Box Office Preview

Discussion in 'Superman Returns' started by Excel, Jan 16, 2006.

  1. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    Marketing
    Superman’s marketing will be the key to weather Superman Returns reaches the uber blockbuster status some are predicting. So far, the films had 1 teaser trailer that aired with Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.It grossed around 290 million in the U.S. and is approaching 900 million worldwide. So its teaser, which was mildly effective, has gotten very big exposure. It’s teaser poster is in theaters and features just the logo. It’s leaving a lot to the mind. With supposably no super bowl spot planned e some might be alarmed at what could be considered a lack of marketing. To describe what’s going on and what’s going to happen, Ill compare this campaign to that of two movies-Batman Begins and Star wars episode 3. At this point, Batman Begins had 2 posters and 2 trailers. It had a superbowl spot. It then had tie ins with March Madness. But what happened? They showed us a lot of marketing early on and when June rolled around, there was nothing. A few tv spots and ad’s but the marketing budget was drained. Star Wars on the other hand, at this point had, like Superman, one teaser trailer that basically got word out the movie was coming. It had a poster that basically said the movie was coming, and left much to the mind. It had no super bowl spot or tie ins with college sports. Obviously Superman’s marketing is comparable to that of Star Wars, and whose marketing turned out to better - Batman or Star Wars? Star wars instead saved its marketing money for May when it counted, and rode a wave of free marketing (read below) to make up for its lack of official stuff, and then bombarded us in the quiet early weeks of May creating a huge hype machine. It was smart marketing and looks to be what W.B.’s doing with Superman.

    Free marketing-free marketing is basically press. Star Wars dominated thislast year and the return of the man of steel looks to do the same this year. It’s magazine covers, articles, talked up on show’s like Entertainment Tonight or Access Hollywood. Superman should ride a wave of free press till June when they’ll release the real good stuff. After a theatrical trailer(hopefully a really good one ala Star Wars) with Blockbuster disaster flick POSEIDON, exposure will be mild to big. Then when everything that’s supposed to get the public interested is released, expect hype to blow up

    Effect-good for now, possibly great around release

    *update: i seem to have been right. superman has gotten incredible free marketing, and the marketing is exploding in may and june like i thought. 3 trailers and posters in may, and in june all the tie ins and tv spots are being released. the hype is growing and 26 days to go, it should be mammoth.

    Theater count
    Theater count will defiantly be in favor of Superman Returns. Opening unmatched on June 30th, Superman is the sole release that will be fighting for screens. The week before features Adam Sandler’s comedy CLICK, which should do his usual 40 million opening and a 120 finish. That will have around 3200 theaters. Garfield 2 and Cars will both still be in 2000. With just CLICK over 3000, and probably just over, Superman Returns will probably open into at least 3800 theaters, probably around 4100, or possibly break the theater count record (4223) and get about 4250

    Effect-good

    *update. 4000 look slike a good estomate, sa cars will still 3000 and click will be in 3200-3400. the man of steel will open to abut 4000 on wednesday and probably increase to 4050 on friday.

    Competition
    With nothing opening against and no real big threat’s in their second weekend, The Man of Steels big screen revival has arguably the most anticipated film of next year in its second weekend; the box office juggernaut Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Mans chest. If it stays on the Friday that should open to 100 million 3 day with relative ease. Talk has it moving back to the following Wednesday but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. The fact is that film appeals to each one of Superman’s prime audiences-the action, kids, and romance genres. Granted superman action will be bigger, it’s more of a kids movie, and the love story plays a bigger part, it will still surely eat into Supermans second weekend. But the fact is Superman should still be in over 4000 theaters which will limit pirates to around 3500-3700 theaters. Add in that if superman opens big it wont lose screens at these theaters and that Pirates should be long(original was 163 minutes), there will be a lot of Pirates sell outs that’ll give Superman more audience. So similar to how Narnia had more screens and show times then Kong did, Superman should have more screens and show times then Pirates 2 will.

    Effect-negative

    *update-while still negative it obviously isnt as big of problem cause superman moved up to wednbesday.

