🇰🇵 The North Korea Thread

[ludovica]

Speaking of Nobel Peace prize...

Here we have Moon playing Trump(et):
Trump Should Win The Nobel Peace Prize, South Korea's Moon Says
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...the-nobel-peace-prize-south-korea-s-moon-says

Moon was responding to a letter from the wife of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung — a leader who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts at making peace with North Korea. The letter said Moon deserves a Nobel for his progress this time around with the North, triggering Moon's mention of Trump.
"It's President Trump who should receive the Nobel Prize. We only need to take peace," Moon said, as translated by NPR's Korean interpreter Se Eun Gong.
(...)
The South Korean leader also has diplomatic reasons to keep Trump aligned with his goals for peace on the peninsula: Moon told his Cabinet he'd like to see South Korea "actively operate the trilateral channel for dialogue between the North and the U.S.," signaling Seoul will continue to play a mediating role as Pyongyang and Washington make their way toward their bilateral summit.

And here we have Republican opportunism at its finest:
House Republicans nominate Donald Trump for Nobel peace prize
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/02/donald-trump-nobel-peace-prize

Although the letter copiously praises Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and says there is “no one more deserving of the Committee’s recognition in 2019 than President Trump for his tireless work to bring peace to our world”, there may be political motivations at play as well.

Messer, a three-term incumbent from south-eastern Indiana, is in a ferocious three-way primary next week for the Republican nomination for the US Senate. One of the main bones of contention between him and his two main opponents, the congressman Todd Rokita and the businessman Mike Braun, is over which candidate is most dedicated to supporting Trump. The winner faces the Democratic incumbent, Joe Donnelly, in a state that Trump won by 19 points in 2016.

Four other Republican Senate hopefuls have signed the letter. Neither Kevin Cramer of North Dakota nor Marsha Blackburn faces competitive primaries in their fight to win competitive Senate seats in red states, but two others do.

Evan Jenkins of West Virginia signed the letter, as did Jim Renacci of Ohio. Both face competitive primaries next week in state won by Trump with incumbent Democrats. Other signatories include Mark Meadows of North Carolina, who leads the hard-right Freedom Caucus, and Steve King of Iowa, who has long praised far-right anti-immigration figures in European politics, such as Geert Wilders.

By the way, the finest people in there.


Finally, a reality check:
Trump winning a Nobel peace prize for North Korea ‘idiotic’, Q&A told
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...l-peace-prize-for-north-korea-idiotic-qa-told

Gessen, famously critical of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, summed it up thus: “Well if Trump’s claiming complete success [then] let’s give him the Nobel peace prize.
“Come on, he has tweeted insults and now we’re supposed to think that has made an actual policy difference in the world? How idiotic is that conversation,” she said.
(...)
Tur, who covered the Trump campaign in the lead-up to the 2016 election and is in Australia for the Sydney writers’ festival, agreed to be the “idiot of the bunch” by indulging the idea.
But she said it was a mistake to ascribe too much motive to the president who “operates in a moment-to-moment basis”.
Trump suggests meeting Kim on border as South Korean leader touts Nobel
Read more
“I think it’s a little ridiculous to ascribe a madman strategy to him, I don’t think he intended to keep people off balance and that’s his big negotiating tactic,” she said.

 

[Aximili86]

Err, Gessen's a pretty hardcore anti-Trump type though, of course that would be her view on it.

But hey, if it's good enough for Moon, it's good enough for me. *Shrugs* He's pretty diametrically opposed to the guy policy-wise, but if he's pushing for a Nobel for Cap'n Carrot, that kinda says it all.

I don't even think Trump should get the Prize, I mean Obama shouldn't have got it that early before doing anything either, but Trump doesn't really deserve it. That being said, going by the standards this thing gets handed out by, if this Korea stuff does work out you're pretty much going to have to just out of sheer consistency. And that's going to be goddman hilarious seeing newsanchors shedding tears & **** the same way they did upon him getting elected.


​

 

[Elayis]

 

[Aximili86]

That doesn't seem remotely fair, especially given the actual summit's forthcoming.

Even with the Trump/Pompeo/Kim Yong-chol meetings, we don't know what they've been discussing. It's more than a smiley photo-op.

And let's be real, immediate & total denuclearization was never a realistic thing. That's the opening gambit, theirs is "none", and you try to hash out an acceptable middle point, which for us would be a cease to any and all ICBM testing and a verifiable/provable (eg. IAEA inspectors) dismantling of the nukes over time.

