The Spoiler-Free Box Office thread

[Celestial]

Any guesses how the movie will do in both domestic and international markets?

Originally my thoughts were around the same level as X2 and X3. Not quite as high as Iron Man but a lot better than The Incredible Hulk, Fantastic Four, Daredevil, Ghostrider.

This time, the international market will be more important than ever. Typically, comic book movies make more of their money in the domestic market than overseas with the Spider-Man and Fantastic Four franchises as the exceptions. With X-Men, there's been a gradual shift with overseas box office making up 47% for X1, 48% for X2 and 49% for X3. I think there are good reasons why Wolverine will continue the trend.

 

[BMM]

I think it will have a solid opening weekend, but if the movie is as average as people are saying, I think it could get lost in the fold quickly. I initially predicted $250+ million, but I think I'm going to reduce my prediction to $200-$250 million. Internationally, I have no idea.

 

[narrows101]

Star Trek in the US opens the week after so it will be interesting to see what it does after the first weekend. There used to be a prediction site that was usually pretty close to what the actual number is but I don't think it's around anymore.

 

[BMM]

I agree, although I'm not quite sure how to gauge Star Trek. I think Terminator Salvation could be the real killer, so to speak, of May.

 

[danoyse]

I think Star Trek is going to be huge. I know people (decidedly non-Trekkies) who are referring to the trailers as 'badass', and that is one word I never thought I would hear in the same sentence as Star Trek. If those reactions from the screening the other night are any indication of what the reviews are going to be like, it's going to be a hit this summer.

I believe Wolverine is going to survive the whole leak saga, and it should do some solid business. Hopefully it fares better than X3 and doesn't have that same 2nd weekend drop. I'm terrible at making estimates, so I don't even try.

 

[icelemt38]

The scary thing about the 2nd week is that Star Trek shares the exact same audience so even if the movie is really good, the 2nd week drop should be pretty substantial. I am fearing Star Trek more than ever, which is why I hope to God that the opening weekend will be strong enough to just sail into the 200M territory domestically.

World Wide I think should be good too, I'm guessing it will do something around X2. I'm hoping for above 80M opening, the problem is that the buzz coming from X3 is not very good as opposed to X2's buzz leading into X3. I really don't think the leak will have any significant impact on it at all, will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 

[BMM]

I think Star Trek is going to be huge. I know people (decidedly non-Trekkies) who are referring to the trailers as 'badass', and that is one word I never thought I would hear in the same sentence as Star Trek. If those reactions from the screening the other night are any indication of what the reviews are going to be like, it's going to be a hit this summer.

I believe Wolverine is going to survive the whole leak saga, and it should do some solid business. Hopefully it fares better than X3 and doesn't have that same 2nd weekend drop. I'm terrible at making estimates, so I don't even try.

I think the trailers look great. The only hurdle I think Star Trek may face is finding a younger audience, those individuals who may not have grown up with much of a Star Trek presence. Other than that, which may not even be a problem, I think it could have a strong audience. I know a lot of people looking forward to seeing it. One of my friends won't even let me discuss the trailers with him because he's so excited and doesn't want anything spoiled.

The scary thing about the 2nd week is that Star Trek shares the exact same audience so even if the movie is really good, the 2nd week drop should be pretty substantial. I am fearing Star Trek more than ever, which is why I hope to God that the opening weekend will be strong enough to just sail into the 200M territory domestically.



World Wide I think should be good too, I'm guessing it will do something around X2. I'm hoping for above 80M opening, the problem is that the buzz coming from X3 is not very good as opposed to X2's buzz leading into X3. I really don't think the leak will have any significant impact on it at all, will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

I have no idea what the opening weekend will be anymore. A couple of weeks ago, I would have said not more than $80 million, but if Fast and Furious can pull in $70 million in its opening weekend, Wolverine can probably do a lot better.

 

[danoyse]

I cannot get over how much money Fast and the Furious made last weekend. People just want to go to the movies right now.

 

[icelemt38]

I totally agree, the fact that Fast and Furious made so much shot my expectations up.