    Release date
    Possibly Superman’s biggest positive source is his release date. The July 4th holiday is always a huge movie time and it will inflate Superman’s opening weekend and week. This inflation means that with good word of mouth, it will help Superman in his second weekend cause if his first weeks 150 million of good word of mouth, that’ll spread and help it’s second weekend out greatly. It also gives Superman time to get a big head start on Pirates of the Caribbean2 for the summer title, as most think it’ll come down to these 2 for the title of biggest film of the summer and possibly of the year.

    Effect- very positive


    Character name appeal and recognition
    Lets be honest, Superman’s the most famous superhero ever created and his world renown recognition ranks up there with Jesus Christ. His logo is second only to the cross. He’s survived for near 70 years in American pop culture and remains big today. The fact is, he’s immensely popular and the name SUPERMAN is a bigger draw then any actor around. His fan base in terms of size is second to none. Not as dedicated as Star Wars or Potter, but in terms of size it’s the biggest

    Effect: positive

    What could happen:
    Lots of things could happen with this flick. What could happen is hype spreads fast and big but the film doesn’t deliver and Pirates 2 does. If this is the case, a 65 million 3 day/105 million 5 day opening en route to a 235 million dollar domestic total and 525 world wide.

    What might happen
    The only comparison Superman really has right now is what happened with Star Wars: Episode 1. Star wars and Superman were both very popular franchise that were popular with everybody-kids, teens, adults-in 70’sand 80’s and are very fondly remembered by most. They were the 2 flagship franchises into SPECIAL EFFECTS. When Star Wars returned in 1999, it’s hype built extremely easily due to the pent up demand from such a popular franchise being gone for so long(it was 16 for them, its 19 for Superman), and the same might happen to Superman. If the film delivers and this happens, expect a 76 3 day/125 5 day, and a 170 million opening week and a total around 340-360 million in the U.S. and near 800 million world wide, even with Pirates of the Caribbean 2.

    What will happen:
    Heres what I think is going to happen though-Superman Returns will open into around 4000 theaters with immense hype and have a opening day of 28 million, with about 5-6 million from combined midnights and 10 pm. screenings. on thursday it will fall to 16 million, and rise on friday to 25 million. itll increase a bit to 25.5 milion and drop to 22.5 million on sunday for a 3 day take of 73 million, and a 5 day of 117 million. a monday drop to 19 million and a tuesday drop to 14 million give it an opening week of 150 million.
    wednesday will see a 50% drop to 7.5 milion, and another 6.8 million on thursday. friday se a 55% friday-to-friday drop, for about
    11.5 million, 14 million on saturday, and then 10 million sunday for a second weekend of 35.5 million, -49%, and giving it a 12 day total of 200 million, and ending out around 283 million in the united staes, and about 342 million overseas for a huge 625 million worldwide take.
     
  2. dr collossus

    dr collossus I've been expecting you

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    Er...ok.

    Where did you get all those figures from? They all seem a bit arbitrary.
     
  3. Weadazoid

    Weadazoid Registered

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    Excell how much do you think Pirates will make? I think your numbers are a bit high, wouldn't think so if it had may date and only one or two other movies around it.


    Weren't you 100% sure Pirates would move at one point... hey it could still happen, films have been known to flinch look at F4.

    also your SW compariosn is a bit off IMO

    The Og Star wars made 307 Million before any re isses in 1977 Superman did not even make half in 1978
     
  4. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    pirates....115/345 i doubt itll move after the success of narnia in the battle it had with kong. but i dont think a 90/280s high.....
     
  5. Weadazoid

    Weadazoid Registered

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    I think SR will run at about 90 to 100 on opening weekend, it will be the 4rth of July movie to go see, where it's legs carry it still left to be seen. I want to say it reaches 300 Million easily domestic but hey I thought the same of Kong, now that seems impossible.

    the only thing that hurst Supes is this

    Superman $134,218,018 12/15/1978
    Superman II $108,185,706 6/19/1981
    Superman III $59,950,623 6/17/1983
    Superman IV: The Quest for Peace $15,681,020 7/24/1987

    that is a SERIOUS drop in public support now I know this movie will erase memories of the Quest and I know 1987 is long time ago, but it still lingers in the back of my mind.


    just a reminder Star wars

    Star Wars $307,263,857 5/25/1977
    Star Wars (Re-issue) $15,476,285 8/13/1982
    Star Wars (Special Edition) $138,257,865 1/31/1997

    is and wil always be in a leuague of it's own when it comes to fan bases.


