Deadpool Deadpool Box Office Prediction Thread

[jmc]

The truth is every weekend is a bankable weekend for a film. This whole thing about there being dumping ground months is nothing but a self generate idea that has no basis for fact. Where exactly was there any proof that said January or February were times where no-one went to see movies? There is none, and once again old and stale ideas from studio execs and supposed marketing experts has been proven wrong. The rating doesn't matter, the time of year doesn't matter, all that mattes is the quality of the film and the amount of money you spend promoting it. How many good films have we had over the last few years been wasted because they weren't marketed well?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I'm guessing the movie will gross over $800 million.

 

[jmc]

20th Century Fox’s Deadpool is bigger than anyone thought possible. Yes, it has scored the top opening for a February release with $135M over FSS and $150M-$153M over FSSM, beating Fifty Shades of Grey‘s first weekend figures last year. But, Deadpool also flogged Matrix Reloaded‘s $91.8M opening record to become the highest R-rated debut of all-time, not to mention it’s the biggest opening Fox executives have ever seen, surpassing Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (FSS $108.4M).

How did Deadpool set the box office on fire? Fox conservatively projected the weekend for this R-rated supehero movie in the $60M-$65M range last week. Rival distribution chiefs had the Marvel anti-hero film as high as $80M. But even they were off.

As we saw with the surprise then-all-time record opening of Jurassic World last June, when it comes to record openings and tracking, the statistical sampling is small, making it hard for industry chiefs to predict. There was a little bit of that going on with Deadpool.

An R-rated supehero movie in the dead of winter blowing the top off the B.O. is highly unusual. That’s why projections were so low on Deadpool. The last R-rated comic book properties to play the first quarter of the year were Warner Bros. Watchmen ($55.2M opening) in 2009 and 300 ($70.9M) in 2007. Given Deadpool‘s strong tracking, if the film was rated PG-13, that would have prompted estimates to be in the $125M-$150M range.

“An R-rated superhero film like this had never been done before. And when it’s never been done before, it’s hard to comp and predict. You’re doing something that’s never been done. It’s like you throw the rulebook out the window,” said Fox domestic distribution chief Chris Aronson on Deadpool’s tracking.

“That R gave everyone pause for concern,” said one rival distribution insider this morning, “Then throw in Valentine’s Day on Sunday and a holiday Monday and it is really hard to predict. We all knew it would be great but calling a performance this strong is just not possible.”

Even though Deadpool carried a low production cost for a comic book film of $58M, it was definitely a gamble. Remember Lionsgate’s critically acclaimed 2010 film Kick Ass? That comic book property, which also was an anarchistic send-up of the superhero genre, was predicted to be a surprise spring hit opening to $30M at the time, but it fell on its face during its first weekend with $19.8M and a final domestic of $48M. Why did that ultra violent comic book film fizzle and Deadpool overpower? Essentially as a Marvel brand, Deadpool is more popular with a significant groundswell coming from a popular Activision video game and a strong presence on social media. Not to mention, audiences are responding to Ryan Reynolds’ transcending turn as Deadpool (47% cited the actor as the main reason why they bought tickets this weekend). Forty-one percent of all moviegoers told ComScore’s PostTrak that they were planning to see this movie well before they left for the theater this weekend. Fandango reported that Deadpool was their highest February advance ticket seller.

While the assumption is that rival distribution executives always like to snark on the competition, this morning they were in complete awe at Fox’s success. One marketing executive applauded Fox’s unconventional marketing campaign and its ability to pull a good portion of women to Deadpool. Another suit got to the heart of the matter as to why Deadpool is truly resonating: “The film has a self-deprecating tone that’s riotous. It’s never been done before. It’s poking fun at Marvel. That label takes itself so seriously, can you imagine them making fun of themselves in a movie? They’d rather stab themselves.” (X-Men and Deadpool film rights were sold to Fox years ago; thus falling outside the Disney Marvel empire).