 

[squeekness]

May is a busy month with Star Trek and Terminator opening as well. I hope they don't steal too much of Wolverine's thunder. I guess I will have to do my part and see Wolverine multiple times to make up for those folks who either watched the bootleg (chumps) or went to see something else.

 

[Celestial]

I was trying to put together a list of why I think Wolverine will do well overseas.

1) The extra publicity from the leak could help the overseas market. Promotional budgets are much lower than the US and any publicity is good. Wolverine is being identified as a big summer release, so eagerly anticipated that a record number of people have downloaded it illegally.

2) It was a smart move to start promotion in Australia. Hugh clearly has very good relationships with the australian media and so they provided a lot of enthusiasm and support. It was a reminder that the film was made in Australia and has an australian star. It probably doesn't hurt that Hugh seems to be more popular than ever after Australia which made more than X2 and X3 together.

3) Possibly Hugh's increased fame may help in other countries, particularly in Europe. Maybe not the UK, but Russia, Germany, Spain, France.

 

[danoyse]

It's nice to know Australia did better elsewhere. I loved that movie, I don't care what anyone says.

 

[squeekness]

I figured maybe he started the promo work in Austrialia because most of the movie was filmed there, no?

 

[narrows101]

I figured maybe he started the promo work in Austrialia because most of the movie was filmed there, no?

Yes, he said that was the reason.

And I also don't care what anyone says about Australia - I loved it also. It may be my favorite Hugh movie (oh so hard to pick!) - no offense to X-Men of course, but I'm a sucker for those romance/type things and he was just so HOT in it!

 

[squeekness]

I still haven't seen it. I have way to many movies on my Netflix queue. I won't get to it for a while, but most folks I know who have seen it really liked it.

 

[icelemt38]

Australia did really well overseas and Celestial is right, as that just proves Hugh's popularity is definitely higher than ever before overseas.

I don't think Terminator will have any affect on Wolverine as by that time it would already be out for around a month, but Star Trek scares me. And the fact that in that third week in May, its Angels and Demons which will be big for the older crowd which could take a bite out of Star Trek's BO as most real Trekkies are older. And then next is Terminator, but every year there seems to be at least 1 film thats expected to make tons of money but doesn't, will be interesting to see which film this year will do just that.

 

[squeekness]

I am a bit surprised that May seems to be the big month of big openers this year. I was hoping they'd be a little more spread out.

 

[narrows101]

One of the BO prediction sites:

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=11526

*snikt*

Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of X-Men Origins: Wolverine?

Brandon Scott: This is going to do very well. $200 million or so. Even with the leaked film controversy, and Fox writer R. Friedman getting fired over his early review...his review was a very strong one, and I think that will bode well for the film. The trailers are exciting and I see high $100 to low $200 millions on the radar.

Joel Corcoran: Given the success of Iron Man and The Dark Knight from last year, I think the expectations for X-Men Origins: Wolverine are running incredibly high. The character of Wolverine may not have as many hardcore fans as Batman, but he has at least as many as Iron Man. Also, the Wolverine movie has the distinct advantage of having three solid X-Men movies behind it. Iron Man opened in early May of last year to the tune of $98.6 million and grossed $318.4 domestically. X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $102.8 million in late May 2006 with a domestic gross of $234.4 million. If X-Men Origins: Wolverine doesn't hit at least a $95 million opening and gross at least $225 million, it's going to be considered a significant disappointment.

Sean Collier: The X-Men fanbase is big, and the movies never really dipped too much in popularity. Furthermore, the Oscars just might have expanded Jackman's mainstream appeal a bit. I think it'll do quite well.

Max Braden: Even though I think most fans would agree that the third X-Men movie was the weakest of the trilogy, it opened to $123 million over the four day Memorial Day weekend three years ago. Wolverine focuses on the main draw of the movies, and Jackman looks great in the trailer. I could see this movie opening at $125 million even without the help of a holiday. A total gross of $250 or more wouldn't be a surprise.

