Analyst: No clear winner in this console war

[TheBat812]

Analyst: No clear winner in this console war

DFC Intelligence says Sony and Nintendo will be close, with Microsoft "probably a distant third."

By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpot Posted Sep 28, 2007 2:12 pm PT

Halo 3 has finally arrived, and Microsoft is touting its sales success to anyone who will listen. However, one group of industry watchers doesn't believe it will be enough to help Microsoft "finish the fight" against rivals Sony and Nintendo.
DFC Intelligence has released its latest forecast of the industry. The firm suggested that this round of console wars won't have as clear a winner as in the past, but that the battle might result in Microsoft clearly bringing up the rear.
"Under DFC's best-case scenario for the Xbox 360, the system is in a virtual tie with both the Wii and the PlayStation 3," the analysts wrote. "However, unless the Xbox 360 can kick it into gear in the fourth quarter and through 2008, the system will probably finish in a fairly distant third. A big challenge for the Xbox 360 is building a base outside North America."
As for who will win the console race, DFC said the Wii "could be" the overall winner, but also predicted that the PS3 will hit its stride in 2009, and could finish "a strong second." The firm said that Sony might even bring in more software sales than Nintendo by 2012, even if its installed user base isn't as big.
According to DFC, the lack of a single dominant system in the industry isn't just a matter of Nintendo and Microsoft doing a better job of combating Sony with the Wii and Xbox 360 than they did with the GameCube and Xbox, respectively.
The analysts believe that the gaming arena outside of consoles is also growing, and as a result will keep any of the systems from achieving PlayStation 2-like dominance. According to the firm, PS2 software accounted for 30 percent of the entire gaming industry in 2004. For comparison, DFC is predicting that even the best-performing console between 2010 and 2012 will at most account for 15 percent of the overall industry.
"One of the fastest-growing segments of the interactive entertainment market is actually PC games," DFC's report noted, a fact that points to the platform as an ideal place for developers to try out new genres and business models. "The PC game business is expected to grow over 80 percent over the next five years."

Source: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6180072.html?tag=latestnews;title;0


Interesting.

 

[cookiva]

Even though I wish it was true, I find that hard to believe.

 

[Superman1314]

Even though I wish it was true, I find that hard to believe.

Why so hard to believe? It makes a hell of alot of sense, and I've been touting pretty much what he wrote all along. It's the fanboys of any system who don't see logic. It's not hard to believe in the slightest, even the statement that none of the systems will achieve PS2 status. There are alot of outside factors now days.

 

[cookiva]

Oh, I know that none (outside of the DS maybe) will reach the PS2's status. That said, IF (thats an if guys, dont bash) Sony does lose MGS and FF13, then I honestly cant see the PS3 beating the 360. However, if Sony does keep its exclusives, then yes, I can see them overtaking the 360 for second, but not distancing themselves from the Xbox 360.

This race will be close, and that article makes it sound like the PS3 will sell 20 million more units and the 360 sells another million by they next gen.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I can see what they're saying if you're talking world-wide because Microsoft is and always will be so far behind in Japan.

 

[Borax]

I think the PS3 has a big holiday season ahead of it and of course a big year, now if MS decided to release Halo 3 closer to Christmas then they would've had that sewn up... but the September release gives 2 full months for the PS3/Wii requests to come in... add in the factor that the 360 has been around for what 2 years now it wont be a big thing this year... PS3 has a big chance

 

[Drizzle]

They're dreaming if they think the PS3 will beat out the 360.

This Christmas will belong to the Wii, I think.

 

[cookiva]

Smash and Mario? Oh ya....oh ya.

 

[GoldenAgeHero]

oh no,oh no.

 

[Purple Prancer]

What a ****ing joke.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I think the PS3 has a big holiday season ahead of it and of course a big year, now if MS decided to release Halo 3 closer to Christmas then they would've had that sewn up... but the September release gives 2 full months for the PS3/Wii requests to come in... add in the factor that the 360 has been around for what 2 years now it wont be a big thing this year... PS3 has a big chance

Why would you buy a PS3 this Christmas? What's the exclusive killer app being released? All I can think of is Ratchet & Clank and while it's a great series, I'm not sure it would be classified as a system seller, everything else is multiplatform, so you can get a system with the same games for $200 less. Would it have been better if Microsoft released Halo 3 later, closer to the Christmas season, probably, but even released this early the game will move systems over the holidays. There really is no motivation to buy a PS3 this Christmas.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Why would you buy a PS3 this Christmas? What's the exclusive killer app being released? All I can think of is Ratchet & Clank and while it's a great series, I'm not sure it would be classified as a system seller, everything else is multiplatform, so you can get a system with the same games for $200 less. Would it have been better if Microsoft released Halo 3 later, closer to the Christmas season, probably, but even released this early the game will move systems over the holidays. There really is no motivation to buy a PS3 this Christmas.

Yeah, next year will be the time to buy a Playstation 3 IMO. A much better game library with the inclusion of Metal Gear Solid 4, Uncharted, Grand Theft Auto IV, etc. and a lower, more competitive price point.

 

[KALEL114]

Why would you buy a PS3 this Christmas? What's the exclusive killer app being released? All I can think of is Ratchet & Clank and while it's a great series, I'm not sure it would be classified as a system seller, everything else is multiplatform, so you can get a system with the same games for $200 less. Would it have been better if Microsoft released Halo 3 later, closer to the Christmas season, probably, but even released this early the game will move systems over the holidays. There really is no motivation to buy a PS3 this Christmas.

Don't forget Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune. It will help sell systems. Not to mention the very big possibility of the 40gig/$399.99 system coming out before Christmas.

 

[Borax]

Which is why people will want to have their consoles in place for the launch dates of the killer apps... just a theory, doesn't effect me at all but it's worth a shot... PS3 isn't much more expensive than a 360 where I am, plus the games are pretty much the same price, so worldwide there's a possibility but I certainly wouldn't bank on it

Not to mention that by the time you buy the add ons for the 360, plus a couple of games thrown in, an extra controller... it'll be more expensive than the PS3 starter pack which includes extras

 

[hippy fascist]

Which is why people will want to have their consoles in place for the launch dates of the killer apps... just a theory, doesn't effect me at all but it's worth a shot... PS3 isn't much more expensive than a 360 where I am, plus the games are pretty much the same price, so worldwide there's a possibility but I certainly wouldn't bank on it

Not to mention that by the time you buy the add ons for the 360, plus a couple of games thrown in, an extra controller... it'll be more expensive than the PS3 starter pack which includes extras

But that's why most people aren't buying ps3s. They don't want all te add-ons, they just want a gaming machine

PS3's a great media centre, but people who want a great media centre will not buy a console

They should be appealing to gamers first and foremost, that's why they're last

 

[Zenien]

Well they're last because of price.

 

[hippy fascist]

because of forcing needless tech on the consumer

 

[GFreeman]

Price is just one of the many reasons they're last.

 

[Devil May Cry]

IMO.

1. Price
2. Not enough games

Fix those two in '08.

 

[Zenien]

Price is a far bigger reason then just the games, though.

 

[Havok83]

IMO.

1. Price
2. Not enough games

Fix those two in '08.

fortunetly it looks like things are looking up on both fronts

 

[cookiva]

Price is a far bigger reason then just the games, though.

No its not. Why would someone buy something, then not use it? There are not enough games, and trying to say that price is the biggest downfall of the PS3 is laughable. If anything, its easily split amongst consumers. Why buy a console for that much money if there are no apps for it?