🏈 NFL - Game On

[InCali]

Riots in Kansas City tonight, I assume?

Seriously, good night Kansas City. They're done, they can no longer be considered favorites the AFC West, heck they may not even have a shot at the playoffs right now. The rest of the AFC, most especially in the AFC West, are doing cartwheels of joy . The Chiefs front office better have a damn good reason for doing this, otherwise heads are going to roll.

All the Dolphins need now is someone to pass the man the ball. Easier said than done...

I've got some money that says KC goes WR in round 1 and maybe trades up.

 

[Ninjablade]

I'm no Tua guy, by any stretch of the imagination, but they're putting quite the offense around him. With the new head coach, they'll be running the Shanahan/McVay offense which is super QB friendly. With the speed of that team and a QB that is comfortable throwing short to wide open guys who can then pick up an extra 10yds. They have to the potential to be really good. Not a contender, but they could compete for that 7th WC spot.

Really, Tua's bar in terms of QB play to get that team to potentially be playoff caliber in that system is somewhere between Goff and Jimmy G. Both those guys have better arms and are taller, but still. It's not exactly a high ceiling. Granted, I have no idea how good the defense is going to be.

 

[sycamore]

I've got some money that says KC goes WR in round 1 and maybe trades up.

Is the Cheetah even replaceable though? The guy is pretty unique. When his career is over he likely will be in the same conversation as Rice and Moss.

 

[InCali]

I'm no Tua guy, by any stretch of the imagination, but they're putting quite the offense around him. With the new head coach, they'll be running the Shanahan/McVay offense which is super QB friendly. With the speed of that team and a QB that is comfortable throwing short to wide open guys who can then pick up an extra 10yds. They have to the potential to be really good. Not a contender, but they could compete for that 7th WC spot.

Really, Tua's bar in terms of QB play to get that team to potentially be playoff caliber in that system is somewhere between Goff and Jimmy G. Both those guys have better arms and are taller, but still. It's not exactly a high ceiling. Granted, I have no idea how good the defense is going to be.

Yeah. In a normal year, I could see Miami in a playoff spot, but think at "least" 3 will come out of the west. Then you have the Browns and the Bengals. Then you have the winner of the south and then you have the Bills. There's just too many good teams for Miami to sneak in IMO. I also think the east is going to be very competitive amongst the 3 teams not named the Bills so I just can't see another team in that division making the playoffs.

 

[P Supreme]

Is the Cheetah even replaceable though? The guy is pretty unique. When his career is over he likely will be in the same conversation as Rice and Moss.

whoa pump the breaks on that Hill was 5th rd pick that benefited from Maholmes scrambling and arm talent imo his stats will suffer dramatically with Tua remember it took the great Jerry Rice a season to get used a left handed QB and he was on the team as the back up for yeaars [young] no easy transition going from a right handed QB to a left handed one

 

[InCali]

Is the Cheetah even replaceable though? The guy is pretty unique. When his career is over he likely will be in the same conversation as Rice and Moss.

Not completely replaceable, but if you get a good speed WR (of which there are a lot in this draft), KC can be very, very dangerous. As far as Rice, Moss, Fitzgerald, etc. I don't see it. Cris Carter, Tim Brown, etc. "maybe", but he's had the advantage of being on the receiving end of Mahomes. He doesn't have that anymore. He's still dangerous and still great, but I don't see him in the top 10 receiving yards all time.

 

[InCali]

whoa pump the breaks on that Hill was 5th rd pick that benefited from Maholmes scrambling and arm talent imo his stats will suffer dramatically with Tua remember it took the great Jerry Rice a season to get used a left handed QB and he was on the team as the back up for yeaars [young] no easy transition going from a right handed QB to a left handed one

Just beat me to it WRT Mahomes. Good work. LOL

 

[InCali]

And, BTW, I like Adams as a receiver more than I do Hill overall. To be fair though, Adams has also benefited from playing opposite Rodgers. Say what you will about Aaron, but he can hit the eye of a needle from 25-30 yards. The Raiders gave up approximately the same for the trade and are paying Adams less per year than Miami is paying Hill. I think it's an easy argument to make that, because of the QBs involved, that Adams brings much more to the Raiders than Hill does to the Fish.

 

[InCali]

Bobby Wagner interested in joining Rams. That would be a monstrous upgrade at LB. Still one of the best tacklers in the league. Great off ball LB; maybe the best in the league.

 

[P Supreme]

If they can afford to add him i agree you know we need a LB as well

League is going in this "F these picks era" last 2 SB winners have done it through FA and trades i dont this new way succeeding

Point is my team ain't doing ####

 

[P Supreme]

Jets tried to get in on this Hill trade at least.