Jim Van Nest: HUGE! Wolverine has a built in fan base from the first three films. Then throw in a REAL role for Sabretooth and the fanboys will go nuts over this one. I'm not saying it will outdo Potter or anything crazy like that, but it will crack the $200 million mark easily.

Reagen Sulewski: Wolverine is obviously the character best able to hold his own for a movie, but it almost feels like they're going with this as Mutants: The B-Team. Added with the fact that the FX look a little dodgy, I think we're going to have a bit of a step down in the opening weekend, and possibly a petty quick exit from theatres. But yes, that said, that still means $200 million without breaking much of a sweat.

Kim Hollis: I'm going to kind of fall in line with Reagen here. I agree that this feels like something more B-level than the first three X-Men films or Iron Man. I'm hearing generally positive buzz, but the TV commercials genuinely look like crap. There is nothing in them that screams out to say Wolverine is something special or even in the same ballpark as X-Men. I still think it will do gangbusters business, of course, but to say anything under $95 million would be a disappointment seems a little extreme. I'd say $80 million could be an anticipated debut, with what is likely to be quick fall-off due to the extreme fanboy nature of the film unless it's Iron Man good.

Pete Kilmer:I think we're looking at an $80+ million opener for this movie. The leak has certainly brought this film into people's minds and with the added footage and special effects this could be a very strong film. Granted X3 wasn't that good, but Hugh was outstanding in it, as he has been in the series. So this should continue for Hugh. I expect it to end around $225 million or so....

David Mumpower: If we examine the three films in the franchise to date, the average performance is right at $200 million. The worst performer, the original X-Men, earned $157.3 million in 2000, a total that inflation adjusts to almost $210 million. Obviously, all of the empirical data supports the idea that this is a $200 million movie. The question is whether Wolverine on his own holds as much appeal as the entire group in composite. Wolverine has always been the break-out character for a few reasons. The claws are cool, his background is shrouded in mystery, and he is the rare superhero who kills people. Given that the movie will explore his background, there is a lot of cause for optimism, not the least of it being because Brett Ratner is not involved. While Gavin Hood, the direct of Tsotsi, is an odd choice for such a massive production, he has to be better than Ratner. My concern is that X-Men: The Last Stand lingers in people's memories for the train wreck it was, but we should still acknowledge his financial success with that title. It remains the ninth largest opening weekend to date with $102.8 million. I'm not expecting quite as gangbusters a debut here, but an X2:X-Men United-esque $85 million debut should mean it will get to $200 million domestic, even with the dramatic frontloading we have for films of this scale these days.

 

[narrows101]

One of the BO prediction sites:

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=11526

*snikt*

Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of X-Men Origins: Wolverine?

Brandon Scott: This is going to do very well. $200 million or so. Even with the leaked film controversy, and Fox writer R. Friedman getting fired over his early review...his review was a very strong one, and I think that will bode well for the film. The trailers are exciting and I see high $100 to low $200 millions on the radar.

Joel Corcoran: Given the success of Iron Man and The Dark Knight from last year, I think the expectations for X-Men Origins: Wolverine are running incredibly high. The character of Wolverine may not have as many hardcore fans as Batman, but he has at least as many as Iron Man. Also, the Wolverine movie has the distinct advantage of having three solid X-Men movies behind it. Iron Man opened in early May of last year to the tune of $98.6 million and grossed $318.4 domestically. X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $102.8 million in late May 2006 with a domestic gross of $234.4 million. If X-Men Origins: Wolverine doesn't hit at least a $95 million opening and gross at least $225 million, it's going to be considered a significant disappointment.

Sean Collier: The X-Men fanbase is big, and the movies never really dipped too much in popularity. Furthermore, the Oscars just might have expanded Jackman's mainstream appeal a bit. I think it'll do quite well.

Max Braden: Even though I think most fans would agree that the third X-Men movie was the weakest of the trilogy, it opened to $123 million over the four day Memorial Day weekend three years ago. Wolverine focuses on the main draw of the movies, and Jackman looks great in the trailer. I could see this movie opening at $125 million even without the help of a holiday. A total gross of $250 or more wouldn't be a surprise.

