2016 films

[H.U.S.T.L.E.]

So are you saying 450 million (worldwide) per movie is not good?

I think he's getting to the point that for big budget movies (in the 150-200 mil range, then add the marketing campaign costs), 450 million gross worldwide isn't a very big return.

 

[Heliflyer]

Add in the ancillary properties as well - i.e. Fast Food tie-ins; toys and games; clothing with the logos etc.

This accounts for a large portion of a film's value, as does DVD/Blueray and VOD sales. Toss in the Film rights for HBO or other such entities and the film is made to bring funds in for years to come. BO is icing on the cake.

 

[metaphysician]

OTOH, all that is significantly effected by the BO success. If a movie does terrible at the box office, it probably won't have high interest for merchandising and ancillary markets. The exceptions being sleeper hits, natch.

 

[spideymouse]

OTOH, all that is significantly effected by the BO success. If a movie does terrible at the box office, it probably won't have high interest for merchandising and ancillary markets. The exceptions being sleeper hits, natch.

Absolutely. Even if TASM's $750 million worldwide technically represents Sony breaking even, the sheer number itself still very much shows the value and viability of the property and the product. I think Psylockolossus's point is still valid; $450M at the box office may not put a studio in the black all by itself, but you cannot see a film make that much and argue that the general audience no longer has interest in it. Look at the list of movies that have made $450M and above; it is no coincidence that the vast majority of them are in franchises or have franchise potential.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The day a Spider-Man film makes 450 m is the day that Sony sells the rights back to Disney. Those numbers would tell them it's time to give the character a rest for awhile, something they can't afford to do. I would think 650 m would be the reasonable floor for them to keep it going.

 

[psylockolussus]

Absolutely. Even if TASM's $750 million worldwide technically represents Sony breaking even, the sheer number itself still very much shows the value and viability of the property and the product. I think Psylockolossus's point is still valid; $450M at the box office may not put a studio in the black all by itself, but you cannot see a film make that much and argue that the general audience no longer has interest in it. Look at the list of movies that have made $450M and above; it is no coincidence that the vast majority of them are in franchises or have franchise potential.

If the day comes that a Spiderman film only gets $450M, they would just be in the same shape as X-Men right now and they would probably need to lower their budget for future films. A $450m worldwide gross is still good.

 

[spideymouse]

Not in Phase 3. MAYBE they might try for three during Phase 4, but the Phase 3 schedule is established with a six-month lag between films - with the DVD/Download releases of the films falling in between the six-month schedule to keep fan interest up and going.

Looks like that isn't the case for 2016, anyway. As you've probably seen by now, Marvel recently announced mystery movies for May and July 2016, just two months apart (with TASM3 in between them in June, to boot). It'll be interesting to see if they attempt a third movie between the July 2016 and May 2017, since that's a 10-month gap.

 

[psylockolussus]

A November 2016 release date for a third film in 2016 is possible.

 

[Kiltman]

A November 2016 release date for a third film in 2016 is possible.

Yea....I think they'll wait to see how Thor does this November before they would announce it though.

 

[Green Goblin]

Besides Avengers 2, what Marvel Film announced so far do you think will make the most money. My bet is on TASM2 (It's freaking Spider-Man!) followed by Thor 2 and Cap 2 and possibly X-MenOFP

 

[psylockolussus]

For next year, I think X-Men it will make the most money.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Besides Avengers 2, what Marvel Film announced so far do you think will make the most money. My bet is on TASM2 (It's freaking Spider-Man!) followed by Thor 2 and Cap 2 and possibly X-MenOFP

It's really hard to tell with this crop of movies, but I pretty much agree with what you said.

TASM2 > Thor 2 > Cap 2 > DOFP >/= GOTG > Ant-Man

 

[Hypestyle]

I hope that the movie is revealed at the San Diego Comic Con. Might as well, even if no casting is done yet.

 

[Green Goblin]

For next year, I think X-Men it will make the most money.

If TASM made 750 Million, was an origin story, was an actual reboot and Ice Age 4 and TDKR opening 2-3 weeks later then a sequel without a big film like those coming soon will do a bit more at least (820 million) Now the quality will be unknown until release but I think Thor 2 will make more money than X-MenOFP. Didn't X-Men First Class make less than 500 million? I could see Guardians being a surprise

 

[jaqua99]

i think gotg is going to be a sleeper, making more than cap

 

[Green Goblin]

i think gotg is going to be a sleeper, making more than cap

I'm glad that Marvel are doing a non-avengers film. It's called the MARVEL Cinematic Universe lol

 

[psylockolussus]

If TASM made 750 Million, was an origin story, was an actual reboot and Ice Age 4 and TDKR opening 2-3 weeks later then a sequel without a big film like those coming soon will do a bit more at least (820 million) Now the quality will be unknown until release but I think Thor 2 will make more money than X-MenOFP. Didn't X-Men First Class make less than 500 million? I could see Guardians being a surprise

X-Men: First Class was a prequel, it wasn't released in 3D/IMAX and it didn't feature Wolverine and the original cast. DOFP is not a prequel and will feature the original cast. The cast of First Class being in the film will be a plus. It will also be released in 3D.

 

[blalex620]

I see lots of wish lists, but as much as it is going to pain the dreamers, a solo Black Panther film simply is not in the works. Don't plan on seeing it anytime soon.

2016 for Marvel will be:

Doctor Strange
New solo Hulk Film

It's funny that I went back and almost two months ago you were saying a BP film is not in the works and we're dreamers.

Then Stan today says this:

Well, let me put it to you this way: Back at Marvel, they are frantically looking for what is the next one they’re going to do. There is no way they won’t eventually do a Silver Surfer movie. It may not be for a few years because they’re thinking and working on Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Ant-Man, Guardians of the Galaxy. Everything we have. And the fans seem to want all of them. But they’ll get around to a Silver Surfer feature because he’s a wonderful character.

And before you say we can't believe Stan Lee, I'd argue that we could believe him more than we can believe you, an anonymous poster on a forum, no offense. Plus the other 3 movies he listed we know to be in the works with two of them having release dates. So I'm sure Stan Lee would know what he's talking about.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

i think gotg is going to be a sleeper, making more than cap

I don't see how GotG makes more than Avengers 1.5. In fact I'm pretty confident Cap 2 will gross about twice as much as GotG.

 

[Green Goblin]

Why did the move days of future past to may?

 

[blalex620]

^^^ Who knows maybe FOX feels it will be best to compete with TASM2 in May. Personally it might've been a stupid move on there party. There's only 2-3 weeks between Cap 2, TASM2, and now XM: DoFP. This is how you burn people out quickly.

 

[Green Goblin]

Should Disney or Fox change the dates?

 

[Green Goblin]

Guess Cap2 and TASM2 might not make that much after all...

 

[psylockolussus]

Why did the move days of future past to may?

FOX is probably confident with DOFP so much.

And with a memorial weekend release, it would earn more money at the opening weekend.

 

[blalex620]

Honestly, it's a toss up to which will do the best. Cap 2 is coming off of Avengers so that's boost it a lot. TASM2 is a sequel to a movie that did well. XM: DoFP has the original cast coming back and is coming out on memorial day weekend. Each of these factors plays into the BO totals. The only thing is that they come out so close to each other and they are appealing to the same target audience.