Sci-Fi Dune

[Deck Rickard]

Fair enough. I really don't know.

 

[DarkKnight88]

I don’t think it matters at all if people have prior knowledge of the book or not. It’ll all come down to the marketing and then word of mouth.

I mean, nobody knew Avatar pre-2009 and that drew people in based on the marketing and word of mouth. Yes, James Cameron is a big time filmmaker but his name to the general public is maybe the guy who directed Titanic. Doesn’t mean they’re interested in his sci-fi giant blue people movie.

 

[MadVillainy]

Yeah brand recognition doesnt necessarily equal box office success

 

[Schlosser85]

I don’t think it matters at all if people have prior knowledge of the book or not. It’ll all come down to the marketing and then word of mouth.

I mean, nobody knew Avatar pre-2009 and that drew people in based on the marketing and word of mouth. Yes, James Cameron is a big time filmmaker but his name to the general public is maybe the guy who directed Titanic. Doesn’t mean they’re interested in his sci-fi giant blue people movie.

Everybody knows who James Cameron is.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Everybody knows who James Cameron is.

The point being that wasn’t going to make the movie about giant blue aliens a 2 billion movie.

It was stellar marketing and then word of mouth. You GET people interested whether they know the IP or not.

 

[Deck Rickard]

I've seen Dune compared to Lord of the Rings a lot over the years. Would we say that Dune is about as well-known as LOTR was prior to the movies? Or not at that level? Because if it is, then that might give us an indication as to how well this movie could do financially if there is a compelling trailer released. Perhaps even more so... we have to remember that when Fellowship came out, YouTube wasn't a thing and you had to go to the theaters or watch awful shows like Entertainment Tonight to see movie trailers. Yet the film looked so good that people who weren't even familiar with Tolkien wanted to see it. I can attest to that... I had never read any of the books and then I saw ONE trailer for the movie and I was like, "MUST READ NOW."

 

[Monsieur Xavier]

LOTR (movies or not) is more well known than Dune. There is no doubt about that.

 

[:eek:]

No way Dune is as well known as Lord of the Rings. LotR are among the best selling books of all times, any category, not just fantasy. According to Wikipedia it has sold around 150 million copies. Dune has sold around 20 million copies. Chances are if you ask anyone on the street they will know what Lord of the Rings is even if they haven't read the books or watched the movies. But ask anyone if they know what Dune is they probably won't know, unless they just happen to be huge fans of science-fiction.

Even stuff like Hunger Games and Gone Girl has sold more copies than Dune.

 

[Deck Rickard]

Ah, okay. Yeah, I should have looked up the sales numbers of the books. Though it would be interested to see how much the sales of LOTR spiked after the movies. But even with that bump, I'm sure they were still much higher than Dune's.

 

[David H.]

.

“press A to start”

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They didn't shoot them back to back, but the second movie is being written right now and could film in 2021. Assuming this first movie doesn't bomb and lose them millions.
Carried over the image to this page, so people don't miss it.

That's my worry. That we won't get the full story, because well... I don't expect this to be a big success, much like 2049. But at least there, while he wants to make a sequel and I'd love to see it, he told a complete story. Here, if it really is only part of the original novel and it would really suck to not finish at least that story. And if I am honest, while I am a big fan of both Villeneuve and Dune, I expect this to not do well at the box office.

 

[Lilbaz]

Think it will do better than bladerunner 2049. It's a space opera with big battles. Will it make enough for a sequel? I really hope so.

 

[Breogan]

official font/titles for the film from the warner bros panel in france earlier today.

I like it!

 

[Schlosser85]

I think a point of concern, besides Villeneuve's always slow-paced, kind of dry and solemn tone, is that stuff like Star Wars and The Lord of the Rings are more straightforward, heroic stories than Dune. Dune isn't a conventional "good guys and bad guys" story. I mean, yes there's villains, but Paul himself ends up basically being a megalomaniac Emperor who turns into a sandworm and was deliberately written by Herbert as a subversion of the "heroic Chosen One" trope and a cautionary tale about putting all your faith in cultish adulation of charismatic/inspirational messianic figures. It's kind of like if Star Wars built up Luke Skywalker as the last great hope who's gonna restore the Jedi Order, and then he turns into Emperor 2.0. It's weird and unconventional and not conventionally heroic, at least not as the story goes along.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Think it will do better than bladerunner 2049. It's a space opera with big battles. Will it make enough for a sequel? I really hope so.

In the potential sequel? Yes. But outside of the sacking of Arrakeen, I can't think of any big "battles" early on, and that isn't really a battle. This film should be a lot more palace intrigue, with a few fun action set pieces. More depending on how much time they spend with the Fremen.

 

[Schlosser85]

In the potential sequel? Yes. But outside of the sacking of Arrakeen, I can't think of any big "battles" early on, and that isn't really a battle. This film should be a lot more palace intrigue, with a few fun action set pieces. More depending on how much time they spend with the Freman.

Yea, Dune is very.....not Star Wars. It's not an action-heavy story.

 

[OfficerK]

The supposed leaked script has quite a bit of action in it though (if you believe it). There's a section about the raid on giedi prime by the atreides, which was mentioned in passing during the book but is apparently going to be in the film. This is the expanded backstory the legendary ceo guy was talking about. So it's a way to slip a battle into the film early on. Blade runner in general is a hard sell to audiences. And considering the nature of the film it did pretty well in europe, it only stumbled in the US. And it didn't help that it had a massive budget, and marketing. Those short films released before the movie came out probably cost a lot of money to produce.

