2016 films

[Xeno]

^^^ Who knows maybe FOX feels it will be best to compete with TASM2 in May. Personally it might've been a stupid move on there party. There's only 2-3 weeks between Cap 2, TASM2, and now XM: DoFP. This is how you burn people out quickly.

I think Fox moved DOFP because the competition in July looks murderous. Maleficent starts the month, followed by Fast & Furious 7 in the second week, Dawn of the Apes in the third and The Rock's Hercules in the final week. Then August starts off with a bang as GotG and Fifty Shades open in the first weekend. The X-franchise has settled in as a mid-level series of moderate hits, rather than massive blockbusters, so any of those films could affect DOFP. Fox must be wary of that level of competition.

May looks like a better situation because fewer big tentpoles are scheduled. There is ASM2, of course, and WB's Godzilla reboot on May 16th, along with Pixar's The Good Dinosaur on the 30th. The three weeks between ASM and DOFP is a good cushion, but the Godzilla flick is a wild card. If that hits big it could dent ASM's legs and DOFP's OW. Avoiding F&F7, which is a guaranteed $100 million opener, and the Apes movie while gaining the Memorial Day weekend in the US is a good trade-off, though.

CA:TWS could very well shock everyone by breaking out in a big way. It doesn't face another CBM for four weeks after it opens. Rio and Stretch Armstrong in its second weekend don't look particularly strong. With Disney's marketing might behind it and its close ties to The Avengers, CA has the potential to blow up into a serious hit in a month not traditionally associated with blockbusters.

 

[psylockolussus]

Just so you know, FOX switched the dates of Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and X-Men: Days of Future Past.

I do think DOFP will have better legs with a July release date than May. I don't think Jupiter Ascending (from the hitmakers of Speed Racer, Ninja Assassin and Cloud Atlas), Hercules and most especially Guardians of the Galaxy will be a big competition to X-Men: Days of Future Past. With Fast 7, I definitely think they are releasing the next movie way too early.

And Captain America's early April release will hinder its chances on becoming a big blockbuster movie. April is usually a quiet month for movies, Fast Five is the only movie that was released in April to hit the $200 million mark at domestic box-office. And Fast Five was released two days before May. Captain America might earn some records for its April release but its not gonna perform like the Iron Man movies.

 

[Moridin]

And Captain America's early April release will hinder its chances on becoming a big blockbuster movie. April is usually a quiet month for movies, Fast Five is the only movie that was released in April to hit the $200 million mark at domestic box-office. And Fast Five was released two days before May. Captain America might earn some records for its April release but its not gonna perform like the Iron Man movies.

By the same token, if Hunger Games was released just a week later it would have been an April release (barring it's first Friday & Saturday).

If films can make big money in March (Hunger Games $408m, Alice in Wonderland $334m, Oz $234, 300 $210), and if films can make big money in May, it stands to reason it can happen in April (and has), you just need a studio to a big property there. Winter Soldier is a big property.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding hit $241m in 2002, adjusted that's 312m (no 3D), and you already pointed out Fats Five's $209.8m

It's happened before so it can happen again. Will happen again, unless it's crap. I'm still calling $250m US for now.

 

[spideymouse]

Honestly, it's a toss up to which will do the best. Cap 2 is coming off of Avengers so that's boost it a lot. TASM2 is a sequel to a movie that did well. XM: DoFP has the original cast coming back and is coming out on memorial day weekend. Each of these factors plays into the BO totals. The only thing is that they come out so close to each other and they are appealing to the same target audience.

I think it's between TASM2 and DOFP. CA:TWS will be awesome, and could be the best film out of the three, but financially this is still Cap in April vs. Spider-Man and X-Men in May. Interestingly enough, this is the first year a Spider-Man film will be up against an X-Men film. My vote goes to Spidey (especially internationally), but I can see X-Men beating it if it's the epic event film that it promises to be.

Haha, I just remembered what this thread is titled.

 

[kaijunexus]

I'm wondering if we could eventually see combination films, like "Thor and Captain America" or "Iron Man and Hulk"?

 

[spideymouse]

I'm wondering if we could eventually see combination films, like "Thor and Captain America" or "Iron Man and Hulk"?

I brought up this idea in 2008 of them doing a joint sequel for Iron Man and Hulk--it was pretty much panned by everyone in the thread. Then after Stark and Banner got all buddy-buddy in the Avengers movie, people all of a sudden came up with this new idea of them doing a joint sequel for Iron Man and Hulk.