Jim Van Nest: HUGE! Wolverine has a built in fan base from the first three films. Then throw in a REAL role for Sabretooth and the fanboys will go nuts over this one. I'm not saying it will outdo Potter or anything crazy like that, but it will crack the $200 million mark easily.

Reagen Sulewski: Wolverine is obviously the character best able to hold his own for a movie, but it almost feels like they're going with this as Mutants: The B-Team. Added with the fact that the FX look a little dodgy, I think we're going to have a bit of a step down in the opening weekend, and possibly a petty quick exit from theatres. But yes, that said, that still means $200 million without breaking much of a sweat.

Kim Hollis: I'm going to kind of fall in line with Reagen here. I agree that this feels like something more B-level than the first three X-Men films or Iron Man. I'm hearing generally positive buzz, but the TV commercials genuinely look like crap. There is nothing in them that screams out to say Wolverine is something special or even in the same ballpark as X-Men. I still think it will do gangbusters business, of course, but to say anything under $95 million would be a disappointment seems a little extreme. I'd say $80 million could be an anticipated debut, with what is likely to be quick fall-off due to the extreme fanboy nature of the film unless it's Iron Man good.

Pete Kilmer:I think we're looking at an $80+ million opener for this movie. The leak has certainly brought this film into people's minds and with the added footage and special effects this could be a very strong film. Granted X3 wasn't that good, but Hugh was outstanding in it, as he has been in the series. So this should continue for Hugh. I expect it to end around $225 million or so....

David Mumpower: If we examine the three films in the franchise to date, the average performance is right at $200 million. The worst performer, the original X-Men, earned $157.3 million in 2000, a total that inflation adjusts to almost $210 million. Obviously, all of the empirical data supports the idea that this is a $200 million movie. The question is whether Wolverine on his own holds as much appeal as the entire group in composite. Wolverine has always been the break-out character for a few reasons. The claws are cool, his background is shrouded in mystery, and he is the rare superhero who kills people. Given that the movie will explore his background, there is a lot of cause for optimism, not the least of it being because Brett Ratner is not involved. While Gavin Hood, the direct of Tsotsi, is an odd choice for such a massive production, he has to be better than Ratner. My concern is that X-Men: The Last Stand lingers in people's memories for the train wreck it was, but we should still acknowledge his financial success with that title. It remains the ninth largest opening weekend to date with $102.8 million. I'm not expecting quite as gangbusters a debut here, but an X2:X-Men United-esque $85 million debut should mean it will get to $200 million domestic, even with the dramatic frontloading we have for films of this scale these days.

 

[Celestial]

David Poland is wondering about budgets and their impact on box office. He's using Wolverine and Star Trek as examples of different approaches.

Star Trek cost almost twice what Wolverine cost to produce and that is completely apparent in the films themselves. But the different levels of expense – you can really see the money on the screen (as money goes in this era) in both cases – is not a clear positive or negative in either case. They are just different concepts.

Fox is clearly trying to build the Origins franchise, taking advantage of improvements in effects, but not going too far overboard on spending. It’s more raw, more character driven, more focused on the actors (casting top veteran actors not known for being in action films in the big supporting roles) and has a more simple palette, the biggest visuals being actual outdoor locations.

Paramount is clearly going for The Big Gross with Star Trek. It’s densely visual from start to finish, with showy lighting, tons of production design, and edited at an intense pace. It’s got that action movie relentlessness and similarly to a Michael Bay or David Fincher movie, you can feel the layers of effort put into every frame. On the effects level, it is 100% true that this is not your father’s (or grandfather’s) Star Trek.

 

[Celestial]

Thoughts about the australian box office from The Sydney Morning Herald

When X-Men Origins: Wolverine, the fourth in the series, opens tomorrow, it does so with a solid momentum behind it. The franchise's box-office takings have steadily increased with every outing - the original took $12 million and the next two took $16 million each. But 20th Century Fox wants more. Its managing director for Australia, Marc Wooldridge, says the anticipation around Origins is high. Why? "The key advantage we have had for this film is Hugh himself."