Whether they agree to that or not who knows, but this is an initial hashing out of potential frameworks. The big deal is the meeting with Kim himself, but assuming nothing substantial went down with their #2 is jumping to conclusions. We basically know jack other than they've met, not what went on.

 

[Elayis]

The point is we're the only ones making any concessions. Hell, Trump is even trying to get US taxpayers (or Singapore) to pay for Kim Jong Un's hotel for the summit. What exactly is the US getting out of this meeting? NK has committed to nothing, and these talks have gotten them the political clout they need to get talks with China, SK and Russia, something that they hadn't been able to get in years. Kim Jong Choi is the first NK official to visit the WH since 2000. All Trump has done is legitimatize a potential nuclear threat, and made it easier for them to get support overseas. There should be no meeting unless NK is willing to seriously negotiate and compromise.

The sad thing is Trump doesn't even realize how foolish NK has made him look.

 

[Aximili86]

What have we conceded, exactly?

We backed out on the date when it didn't look like they were serious, they got all kiss-ass-y and changed their tune, then we let the original date stand again.

From what I know we haven't agreed to anything yet (and if we have it's not public, therefore neither do you), just to meet. We've offered to help them out economically and with their infrastructure grid, if this all works out and we're satisfied with the proof they're moving on their nuke program. That's not a concession, that's offering a carrot with the caveat they have to do more to prove it this time than they have in the past, no more deception.

Granted, it's optimistic that it actually plays out that way, but that seems to be the offer as-stands. No way NK's going to dismantle all their **** immediately, by the end of this year or whatever, but no serious person expected them to.

If what comes out of this is "North Korean and South Korean families can cross and see each other, the ICBM program specifically is closed, and there's an agreed-upon framework to stop making bombs and gradually hand over the ones they already have over about a decade", that's going to be a huge deal.

No, you don't trust the North Koreans to deliver, you demand to be able to verify anything and everything they say with IAEA inspectors. But at the same time, you've gotta offer a carrot and try to show them they're better off playing ball than not. That's not US weakness, or Trump weakness, that's just what every diplomatic summit over issues like this is.

It's not like we'll be giving ground on the US/SK military drills or general US presence on the peninsula or anything. So far it seems to be "ditch the nukes, we'll feed your peasants and show you the wonders of electricity!", at least that's what's coming from Big Orange himself. Beyond that, we don't know a thing of what Pompeo and his counterpart have been discussing because it just happened and they haven't talked about it. Seems like "they've played us!" is way premature.

 

[Elayis]

The meeting is in itself a concession, especially when no guarantees have been made about its outcome. Trump meeting with NK officials (which goes against nearly 20 years of established norms) is a concession. The US cancelling a SK military exercise out of fear of angering NK is a concession. Trump praising Kim Jong Un (something I'm unaware of any former president doing about a NK dictator) is a concession.

And I haven't even mentioned how dangerous it is that a meeting like this is being conducted by someone as inept, ignorant, vain, thin skinned and short tempered as Donald Trump.

 

[Aximili86]

Jesus Christ that's out there.

So, we shouldn't have met with Gorbachev to try to work things out, as nothing was concrete and we were putting a certain degree of faith/optimism in the talks.

Any attempted peace talks with the Taliban - nah, meeting them would be a concession, validating them as legitimate. Better not try!

Look, Kim's a bad guy, about as bad as they get. But talks don't go anywhere when they're not in-person, with a certain degree of at least openness to them going somewhere. You don't trust them, you don't kiss their ass, but you don't just stonewall them completely either. We'll offer something in economic aid, see if they're open to letting outside inspectors corroborate their nuke stuff, if that's the case there's some room here for something.

It's not going to be 100% of everything we want, probably not even 85%, but there's an opportunity here at least. We'd be morons for not at least being open to any change of tune from them, really the only other option is taking their stuff out by force, and nobody wants everything that that situation brings - them or us.

And yes, I'm wary of Trump himself on this too. He's got Pompeo & Mattis around him though, two people he actually seems to respect as much as a person like Trump can respect anyone, and they're about as real-deal on this stuff as it gets. Those aren't guys NK's able to bend over and screw on this.

 

[Elayis]

With the USSR we were coming to the table from a position of strength. NK is also a rogue state of only 25 million people with basically zero allies, and very poor.