I'd love to see "Marvel Team-Up" movies, but it seems that actors' multi-film contracts are too valuable to Marvel for them to waste on "double-dipping" ventures like these. In other words, why use up both a film from Chris Evans' contract and a film from Chris Hemsworth's contract in one movie when you can make two? The two in total will almost always make more money than the one will. Of course, the exceptions to the rule are big team movies like The Avengers and little cameos like RDJ in TIH and Ruffalo in IM3.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I think it's between TASM2 and DOFP. CA:TWS will be awesome, and could be the best film out of the three, but financially this is still Cap in April vs. Spider-Man and X-Men in May. Interestingly enough, this is the first year a Spider-Man film will be up against an X-Men film. My vote goes to Spidey (especially internationally), but I can see X-Men beating it if it's the epic event film that it promises to be.

Haha, I just remembered what this thread is titled.

I think it's between TASM2 and CA:TWS. DOFP will be battling it out with GOTG. The first Cap did well enough coming out around the same time as freaking Harry Potter, and it STILL outgrossed First Class. I don't understand why people see the April release as a hindrance. If anything it will help the movie by having tons of hype, no competition, being Avengers 1.5 and being the first blockbuster of the year.

 

[Green Goblin]

I thought Cap was people's least favourite Avenger, just so you know in the UK TASM2 comes out 2 weeks after Cap and doesn't have competition uni till like 4 weeks after.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I thought Cap was people's least favourite Avenger, just so you know in the UK TASM2 comes out 2 weeks after Cap and doesn't have competition uni till like 4 weeks after.

Even if that WAS true (Even though it can't be because it's a subjective matter), that's like saying it's the least favorite of people's favorite things ever. He's still a much beloved character, and besides, Black Widow is also in the movie.

 

[BoredGuy]

Yeah Cap is only people's least favorite avenger if you drop hawkeye and widow
even then, him and Thor are on similar levels of popularity

 

[Green Goblin]

With release dates near each other, I doubt any of those 3 will make the money they could make. Godzilla might want to move as it's between TASM2 and X-Men. Does TMNT come out in May too?

 

[Hyde]

I think it's between TASM2 and CA:TWS. DOFP will be battling it out with GOTG. The first Cap did well enough coming out around the same time as freaking Harry Potter, and it STILL outgrossed First Class. I don't understand why people see the April release as a hindrance. If anything it will help the movie by having tons of hype, no competition, being Avengers 1.5 and being the first blockbuster of the year.

DOFP is now being released in May so it's not near GOTG anymore

With release dates near each other, I doubt any of those 3 will make the money they could make. Godzilla might want to move as it's between TASM2 and X-Men. Does TMNT come out in May too?

June I think

 

[psylockolussus]

I think it's between TASM2 and CA:TWS. DOFP will be battling it out with GOTG. The first Cap did well enough coming out around the same time as freaking Harry Potter, and it STILL outgrossed First Class. I don't understand why people see the April release as a hindrance. If anything it will help the movie by having tons of hype, no competition, being Avengers 1.5 and being the first blockbuster of the year.

Like I said, April is usually a quiet month. And even if it has Nick Fury, Maria Hill and Black Widow, they are no Iron Man or Robert Downey Jr to draw people to watch the new Captain America movie.

And Captain America had 3D and First Class didn't have a 3D release. Who knows if their box-office numbers could have been way close if First Class was released in 3D. And by the way, First Class earned more money internationally.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

DOFP is now being released in May so it's not near GOTG anymore

That's not what I meant. I meant those two films will be battling it out for last place in the 2104 Marvel box office race.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Like I said, April is usually a quiet month.

I don't understand your logic. April is usually a quiet month because nothing loud ever comes out in that month... until now... with CA:TWS.

If Iron Man 3 had been released in April instead of May it would have made roughly the same amount of money.

 

[Green Goblin]

I don't understand your logic. April is usually a quiet month because nothing loud ever comes out in that month... until now... with CA:TWS.

If Iron Man 3 had been released in April instead of May it would have made roughly the same amount of money.

Here in the UK, IM3 was released in April and it did fantastic!

 

[spideymouse]

Yeah Cap is only people's least favorite avenger if you drop hawkeye and widow
even then, him and Thor are on similar levels of popularity

Sure... but the point is, how does Captain America stack up against Spider-Man and the X-Men in popularity, especially worldwide?

You may point to CA:TFA vs XM:FC, but remember that FC was coming off of the terrible XMOW and had a terrible marketing campaign.

 

[Green Goblin]

Sure... but the point is, how does Captain America stack up against Spider-Man and the X-Men in popularity, especially worldwide?

You may point to CA:TFA vs XM:FC, but remember that FC was coming off of the terrible XMOW and had a terrible marketing campaign.

I think that TA has boosted his popularity, I could see Cap beating X-Men worldwide and in the US but not Spider-Man worldwide anyway. If I had to bet I think Cap will be the best in the US but not worldwide. 50 shades of grey may hurt G0TG...

 

[psylockolussus]

X-Men is definitely more popular worldwide.

First Class didn't have Wolverine and 3D and yet, it still earned more money than Captain America overseas. With the original cast back and with the 3D boost, I expect the box-office numbers for DOFP to be huge!