Origins tells the story of how Wolverine, the clawed mutant played by Jackman, became Wolverine. "His motivation to become Wolverine is to give himself the tools to avenge the death of the one woman who loved him and he loved," says Wooldridge. "There's a very strong human emotion to the film."

Combine that romantic storyline with Jackman's sex appeal - he was recently voted sexiest man alive by People magazine - and a new market to the genre opens up: women.

"His female appeal is at its height. I think women will really like it and the word of mouth will be strong," says Wooldridge, who won't speculate on the likely box office.

The studio hosted an event on Cockatoo Island where Jackman arrived hanging out of a helicopter then descended on a flying fox. There the gathered media and 500 people selected via a radio promotion were given a 20-minute preview of the finished film. Jackman then did an hour on a radio show and a press conference, ensuring maximum exposure for himself and the film. Wooldridge says Jackman is acknowledged to be among the best at film promotion; particularly so given his own production company, Seed Productions, has a stake in the film.

The event benefited from the buzz generated when a leaked copy of an almost finished version of the film hit the internet. Fox says it had nothing to do with the leak and Wooldridge says it was "far from ideal". He said only when it opens will he know if it had helped or hindered the marketing.

 

[narrows101]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003126.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

'Wolverine' claws to top of box office
Prequel nabs record bow for Fox with $87 mil
By PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

Marking a howling start for the summer box office, 20th Century Fox’s “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” grossed $87 million from 4,099 runs at the domestic box office.

That’s the second-best opening of the four “X-Men” movies after “X2: X-Men United,” which had the advantage in opening over Memorial Day in 2003. “X2” grossed $102.1 million for the four-day holiday weekend.

“Wolverine’s” impressive bow came despite a working copy of the movie being pirated a month before the film’s opening. Studio isn’t sure how much the piracy ate into the box office, but some insiders suggest it could be as much as $20 million.

The Fox-Marvel prequel is the widest opening in Fox’s history.

Warner Bros. and New Line’s “Ghosts of Girlfriends Past,” offering an alternative for women, opened to $15.3 million from 3,175 runs to land at No. 2 after “Wolverine.”

"Wolverine" dropped only 15% from Friday to Saturday. Many had thought the pic will drop more, since fanboy-driven movies often see significant declines.

“Ghosts” performed in line with last year’s “Made of Honor,” which opened to $14.8 million on the same weekend a year ago.

That’s also the same weekend that Paramount’s “Iron Man” bowed. “Iron Man” opened to $102 million.

 

[narrows101]

One more with breakdowns and foreign numbers:

http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b121917_oscar_bump_goes_tohellipwolverine.html

And the Oscar Bump Goes to…Wolverine!
Today 9:24 AM PDT by Joal Ryan

Maybe Wolverine should thank the Academy. And Hugh Jackman.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine rose above everything from swine flu to playoff basketball to gross $87 million at the weekend box office, its studio estimated. The debut was the year's biggest, and the fourth-biggest ever for a summer-season opener.

"We've had a lot of hurdles to overcome with his movie," 20th Century Fox's Chris Aronson said today. "At the end of the day, audiences have a huge appetite for Hugh."

And was that appetite whetted by Jackman's appearance as Oscar host?
"What other explanation is there?" Aronson asked. "That turn just made him that much more appealing."

Especially among women.

More than the previous three X-Men films, Aronson said, Wolverine's audience split almost evenly along gender lines: 53 percent of moviegoers were men; 47 percent were women.

And apparently fond of superheroes who can sing, dance and duet nicely with Anne Hathaway.

Drilling down into the numbers:

• In foreign countries, minus swine-flu-stricken Mexico, natch, Wolverine took in $73 million, Fox reported. After three days, the reputedly $130 million movie's worldwide haul stands at $160 million.