In sum, the anti-superhero movie, complete with nudity and bawdy jokes, drew an A CinemaScore and a 97% excellent/very good PostTrak score. The latter polling org also stated that 52% of all moviegoers felt that Deadpool met their expectations while another 45% said it exceeded them. Amazing.

“In a way it’s similar to The Revenant: We’ve taken a seemingly familiar genre and turned it upside down in an incredibly creative way that audiences really responded to,” said Aronson about Deadpool‘s success.

After posting the biggest opening day in February with $47.5M, Deadpool also scored the second biggest day ever for the month with an estimated $42.6M. Typically fanboy films are frontloaded, seeing drops of at least a third in their second day. Deadpool dipped -10%. PLF screens at 465 repped 13% of Deadpool‘s FSS or $17.6M. That’s the biggest R-rated opening for the PLF format, knocking out its previous $8.7M high from American Sniper. Imax is tabulating a February and R-rated record of $16.8M over FSS and $19M over FSSM. Deadpool is also the second best opening ever for the first installment of a superhero property behind Disney/Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.4M).

http://deadline.com/2016/02/deadpoo...gle-valentines-weekend-box-office-1201699895/

It's mind boggling to think that only Avengers has been a bigger debut franchise, but what's makes Deadpool even more remarkable is there was no lead up to this success. Avengers can be easily argued it had an advantage with previous solo films, but this, for what was essentially a C-list character, is nothing short of amazing.

 

[def28]

His popularity took over Marvel comics and merch around 09/10 right when Reynolds was cast in Origins. Dude went from 1 comic an zero merch in between 01-09 to 30 titles and being one of Marvels top merch sellers between 09-16. All he was missing was a film. And these guys knew exactly how to write and market him.

They stole the show at SDCC, and had arguably the most successful campaign leading up to the film with social media. That leaked footage essentially played as an early trailer, getting the word out early. These guys did everything right and had perfect timing. Couldn't have hit the hype train better, and I don't think theres any other character that could have been marketed to stand out like this.

After 11 years of trying to get this made, having faith in the characters and constantly making an effort to get the fans involved there isn't anyone in the superhero game that deserves this more then Reynolds.

 

[Wildcard]

^ Agreed on every single damn point. Deadpool's a certified star now, the same star Wolverine was supposed to be. Except now he's ten times bigger & a true worldwide sensation.

It's crazy when you really stop and think about it all....if you had told me this movie would be this massive back when the footage leaked I'd have laughed my ass off & called you crazy.

This movie blew away even everyone's best expectations. Just goes to show there's a huge benefit to providing something new to the general audience that's also true to it's source material 100%.

 

[Retroman]

I have to wonder if Dredd would've earned enough for a sequel with the studio fully behind it.

I'm sure there might some regrets from studio execs right now about Dredd.Things could have been so much different if it had a good marketing campaign like Deadpool's.

I really enjoyed the movie (saw it in cinemas + own the dvd) and couldn't believe it did as badly as it did at the box office.

The truth is every weekend is a bankable weekend for a film. This whole thing about there being dumping ground months is nothing but a self generate idea that has no basis for fact. Where exactly was there any proof that said January or February were times where no-one went to see movies? There is none, and once again old and stale ideas from studio execs and supposed marketing experts has been proven wrong. The rating doesn't matter, the time of year doesn't matter, all that mattes is the quality of the film and the amount of money you spend promoting it. How many good films have we had over the last few years been wasted because they weren't marketed well?

Well said.

 

[Eddie]

"That label takes itself so seriously, can you imagine them making fun of themselves in a movie? They’d rather stab themselves."

What moron WB exec said that?! The studio making the movies about the talking raccoon and the thief that can't hold a Baskin-Robbins job take themselves too seriously?! Uh...

 

[def28]

^ Agreed on every single damn point. Deadpool's a certified star now, the same star Wolverine was supposed to be. Except now he's ten times bigger & a true worldwide sensation.

It's crazy when you really stop and think about it all....if you had told me this movie would be this massive back when the footage leaked I'd have laughed my ass off & called you crazy.

