Analyst says PS3 could be 3rd

[Spidey-Bat]

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6153458.html

DFC Intelligence says Sony could "easily go from first to worst"; thinks brand strength, market position can't overcome $600 price.

In the next-gen console race, there are three main competitors: Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony. While many would love to see someone come out with some sort of "Everybody is a winner, hooray!" scenario, the simple truth is one company is going to be declared the loser. Though the finish line is still far down the road, industry analysts are already predicting who will break the tape and who will bring up the rear.

Sony has clearly been the favorite in recent years thanks to the unparalleled success of its PlayStation and PlayStation 2, but one analyst firm believes that the company may tumble down from the top of the heap. In a memo sent out today, San Diego-based DFC Intelligence explained how Sony could go from first to worst.

Though the memo contains the disclaimer that the prediction is "only one of several possible scenarios," DFC appears to be leaning towards Microsoft and Nintendo coming out on top through the next generation.

The main reason DFC sees a slide for Sony is the $600 price tag on the high-end version of the PlayStation 3. Though Sony has touted the machine as inexpensive relative to the hardware contained within it, DFC doesn't think consumers will see it that way.

"Sony has done very little to justify why the system is worth a premium price for consumers that don't care about raw hardware performance and are not hard-core audio/visual consumers," DFC said. "Unfortunately we believe that represents over 90% of the consumers in the marketplace."

DFC recognizes that software plays a large part in buyers' decisions, and points out that the PS2 was so successful because of its diverse portfolio of games and large third-party support. The broad range of software made the PS2 "a complete entertainment system for the family priced under $300," said DFC.

"With the PlayStation 3 the company is going after the high-end power user. It is almost as if Coca-Cola not only decided to go with a new formula, but also decided to exit the low-brow soft-drink business to go into high-end wines," DFC explains. "Of course, there is a market for high-end products but it is 1) a very different consumer type and 2) not nearly as big as the blue collar mass market. Wal-Mart sells more toys than FAO Schwartz and McDonald's sells more beef than Ruth's Chris Steak House."

There doesn't seem to be much of an easy way to right the ship, either. According to DFC, Sony may have drastically underestimated the competition and will have a lot of trouble cutting the price, particularly in time for the critical 2007 holiday season.

"A $600 price point is okay for launch but it will not fly in holiday 2007. If Sony wants to drive unit volume 2007 needs to be not only the year of price cuts, but the year of drastic price cuts. There is going to be a shakeup in the video game industry and even if Sony executes perfectly there could be a new market leader in two years."

 

[GoldenAgeHero]

sweet!

 

[WeeZiTe]

That means nothing though. I disagree with where Sony is taking their system and all but Sony has a huge fanbase.. Really, there's no way that anybody can tell which console will "win" this generation because really it could go to any of the three. They all have their strong and weak points.

Besides who really cares about who wins a generation.. Sure everyone has a console they prefer but it's not like people should root for theirs like for a sports team. I always thought this was funny.

 

[Aiden]

Awesome...

 

[GL1]

It certainly would be nice if superior quality would win out this time though... I'd like to hope DFC is accurate...

 

[lars573]

Gamming audiences being what they are, I doubt that the PS3 will be 3rd.

 

[Spidey-Bat]

I think PS3 and Wii will fight for #1. If the 360 had a bigger appeal in Japan, it would easily be #1.

 

[ProjectPat2280]

I think PS3 and Wii will fight for #1. If the 360 had a bigger appeal in Japan, it would easily be #1.

The Wii will be far far far behind both the xbox and playstation.

 

[Spidey-Bat]

The Wii will be far far far behind both the xbox and playstation.

Nope. The 360 lacks Japanese support, crucial to being #1. PS3 is a lot, even the Japanese won't eat it up like they've done for the PS1 and PS2. The Wii will definately be bigger competition for MS and Sony due to it's uniqueness and, ofcourse, price.

 

[Iceman]

The main reason given in the article for PS3 coming last is price, something which can be changed over the life of the machine. Obviously some will pay the full price at launch but if the machine struggles, Sony will be forced to revise the price and sales will then increase.