    Do you think if they re edited Superman TMP in 1998 (Instead of ever doing the Quest) the numbers to go see it again would have been huge.
     
  6. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    well superman 2 woulda beaten superman 1 except it opened against a small, 240million dollar blockbustercalled raiders of the lost arc.
     
  7. Fatboy Roberts

    Fatboy Roberts Registered

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    134 Million in 1978 was nothing to sneeze at. At the time, I believe it was the 9th highest grossing movie ever. top ten all time boxoffice straight out the gate is pretty impressive.

    I also don't think people will consider it an either/or thing with Superman and Pirates of the Caribbean. People will choose both. If anything, it might prolong the legs both films will have, because people who see the one will see the other the next weekend
     
  8. Mentok

    Mentok Registered

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    Sounda about right, although I am not a Box Office ****e and am not that good at judging those things...

    ... I wonder how much it will take in DVD sales.
     
  9. Mr. Socko

    Mr. Socko Registered

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    I hate how people mention how bad Batman Begins did compared to Revenge of The Sith. Star Wars Episode III was destined to do great because of the HUGE fan base and it being the very last Star Wars movie(to our knowledge, you know how George Luca$ works, but that is another story for another time). The last Batman movie before Begins did awful leaving a bad taste in everyone's mouth so they had they doubts about a Batman Begins. Superman has been anticipated for a very long time and we haven't had a Superman movie since the 80s and a good Superman movie since the 70s. So lets compare it to something realistic and not Batman Begins. Star Wars Episode I, it had been 16 years since the people had a Star Wars movie and when Episode I came out, everyone was in line to see it. I definitely see Superman returns doing over 600 worldwide, it'll probably get the highest gross of the year.
     
  10. Cinemaman

    Cinemaman Registered

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    Excel, I don't think it will be true.

    1. "Star Wars" is popular franchise and that is why Revenge of the Sith (ROTS) didn't have big marketing.
    I think SR should have some bigger, but not like BB.

    2. ROTS released on May 19th, it wasn't a hard month to break $300m cross. And SR will be on June 30th, that is why I doubt SR will have more than $370m.

    3. July 4th isn't a problem for movie like Superman. This superhero is American icon, so I think it will help SR to get big money.

    4. Look at Spidey 2. It was realesed on 30th June too, but it had $373m.

    5. People thought that Kong would win compitition with Narnia. But it didn't. Narnia realesed one week earlier than Kong, and now it had $546m in worldwide.

    6. About SR vs. POTC2, look at competition between Spidey and Star Wars II. It look like competotion between SR and POTC2. Plus, Spidey was realesed a one week before Attack of Clones.

    7. I don't think POTC will have bigger box-office than SR in Domestic. But I don't think SR will have bigger box-office than POTC2 in overseas.

    8. American people likes this hero, children and teenagers will go to see this great movie.

    9. In overseas people likes POTC, so POTC2 will have a big money.

    10. I think SR should have more than $35m opening day.

    11. Look at competition between Spidey 2 and King Arthur.
    Of course I don't think POTC2 will not have more than $300m.

    12. My forecast.

    SR
    Domestic: $340m-350m
    Overseas: $370-380m
    Worldwide: $720m-730m

    POTC2
    Domestic: $290m-300m
    Overseas: $390m-400m
    Worldwide: $680m-$690m
     
  11. kakashi

    kakashi Registered

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    I'm not a box office expert....and not really good at judging those things.

    Excel, i'm sure those points you mentioned in your post such as release date, competition and name appeal will help SR box office performance. I just personally don't think that SR will be THAT huge a success.