This movie blew away even everyone's best expectations. Just goes to show there's a huge benefit to providing something new to the general audience that's also true to it's source material 100%.

Most if us were hoping for 300-400m. The argument was constantly that this film would be only for fans. So it's awesome to once again see that when you perfectly capture why a character is enjoyed by it's fanbase it's important to keep those elements and respect it for audiences as well.

Tom Rothman should be loving this haha.

 

[Blade X]

I don't quite think that is the takeaway. As quite a few comic book films will still go for that toy money, and I don't think you can quite get away with marketing toys to an R rated film as you used to.

You hit the nail right on the head. Hell, if Marvel and FOX were on good terms the DP movie would have been rated PG-13 since Marvel would be putting out a lot of toy and merchandise tie ins for the film.

Now, we may see a resurgence of true R rated action films, which would be great.

Now that is something I would like to see.

 

[Eddie]

You hit the nail right on the head. Hell, if Marvel and FOX were on good terms the DP movie would have been rated PG-13 since Marvel would be putting out a lot of toy and merchandise tie ins for the film.



Now that is something I would like to see.

Marvel had no issue with the film being R rated. They released a LOT of Deadpool merchandise, including new toys. The new stuff even has special Deadpool branding instead of general Marvel branding (newest Deadpool Funko line, for example). At least one Russo attended a prerelease screening, and Feige gets an Easter Egg nod in the film.

 

[def28]

Yeah, they even included DP in that new deal along with Daredevil, Jessica Jones and Punisher merch.

http://www.bleedingcool.com/2015/11...ands-in-2016-and-includes-the-comics-as-well/

Marvel are pushing out Daredevil, The Punisher, Jessica Jones and Deadpool merchandise for the grownups with a darker tinge than the usual Avengers, Spider-Man and Guardians of the Galaxy-fare, in the light of more adult-themed Netflix shows and the upcoming adult Deadpool movie.

 

[Blade X]

I agree with you but I'd swap Harley out for Lobo. Lobo is DC's Deadpool. And if ANY movie needs a hard R it's the main man.

No the Creeper,Ambush Bug,and Deathstroke are DC's Deadpool (they each have a one characteristic of DP). And before there was Lobo, there was Marvel's Lunatik (also created by Lobo's creator Kieth Giffen).

 

[Teelie]

I'm guessing at this point that Deadpool will crack $400 million but it might even surpass that.

 

[Blade X]

Count up Deadpool's youtube vids (Pewdie Pie, Machinima etc), comics, merch and games in the past 5 years. It's pretty high man.

Had more exposure then any other Marvel character pre film in the past 10 years.

True, but you forgot about DP's animated appearances. It was in the HULK VS WOLVERINE animated straight to DVD movie where DP first came to the attention of mainstream audiences, many of whom were kids (that's how I introduced the character to my nephew when he was 8). Then there is his appearance in the 3rd season of the ULTIMATE SPIDER-MAN cartoon, which is a popular animated series (despite the first 2 seasons being mostly crap). Youtube videos from both HULK VS and USM have racked over 4 million views each.

 

[Wildcard]

I'm guessing at this point that Deadpool will crack $400 million but it might even surpass that.

$400 million is a low number at this point in the game. The only way this movie stops at that number is if it sees a record-breaking drop in attendance this weekend, but that is extremely doubtful.

Considering it had a $260 million WW gross as a start & has a full month to itself, this movie is definitely going pass $600 million, AT LEAST.

 

[def28]

True, but you forgot about DP's animated appearances. It was in the HULK VS WOLVERINE animated straight to DVD movie where DP first came to the attention of mainstream audiences, many of whom were kids (that's how I introduced the character to my nephew when he was 8). Then there is his appearance in the 3rd season of the ULTIMATE SPIDER-MAN cartoon, which is a popular animated series (despite the first 2 seasons being mostly crap). Youtube videos from both HULK VS and USM have racked over 4 million views each.

I did forget Hulk VS. And yeah that was very popular. But I'm pretty sure when Reynolds was announced as Deadpool in Origins that started the awareness.