 

[GoldenAgeHero]

The main reason given in the article for PS3 coming last is price, something which can be changed over the life of the machine. Obviously some will pay the full price at launch but if the machine struggles, Sony will be forced to revise the price and sales will then increase.

yet go broke at the same time. sony are already expecting an 844 million dollar loss.theres no way they'll drop the price so soon in it's life. amybe in fall of 2007. any earlier is a death warrant

 

[Doc_OCK_4MUGEN]

The Wii will be far far far behind both the xbox and playstation.

Yeah... in your dreams... So far the Wii has two out of three things needed to win the console war... Innovation and affordability... the only thing missing is the head start... which the 360 has... The ps3 has two huge disadvanteges right now Price and lateness... And the 360 lacks support in Japan... Unless some freak accident happens Wii Wiill Rock you!!!
What's with your Wii hate? Is it the name? Is it that it isn't Microsoft or Sony?

 

[WeeZiTe]

Yeah... in your dreams... So far the Wii has two out of three things needed to win the console war... Innovation and affordability... the only thing missing is the head start... which the 360 has... The ps3 has two huge disadvanteges right now Price and lateness... And the 360 lacks support in Japan... Unless some freak accident happens Wii Wiill Rock you!!!
What's with your Wii hate? Is it the name? Is it that it isn't Microsoft or Sony?

No, Wii lacks a lot of things. Whether or not some people like to believe it, graphics are a big deal. Wii's graphics not making a huge leap is going to hold them back. Their 3rd party support could make or break them. Sure, they have a lot at launch but lets see if they can keep it that way. But then look at the good things they have to offer. Great new technology that people are excited for. The low price is huge for them. Arguably the best first party titles. They got the whole video game community excited, I just hope they deliver. I know I can't wait to get one.

360 has a head start, great hardware, and a great library of games. That's all the makings for a console frontrunner. Also. with the rumored price drop before Sony and Nintendo sell their first system, 360 is sitting in a pretty good place right now..... in North America. They have little to no support in Japan. That makes it hard for them to still sell the most systems this gen however it is still completely possible for them to do it.

Sony has been on top for the last 2 generations so they obviously did something right. They have a huge devoted fanbase and a great library of games. If they were to release the PS3 as a games system and not something for home entertainment, they would probably be the winner of this gen flat out. However, they focused on other things this gen. Throwing unreleased technology in with their new system without even knowing whether or not the technology will be around for this whole gen is pretty risky. It's not as huge of a jump between VHS and DVD was and I saw a Bluray setup at Best Buy a few days ago... I really wasn't impressed. So this drove up the price of the PS3 a ****load to the point where most gamers can't afford it. I know I was considering getting one a little after launch but that went out the window because of the price. Also, their arrogance really annoys me. They really think that no one can dethrone them.. Well, if they keep playing this way, it'll probably happen.

Seriously, this gen could go ANYWAY... It's really close and every system has huge positives and also glaring negatives.

 

[Horrorfan]

Nope. The 360 lacks Japanese support, crucial to being #1. PS3 is a lot, even the Japanese won't eat it up like they've done for the PS1 and PS2. The Wii will definately be bigger competition for MS and Sony due to it's uniqueness and, ofcourse, price.

But see, being number 2 in Japan STILL didn't help the Cube overall. It still ended up third. I personally think Japan's ''importance'' is hugely overrated.


Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see PS3 come last, if only for sony's sheer arrogance.

I don't think Wii can beat 360 because it's just not impressive enough, in terms of pure power...I think it will get an audience, but 360 is the ''cooler'' machine in many eyes. I think it has a great shot of coming second though.

 

[JackBauer]

we pretty much figured everything in that article by ourselves. no need for someone to tell us that Sony's f***in themselves in the a$$.

 

[lars573]

But see, being number 2 in Japan STILL didn't help the Cube overall. It still ended up third. I personally think Japan's ''importance'' is hugely overrated.


Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see PS3 come last, if only for sony's sheer arrogance.

I don't think Wii can beat 360 because it's just not impressive enough, in terms of pure power...I think it will get an audience, but 360 is the ''cooler'' machine in many eyes. I think it has a great shot of coming second though.

Japans importance is not overated. 5 years ago everyone said that the industry couldn't support 3 consoles. Yet here we are going into a second generation with 3 consoles. Why did this happen? Because the Japanese bought the Gamecube and not the Xbox. Where as in Europe and NA the Gamecube was third. The PS3 won't fail because the Japanese would have to buy the 360, and that is not happening. Not yet at any rate. Maybe next time round.

