATIVE ADS
http://www.startribune.com/politics...9.html?elr=KArks:DCiU1OiP:DiiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

You were saying, Hippie?

 

[SentinelMind]

a fillibuster-proof Democratic Congress mixed with a Democratic White House scares me...and it should scare a lot of people.

 

[Superman]

AL FRANKEN OVERTAKES COLEMON AS VOTERS REACT TO NEGATIVE ADS
http://www.startribune.com/politics...9.html?elr=KArks:DCiU1OiP:DiiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

You were saying, Hippie?

43 to 34, Ouch.

 

[Marx]

a fillibuster-proof Democratic Congress mixed with a Democratic White House scares me...and it should scare a lot of people.

Did a rubber stamp Republican congress (until 2006) scare you Sent?

 

[SentinelMind]

Did a rubber stamp Republican congress (until 2006) scare you Sent?

It wasn't fillibuster proof,...but no, the last Republican Congress left much to be desired. The Republican Congress of the 90s under Gingrich and their Contract with America and collaboration with President Clinton did a bit of good work for this country in my opinion.

But I do fear a Great New Deal Society with Benefits II under a President Obama and a runaway fillibuster-proof Democratic Congress.

 

[The Senator]

New Numbers (by the way, these numbers reflect an average of polls taken within the past two-three weeks):

Virginia: Mark Warner +25
New Mexico: Tom Udall +12
Colorado: Mark Udall +8
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen +6
North Carolina: Kay Hagan +5
Oregon: Jeff Merkley +4
Alaska: Mark Begich +3
Minnesota: Al Franken +1

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss +1
Mississippi: Roger Wicker +2
Kentucky: Mitch McConnel +5
Maine: Susan Collins +10

Maine is added because the numbers have been dwindling, and a new poll from the DSCC has Collins polling under 50%.

 

[The Senator]

With a month left until the election, I have been looking over the poll numbers, and have concluded that the Republicans are going to be hit hard come Election Day. The Democrats will gain between six and ten seats; the question is, can that number go higher?

Likely Democratic

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire-- as previously stated-- look like safe Democratic pick ups. There is no doubt in my mind that, come Election Day, these seats will not switch control. The polling has been consistently in these four candidates' favor, and unless some game-changing scandal ruins one of these candidates in the process, I doubt those four seats will remain in control of the Republicans.

Leans Democratic

North Carolina, Oregon, and Alaska appear to be leaning towards the Democratic candidate. I would say that these seats are likely to switch, except for several factors which keep me from making any bold predictions. First, all three of these states are unpredictable. North Carolina and Oregon are deep purple states, and have a long history of electing both Democrats and Republicans statewide. Additionally, North Carolina and Alaska are much redder than Oregon in terms of presidential and Senatorial history. These states have voted consistently Republican up until the past year or so, when Democrats have started to fare better statewide. The fact that Sarah Palin is John McCain's running mate may also have an affect on how Alaska goes. Still, all three incumbents have increasingly high negatives, and have been down consistently in the polls.

Tossups

There are three toss-up states which are also very interesting to watch. The first is Minnesota, which is one of the wildest Senate races I have ever researched. For a while, it looked as though Norm Coleman was cruising to re-election. However, the addition of former Senator and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley to the race has thrown everything into chaos. Barkley is polling at 19%, and has drawn voters away from both Coleman and his challenger, Al Franken-- mostly because voters are sick of the bickering between the two, from what I have read. Franken now has a 9-point lead against Coleman, but this race has been back and forth. Some weeks, Coleman is ahead; others, Franken. Barkley only makes this race much more difficult to predict.

Georgia is interesting as well. Saxby Chambliss, the ass who viciously attacked Vietnam Vet Max Cleland's military record in 2002 [I tried being non-partisan, but I believe Chambliss's actions are inexcusable], is in a dead heat against his Democratic challenger, Jim Martin. Chambliss faces increased scrutiny for voting for the bailout bill, which has sent his poll numbers into a downward spiral. If the economy worsens, and Martin manages to use the bailout vote to his advantage, this could become a Democratic seat. Additionally, if election year turnout is at an all-time high among groups which are more likely to vote Democratic, Martin could pull an upset along the lines of Sheldon Whitehouse defeating Lincoln Chafee two years ago.

