Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

[Hotwire]

Completely wrong.

If proven wrong, I'll own it.

 

[InCali]

I see it easily hitting 300M. Let's see what JL does next weekend and, maybe more importantly, the week after. I'm not rooting for it to fail so it will help TR's numbers, but do think it's success or lack thereof, will have something of an effect on the final BO #s.

 

[iEquinox]

I'm expecting a drop of about 60% next weekend(because it's coming off a weekend that was inflated by a holiday and Justice League is coming out). The weekend after that, I'm expecting a very strong hold (20-25% drop) because of Thanksgiving.

It's extremely close to IM2's numbers atm, and if things keep going as expected, it should still be close after Thanksgiving weekend. It'll probably lose some ground on IM2 soon, but make up for it again with the help of Thanksgiving. $300M+ is looking pretty good imo.

 

[russian gal]

checked showtimes for tomorrow at my local theater
JL & some indies took convenient evening showtimes from TR
I love seeing the movies after work like at 7 PM

Ugh Im keeping being mad @ local Disney branch for not releasing it on 4-6 Nov extended holiday weekend
Dont see any major buzz for JL All it does is just taking screens from TR

Anyway I hope it still can go up to 30 mil & beat GOTG2 here

Will go again today & add more of my money t:
Another 2 times are planned with my friends

 

[gerrym51]

I don't understand people here. It's unreasonable to expect Thor even with Hulk to do Avengers box office.

850 to 900 million WW seems aok to me

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 215M
Foreign = 440M
Worldwide = 655M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017.htm

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I don't understand people here. It's unreasonable to expect Thor even with Hulk to do Avengers box office.

850 to 900 million WW seems aok to me

Given that the first two Thor films did just over a billion combined, I’d say anything close to $800 million, never mind $900 million, qualifies as more than just aok. It’s downright fantastic. t:

 

[warriorking]

Its projected to make around 27 Million for the upcoming weekend..

 

[HammerDown]

Given that the first two Thor films did just over a billion combined, I’d say anything close to $800 million, never mind $900 million, qualifies as more than just aok. It’s downright fantastic. t:

 

[iEquinox]

I don't understand people here. It's unreasonable to expect Thor even with Hulk to do Avengers box office.

Not sure what you're talking about. Who are these people who were expecting $1.5B?

Looking at the poll, it's meeting or exceeding most people's expectations.

 

[warriorking]

Another good day for Tuesday totals..$4,489,361
http://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

Domestic Box Office $220,256,852 Details
International Box Office $438,500,000 Details
Worldwide Box Office $658,756,852

We should be closing in on 255 Million or more by Monday...

 

[Krystal]

I disagree.

GotG2 2nd Tuesday had a 26.5% gain from it's 2nd Monday and a50.8% drop from it's first Tuesday

Doctor Strange 2nd Tuesday had a 40.9% gain from it's 2nd Monday and a 51.5% drop from it's first Tuesday.

Thor:R 2nd Tuesday had a 21% gain from it's 2nd Monday and a 58.6% drop from it's first Tuesday.

Spin it any way you want that's a bad trend.

Thor DW 2nd Tuesday 23.5% gain and 47.9% drop
SM:H 38.1% gain 49.9% drop

Ragnarok had the worst 1st Tuesday to 2nd Tuesday drop of all 17 MCU movies
It had 6th worst 2nd Tuesday over 2nd Monday gain of the 17 MCU movies (Tuesdays always gain over Monday unless the Monday is a holiday)

It had the 9th worst 1st Monday to 2nd Monday drop -- (meaning it's second Tuesday wasn't having to gain much over a fairly weak 2nd Monday in the first place)

 

[iEquinox]

Look at the Wednesday-Wednesday drop tomorrow. You'll say "oh that's pretty good, false alarm". Then, on Thursday, the drop from last week will be big again, and you'll go back to saying it's a "bad trend" again. It never ends.

My point is: Don't read too much into a singe daily number. Look at how it's doing overall. Box office numbers are affected by so many factors, there's always going to be some fluctuations there. Try not to overreact to them.

 

[HammerDown]

12 days into their domestic run and both Thor Ragnarok and Spider-Man: Homecoming are tied with a total of 220M.

 

[Finarfiniel]

Not sure what you're talking about. Who are these people who were expecting $1.5B?

