Actually kind of the opposite Thor has Pirates 4, Hangover II, and Kung Fu Panda 2 in the few weeks after it
All Cap has is Cowboys and and yes HP before hand. But having something come out in front is better than right after
Neither are really ideal spots, but Cap's is slightly better I think
Um...not the opposite? If you're familiar with box office image, first two weekends are what counts. How you open and what'd percentage did you drop second weekend. By the time Pirates comes out, Thor will have had its time. Most movies--even Inception--enjoy three weekends of plundering at best. Hangover II isn't really even a consideration either for this market.
"yes, HP" before hand. Harry Potter is the final movie in the series, the last movie of which earned 125 million in 3 days. That's insane. Couple this with speciality screening of Part I and Part II back-to-back, individuals who will wait until the second weekend to avoid crowds, and Cap will have some serious competition come its opening weekend. Anybody who works intelligently in the industry will tell you this. Plus, on a foreign side, audiences are going to be much more interested in seeing Harry Potter than Captain America, just due to current geopolitical reasons.
Cowboys & Aliens is the same ComicCon demographic as Captain America, and with names like Jon Favreau, Daniel Craig, Harrison Ford, and yes even Damon Lindelof (for all the Lost fanboys and girls), that's a powerful film combination that could pose some serious competition. Plus, and it not being technically a superhero film (although a graphic novel) could aid it in a summer packed to the brim with comic book movies. However, the one saving hope for Cap is that Cowboys may need another weekend to garner good word of mouth due to its lack of recognizability. This could change though with an aggressive marketing campaign that pushes the film's stronger market selling points like star and creative bankability--as well as just seducing trailers like its teaser.
I love Captain America. I worked on the film. However, its release date is an extremely tough one, sandwiched between two heavy hitters like that. And honestly, it's quite possible that Harry Potter may just own the entire month of July.