Trump seems be falling over himself to make this meeting happen, and is willing to make all kinds of qualifications and concessions to make it happen. First this was a meeting about disarmament, now it's simply to "feel the other side out." The only reason why he's so gung ho about it is he sees it as an easy win, something he can use for his re-election.

Trump has flat out stated that he's the only person that matters when it comes to negotiations. He thinks he can get NK to agree to complete disarmament in two hours of discussions!

 

[Aximili86]

And how in the hell are we coming to the North Korean discussions in anything but a position of strength? They're far worse-off economically than the Soviets were in the late 80s, and while having a huge land army aren't anything on other nations we've had major negotiations with over the years, like China.

The only difference here is Trump. And I get that. But just writing it off before it's even begun is pretty knee-jerk pessimistic There are definite potential gains here - whether they come to pass is anyone's guess right now, but just acting like meeting with the guy is some miscalculation is ridiculous. We backed out, Kim changed the regime's tone to something more conciliatory, giving the sense that they want this too. You pursue that, you at least try.

The alternative's infinitely worse.

 

[Sithborg]

Kim Jun-un is a tinpot dictator who we have given legitimacy too. Just like the whole moving the embassy into Jerusalem. Gave things for nothing.

 

[Elayis]

I think Trump and his administration simply don't understand NK, how they think and what they want. They're ethnic nationalists who believe the Korean race is superior to all others, and that they've been at continual war with the world since at least the 1950s.

Just take a look at this excerpt from Mark Bowden's illuminating article "How to deal with North Korea":

The myth holds that Korea and the Kim dynasty are one and the same. It is built almost entirely on the promise of standing up to a powerful and menacing foreign enemy. The more looming the threat—and Trump excels at looming—the better the narrative works for Kim Jong Un. Nukes are needed to repel this threat. They are the linchpin of North Korea’s defensive strategy, the single weapon standing between barbarian hordes and the glorious destiny of the Korean people—all of them, North and South. Kim is the great leader, heir to divinely inspired ancestors who descended from Mount Paektu with mystical, magical powers of leadership, vision, diplomatic savvy, and military genius. Like his father, Kim Jong Il, and grandfather Kim Il Sung before him, Kim is the anointed defender of all Koreans, who are the purest of all races. Even South Korea, the Republic of Korea, should be thankful for Kim because, if not for him, the United States would have invaded long ago.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/

The biggest problem people from the West face with tackling NK is thinking they've just like us, with the same wants and desires. They're not rational, and think and behave on an entirely different playing field. My biggest fear is that Trump and Kim will talk past each other, and Trump will make false assumptions about what NK will do.

 

[Aximili86]

Of course they're rational. A twisted type of rational, but rational all the same. They've just been playing the long game, two steps forward, one step back, over 30 years.

The U.S., no matter who the leader is, can't stand for that anymore once they're right on the cusp of having a reliable, deliverable ICBM and a nuke small enough to fit on it.

He's a young man, he wants to actually live into his 40s and 50s to oppress his people as all these scumabags do. There's going to be some new tack on the nukes at least, or he knows that's not coming to pass. He's not going to fully denuclearize immediately, of course not, but this guy's smart enough to know that they cross that line of being able to fit a nuke into a warhead, he's got a big target on his head.

 

[Elayis]

Of course they're rational. A twisted type of rational, but rational all the same. They've just been playing the long game, two steps forward, one step back, over 30 years.

The U.S., no matter who the leader is, can't stand for that anymore once they're right on the cusp of having a reliable, deliverable ICBM and a nuke small enough to fit on it.

He's a young man, he wants to actually live into his 40s and 50s to oppress his people as all these scumabags do. There's going to be some new tack on the nukes at least, or he knows that's not coming to pass. He's not going to fully denuclearize immediately, of course not, but this guy's smart enough to know that they cross that line of being able to fit a nuke into a warhead, he's got a big target on his head.

I think that an assumption you can't make unless you actually know Kim. He's grown up in a dynasty, groomed since birth to be dictator, to have his every whim catered too. NK is also completely cut off from the rest of the world, who knows what goes on inside there heads.

Like I said, I think it's a mistake to think they have the same values and thought processes as we do. It's same kind of thinking that got us in trouble when dealing with jihadists. They don't see the world the same way we in the West do.

And with North Korea, according to Latz and Malhotra, Trump gave up too much leverage by agreeing so easily to the summit in Singapore. Trump, Malhotra wrote in March for CNBC, “has given the North Korean leader everything he wants,” and that his decision to meet “validates Kim Jong Un’s claim that only a nuclear-armed North Korea will be treated with respect by the Trump administration.”