Denis also talked about doing another blade runner film so long as it's not a direct sequel. And I think if he actually tried to do it, he could get the money to do so. Probably wouldn't have the budget of BR2049. But hey since they won't have to pay gosling or harrison (he probably cost a lot) that frees up some money.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yea, Dune is very.....not Star Wars. It's not an action-heavy story.

Exactly. Lucas stole so much from Dune, but what he took he turned into a big ole Buck Rodgers action adventure, by way of Kurosawa. Dune is so cerebral. Which is why Villeneuve wanted to do this in the first place. That is what he enjoys. But if you are expecting Star Wars, or really anything approximating that, you will be in for a rude awakening. Which is a big part of my fear. I think we are going to end up with those 2049 trailers. Promising one thing, while the reality of the film is something very different. Which I fear not going over all that well.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The supposed leaked script has quite a bit of action in it though (if you believe it). There's a section about the raid on giedi prime by the atreides, which was mentioned in passing during the book but is apparently going to be in the film. This is the expanded backstory the legendary ceo guy was talking about. So it's a way to slip a battle into the film early on. Blade runner in general is a hard sell to audiences. And considering the nature of the film it did pretty well in europe, it only stumbled in the US. And it didn't help that it had a massive budget, and marketing. Those short films released before the movie came out probably cost a lot of money to produce.

Denis also talked about doing another blade runner film so long as it's not a direct sequel. And I think if he actually tried to do it, he could get the money to do so. Probably wouldn't have the budget of BR2049. But hey since they won't have to pay gosling or harrison (he probably cost a lot) that frees up some money.

If they are doing Dune properly, the budget for this film should at least be at the level of 2049. Probably more. Which is a bit of an issue, because that means this movie is going to have to clear 500m, for any shot at a sequel. And even doing okay in Europe, 2049 only got halfway there.

But if the studio wants to burn money on sequel even if this one doesn't do that well, I will be very happy. I want to see it. I am just worried we won't.

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

It's a clear possibility that this won't make a lot of money, but I do think it will perform clearly better than BR2049 since, while it certainly isn't a film for the masses, it had terrible marketing. Better marketing and probably a property that's still at least slightly more mass appealing than BR points upwards, but whether it's enough to not lose money on what's likely a pretty big budget film is a tough question.

 

[OfficerK]

BR2049s marketing revolved around nostalgia for a cult film that underperformed back when it came out. Alcon hugely over estimated the size of the BR fanbase. And it didn't help that they didn't even reveal the movie was about a replicant Gosling. Even though it was revealed in the first five minutes of the film. The trailers and marketing never gave it away. If Dune follows that close to the vest marketing....might not be a good idea.

 

[MadVillainy]

BR2049s marketing revolved around nostalgia for a cult film that underperformed back when it came out. Alcon hugely over estimated the size of the BR fanbase. And it didn't help that they didn't even reveal the movie was about a replicant Gosling. Even though it was revealed in the first five minutes of the film. The trailers and marketing never gave it away. If Dune follows that close to the vest marketing....might not be a good idea.

I thought that was great that they didn't reveal it.
I don't think that would've helped the marketing

"Ooooo a replicant. NOw I want to see it".
I don't think that would've mattered.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Every cent they spend on marketing here, will be added to the cost. I am confused about the complaining about the 2049 marketing outside of pitching an action flick, where there was none. All 2049 had going for it was that it was a sequel. Why it was doomed to not be successful. I am just happy they didn't realize that until after they released it.

Dune is going to be marketed on it's source material. Which again, isn't that big of a draw.

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

Every cent they spend on marketing here, will be added to the cost. I am confused about the complaining about the 2049 marketing outside of pitching an action flick, where there was none. All 2049 had going for it was that it was a sequel. Why it was doomed to not be successful. I am just happy they didn't realize that until after they released it.

Dune is going to be marketed on it's source material. Which again, isn't that big of a draw.

BR2049's has been brought up plenty of time in the business as an example of bad marketing, where people didn't even get a grasp of what the film was about. That's not to say that marketing could have turned into a hit, before anyone decides to bring out a straw man. And of course marketing adds to the cost, how could one avoid that? Marketing is absolutely necessary though, which is true for everything from unknown properties to mega franchises.

 

[Marvolo]

They didn't shoot them back to back, but the second movie is being written right now and could film in 2021. Assuming this first movie doesn't bomb and lose them millions.
Carried over the image to this page, so people don't miss it.

If they werent committed to shooting both back to back from the start they had no business splitting the story in two. Not after what happened with Blade Runner 2049.

Yes, Dune is a foundational scifi book, but its niche as hell these days
Its heady and weird. Kids today are not dying for a Dune film or a revival. At most the 20 and younger audience knows only Lynch's awful film and that's going to bias them against this. Denise Villeneuve is not a house hold name, and his last film was a 165 minute slooooowwwww burn, and his other films are also pretty slow, so his name is not going to be exciting the young or general audience.

The reaction and turnout could completely astound, but frankly I think this wont make more than $500 million. And I think the budget and marketing costs will eat most of the box office up and it might not even break even.

Long story short, we're probably going to be stuck with only part 1 and half a story.