🇰🇵 The North Korea Thread

[ComicBookNerd]

The Trump administration has experienced more short term success in North Korea than any administration since they got the nukes. As for the great diplomatic work... I suspect that he kind of fell into it.

This is where it gets tricky honestly. They've hollowed out the State Department. The head of the CIA was acting as SOS, because the acting SOS was fired before a replacement could come in. They fired several of the top Korean experts on the ambassador staff. And yes... Trump has had success... but like others have said, it's just a really big pill to swallow that "yay, his bluster sure is working!" Because that feels like the only factor that's different here... the Trump personality. That's hard to really clap for. It's like the quarterback accidentally throwing it straight to opposite side in the red zone. Am I happy that my team scored? Hell Yeah! But it didn't really show any talent that I can clap for per say. And they better not start relying on it, cause it probably isn't going to happen again.

Yes, yes though... all that being said, Trump does get a slow clap for this one. At this moment, I'm glad that we are where we are, and I'll just leave it at that.

It seems like the Trump administration just went by common sense (talk to them), so I understand why people aren’t impressed. At the same time, when you contrast that with Bush (axis of evil) & Obama (the single greatest challenge facing America), I give props to the Trump administration for at least talking to them (like Dennis Rodman suggested).

 

[MaceB]

Yeah, it is a very commons sense approach. "Hey, we got a problem with these guys... let's talk with them about it." In normal situations, there'd be terms set, and concessions right off the get go. That's what the experts tell us is best. The meeting itself is valuable, so don't give it up for nothing.

Trump tends to say screw the experts though, and he wants to get conversation going... no terms, let's just talk. I can respect that. Hope it works. There is a risk though with getting all chummy with North Korea. Simply put, they aren't very honest.. or at least they haven't been. The absolute worst thing that could happen here, is that Trump meets with Kim, they stroke each other's egos, and Trump comes back saying "Kim promised to end his nuclear program, trust me!"

If we give them resources for nothing but their word in return, then I'd consider that a failure. With Trump, it seems possible... because it feels as if he doesn't really have any goals. Let's just sit down, and figure this thing out.

 

[ComicBookNerd]

Yeah, it is a very commons sense approach. "Hey, we got a problem with these guys... let's talk with them about it." In normal situations, there'd be terms set, and concessions right off the get go. That's what the experts tell us is best. The meeting itself is valuable, so don't give it up for nothing.

Trump tends to say screw the experts though, and he wants to get conversation going... no terms, let's just talk. I can respect that. Hope it works. There is a risk though with getting all chummy with North Korea. Simply put, they aren't very honest.. or at least they haven't been. The absolute worst thing that could happen here, is that Trump meets with Kim, they stroke each other's egos, and Trump comes back saying "Kim promised to end his nuclear program, trust me!"

If we give them resources for nothing but their word in return, then I'd consider that a failure. With Trump, it seems possible... because it feels as if he doesn't really have any goals. Let's just sit down, and figure this thing out.

Don’t get me wrong, I think everything else he’s done has been terrible & we’re not 100% sure the situation with North Korea will end well, but I’m glad we finally engaged North Korea directly. I wish we would do that with the governments of Iran & Syria as well, but I doubt it.

 

[MaceB]

It's not how I would have preferred it. In my mind, American foreign policy should be a lot like dealing with a bureaucracy. We're a land of laws, and as such... when you talk to us, you aren't just talking to one person but to an army of accountants, politicians, attorneys, investigators, etc. We are the borg. You can talk to us all you want, but we're smart, we're careful, we're deliberate.. you aren't going to pull out a big surprise and make us veer off course. Our laws demand slow, thoughtful action.

Personally, that's what I think is best. However... in this situation... I know that Kim doesn't like that kind of approach. Most third world dictators don't. I guess a one on one meeting is better than no meeting at all. My biggest worry is that North Korea is going in there with an agenda, and we are going in there by the seat of our pants... all hope resting on President Trump not giving away the farm. It's scary.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I see Kim playing Trump like a fiddle. He has no idea what he is doing. He is legitimizing Kim.

