Romney and Edwards
GOP is still anyone's ball game. Huckabee has been going strong on the final stretch, but none the less, Romney, Rudy, and Thompson's numbers are all still strong enough that they can pull ahead of him. Hell, even Paul can pull the dark horse win off.
I personally believe Edwards will take the Democratic ticket. Afterall, primary polling is incredibly inaccurate. I believe Obama and Hilary likely lead the polls based on name recognition alone but name recognition does not get out of the vote. The same can be said about Edwards, but I think to a much lesser extent. And because of that, I believe his poll numbers will be much more accurate than Hilary or Obama's, who people will say they will vote for to pollers based on name recognition, but not neccessarily be willing to put in the effort to vote for. Whoever wins Iowa will snow ball. They will still have a fight ahead of them, but they will have the leg up.
If I had to guess (and I'd rather not as right now the Republican primary is too close to call, but I will), I'd say Edwards and Huckabee. I think the Republican primary will come down to Super Tuesday (or Super Duper Tuesday as its being called this year, I believe). That will give some of the southern and middle states a real voice in the primary. I don't think Romney will be able to take a lot of those states, same with Rudy G..
Huckabee is bleeding in the position of lead dog. Huckabee has no shot in New Hampshire and the fact he is not dominating South Carolina polling indicates a weak organization nationally.
Perhaps, but you underestimate the importance of a win in Iowa. You win Iowa and you are suddenly the media's only focus. They may as well announce you as the winner of the primary. That will give him a huge boost that will allow him to take South Carolina.
I plan on voting Ron Paul out of protest at the sad state of the Republican party.
I have, however, started to really like Romney the more I learn about him. He would be my choice out of the real candidates.
Honestly, I'm not impressed with any of the nominees for the '08 election, on either side.
Winning Iowa will help a lot - however he is not winning New Hampshire, period.
Winning Iowa will give him a boost in Southern States - and I have no doubt he will start leading in those states after such an event, but that wasn't the point I was making.
He is a candidate tailor made for South Carolina voters. The fact that he is not winning that state right now, with all the media attention he has had, the fact his name is now recognizable - indicates a weakness in his organization.
My predictions, which I will not edit...
Hmmm....way too early to call, but I'm going with Clinton vs Romney....
2) Clinton vs McCain
3 and 4) Obama vs McCain or Romney
Guiliani's strategy is too risky...after primaries and caucus of him coming fourth and fifth...he can't stay in the game....rolling the die on Florida has never helped anyone...
Huckabee won't go the distance...the New Hampshire primary is few days after Iowa...his "possible" win in Iowa (and it looks like Romney is closing in on him) will be overshadowed by a third, fourth, of fifth place win less than a week later.......New Hampshire has been a better predictor of nomination than Iowa.....
I don't think Edwards is going to do it......he doesn't have money...and his only structure is in Iowa....which he has a chance, but not foregone conclusion.....he isn't going to blow anyone out. Fox News has been trying to destroy his campaign. I think he'd be the hardest Democrat to beat in general, but Clinton and Obama can take him on in future states....
We'll see if I look a fool and should stay out of political predictions....
I'm still not sure that Paul is entirely unfeasible. Its unlikely, but possible. If he can finish in the top 3 and upset 2 of the major four candidates (Guiliani, Thompson, Romney, and Huckabee) in Iowa, then the media will pretty much have to give him attention. If this does happen, alongside his grassroots movement, if he can place highly in New Hampshire and South Carolina he can go into Super Tuesday with a real shot at the nomination.
That being said, I'll probably vote Richardson for the same reason you vote Paul. Dissatisfaction.
Yeah, you're right. He should be winning South Carolina by a landslide...but keep in mind, all of the media attention is really only a month old. Winning Iowa will give him the credibility he needs to take South Carolina, and from there he will take it on Super Tuesday. That would be my prediction.
Whats your thoughts on New Hampshire though? Say Romney has a strong second place showing in Iowa and edges out McCain in Iowa. I would think his Mormon background would hurt him in SC - but it has not done so yet.
I like Romney's chances because he is rolling in dough and he is the only candidate that currently has appeal in all the states. McCain is big in New Hampshire - but is behind Thompson in South Carolina. Huckabee is far behind in New Hampshire and (I believe) all northern states.
I really want Obama to win, one because I hate him less than the rest of the people running and two, it would shut up a crapload of people.