 

[InCali]

If they can afford to add him i agree you know we need a LB as well

League is going in this "F these picks era" last 2 SB winners have done it through FA and trades i dont this new way succeeding

Point is my team ain't doing ####

The thing is that the Millers and Wagners of the world want to go somewhere that they can compete for a title. Sure money is important, but they both have a couple of bucks in their pocket. Miller found someone who is a SB favorite that would (IMO) totally overpay him and I wish him the best. Wagner never got that kind of offer, but in his own words

Bobby Wagner On His Next Team, 'I Just Want To Win'

The Rams give him that opportunity. The problem the Giants have is they are a not-so-good team that doesn't have a lot of salary cap flexibility. While I don't follow them closely, I suspect they've made some rather poor signing choices. It's one thing to be in salary cap hell if you've had a competitive team and have to rebuild (think Saints) and it's something else to be there and to have fielded a team that was never going to compete for a title. A regime change was in order, but you have to give them some time to build. They have some pieces and with a good draft or two, they could field a very competitive team.

Not having a winning team AND salary cap issues isn't going to get you Pro Bowl caliber guys like Miller and Wagner who have made a lot of money, are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning, and want another title.

 

[P Supreme]

The thing is that the Millers and Wagners of the world want to go somewhere that they can compete for a title. Sure money is important, but they both have a couple of bucks in their pocket. Miller found someone who is a SB favorite that would (IMO) totally overpay him and I wish him the best. Wagner never got that kind of offer, but in his own words

Bobby Wagner On His Next Team, 'I Just Want To Win'

The Rams give him that opportunity. The problem the Giants have is they are a not-so-good team that doesn't have a lot of salary cap flexibility. While I don't follow them closely, I suspect they've made some rather poor signing choices. It's one thing to be in salary cap hell if you've had a competitive team and have to rebuild (think Saints) and it's something else to be there and to have fielded a team that was never going to compete for a title. A regime change was in order, but you have to give them some time to build. They have some pieces and with a good draft or two, they could field a very competitive team.

Not having a winning team AND salary cap issues isn't going to get you Pro Bowl caliber guys like Miller and Wagner who have made a lot of money, are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning, and want another title.

ok u just trolling me now lol

what wonderful insight you have for e today ? sky is blue ?

 

[P Supreme]

i just want to keep interest in this league some way some how

 

[P Supreme]

30 mil a year for Hill
wow man for a guy who is dependent on another man to get him the ball that is astronimical
all power to him but if i was an owner i'm not paying that

 

[InCali]

ok u just trolling me now lol

what wonderful insight you have for e today ? sky is blue ?

Just providing the facts. You swore off the G's for this year anyway. I'm really not that familiar with what they've paid out, but I DID say I think they can be very competitive in a short time.

As far as my insights for today.....How about Wagner would be a really nice fit for the Rams as Floyd and Donald demand a lot of double teams so the Rams are most effective with LBs who work well in open space. If you give Wagner some space, he's gonna make a lot of plays. I think the dude had like 170 tackles last year. That's a crazy amount of tackles and I seem to recall that he was dinged up a little later in the year. I would also argue that Miller was helped more by Donald and Floyd than vice versa. I don't care who plays with him, Donald is going to get as many double/triple teams as any player in the league. I saw a lot of Miller coming around the corner on single teams and beating the tackle. That doesn't happen on every team in the league. Buffalo is a good fit for Miller also.

Joe Hallenbeck:
Water's wet, the sky's blue. And old Satan Claus, Jimmy, he's out there. And he's just getting stronger.......(Giants dump Gettleman and Judge....Goodbye Satan Claus)

 

[sycamore]

30 mil a year for Hill
wow man for a guy who is dependent on another man to get him the ball that is astronimical

But come on he does so much more than that. He's a DC's nightmare. You watch how Kelce disappears this season without Hill as his foil.

 

[InCali]

30 mil a year for Hill
wow man for a guy who is dependent on another man to get him the ball that is astronimical
all power to him but if i was an owner i'm not paying that

Yeah.....Adams is starting to look like a steal for the Raiders. And, they've got a QB who can actually take advantage of his talents. O line improvement (esp on the right side) is going to be key for the Raiders this year. If Carr can get some time, Adams, Waller, and Renfro look like a really good receiving corp.

 

[InCali]

But come on he does so much more than that. He's a DC's nightmare. You watch how Kelce disappears this season without Hill as his foil.

It's true he is very dangerous after the catch, but Tua limits Hill's game. How many 50 yard bombs did you see Hill catch because the CB was chasing him down and couldn't locate the ball? Tua is not going to be able to make those plays. I don't think anyone is saying he's not dangerous, but the Fish aren't going to be able to fully utilize his talents. I don't know about Kelce disappearing, but having Hill was a big plus for him. They can, I think, replace the deep threat of Hill in the draft. He probably won't be another Hill, but doesn't have to be. Mahomes deserves a lot of credit for Hill's success.