Looking at the poll, it's meeting or exceeding most people's expectations.

Haha, I just now noticed that 3 people on this forum actually voted for Ragnarok making less than $400M...

 

[Krystal]

Look at the Wednesday-Wednesday drop tomorrow. You'll say "oh that's pretty good, false alarm". Then, on Thursday, the drop from last week will be big again, and you'll go back to saying it's a "bad trend" again. It never ends.

.

Right. So I checked and the worst 1st Wednesday to 2nd Wednesday MCU drop was -56.6%
the best was -41.3%

Ragnarok made $6,148,000m last Wednesday -- if it falls-- -56.6% or more(@$2,668,000) would you agree that it's an unsettling trend?

If it fell close to -50% -- I'd probably calm down and say, "Yeah, Tuesday was a bump in the road."

So we'll see in 24 hours. My glass half full feeling is this movie doesn't have great legs in this country and it doesn't have anything to do with JL.

But it's Worldwide is going to be big regardless because that's already in the bank.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Haha, I just now noticed that 3 people on this forum actually voted for Ragnarok making less than $400M...

It almost feels like they voted what they thought it'd make domestically without realizing the poll was talking about worldwide.

 

[Erzengel]

Are we going to have any word of foreign gross prior to Friday?

Nice to see this move at $700M before this weekend.

 

[Iceman]

I don't understand people here. It's unreasonable to expect Thor even with Hulk to do Avengers box office.

850 to 900 million WW seems aok to me

I think everyone agrees with that. Anything specific that made you post that?

 

[BigThor]

I don't understand people here. It's unreasonable to expect Thor even with Hulk to do Avengers box office.

850 to 900 million WW seems aok to me

I was expecting 900 million, looks like we're not going to get that much less than that.

Now I was HOPING for a billion, but hoping and expecting are two different things.

 

[HammerDown]

Are we going to have any word of foreign gross prior to Friday?

Nice to see this move at $700M before this weekend.

I think the international totals update on Thursdays if i am not mistaken. At least i think it did last week.

 

[HammerDown]

Forbes

'Thor: Ragnarok' Reaches $100 Million In China

Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok collected $2.2 million in China on Tuesday, its 12th day in release there to cross the $100 million box office threshold. It’s the 9th of the MCU’s pictures to reach $100 million out of the Disney (NYSEIS) unit’s 17 releases there, and should top out at about $110 million when it finishes its run. That’s roughly half of what the hammer-wielding Norse god of thunder has conjured up stateside.

Thor has exhibited some brawny holding power in Chinese theaters this week, dipping just 5 percent on Tuesday and another 5 percent on Wednesday. It will likely hold the top ranking ahead of newcomer Murder on the Orient express until Friday, when DC’s Justice League storms the Middle Kingdom and usurps most of the screens from the two Hollywood holdovers.

Among Marvel’s three China releases in 2017, Thor will finish in second place behind Spider-Man: Homecoming’s $116 million, and about 10 percent ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, which took in $100.7 million from the mainland’s multiplexes. It will also just slide by Doctor Strange, which scored a $109 million final gross in China in 2016.


The Marvel releases have become curiously range-bound in China during the past 18 months, with all of the last four pictures collecting between $100 million and $116 million there. The last movie to break out of that range was Captain America: Civil War, which became Marvel’s second-biggest PRC release by taking in $180 million in Chinese coin in May, 2016. Marvel’s biggest blockbuster ever in China was Avengers: Age of Ultron, which raked in $240 million in 2015.

Although Marvel overall has become stuck in that range, the Thor franchise has grown nicely over the past six years. The Taika Waititi-directed Ragnarok’s final PRC gross will double that of its predecessor, Thor: The Dark World, and will be a more than seven-fold increase over the first Thor picture, which arrived there in 2011.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/11/15/thor-ragnarok-reaches-100-million-in-china/#6b2f87b76e5f

 

[Spiderdevil]

What a great past year for Marvel

All 4 movies (Doctor Strange, GOGT2, Homecoming and Ragnarok) doing so well for stand-alone non-ensemble movies, all on relatively modest budget (<200 Mil) and all 4 being well received critically

 

[BigThor]

GOTG is kind of an ensemble.

 

[JSSTyger]

Box office oughtta be right around Guardians 2 and Spider-Man Homecoming