The 2012 Alabama and Mississippi Primaries, and Hawaii Caucus

[Marx]

The Alabama and Mississippi primaries and Hawaii caucus take place on March 13th. Who will win? Who will lose?

(In keeping with the tradition of the 2008 election season...all debates, primaries, and caucuses that take place on the same day will have their own threads to ensure that the political forum continues to run smoothly.)

Discuss.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Polling done by the Alabama Education Association has Mitt Romney with a 9 point lead in Alabama. I'm calling ******** on that one.

 

[Marx]

I have a very hard time believing that too hippie.

 

[Marx]

UPDATE: MISSISSIPPI GOVERNOR PHIL BRYANT ENDORSES MITT ROMNEY
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/08/mississippi-governor-endorses-romney/?hpt=hp_t2

 

[hippie_hunter]

Rasmussen polling has Newt Gingrich leading Alabama with 30% followed by Rick Santorum with 29% and Mitt Romney with 28%. They also have Mitt Romney leading Mississippi with 35% followed by Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich tied with 27% each. Ron Paul is a non factor in both states.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight gives Newt Gingrich a 39% chance of winning Alabama while giving Mitt Romney a 38% chance. For Mississippi, he gives Mitt Romney a 70% chance of winning the state.

 

[SV Fan]

Rasmussen polling has Newt Gingrich leading Alabama with 30% followed by Rick Santorum with 29% and Mitt Romney with 28%. They also have Mitt Romney leading Mississippi with 35% followed by Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich tied with 27% each. Ron Paul is a non factor in both states.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight gives Newt Gingrich a 39% chance of winning Alabama while giving Mitt Romney a 38% chance. For Mississippi, he gives Mitt Romney a 70% chance of winning the state.

Not that Romney has to win one of those states, but it would sort of look nice for him(shake the can't rile up support in the South reputation). All that being said My money is on Romney winning the most southern US state(Hawaii)

 

[hippie_hunter]

If Romney wins Mississippi, Alabama or even both it's over for Gingrich. And Santorum will have a hard time pressing on as well.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Polling done by Alabama State for the upcoming primary has Gingrich in the lead with 21% followed by Mitt Romney with 20% and Rick Santorum with 17%. Ron Paul was not included in this survey.

 

[SV Fan]

Polling done by Alabama State for the upcoming primary has Gingrich in the lead with 21% followed by Mitt Romney with 20% and Rick Santorum with 17%. Ron Paul was not included in this survey.

How is that even possible, totaled together that is like 58%, undecided wins with 42%

 

[hippie_hunter]

How is that even possible, totaled together that is like 58%, undecided wins with 42%

15% went to "other candidates."

 

[hippie_hunter]

PPP polling has Mitt Romney in the lead in Alabama with 31% of the vote, followed by Newt Gingrich with 30% and Rick Santorum with 29%. Newt Gingrich is in the lead in Mississippi with 33% followed by Mitt Romney with 31% then Rick Santorum with 27%.

 

[Marx]

I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around Romney leading in the south...

 

[hippie_hunter]

CNN exit polling has Santorum leading in Alabama and Romney leading in Mississippi. Gingrich is underperforming with third place showings in both states.

 

[Marx]

I think it's time for Gingrich to step aside. Let's see if his ego will allow it...

 

[Thundercrack85]

I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around Romney leading in the south...

They don't much care for Catholics. Least, that's what I've heard.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Both Santorum and Gingrich are Catholics though. Gingrich may be worse simply because he converted to Catholicism when he married his wife. Add in Romney's Mormonism and I don't think the faith of the major candidate really matters in these states.

 

[Pagan]

I think it's time for Gingrich to step aside. Let's see if his ego will allow it...

He will once he's pulled enough delegates from Santorum to guarantee a Romney nomination. The party bosses have this all worked out.

 

[SV Fan]

He will once he's pulled enough delegates from Santorum to guarantee a Romney nomination. The party bosses have this all worked out.

From my understanding the guy who is funding Gingrich told Romney if Romney makes the head of the GOP he will support him with big dollar donations. Do the math.

 

[Pagan]

From my understanding the guy who is funding Gingrich told Romney if Romney makes the head of the GOP he will support him with big dollar donations. Do the math.

yeah Sheldon Adelson? He's already given Newt like 10 million or more hasn't he? I'm sure he doesn't want any favors.

 

[DACrowe]

MSNBC is calling Alabama for Santorum. If he wins Mississippi too, Gingrich has no excuse to stay in the race. If Gingrich drops out (probably for a VP spot), Santorum will have probably half of the GOP behind just because they hate Romney.

I still think Romney will pull this out, but as someone who wants Obama reelected, I'm hoping it keeps rolling this way.

 

[enterthemadness]

Curious, why do you want Obama reelected?

 

[SV Fan]

yeah Sheldon Adelson? He's already given Newt like 10 million or more hasn't he? I'm sure he doesn't want any favors.

Between him and his wife I believe it's up to 20M. From my understanding Adelson is bigtime pro Israel(which means he wants us to go to war)

 

[hippie_hunter]

CNN is projecting Santorum wins Alabama.

 

[Pagan]

Curious, why do you want Obama reelected?

because he wants the best for America?

 

[enterthemadness]

Please let Hawaii be Paul time.