    There's one more thing that could be a stumbling block in my opinion. People might see SR as ' just another Superman movie'

    Don't get me wrong...i definitely think that SR will be succesfull...Just not as succesfull as some of us might expects.

    Personally i think it will make as much money as BB...maybe a bit more...or a bit less.
     
  12. ohmshalone

    ohmshalone on the brink of sanity

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    special effects don't sell movies anymore as much as they did in the 80's and 90's ( I wasn't born in the 70's, but I'm guessing they did then too), at least that's what I think is one of the reasons the Box office is going down.

    SR needs to really deliver in the non-action scenes to make it big
     
  13. Superchan

    Superchan Registered

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    While nothing can compare to starwars's appeal, Superman's iconic status and the movie's quality (if good/great) will launch SR into box office gold. I personally think superman's box office triumph will be oversees, and a 400-450million international take is well within reach if the movie's quality is high, since donner's original did about 456 million internationally (adjusted from 163 million). People really shouldn't underestimate superman's international appeal, as it easily surpasses his domestic one!
    Domestically, I could see superman doing 280-310 million if again the movie's quality lives up to expectations.
    This leaves SR at the 700 million mark, with DVD and merchandising guaranteeing us many sequels to come.
    As for Pirates, sure the movie will have a huge opening, but not even johnny depp's great performance will champion the movie if it doesn't live up to the original, which is rarely the case with sequels. Never the less, pirates will do great B.O. (after all, its designed for it!), and like Fatboy Roberts stated, there is no reason why these 2 massive movies wouldn't help instead of sink eachother at the B.O.
     
  14. ohmshalone

    ohmshalone on the brink of sanity

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    hasn't Hollywood found the cure for sequalitis?

    Spider-man 2, X2

    there not as immediately recognisable as better movies over their predessesors (sp?) as much as terminator 2, but...? Hollywood's getting better at finding a path for sequals

    EDIT: but fine, i guess you're talking about money, not quality
     
  15. Superchan

    Superchan Registered

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    Very true, but those are exceptions to the rule. Sequals rarely live up to their predecessors.
     
  16. Mentok

    Mentok Registered

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    Spider-Man 2 sucked :down
     
  17. Scooter

    Scooter Registered

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    :down
     
  18. Mentok

    Mentok Registered

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  19. Scooter

    Scooter Registered

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    Well, maybe...but at least it wasn't as bad as Superman: The Movie.


    :o :down
     
  20. Excel

    Excel O-bama-ama-ama-ay-ay

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    imo superman 2 is still the best super hero sequel n will never be toped. perfect in everyway.
     
  21. Cinemaman

    Cinemaman Registered

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    The one thing that I afraid is competition.
    Examples:
    2002 Spidey vs. Star Wars - Spidey won.
    2003 POTC vs. T3 - POTC won
    2004 Spidey2 vs. King Arthur - Spidey2 won.
    2005 Kong vs. Narnia - I think Narnia will win.
    2006 SR vs. POTC2

    SR realesed one week before POTC2 will, so SR should have about $200m in sesond weekend.
    And SR will win because it has kids and teens.
    But sometimes I thinks that there would be a situation like T3 vs. POTC.
    And sometimes I thinks there will be a situation like Spidey vs. SW.
     
  22. explode7

    explode7 Registered

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    Believe me people SR wont make much overseas because everyone I asked said they are expecting POTC2 more since I live in the Caribbean. They just watched SR pics of BR and their reaction were like they don't care. But I still think it might do 200 million if thats any good for u guys and your BO predictions.
     
  23. Cinemaman

    Cinemaman Registered

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    U lives in Caribbean, POTC.
    In overseas SR will make more than $350m, believe me.
    When people see SR trailer, they will say it is cool.
     
  24. dark_b

    dark_b Registered

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    king arthur??? this is not a summer blockbuster :o
     
  25. Cinemaman

    Cinemaman Registered

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    King Arthur
    Release Date: July 7, 2004
    Domestic: $51,882,244 25.5%+ Overseas: $151,518,000 74.5%= Worldwide: $203,400,244
     

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