Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[Iceman]

Maybe I'm not doing well enough job explaining myself here, but even thru the first two films of each franchise who has multiple - Thor's is the lowest.

No that's Cap. HD gave the figures in the post you quoted. Cap did worse than Thor when you add the first 2 films of each franchise together.

 

[Moridin]

Maybe I'm not doing well enough job explaining myself here, but even thru the first two films of each franchise who has multiple - Thor's is the lowest.

I dunno why this is even a discussion right now. Financially it hasn't been anywhere close to a top earner for the MCU. "Relatively" speaking it's been an under-achieving franchise.

Just taking the first 2 movies of each franchise, HammerDown's numbers are accurate. Cap's first 2 movies ($1.08bn) earned less that Thor's first 2 ($1.09bn). They both follow Avengers ($2.9bn), GotG ($1.6bn) & IM ($1.2bn).

 

[JtheDreamer]

No that's Cap. HD gave the figures in the post you quoted. Cap did worse than Thor when you add the first 2 films of each franchise together.

OK my bad. Math was off.

Not like it's any consolation prize to be second to last based on 100 million. LOL

 

[Iceman]

OK my bad. Math was off.

Not like it's any consolation prize to be second to last based on 100 million. LOL

TWS was the breakout film for Cap. Thor hasn't had that but judging by what we've seen so far this one looks like it might be the breakout for the Thor franchise. Cap films are now big hitters and I think even if you took the other Avengers out of Civil War it would have done well, making $800m plus. I think Thor is on his way to being one of the MCU's bankable stars.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Just taking TWS and TDW into account, Thor in general probably did better than Cap in almost everywhere except in NA and China. TWS just blew up in China and did 115.6 million. Take that out and Cap 2's OS-China figure will be 338.9 million. While the OS-China number for Thor 2 will be 382.9 million. Bigger than Cap 2's number.

Plus Thor 1 was a much bigger success than Cap 1 theatrically. Thor's 1st movie nearly tripled it's rumored production budget while Cap's 1st movie did 2.64 times the prod budget. In foreign countries Thor led Cap by a large margin (268m>>193m). OS audience was more receptive to the God of Thunder. Overall, I think Thor is doing pretty well. Granted Thor could do with better domestic numbers but the franchise is profitable and I think Disney is happy with Thor's returns so far.

Cap 3 would have definitely increased from Cap 2 but had it not been for the other Avengers in Civil War, Cap 3 would not have been so big (1 billion+). The worse ER in OS countries would have prevented a proper Cap 3 movie from a substantial increment over TWS. Civil War was marketed and sold like an 'Avengers' movie. The domestic and OS BO collection or rather the huge increase from the BO collection of TWS, will stand testimony to that. It's very difficult to guess or estimate what a Cap 3 film with Steve Rogers front and center without other Avengers in the movie would have done at the BO.

Even with Hulk in the movie, Ragnarok looks like a proper Thor movie through and through, which will do very well without any aid from other superheroes of the MCU.

My optimistic prediction would be (320+524) = 844 million world-wide and a reserved prediction would be (306+511) = 817 million.

 

[All-Father]

Well, I see it making 850M+. I do believe this going to be Thor's break out movie.

 

[Finarfiniel]

Well, I see it making 850M+. I do believe this going to be Thor's break out movie.

I don't claim to know the first thing about box office predictions (which is why I rarely join in these kind of conversations), but I genuinely think this film could have great legs by the sounds of it, especially if the reception to JL is poor to lukewarm. By all accounts it sounds like a real crowd pleaser and the kind of film that has a high rewatchability factor. I've read more than a few reactions saying they wanted to watch it again straight away. If that's a general consensus, I could quite easily see it reaching 850M, hopefully more.

 

[Iceman]

I think the could be a good amount of people coming back for a 2nd viewing.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I don't claim to know the first thing about box office predictions (which is why I rarely join in these kind of conversations), but I genuinely think this film could have great legs by the sounds of it, especially if the reception to JL is poor to lukewarm.

Justice League wouldn't be too big a problem for Ragnarok. It's 2nd weekend coincides with a holiday (Veteran's day) that'll soften it's sophomore weekend drop. JL will definitely hit Ragnarok hard (direct competition) on OW but the Thanksgiving week will make sure Ragnarok rebounds nicely. Plus, Doctor Strange and Fantastic Beasts didn't bother each other all that much in 2016 and likewise TDW wasn't bullied that much by THG:CF. I think Ragnarok will be fine. Both JL and Ragnarok can co-exist peacefully.

 

[HammerDown]

Also the only bit of significant overlap will happen in countries like the US, Russia, Canada, Mexico, India and China which are countries that will have a 2 week gap between TR and JL. Actually in China and other of these countries most box office money is made on those 2 first weeks anyway. Everywhere else the movies will have a 3 week gap which will give them plenty of space to breath.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah that's more than enough of a gap.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

What's the tracking looking like currently? Been slacking on staying up to date on this one, but it looks awesome. My only concern is how the humor is going to translate in other markets.

 

[HammerDown]

Uppdate: 15 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 499 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (24% of tickets.)
Saturday - 391 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (19%)
Sunday - 184 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (11%)

Opening Weekend totals: 1074 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (18%)

Those positive reactions definitely boosted more people to buy tickets.

Update to the amount of IMAX tickets sold in the theatre near me. 9 days before release.

Opening day / Friday - 583 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (28% of tickets.)
Saturday - 457 tickets sold out of 2105 available. (22%)
Sunday - 216 tickets sold out of 1684 available. (13%)

Opening Weekend totals: 1286 IMAX tickets sold out of 5894. (22%)

 

[HammerDown]

What's the tracking looking like currently? Been slacking on staying up to date on this one, but it looks awesome. My only concern is how the humor is going to translate in other markets.