“What’s the best thing you can say about Donald Trump as a negotiator?” I asked Malhotra recently. This was before Trump canceled on Kim.

There was a long pause.

“What I will say is that at least in the North Korea deal … at least he has tried to leave the door open to say this may not happen,” he said. “He’s realizing, a little bit, that he could get completely trapped. And you don’t want to trap yourself in such a way that the only way to look good is to do something really stupid.”

After Trump indeed backed out last week, Malhotra was “not surprised,” he told me. “He was not going to get a deal that was even close to as good as the Iran deal he killed. So the question was how to get out of the mess.”

Latz said he expects the summit to happen still at some point, and sooner rather than later. Why? Because what made Trump take the meeting in the first place remains the case. With the other negotiating setbacks, the worrisome swirl of the Mueller probe and the midterms mere months away, Trump needs a win. “He got himself into an almost untenable situation from a leverage perspective because he had communicated that he really wanted a deal here,” Latz said. “Despite the fact that Trump canceled and sent the signal he doesn’t really need the deal, he does really need the deal.”

North Korea experts worry about the incoherence and disorganization of Trump and his administration and that they could pay too little attention to tiny but critical details or agree to some type of pact without a firm and enforceable definition of “denuclearization.”

But regardless of what happens from here, a former Trump Organization executive told me, Trump will do what he does. He will try to spin it into a win.

“He believes he’s in a position of strength no matter where or when he is,” the executive said. “You have to understand that. If you knock Donald on his ass, he will tell you the best position to be in is on your ass.”

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/01/donald-trump-deals-negotiation-art-of-deal-218584

 

[Sithborg]

It sounds like President Moon has made some significant progress. Denuclearization steps, with UN inspectors. Plans to reconnect border towns, even with rails. Even a joint Olympic bid in 2032. Guess we will see how we screw it up, between Trump being an idiot and the military not exactly thrilled with any sort of drawdown of forces on the penninsula.

 

[Aximili86]

And, of course, none of that has jack-all to do with the new tack taken on this in an American sense post-Obama. Nah. Coincidence.

 

[Sithborg]

No, I would put it more in President Moon's hands than Trumps. Moon has been doing the diplomatic heavy lifting. Making huge strides to normalize relations.

 

[Aximili86]

And why exactly do you think Kim's more amenable to doing things the nice way lately?

Tin pot dictators like being, you know, alive to be able to continue being horrible people. Your back's to the wall, the other option's not looking good, you tend to put on your friendly-hat.

 

[MaceB]

I don't think that Trump is putting Kim's back to the wall much more in particular than other administrations. I think Kim knows this is his time to act because 1) Trump is willing to work with him without preconditions 2) his nuclear program has faced problems recently, and 3) Moon is workin it.

I'll say what I've said from the very beginning. Without protocols that allow for accountability, any deal is moot until proven otherwise. With North Korea, we need to be able to separate rhetoric from action; fact from fiction.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

And, of course, none of that has jack-all to do with the new tack taken on this in an American sense post-Obama. Nah. Coincidence.

Yup. Cuz Trump didn't cause the NK nuke program to go belly up which is probably the biggest reason Kim was launching so many tests, throwing tantrums as the regime always has. If you want to claim Trump with his general attitude accomplished something well that's just a delusional position. There is no credible threat of a US preemptive strike to NK. And they and every country in the neighborhood know it. Trump and his divisive sabre rattling was a show for his base at home. It didn't move the needle towards peace. Agai, Kim came to the table because his program had a major setback and he has apparently continued with some kind of advancement of his aims. What he got from the president since the BS fire and fury talk has been legitimacy on the world stage and kind words from Trump which I am sure would have both been thrown into Obama's face by the GOP and the usual media corners.

 

[CJ]

 

[Donner]

He's so in love with Kim.

 

[Aximili86]

Aw diddums, things aren't as bad as they seem. Let's pout over that fact.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Maybe... I don't know... There's a difference between presidential diplomatic language and sounding like you REALLY like dictators of all stripes?

Nah... That's just sour grapes. Now if you'll excuse me I have to clear my auditory canal of this excess urine that's somehow gotten into it despite being told it was mere precipitation.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

For all the Trump apologists here...

In North Korea, Missile Bases Suggest a Great Deception

Stalled talks with North Korea indicate larger unravelling of progress

North Korea's breakdown of communication