 

[MaceB]

Please dear god... all Trump has to remember is one thing... just one thing. Put a sticky note on him or something - JUST DON'T AGREE TO ANYTHING WITHOUT FIRST ASKING YOUR SECURITY TEAM! If Trump wants to go in there and improvise a deal with Kim on the spot, then we are screwed. There's no way he would do that right? There's no way he would agree to anything without talking to a table of US foreign policy experts first, right?

 

[Aximili86]

Trump tends to say screw the experts though

To be fair to the guy, a lot of what he's done is what the experts have been calling for. Guys like Victor Cha are pretty prominent and have been calling for the sanctions noose being tightened (with the caveat that China has to be involved - and they have been with this to a certain modest extent with the crackdown) from what it's been under the Bush & Obama years.

That's not to say Trump fully understands all the ins-and-outs and complexities of all this, he more than likely doesn't. But whatever motivated his pursuit of the economic curbstomp, whether ego blusters or genuinely taking advice, he's done what's been called for for quite a while now. Bush and Obama each flirted with the sanctions stuff, but it's been pretty toothless and not enough.

*Shrugs* Like you said, it's best to just be glad it's happened, rather than try to get into the Orange One's head on it. He's changed tack, put them in a corner, the rest is all pretty inconsequentual given he's taken the action.

Still gotta be cautious & skeptical on how this turns out, you wouldn't trust them. But it's just come out today NK's actually letting SK and US inspectors into that main nuclear test site, that's ****ing big no matter where you are on the political spectrum. Might not pan out entirely, but it's more than the last three guys managed to wrangle out of them.

 

[MaceB]

But it's just come out today NK's actually letting SK and US inspectors into that main nuclear test site, that's ****ing big no matter where you are on the political spectrum. Might not pan out entirely, but it's more than the last three guys managed to wrangle out of them.

If that is the case and North Korea is allowing inspectors, then that is freaking awesome! No one is talking about what they want though. I can't imagine it's out of the kindness of their hearts. They've gotta want something in return.

 

[Aximili86]

Obviously just talk so far, no point taking Kim's word on it until the western/SK guys are actually there on the ground, but yeah. CNN was all over that story today.

As for the "in return", there's going to be something. But Kim's also said he'll no longer demand U.S. troops leave SK, so again, that's new for him.

Concessions to him are fine, depending on what those concessions are. We can give him agricultural aid/economic help if it means feeding all his poor starving peasants, most reasonable people would be fine with that if he's genuinely making positive steps on the nukes. But yeah, we can't stop the joint drills/exercises with SK or remove the troops. But sounds like he's no longer demanding that in this meeting with Moon Jae-in.

*Shrugs* Wait and see, I guess. But even getting to where this is now, is pretty historical.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, let us check out the rubble isn't something that I am exactly excited about.

 

[ludovica]

If that is the case and North Korea is allowing inspectors, then that is freaking awesome! No one is talking about what they want though. I can't imagine it's out of the kindness of their hearts. They've gotta want something in return.

Of course not, but maybe Kim and his entourage came to accept that the vision of his grandfather and the delusions of his father are completely out of time.
Self preservation is their goal, can't count on that if you always escalate things.
They played well at the game of brickmanship, gotta give them that.

People in NA tend to give to little credit to Moon though.
The SK Democratic party is pursuing this policy since 20 years ago, nothing came out of the blue.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Of course not, but maybe Kim and his entourage came to accept that the vision of his grandfather and the delusions of his father are completely out of time.
Self preservation is their goal, can't count on that if you always escalate things.
They played well at the game of brickmanship, gotta give them that.

People in NA tend to give to little credit to Moon though.
The SK Democratic party is pursuing this policy since 20 years ago, nothing came out of the blue.

You also have to wonder if maybe China was able to talk some sense into Kim and that's why they're coming to the table now.

 

[KevanG]

I have zero trust in Un not to be trying something but at the very least it's some sort of progress.

**** Trump though. The only thing he did to 'help' was demand that he get the chance to use nuclear weapons on anyone he didn't see bowing down to his childish demands.

 

[ludovica]

I have zero trust in Un not to be trying something but at the very least it's some sort of progress.

Kim Jong-Un, surname Kim.

 

[Sithborg]

You also have to wonder if maybe China was able to talk some sense into Kim and that's why they're coming to the table now.

