X3 Box Office Tracker

[ProductionMusic]

And another 22-25 just from Japan in September.

There will be DVD Copies of the Movie on the Street & Online for Download by then. With Region 1 Release in October. I highly doubt Japan will help the International Box Office that much. There will be DVD Wuality Copies on the Street everywhere & Online for Download by then. I highly doubt FOX is expecthing anything from Japans Box Office

 

[Avalanche]

They X-Men films in production? What are you talking about? I have heard about there being "spinoffs" which are not X-Men movies. The last time Fox made comic book spinoff movie it flopped(Electra).

I think the fact that Elektra was a very, very bad film might have something to do with that.

 

[Celestial]

There will be DVD Copies of the Movie on the Street & Online for Download by then. With Region 1 Release in October. I highly doubt Japan will help the International Box Office that much. There will be DVD Wuality Copies on the Street everywhere & Online for Download by then. I highly doubt FOX is expecthing anything from Japans Box Office

I don't think that piracy is going to hit the Japanese box office as much as you think. There was a similar situation in 2004 when Van Helsing opened in Japan in September and still took $30m. A bigger cause for concern is that X2 only took around $15m.

 

[superion]

FOR THE LAST TIME I NEVER SAID X-MEN 3 HAD DISAPPOINTING INTERNATIONAL #S. I AM SAYING X-MEN 3 IS A DISAPPOINTMENT DOMESTICALLY. MANY PROFITABLE MOVIE FRANCHISES WERE ENDED DUE TO A WEAK DOMESTIC GROSS DESPITE STRONG INTERNATIONAL #S. BATMAN AND ROBIN MADE A LOT OF MONEY OVERSEAS BUT, THE FRANCHISE DIED FOR 8 YEARS BECAUSE OF THE DOMESTIC GROSS.

This is where I disagree. You can't igonre overseas business and just concentrate on domestic. Total BO is what matters. The first Resident Evil only made $40 million domestic on a $33 million budget but it added over $62 million overseas making it a profitable film and it got a sequel.

While Batman and Robin did slightly better overseas then domestic $131 million to $107 million it wasn't a great enough difference to make the film profitable with its $125 million budget prior to advertising.

The reason that Harry Potter is the number movie character despite what Entertainment Weekly says are those huge internationl numbers the Potter films put up. Every film doubles its domestic gross internationally. Worldwide the last Harry Potter movie was the biggest film of the year not the last Star Wars film.

Whether or not X3 will be profitable on its theatrical run alone depends on that $210 production figure. If it already includes the advertising amount of $50 to $60 million it will be fine. If it doesn't and the actual cost with marketing is something like $260 to $270 million X3 would need more then $500 million worldwide to be profitable and we can all see that is out of reach by now.

 

[ProductionMusic]

I don't think that piracy is going to hit the Japanese box office as much as you think. There was a similar situation in 2004 when Van Helsing opened in Japan in September and still took $30m. A bigger cause for concern is that X2 only took around $15m.

We are in different times then Van Helsing & X2

 

[Advanced Dark]

X3 was not dissapointing domestically in any fashion whatsoever. Every financial analyst out there who lives and breathes studying these companies expected X3 to hit 250-350 worldwide. That's it. Not a single boxoffice site expected anywhere's near a 122 million 4 day opening, and you won't find anyone (before X3 was released) that would say that it making more than X2 was for certain and that it would be a dissapointment if it didn't. It exceed everyone's expecations. I think people were surprised at the huge opening weekend and the drop off was not unusual considering that huge opening weekend and the fact that the drop off % was in comparison to a holiday weekend.

 

[superion]

X3 was not dissapointing domestically in any fashion whatsoever. Every financial analyst out there who lives and breathes studying these companies expected X3 to hit 250-350 worldwide. That's it. Not a single boxoffice site expected anywhere's near a 122 million 4 day opening, and you won't find anyone (before X3 was released) that would say that it making more than X2 was for certain and that it would be a dissapointment if it didn't. It exceed everyone's expecations. I think people were surprised at the huge opening weekend and the drop off was not unusual considering that huge opening weekend and the fact that the drop off % was in comparison to a holiday weekend.

You are correct it was foolish to expect a jump from X2's $214 million to $300 million though $250 was not that unrealistic. That just makes me wonder why Fox would invest $210 million in the movie. When Spiderman 2 budget jumped to $200 million I could understand given the runway success of the first one but nothing X2 did warranted such a huge increase in the budget.

 

[BMM]

X3 was not dissapointing domestically in any fashion whatsoever. Every financial analyst out there who lives and breathes studying these companies expected X3 to hit 250-350 worldwide. That's it. Not a single boxoffice site expected anywhere's near a 122 million 4 day opening, and you won't find anyone (before X3 was released) that would say that it making more than X2 was for certain and that it would be a dissapointment if it didn't. It exceed everyone's expecations. I think people were surprised at the huge opening weekend and the drop off was not unusual considering that huge opening weekend and the fact that the drop off % was in comparison to a holiday weekend.

A 250-350 million dollar worldwide estimate isn't inspiring . . . particularly for a movie like The Last Stand . . . and simply meeting these kinds of low expectations doesn't equal greatness. A 250 million dollar domestic estimate should have been a perfectly attainable sum, especially given The Last Stand's weak competition. The large opening weekend was nice but does little to speak for why the remainder of the film's earning potential isn't increasing upon previous successes quite as well as some would have hoped. Sure, I wasn't expecting the kind of growth demonstrated via X-Men and X2--I knew that would be asking too much from this production . . . but for a movie heralded as the great final epic of an already ever-increasingly successful franchise, I would have expected more from The Last Stand despite any financial analyst's less than stellar expectations.

