DISCLAIMER:
Okay, before I start, let me just say these are my OPINIONS, they won't be popular, and if you disagree that's cool - just don't get personal or abusive about it. It is possible to say " I strongly disagree with you..." in a polite fashion, even while thinking I'm a moron.
So, I've got 7 predictions. Sorry to be the voice of doom and gloom, but I think this year will be a tough one for the superhero genre.
I think that genre fatigue will really start to set in - I mean, I grew up loving Superheroes and still do, but I can't be ****ing bothered going to see all the movies coming out, there's just too many too soon.
Now I don't agree with Spielberg that the superhero cbm is doomed, but I think that general audiences will become less interested as the studios kick out so many of the damn things (and going to the movies is ****ing expensive). No matter what the real fans, and that means everyone on this website, will go see these films, but what about the rest of the world ?
Michael Bay cranks out one really **** Transformers film every other year or so, gets absolutely panned on RT but makes a ****-ton of money at the box office. However, he isn't competing with a bunch of other giant robot movies, so he's just about got the sub-genre to himself, he's the only game in town.
As a genre, superhero movies are over-represented, they're saturating the market, and that usually leads to a decline in demand.
PREDICTIONS
1. B v S does better with critics than Man of Steel, but still doesn't crack 85% on RT, maybe 82% tops. By getting in first (well, before CW and XMA at least and let's face it, the general audience for Deadpool is different than that for B v S) it manages to captilize on there not being a Superman or Batman film for several years (and interest in the first big screen appearance of the two heroes together plus Wonder Woman) and avoid the worst of superhero fatigue. It will make the most money, and sell the most toys. Will it have a tight nuanced plot, like CW will.....no, but who cares? You don't go to see a film called "Batman v Superman" because you really give a **** about an intricate or carefully crafted story.
2. Civil War doesn't live up to expectations, while it is raved about by fans the general audience find it about as engaging as Age of Ultron (which was a good film, but not quite as good as Avengers). Still a strong performance at the box office, but a few critics start asking tough questions of Cap, like how he can fight Iron man, who went toe to toe with Thor ? (meanwhile audiences ask where IS Thor....and while we're at it where's the Hulk ? Are we really that excited about seeing more of the Vision and Ant Man ?) Despite striking gold with Winter Soldier, will the writers/director be able to pull it off again in a film which looks to have a lot less intrigue than TWS ? I'm thinking....no. Particularly in a film that looks pretty crowded in terms of characters.
3. Suicide Squad is also a great looking, weird, but underwhelming film that doesn't live up to the hype - and Will Smith overdoes it (anyone noticed that his last few films have not done that well, he hasn't cracked 70% on RT since I am Legend, although at least he hasn't brought his son along for this film, whew !). Suddenly audiences also realise that with her clothes on Margot Robbie isn't that good an actress.
In terms of films about B and C list characters (which is what this really is)
Guardians of the Galaxy was pure off-beat gold for Marvel, but had a better cast overall.....and they were the good guys, rough around the edges yes, but SS is about a bunch of murdering psychopaths with too many tattoos and bad skin conditions, I can't see it having the same charm that made GOTG such a fun watch.
I love DC's dark, gritty feel, but I think SS will take it too far. I do think that Cara Delvingne will come out looking better than anyone else.
4. Deadpool ,although it will get in first will underperform, audiences will be turned off by Reynolds being too OTT, and negative word of mouth will mean that the film makes some money but doesn't catapult the character into the same league as Spider Man. Hard core Deadpool fans will love it, but general audiences will pass. At worst it will end up being a slightly quirky generic action film.
5. Superhero fatigue will really hurt Doctor Strange, which will underperform despite amazing performances by Cumberbatch, Swinton and Ejiofor, which leaves studio execs scratching their heads about the wisdom of cranking out ****-loads of superhero movies year after year. Critics, having now seen a ****-ton of origin films and will turn a bit nasty over minor points they ignored in cbm films that were made 5 or more years ago. Dr Strange's big problem is that its a redemption story about an arrogant genius who gets a second chance (hmmmm..... sound familiar anyone ) it's ground that's been well-traversed.
Also, Cumberbatch himself, while a delight to watch has been doing arrogant genius a bit too much over the past few years ( Into Darkness, Enigma, Sherlock) and is risking extra critical ire, regarding typecasting and being called " Sherlock Potter and the Evil origin story" or something like that.
The other big problem is the director- I mean, what has this guy done that wowed us.....nothing ! The Day the Earth Stood Still (the Keanu Reeves version).
I think Dr Strange would have had a chance if they'd put a really solid directo in charge....hell, put Guillermo Del Toro in there and you might have something, but Scott Derrickson ? Really ?
6. It will be comparison time for Affleck to Bale and Leto to Ledger. I suspect that Affleck will come off looking good (critics are fickle, and too many people bang on about Bale's bat-voice being bad). Some might even say he's the definitive Batman (again, so fickle) on the other hand Leto will get props for doing something stylisitically different, but won't hold up against Ledger).
7. X-Men Apocalypse will also suffer from superhero fatigue - too many superhero blockbusters in one year guys, and too close together. It follows close on the heels of Civil War, too close (CW will still be in cinemas). If people are having to choose which to see they will probably go with Cap and co, although Apocalypse will probably be more visually stunning - and has a better cast ( Fassbender, Macavoy and Lawrence, just for starters) than CW or B v S.
Everyone raves about Oscar Isaac, but does he have the chops to pull off such an iconic x-villain, possibly the best other than Magneto (who's also in the film, damn !) ? I mean, he was okay for all ten of the minutes he was in TFA, but can he do Apocalypse, a guy who's as old as the pyramids and has to feel like he was meant to rule the Earth ? hmmmm......
Anyway, XMA will end up being a well-received (because critics **** ing love Bryan Singer ) film but not be as successful as it could have been, due to external factors.
Okay, that's my set of predictions. I'm sure some of you out there are gnashing your teeth and burning me in effigy at this moment, but hey, if you disagree I respect your opinion.
Cheers.