Again, they destroyed their nuclear testing site. Probably killed some of their key scientists as well. They are offering this because, really, they can't progress their nuclear program anymore for a long time.

 

[ludovica]

Again, they destroyed their nuclear testing site. Probably killed some of their key scientists as well. They are offering this because, really, they can't progress their nuclear program anymore for a long time.

Besides the truthfulness of those reports (they may be exaggerated), what would NK gain from further escalation?
They pushed the situation to the brink knowingly, it's all part of their strategy.

Again, Kim and the NK elite are in this for self preservation but they also are not comic-booky supervillains, they may/should consider a more stable region as in their own interest, both short and long term.

 

[Aximili86]

You also have to wonder if maybe China was able to talk some sense into Kim and that's why they're coming to the table now.

Well, yeah. But why has China been doing more since early-mid 2017? New unpredictable American d*ckbag in town, basically.

I get it's a hard pill to swallow, that the Orange One's bull**** just might have paid off. But sometimes that's the way it goes - Truman didn't know jack about foreign policy either, he basically single-handedly shifted the perception of Stalin away from friendly "Uncle Joe" to acknowledging all the totalitarian crap he was pulling with the satellite states and the homeland.

It's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, Truman to Trump, but just the broader point that sometimes a blustering *****e like Trump can work for the positive. It's hard to make an argument that the guy hasn't spent a year really twisting their nipples until they're ready to cry Uncle. China's on board, yeah, but did they really have a choice? Things tensening to the point Kim's threatening to nuke Guam & Hawaii, and Donald staring them down pulling a ****ty Clint Eastwood impersonation? A real threat the economy's getting so dire in NK that the generals might eventually turn on Kim and you'll have mass uncertainty on the peninsula (even compared to normally)?

That's not good for anyone, Xi didn't have much of a choice. There wasn't really the prime immediate motivation to slap their little brother around a little, under Clinton/Bush/Obama. Some of that, at least, is totally on Trump here.

If this pans out (still skeptical it will, but on the off-chance it actually does), the public's going to acknowledge that.

 

[ludovica]

Well, yeah. But why has China been doing more since early-mid 2017? New unpredictable American d*ckbag in town, basically.

I get it's a hard pill to swallow, that the Orange One's bull**** just might have paid off. But sometimes that's the way it goes - Truman didn't know jack about foreign policy either, he basically single-handedly shifted the perception of Stalin away from friendly "Uncle Joe" to acknowledging all the totalitarian crap he was pulling with the satellite states and the homeland.

It's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, Truman to Trump, but just the broader point that sometimes a blustering *****e like Trump can work for the positive. It's hard to make an argument that the guy hasn't spent a year really twisting their nipples until they're ready to cry Uncle. China's on board, yeah, but did they really have a choice? Things tensening to the point Kim's threatening to nuke Guam & Hawaii, and Donald staring them down pulling a ****ty Clint Eastwood impersonation?

That's not good for anyone, Xi didn't have much of a choice. There wasn't really the prime immediate motivation to slap their little brother around a little, under Clinton/Bush/Obama. Some of that, at least, is totally on Trump here.

If this pans out (still skeptical it will, but on the off-chance it actually does), the public's going to acknowledge that.

A completely stable Korean peninsula is not, nor ever was or will ever be, in the interest of Japan, Russia or the US. Or China, but they are showing themselves more forward thinking than the other rivals.
Meanwhile, a total normalization of relations between the North and the South is at this point the only way for the North to ensure its long term continued existence and for the South to assert itself out of the American shadow.

The American military industrial complex is not happy, just read what conservative "think" tanks are publishing and pushing.
China is already preparing for a possible new status quo, Xi played his part well.

Really the recent developments are all on Kim and mostly Moon (and their respective entourages).
Moon credited Trump just to bring him on board and not sabotage anything: Trump's rhetoric only speeded up the reciprocal openings, nobody around these parts trusts him.
Believe it or not, here we have more faith in the word of Kim than POTUS nowadays.
SAD!

 

[Aximili86]

And that's the way it'll get spun, yep. Not arguing that won't be the narrative, that Moon'll get the credit.