 

[SnowAngel]

I personally loved the movie and i'm very happy its doing so well. But has anyone taken in to consideration of the other comic book movies that are suppose to come out this summer, what about Superman Returns?, Superman is such an national icon of course many are going to see it. And let's not forget Spider-Man, it had an amazing opening for the first two films.

 

[Carp Man]

I personally loved the movie and i'm very happy its doing so well. But has anyone taken in to consideration of the other comic book movies that are suppose to come out this summer, what about Superman Returns?, Superman is such an national icon of course many are going to see it. And let's not forget Spider-Man, it had an amazing opening for the first two films.

Well let me put it this way. SR will do well until POTC opens. Then we'll see what kind of legs it has. Word of mouth will be huge in determing it's suscess. If word of mouth is good, it will do very well, if it's not, it will be in serious trouble. SM 3 ? Nothing to say there, the 1st 2 movies speek volums. Ghost rider will do well. Marvel will be suscusfull thru 2007, because DC has zip till the sequel to BB, in 08. Marvel has Ghost Rider, SM 3, and FF 2, in 07.

 

[phantom47]

9 X-Men: The Last Stand $4,841,950 -38.1% $224,506,162

 

[Carp Man]

Ok. Weekend domestic actual #'s are in. $ 4,841,950. Bout 442 thousand more then estimate. 38.1% drop, from last weekend. Updated #'s below.

 

[Carp Man]

Have you ever read the back of your ticket stub ? " The management reserves the right to revoke the LISCENSE GUARANTEED by this ticket by refunding the purchse price. Good only for date and performance indicated". When you purchase a ticket to see any movie, you have 1 liscence to that movie. Anyone know what that means ? Pop quizz here. I didn't till today.

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ I just bought some IMAX stock today in anticipation of Superman breaking some records for the company. Just 500 shares.

 

[josh8]

Are you saying the actors and actresses of X-Men 3 who said the budget of X-Men 3 was over 200 million and box office mojo are both wrong?

actors and actresses can say whatever they want and are often wrong. anyways, when they say $200mil film in interviews, i think they're just saying it in hyperbole. as for BOM, they often correct their budget info when more reliable info is released. i'm not saying they're wrong. i just have a hard time believing FOX would spend that much. it's too unprecedented for them, especially since so many are convinced that tom rothman hates the franchise.

anyways, back on topic... this weekend's hold was really good. the recovery was bound to happen, but it'll probably be shortlived since superman is right around the corner. x3 has been consistently tracking $25mil above x2 for some time now so i'm predicting a $240mil finish.

 

[BMM]

^ I just bought some IMAX stock today in anticipation of Superman breaking some records for the company. Just 500 shares.

Haha. That's probably a good idea. Returns looks to be bringing in money. This was posted in the Returns forum:


"MovieTickets.com said Friday that it was selling three times more tickets to "Superman Returns" five days before its opening than it did for "X-Men: The Last Stand" at the same point in that movie's sales cycle. And Fandango said Friday that 25% of all tickets it was selling that day and the day before were for "Superman Returns."

http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showthread.php?t=239148


That's a lot of tickets, and if the same holds true for IMAX, you could be looking at a nice bump in your stock.

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ Yeah I think so too. It's only 500 shares but a nice bump up to 10-11+ short term is a nice gain.

 

[PowersOfMind]

X3 is doing really well considering how some big movies released during the summer dont do that great. Especially within the last few years. Its not like X3 is performing way below expectations. Plus the movies are expensive( $10 a ticket here in NYC).

There is no doubt the Superman is gonna bring in the money this summer. I havent seen much hype surrounding it outside of the internet but I knows its gonna do really well.

But I must be a truly jaded person because the fact that Superman stands for "truth, justice, and the American way" just annoys the hell out of me.

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ Not much hype? Have you been to the theatres and supermarkets. Supes is everywhere.

 

[PowersOfMind]

Im not talking about advertising, God knows there is plenty of that. Im talking about just people, aside from the die hard fans and those on boards like this, the response I get is really ho-hum. I ask around and most of the time people tell me they dont want to see it or they dont know if they are going to see it.

 

[BMM]

I find it to be the opposite.

 

[crappymovie]

I guess it's better if there's "little hype" before the film, then after the film comes out and people are disappointed...like X3.

I think the reception to Superman seems reminiscent of Batman Begins - cautious optimism. There's definitely a greater awarness for Superman, and the film looks a bit more....cleaner than X3, which will get the family demographic but might lose some teenagers etc.

I see the opening of Superman to be less than X3, but will have far stronger legs, and will probably outgross it both domestically and overseas.

 

[RedIsNotBlue]

I guess it's better if there's "little hype" before the film, then after the film comes out and people are disappointed...like X3.

I think the reception to Superman seems reminiscent of Batman Begins - cautious optimism. There's definitely a greater awarness for Superman, and the film looks a bit more....cleaner than X3, which will get the family demographic but might lose some teenagers etc.

I see the opening of Superman to be less than X3, but will have far stronger legs, and will probably outgross it both domestically and overseas.

Stop the trolling now.

 

[crappymovie]

Im not talking about advertising, God knows there is plenty of that. Im talking about just people, aside from the die hard fans and those on boards like this, the response I get is really ho-hum. I ask around and most of the time people tell me they dont want to see it or they dont know if they are going to see it.

Yes, I went down to the senior's home, and they all asked me "What's a Superman? Does he take care of the Brita filters here?" So, I guess this means the film is going to flop...

Isn't it great when people assess public awarness/success by asking friends and family about the film? Because they definitely represent the entire population....

 

[Advanced Dark]

Superman should make more money than X3. It has a nice little window before Pirates. It really depends on how Pirates box office takes away from it.