Anytime a character is announced in a film, the interest in said character goes up. Along with the controversy alot more people were hearing about Deadpool more then anything prior. Reynolds was the fan favorite since Blade 3 so that got buzz when he was finally cast.

Regardless, 09 is when Marvel started pushing him one way or another. He was featured in a big film, had an animated movie and a new solo ongoing for the first time in almost 10 years.

 

[jmc]

I'm sure there might some regrets from studio execs right now about Dredd.Things could have been so much different if it had a good marketing campaign like Deadpool's.

I really enjoyed the movie (saw it in cinemas + own the dvd) and couldn't believe it did as badly as it did at the box office.

Why did something like Dredd or even Edge of Tomorrow fail to win big at the box office? Zero marketing. How are these type of lesser branded films suppose to make money if there's no effort put into promoting them? I only found out about Edge of Tomorrow 6 weeks before the film opened, and I consider myself a film nerd. So how is the average movie goer suppose to know these things exist?

 

[Blade X]

What exactly do you mean by "more evidence?" The Punisher films haven't made any money. It's a simple business strategy. Market to a wider audience and not just adults and you'll make more money. Oh, and just because something is rated PG-13 doesn't mean it's less grown up than R rated movies. I guarantee you that Civil War will have a more grown up feel than Deadpool.

It's really funny. One R rated superhero movie comes out and everybody loses their minds.

Quoted for the truth.

 

[Blade X]

It never fails. A comic book movie comes out and kills it commercially and critically and some will believe that every other comic book movie should copy it. I know that's going to be what happens in the coming days and months. That's not the lesson to learn from Deadpool or any break out hit.

Quoted for the truth.

 

[Blade X]

And probably find a way to screw it up.

It'll be GREEN LANTERN all over again. Not to mention the fact, that Lobo's popularity pretty much peaked and died in the 90's because the character (a) was over exposed (b) had no redeeming qualities and (c) was way too powerful which made him boring as hell.

 

[Wildcard]

It'll be GREEN LANTERN all over again. Not to mention the fact, that Lobo's popularity pretty much peaked and died in the 90's because the character (a) was over exposed (b) had no redeeming qualities and (c) was way too powerful which made him boring as hell.

Agreed. DC shouldn't look at this and think that they all of a sudden need an R-Rated comic book movie for the sake of it. I agree about Lobo too, though personally I haven't ever found the character interesting. More annoying than anything else.

I doubt he gets his own film.

 

[Blade X]

I agree. Inherently R rated things should stay R rated. Something that just isn't R rated material shouldn't be shoved in that box just cause.

I agree.

Punisher and Blade for instance are just R rated characters.

I disagree. Both Punisher and Blade were originally all ages characters created for and aimed at all ages for decades. Just because a character uses guns and blades to kill bad guys and monsters, doesn't automatically make those characters "R rated". If we go by that criteria, then characters like Prince Valiant,G.I. JOE,TMNT,Indiana Jones,James Bond,and the Lord of the Rings characters would all be R rated.

 

[Blade X]

Definitely, I don't want to start suddenly seeing an R Rated Spiderman movie, he should stay at the rating he currently is. But there are R rated characters the studio's previously might have been hesitant to adapt and Deadpool shows if they are done right they can still be a huge success.

But an R rated Spidey movie could easily be done. All they have to do is adapt either KRAVEN'S LAST HUNT or the Carnage storyline, and they could easily make an R rated Spidey movie. My point is that ANY all ages character could easily have their adventures turned into an R rated movie.

 

[def28]

Just to let you know there is a multi quote option Blade X.

 

[Blade X]

Yeah, this can do nothing but good things for not just R rated movies, but comic book R rated material where studios can take a chance on with really out there stuff. The last R rated comic book film was Watchman and that failed because it wasn't a good movie. This is. The key: Make good movies first and then the out there material in it is the icing on the cake.

The last R rated comic book movies were SIN CITY 2 and DREDD.