EDIT: I suppose they could use Hill on kickoff and punt returns. This would up his impact on a game, but I would personally be reluctant to use a $30M a year guy on returns; especially kickoff returns. 17 games is a long season and I want to minimize the risk of injury to someone I'm paying that much money. Losing him, especially on a return, would be a pretty devastating loss for the Fish and can you even IMAGINE what the fan base and local media would say??

 

[sycamore]

I never like it when my team is a frontrunner at the beginning of the season. Frontrunners rarely live up to expectations -- to much pressure and they almost always collapse. Better your team is a #2 or #3 seed, ready to pounce on the #1 when they invariably blow a gasket.

(If you're thinking I'm taking a shot at the Buffalo Bills, yes, you're right, I am )

 

[InCali]

I never like it when my team is a frontrunner at the beginning of the season. Frontrunners rarely live up to expectations -- to much pressure and they almost always collapse. Better your team is a #2 or #3 seed, ready to pounce on the #1 when they invariably blow a gasket.

(If you're thinking I'm taking a shot at the Buffalo Bills, yes, you're right, I am )

As a recovering statistician, I look at it a little bit differently. Say a team is a 7 to 1 "favorite" to win the SB. That means that 7 times out of 8 (that's an edit from 6 out of 7....sorry about that, but you have to count all 8 possibilities), they "won't" win. Those aren't very good odds so taking the #1 team isn't necessarily a good bet, but the experts think they have the best chance. If you pick ANY given team, they are going to have their trials and tribulations throughout the year. In order to win a SB, things have to fall right for you. Take the Rams. They were the 3rd seed, faced a team that got through a relatively easy regular season for a 2nd seeding (Bucs weren't really that good) matchup away and then had home field for the rest of the playoffs because of some upsets. They had some injuries, but had a pretty deep team where they got injuries and the replacements played well. A lot of chance goes into winning the SB. Bottom line is that if you pick 2 or 3, they cumulatively have a better chance of winning than the #1 team so it might "seem" like they're a better pick. This is all theoretical though as football games are actually played and dorks like me deal with probability.

I was just looking at the odds and think the Bills and Chiefs are basically tied and are followed by the Rams and Bengals. What baffles me is that the Raiders have about the same odds as the Commanders, Steelers, and Falcons.....hey, I get the Raiders are in a tough division, but, uh........really???

Also, they are behind the Vikings, Saints, and Seahawks....LOL. Maybe they think Seattle will get Mayfield at QB.

 

[InCali]

Scary thought......I just found out the Chargers still have almost 20M in cap space. I initially thought they would go with a big NT/DT in the draft, but after signing Joseph-Day and Johnson, I think they go OT in the draft. Penning might very well be available. It's possible that Cross might be there at 17, but I doubt it. This draft is deep with very fast WRs and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go there at some point in the draft. I would also consider finding a RB to spell Ekeler and extend his career.

What do they do with that 20M in cap money? Do they go for someone like Gilmore or Mathieu to shore up their secondary and maybe still sign some O line depth like Daryl Williams? I haven't heard any talk about them doing much at LB. They look really solid right now. Do they maybe sit on that under the cap money and use it next year?

 

[P Supreme]

But come on he does so much more than that. He's a DC's nightmare. You watch how Kelce disappears this season without Hill as his foil.

watch Andy Reid make the rooki3 WR they draft offensive rookie of the year kelce slips slightly but not completely disappear

 

[P Supreme]

if Hill was such a loss why has the odds for them the same WR are impactful with the right QB Tua
won't be good for Hills Numberes

 

[InCali]

if Hill was such a loss why has the odds for them the same WR are impactful with the right QB Tua
won't be good for Hills Numberes

I don't think this was a great trade for Miami. Not horrible, but not great. I was watching some tape on Hill and he looks better underneath than I thought. He turns on a dime without seeming to slow down (kind of like a very fast Cooper Kupp) and his speed makes him almost impossible to cover underneath. That being said, I think they could have addressed some issues with those 1st and 2nd round picks (and, yes, at WR) much more cost effectively and spent that 30M elsewhere to solidify their entire team. They are (were) a blitz heavy team and could have used a big time edge rusher and help at LB. Honestly, they are one of those teams that has a lot of questions attached to them because it was like they were 2 different groups last year. They started off looking like they might be in line for the #1 pick and ended up the year looking like a team that could possibly make a playoff run. They are one of those teams I look at, shake my head, shrug my shoulders, and walk away from with a lot of questions I just don't have an answer for.

They got some guys who should help them for sure, but if I was them, I think I would have gone WR and the RB in the draft (their run game is awful) and signed one of the big time EDGE guys and worked on the defense in free agency. They did, however, get some guys who will really help them on the O line (IF Armstead can stay healthy) and bringing in Teddy Bridgewater was a nice signing. I think those cap numbers are going to look very bad after next year and they really aren't SB contenders this year, so I'm not sure I can make a lot of sense out of their offseason.