Which is even partially deserved, Moon's been good here.

Just seems pretty disingenuous to say this would have panned out anyway, with Obama or Bush in the hot-seat. It's a pretty classic case of "things get worse before they get better", things get right to the brink where it's in nobody's interests, and people become willing to look at other avenues.

 

[ludovica]

And that's the way it'll get spun, yep. Not arguing that won't be the narrative, that Moon'll get the credit.

Which is even partially deserved, Moon's been good here.

Just seems pretty disingenuous to say this would have panned out anyway, with Obama or Bush in the hot-seat. It's a pretty classic case of "things get worse before they get better", things get right to the brink where it's in nobody's interests, and people become willing to look at other avenues.

Quite the contrary, some people are trying to spin it as in any way dependent on Trump.

It would have gone even smoother with Hillary, albeit slower maybe.
Just watch when Kim and Moon are awarded the Nobel Peace prize and the Trumpster melts down.
Seriously, how did the actual US administration in any way influence NK, except by being played by them?

 

[Aximili86]

You do know NK's had further sanctions right up their ass for a year now, right? Along with China putting the squeeze on them, which started after Trump came in?

Kim's made actual reforms in the last couple of years about wanting to actually feed his people better, and despite all of his other evil bull**** it seems he was actually making a few strides with it. You can't keep doing that when your economy has an even tighter stranglehold on you, and China's at least semi-backing that sanction action. Couple that with potentially not being able to pay off his generals in the lavish lifestyle they're accomplished to, things have been looking down for Kim on the domestic side of things for some time now, despite his leaps & bounds on the nuclear side.

It's self-prefervation, basically. He's feeling less secure these days, and is looking for a way to save face. Part of that, at least, is on our own *****ebag leader and his combination of saber-rattling with more concrete economic strangling, you give credit where credit's due.

 

[ludovica]

You do know NK's had further sanctions right up their ass for a year now, right? Along with China putting the squeeze on them, which started after Trump came in?

Kim's made actual reforms in the last couple of years about wanting to actually feed his people better, and despite all of his other evil bull**** it seems he was actually making a few strides with it. You can't keep doing that when your economy has an even tighter stranglehold on you, and China's at least semi-backing that sanction action. Couple that with potentially not being able to pay off his generals in the lavish lifestyle they're accomplished to, things have been looking down for Kim on the domestic side of things for some time now, despite his leaps & bounds on the nuclear side.

It's self-prefervation, basically. He's feeling less secure these days, and is looking for a way to save face. Part of that, at least, is on our own *****ebag leader and his combination of saber-rattling with more concrete economic strangling, you give credit where credit's due.

Point is that these sanctions would have been enacted exactly the same way with any administration, don't kid yourself.
I won't give credit where there's none to speak of.

Saving face? NK has never been in better standing from a PR point of view.
Of course that's because from their abysmal historic reputation there was only going up, but that's not saying much.

Letting you know that in downtown Seoul the government put photos of Kim and Moon side by side before the meeting, to celebrate the occasion, and there were no riots.
Believe you me, only six months ago that would have not been thinkable.

You speak in platitudes more often than not: what evil deeds are you talking about? Stereotyping much?
Nothing is fine up North, that's for sure, but any sanction was directly and knowingly provoked by NK and strictly due to the missiles development.

Let's get Kim credit then; only merit of Trump and his cronies was making it easy and quick for NK. That's definitely a very good thing though, even if it bore out of naivete.
I'll give you that.

 

[Aximili86]

Point is that these sanctions would have been enacted exactly the same way with any administration, don't kid yourself.
I won't give credit where there's none to speak of.

They...weren't, though. Obviously we've sanctioned the Kim family before, but nothing with quite this much teeth, and not in the face of an absolutely apocalyptic second option for them that's been made pretty clear.

And what? "What evil deeds"? You're kidding me. Yeah, Kim and his dad weren't "evil" or anything, with their world's-premier-slave-camps title, mass executions, killing his own uncle for kicks. Nah, tubby's just misunderstood.

 

[KRYPTON INC.]

Arguing to hold water for Trump with someone actually in the country and familiar with the local politics? Flabbergasting.

 

[Aximili86]

Oh, you.