Finally, there is one state I have my own eyes glued to, and that is Mississippi. The Republican candidate, Roger Wicker, replaced Trent Lott last year. Now, he is being challenged by conservative former governor Ronnie Musgrove. Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country; however, Musgrove is not your traditional Democrat, and if the House special election earlier this year is any indication, Musgrove's conservative credentials may be an advantage in a state which is wary of liberal Democrats, but has no problems with conservative Democrats. The polls are closing in on this race, and with a month until the election, this is one of the most unpredictable races.

Leans Republican

Maine and Kentucky have become closer in recent weeks, with both Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell polling under fifty percent. However, they hold sizable leads against their challengers [Tom Allen and Bruce Lundsford, respectively], and it is not likely that these seats will switch. There exists a possibility that the seats could switch control, but right now, it appears highly unlikely.

Final Predictions

So, what does this spell for the next Congress? If I had a gun barrel placed to my head, I would say the following seats would shift to the Democratic Party:

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Alaska.

The following seats-- Minnesota, Mississippi, and Georgia-- are seats which will keep us up all night biting our fingernails, until every vote is counted.

If those three seats switch parties, then I believe the Democrats will reach the magic 60 seat threshold needed to fend off a filibuster from the opposing party.

HOWEVER... I also predict that Joe Lieberman will leave the Democratic caucus if his chairmanship is revoked, which would keep the Democrats at 59 seats-- one away from reaching a filibuster-proof majority.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Marx]

ANALYSTS: SENATE DEMS ON TRACK FOR 'MAGIC 60' MAJORITY
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/08/analysts-senate-dems-on-track-for-magic-60-majority/

 

[Marx]

ANALYSIS: WHY IS ELIZABETH DOLE VULNERABLE?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/14/senate.dole/index.html?eref=rss_politics&iref=polticker

 

[The Senator]

Perhaps the most powerful ad so far this Senate election cycle, from Rep. Tom Udall, who is running to replace Pete Domenici in New Mexico:



Truly moving.

 

[The Senator]

Where do I think we stand with a little bit over a week left until election day?

Predicted Democratic Gains
Virginia
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon
Alaska
North Carolina
Minnesota

Possible Democratic Gains
Mississippi
Georgia

Possible Republican Gains
None

Predicted Republican Gains
None

My final predictions, pending an unforeseeable scandal, is that the Democrats will have a 59 seat majority. That number may increased based on a number of factors, most important voter turnout in Mississippi and Georgia, which could boost that number to 61 seats. Lieberman may leave the Democratic caucus-- but reaching sixty seats is entirely possible at this point.

As for the House of Representatives:

I predict a net pickup of 21 seats by the Democrats (I will share my final House predictions, complete with my list of predicted pickups next week). Tim Mahoney and Paul Kanjorski will lose their bids for re-election, while Bud Cramer's open seat in Alabama will be picked up by a Republican.

 

[The Senator]

2008 HOUSE ELECTIONS

As previously stated, my prediction is that the Democrats will have 59 seats in the Senate as of November 5. Lieberman may leave the Democratic caucus, so 58 seats may be the final number.

But what about the House? I believe the Democrats will substantially increase their margins in the House this year. It may be the last election we see significant gains, but I feel that another Democratic wave will rock the House on election day, much like it did two years ago. After researching 80 or so competitive races and crunching some numbers, this is my list of predicted gains from both parties:

Predicted Democratic Gains

AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (open)
CA-04 (open)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
CT-04 (Shays)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-24 (Feeney)
ID-01 (Sali)
IL-10 (Kirk)
IL-11 (open)
MN-03 (open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NM-01 (open)
NM-02 (open)
NY-13 (open)
NY-25 (open)
NY-26 (open)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
NV-03 (Porter)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-15 (open)
OH-16 (open)
PA-03 (English)
VA-11 (open)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (open)

Total Gains:+27 seats

Predicted Republican Gains

AL-2 (open)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
TX-22 (Lampson)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)

Total Gains:+4 seats

Therefore, I predict a net gain of 23 seats by the Democratic Party.

 

[Franklin Richards]

a fillibuster-proof Democratic Congress mixed with a Democratic White House scares me...and it should scare a lot of people.

Did it scare you when the GOP controlled the congress and the White House?