According to Deadline it's tracking between 100 and 110M OW. In relation to the humor... yesterday there was a big screening in the UK and people loved that aspect of the movie. Different countries have different sensibilities for sure.

On thing that i would like to point out is that this movie can have good to great word of mouth. The way the movie plays, with those visuals, the humor, music, cast... if it hits the right spot with the general audience then it could spread pretty good and quick. The UK screening from yesterday is one of those examples. People we're buzzing and that built up the hype and interesting for everyone around them too.

 

[BigThor]

Also it's not "American humor", it's New Zealand and Australian humor which might work better with overseas audiences.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I'm talking more about non-English speaking countries where the translations aren't always 1:1. The flip side though, if it's based on a lot of Thor's past humorous moments it could be a lot of Thor not quite getting the joke which would presumably translate better. I'm not too worried about it being too "American" as most of the movie takes place in other realms besides Midgard if I'm not mistaken.

I def agree the visuals could help offset that as the trailers seem very epic. Plus having Hulk in there should be a big boost oversees as he's insanely popular in foreign markets too.

 

[HammerDown]

Thor: Ragnarok's early tracking suggests a domestic opening of $100+/- million on the first weekend of November. The lower-end estimate is perhaps $90 million, with higher-end predictions of $110+ million. Fandango's polling shows Ragnarok as the most anticipated film of the Fall movie season, the film has strong advance ticket sales and overall audience awareness is remarkably high. The trailer is the most-watched of all time for any film by Disney and its associated studios (Marvel, Lucasfilm, and Pixar).

The first Thor had a final 2.7x multiplier, and Thor: The Dark World had a 2.4x final multiplier, meaning the franchise average is roughly a 2.55x multiplier. While I expect Thor: Ragnarok to have a higher multiplier than either of those earlier releases, we also have to realize Ragnarok faces some stiff competition for the same primary demographics, within just a couple of weeks of release -- Justice League opens two weeks later, so Ragnarok only has its first two weekends to itself in that regard. Then the animated Coco arrives a few days later, followed by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle in December. This doesn't mean Ragnarok won't have good legs, just that a runaway marathon performance like Wonder Woman will be much more difficult.

So, using the average multiplier from the past two Thor films, a $100 million North American opening would suggest a final domestic tally of perhaps $250 million for Thor: Ragnarok. That, in turn, would translate into a worldwide total in the range of $500 million to $750 million, depending on whether the international markets' portion of global receipts is more in line with the original Thor movie or its sequel. If we assume a multiplier more like the original film, however, then that 2.7x would take the domestic cume to $270 million and the finale global cume to between $540 million and $810 million.

Source: Marvel Studios
Rachel House as Topaz, Jeff Goldblum as Grandmaster, and Tessa Thompson as Valkyrie in Marvel's "Thor: Ragnarok"
I think a 2.7x multiplier might be very close to the eventual outcome, with 2.8-2.9x my guess for the higher-end. For the actual opening weekend take in North America, I think Ragnarok will play north of $100 million, closer to $110-115 million. That would be a series best for the God of Thunder, and enough to push the final totals conservatively toward about $300+ million domestic and $750+ million worldwide.

Many people are predicting even higher performance for the picture, and I don't rule that out at all. At this point, however, I'm reluctant to fall into the trap of treating every film as a candidate for "can it make $1 billion" discussions. A performance in the $750+ million range would be great, and in fact I think the actual outcome will more likely be $310+ million domestic and $800-850 million worldwide, which gets Thor right to where he needs to be. Anything north of the $800-850 million range is pure gravy.

Again, it's possible the film will play even higher than my bullish estimates here, with $900 million being at least possible. But I am inclined to think we have to remember the series' past reception, the competition the film faces after the first two weeks, and fact a lot of sequels this year wound up performing weakly or at least below more lofty early expectations despite good reviews and seeming audience interest prior to release. There were several films that were part of the "it could make $1 billion" talk throughout the year, including this year's other MCU releases, and while those two Marvel films did big box office and nobody in their right mind could possibly suggest they weren't enormous hits, it drives home the point we need to be more careful about thinking every beloved franchise sequel is a $1 billion contender, or that $1 billion is a bar for success.

Now, why do I think Thor: Ragnarok will play higher than early tracking and finish north of $800 million? Because it's spectacular, and word of mouth will be off the charts. Read on for my full review...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/10/19/review-thor-ragnarok-promises-a-grand-eccentric-vision-for-marvels-future/#6ea42fc11fc3

 

[Webfoot Hero]

The $100-110 million OW projection seems really conservative, especially with the type of reviews coming in.

 

[Iceman]

I think with these reviews the predictions might start ramping up.

 

[HammerDown]

Yeh i also think that the early predictions will increase generously.
Spider-Man: HC had lower OW predictions than Thor Ragnarok and in the end aided with the positive buzz managed to score 117M OW.

 

[BigThor]

The $100-110 million OW projection seems really conservative, especially with the type of reviews coming in.

Definitely

 

[All-Father]

I think with these reviews the predictions might start ramping up.

Yeah, they'll only get bigger!

 

[metaphysician]

Still, its better that people make conservative predictions, and then be pleasantly surprised, than to have wild and unrealistic predictions. That way tends to lead to crazy conspiracy theories about somebody waging a secret war against one's preferred movies.

 

[BigThor]

Still, its better that people make conservative predictions, and then be pleasantly surprised, than to have wild and unrealistic predictions. That way tends to lead to crazy conspiracy theories about somebody waging a secret war against one's preferred movies.

Lmao good point and have you checked out the links in my signature?

We could use your imput bud.

 

[scarlet-witch]

I went with $700-800M. Of course, I hope it does more.