• Wolverine's string of bad breaks, not including bad reviews, included: a leaked print, the swine-flu outbreak, and, the Chicago Bulls pushing the Boston Celtics into a Game 7 playoff game. The last one was the most recent wrinkle. According to Aronson, Wolverine's box office was down 32 percent in Chicago last night as the Bulls played the Celtics. In victorious Boston, business was down 21 percent.

• Audiences seemed fully aware of Wolverine's bad buzz. But, in the end, per Fox's exit polling, nearly half of all moviegoers said the film was better than they expected.

• Among summer-season starters, Wolverine ranks behind Spider-Man 3 ($151.1 million), Spider-Man ($114.8 million), and last year's Iron Man ($98.6 million).

• Among X-Men movies, unadjusted for inflation, Wolverine ranks behind only X-Men: The Last Stand ($102.8 million).

 

[Prison Mike]

$87 million is not bad at all...

 

[narrows101]

International numbers:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003127.html?categoryid=19&cs=1

'Wolverine' bites into foreign box office
Prequel tops with international audiences
By DAVE MCNARY

"X-Men Origins: Wolverine" kicked the summer season overseas into high gear by dominating the foreign box office with $73 million at 9,234 playdates in 101 markets -- by far the biggest weekend of 2009.

With Fox culminating a massive worldwide promo push, the U.K. led the way with $9.8 million in the best Brit launch this year, followed by $7.4 million in France, $5.7 million in Australia, $5.5 million in Spain, $4.8 million in Brazil, $4 million in Germany, $3.7 million in Russia and $3.5 million in Italy. Fox has postponed the launch of "Wolverine" in Mexico because of the flu outbreak.

Fox said the fourth "X-Men" pic generated the top launch numbers among the franchise entries in many markets. Three years ago, "X-Men: The Last Stand" opened day and date with $76.3 million on its way to cuming $225 million overseas -- the seventh highest foreign grosser that year.

"Wolverine" came in second in South Korea with $3 million, trailing the $4.1 million launch of "Thirst," Universal's co-production with Korean filmmaker Chan-wook Park. Fox also scored its biggest opening weekends all time in Brazil, Singapore with $1.56 million and Malaysia with $1.2 million.

"Wolverine" came in 62% higher than the $45 million take for "Fast and Furious" on Easter weekend, which had been the the year's top weekend gross. The Hugh Jackman starrer is already the seventh highest foreign grosser among 2009 entries, trailing "Fast and Furious," "Monsters Vs. Alients," "Valkyrie," "Gran Torino," "Red Cliff 2," and "Watchmen."
"Wolverine" will see competition next weekend from Paramount's day and date launch of "Star Trek." And with summer tentpole season starting, studios have opted for only a few counterprogramming forays.

Zac Efron's "17 Again" led the rest of the pack with $8.3 million at 1,852 in 25 marketes, led by a $3.6 million launch in Spain -- trailing "Wolverine" by $1.9 million. "17 Again" has cumed $38 million outside the United States.
In its first major foreign launches Disney's "Hannah Montana: The Movie" connected with its pre-teen demo with $6.7 million at 1,050 in a dozen markets, led by $2.7 million in the U.K., $2 million in Italy and $700,000 in Norway. The Mexican opening has been pushed back three weeks.

"Fast and Furious" also took in $6.7 million at 6,345 in 60 territories with Uni noting strong holds in several markets as foreign cume hit $182.4 million. Par's "Monsters Vs. Aliens" tacked on $6.1 million at 5,357 in 60 markets to lift the toon's international total to $152.4 million.

Universal saw "State of Play," still early in its foreign run, perform respectably with $5.1 million at 1,422 in 14 territories including a moderate $1.3 million Italian launch. "State" has cumed $12.4 million overseas.

Warner's "Gran Torino" added $2.3 million at 1,840 to drive its foreign cume to $105.2 million while Uni's "Duplicity" took in $2.1 million at 1,426 to push its international total to $29.1 million. In France, biopic "Coco Avant Chanel" grossed $1.9 million in its second frame, off 31% for a $5.4 million French cume.