 

[Spidey-Bat]

But see, being number 2 in Japan STILL didn't help the Cube overall. It still ended up third. I personally think Japan's ''importance'' is hugely overrated.

That's b/c it was 3rd in Europe and North America. Obviousy those 2 combined are bigger than the Japanese martket.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see PS3 come last, if only for sony's sheer arrogance.

I don't think Wii can beat 360 because it's just not impressive enough, in terms of pure power...I think it will get an audience, but 360 is the ''cooler'' machine in many eyes. I think it has a great shot of coming second though.

Wii may not be the most powerful, but it is the most unique. The Japanese LOVE bizarre, odd games like Chibi-Robo, Pikmin, Brain Age, etc. Look at the Xbox, it only sold a few million more than the Gamecube. If it had more appeal to the Japanese, it would have easily outsold the Gamecube.

 

[Horrorfan]

That's b/c it was 3rd in Europe and North America. Obviousy those 2 combined are bigger than the Japanese martket.




Wii may not be the most powerful, but it is the most unique. The Japanese LOVE bizarre, odd games like Chibi-Robo, Pikmin, Brain Age, etc. Look at the Xbox, it only sold a few million more than the Gamecube. If it had more appeal to the Japanese, it would have easily outsold the Gamecube.

Yes, the JAPANESE love it....again, overrated. It didn't help Gamecube at all, and PS2 would still have outsold X Box in America and Europe anyway... so as far as I am concerned, those are the only markets worth looking at.

The Japanese market, imo, has shown it's irrelevent, because it made no difference to Gamecube at all.

I am not biased against Wii, I am very intriuged, and it could have some great games given time...but I am not convinced that it's more than a gimmick JUST yet...I will have to wait for it to be out for a while and then see where I stand. I don't have confidence enough to buy it at launch yet, but still intrigued nontheless.

But if PS3 comes ANYWHERE but third this time, humanity must die

 

[Spidey-Bat]

Yes, the JAPANESE love it....again, overrated. It didn't help Gamecube at all, and PS2 would still have outsold X Box in America and Europe anyway... so as far as I am concerned, those are the only markets worth looking at.

Those are not the only 2 markets worth looking at. No matter which 2 you look at, they are bigger than the 3rd. The Japanese market is crucial to being number one. Look at the Xbox, it had bigger support in NA and Europe and virtually none in Japan. It has only sold 3.15 million more units than the Gamecube, not a whole lot.

 

[Horrorfan]

Those are not the only 2 markets worth looking at. No matter which 2 you look at, they are bigger than the 3rd. The Japanese market is crucial to being number one. Look at the Xbox, it had bigger support in NA and Europe and virtually none in Japan. It has only sold 3.15 million more units than the Gamecube, not a whole lot.

That sounds like a lot to me......without Japan, it still outsold Cube, so Japan really can't matter that much.

Are you saying PS2 wouldn't have been number one without Japan then?

 

[Spidey-Bat]

That sounds like a lot to me......without Japan, it still outsold Cube, so Japan really can't matter that much.

3.15 million is not a lot. The NA and Europe, together, outnumber Japan. However, Japan is bigger on it's own than the other two on their own. The GC had enough support to be #2 in Japan, but not enough in NA and Europe to be #2, so it was #3.

Are you saying PS2 wouldn't have been number one without Japan then?

No, but it wouldn't have had sold almost 5 times more than Xbox or GC.

 

[xwolverine2]

they had it comin.

600$$! common!

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think PS3 and Wii will fight for #1. If the 360 had a bigger appeal in Japan, it would easily be #1.

That's what I think. I honestly think that Sony would easily have the #1 position if drops that redicluous price tag and if it stopped saying stupid ass comments such as "paying for potential", "4-D", and calling it a "super-computer"

 

[Mentok]

I know that the PS3 will be good. I have however decided not to buy one because of the way sony are acting (silly prices, treating us like idiots).

I know im not the only one who woont be buying one for a very long time because of this.

I can see Sony taking a huge hit this generation.

Wii will probably come out on top... Even though most people wont count it because its not a 'real next gen' console.

 

[The Riddler]

nintendo ftw.