Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[flickchick85]

I too am a bit baffled with allegiance to movie studios. Obviously, Marvel's a little different than the others, but most movie studios themselves are just executives who hire creatives. And the creatives are the ones who determine whether a movie will be good or not. As such, the creative output of each studio is wildly inconsistent and the projects are generally completely unconnected to each other - they can be good, can be bad, depending on the writing/directing/production team behind it.

Marvel Studios is a little different just because every film they make IS connected to the others, and therefore the producers are little more integral to the overall brand of the studio. So loyalty/dislike of Marvel Studios makes more sense to me than with WB, Fox, etc. The more apt comparison to them would be Marvel's parent company, Disney. And they've had just as much inconsistency as everyone else.

 

[Flint Marko]

Hmmmm. I'm going to say 500 million, give or take.
That might be a bit ambitious of a prediction, but I could see it happening.

I too am a bit baffled with allegiance to movie studios. Obviously, Marvel's a little different than the others, but most movie studios themselves are just executives who hire creatives. And the creatives are the ones who determine whether a movie will be good or not. As such, the creative output of each studio is wildly inconsistent and the projects are generally completely unconnected to each other - they can be good, can be bad, depending on the writing/directing/production team behind it.

Marvel Studios is a little different just because every film they make IS connected to the others, and therefore the producers are little more integral to the overall brand of the studio. So loyalty/dislike of Marvel Studios makes more sense to me than with WB, Fox, etc. The more apt comparison to them would be Marvel's parent company, Disney. And they've had just as much inconsistency as everyone else.

I'm a Marvel Studios loyalist simply because I've enjoyed 100% of their film output so far. I'm sure at some point they'll let me down, but for the time being I'd consider myself a fan.

 

[Docker2.0]

I haven't really heard of any boycott until Fox tried to make the F4 movies. I haven't heard anyone say boycott Sony or WB. I think most comic fans are pissed at their desperation to hold on to the rights by throwing crap against the walls and calling it a hit because let's be real, nothing about this F4 movie sounds good and reeks of desperation.

 

[lozzy.94]

I know its a long shot, but what do you think are the possibilities of this movie being the highest grossing CBM of the year?

 

[ctsketch]

I think the film will do well. but it won't be doing X-men, TASM or TWS numbers

 

[The Endless]

Naaa... i think 600 million is the ceiling. But i'm betting around 500 million.

 

[747]

What do you all think is the minimum for getting a sequel?

 

[The Endless]

400 million i'd say.

 

[Flint Marko]

What's funny is that the idea of a sequel hadn't even crossed my mind yet. I've just been so thrilled we're getting a GoTG movie in the first place.

 

[Tony Stark]

I have a sneaking suspicion that GOTG could be the surprise hit of the summer. The box office of most films this summer has been 'meh'. TF will probably be the 1B film of the summer, but even that is not doing as well as the other TF films.

I'm not suggesting that GOTG will be a massive blockbuster, or the biggest film of the summer, but .....

1.) I think GOTG will smash the August opening weekend record (currently held by Bourne Ultimatum)

2.) I think the film will have good legs, perhaps a 3x multiplier, as it simply looks better than any film we've seen this summer (folks love eye candy)

3.) Rocket Raccoon is going to become a cultural icon. He will be what sells the film.


In short, it's not that this is going to be some huge massive success, but it's going to look like it, because everything else has been so mediocre to this point. CA:TWS and the Lego Movie remain far more popular than anything put out this summer.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Based on what I saw, it's possible that this is the first MCU film that critics and fanbloggers will recommend seeing in 3D and IMAX3D. That should help a bit.

 

[TheVileOne]

http://www.thewrap.com/guardians-of-the-galaxy-tracking-for-60-million-opening/

The Wrap says its tracking for a $60 million opening. Before anyone loses it, that's a tracking number. Tracking numbers are sometimes very off going both ways.

 

[Suzanne78]

http://www.thewrap.com/guardians-of-the-galaxy-tracking-for-60-million-opening/

The Wrap says its tracking for a $60 million opening. Before anyone loses it, that's a tracking number. Tracking numbers are sometimes very off going both ways.

Also, it's three weeks out. That's actually pretty strong, and I'd say $60 million (to $65million) is probably the floor right now.

I'm starting to think we'll probably crack $75 million by the time Aug. 1st rolls around.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

$60m for August for a new property is a strong numbers, that should theoretically go up.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

http://www.thewrap.com/guardians-of-the-galaxy-tracking-for-60-million-opening/

The Wrap says its tracking for a $60 million opening. Before anyone loses it, that's a tracking number. Tracking numbers are sometimes very off going both ways.

That's actually great news. 60+ is like Thor 1/Cap 1 numbers, which is great for a property that's of even lesser reknown than those two. But recent Marvel Studios films tend to open around 10 million higher than initial estimates, so that 60 could easily become 70 when it's all said and done. And if it opens in the higher range, we could be talking 80-90, which would just be plain nuts.

 

[MarvelU]

Anybody know the budget for this film? By the looks of the set pieces and the special effects, I think about 150-180 for budget.

 

[LEOZZTT]

Anybody know the budget for this film? By the looks of the set pieces and the special effects, I think about 150-180 for budget.

$170 million. You got it right.

 

[doink]

That's actually great news. 60+ is like Thor 1/Cap 1 numbers, which is great for a property that's of even lesser reknown than those two. But recent Marvel Studios films tend to open around 10 million higher than initial estimates, so that 60 could easily become 70 when it's all said and done. And if it opens in the higher range, we could be talking 80-90, which would just be plain nuts.

I'd expected it would probably reach Thor numbers at the very least, so I'm pretty pleased with that tracking...though I hope it'll end up opening even higher than that.

 

[DarkKnight88]

No way this gets as high as 70 M. 60 M is the ceiling. Anywhere from 40 - 50 M is probably more the range we're looking at.

Don't over-predict like Pacific Rim last summer.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

No way this gets as high as 70 M. 60 M is the ceiling. Anywhere from 40 - 50 M is probably more the range we're looking at.

Don't over-predict like Pacific Rim last summer.

The 70 million figure is based on how recent Marvel Studios films behaved, which is opening at least 10 million higher than initial tracking (which as of now stands at around 60 million). An opening at around 40-50 million like you suggest would mean that the films underperforms even from initial tracking, which quite frankly would be highly improbable for Marvel Studios films.

You brought up Pacific Rim, yet initial tracking had that at around 30 million, and it eventually opened at around 37 million.

 

[TeeKay]

No way this gets as high as 70 M. 60 M is the ceiling. Anywhere from 40 - 50 M is probably more the range we're looking at.

Don't over-predict like Pacific Rim last summer.

Don't be so sure.

 

[doink]

No way this gets as high as 70 M. 60 M is the ceiling. Anywhere from 40 - 50 M is probably more the range we're looking at.

Don't over-predict like Pacific Rim last summer.

Except that according to a reporter at The Wrap some people are saying it could go as high as 70M or even 80M.

And like Saitou Hajime says, Pacific Rim's tracking numbers were low to begin with.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Any film that's projecting to.180-190 dom has a shot at 70+ ow. 40m sounds like (negative) wishful thinking.

 

[Tymminator]

I've heard/read a few reactions from a few poeple lucky enough to screen it and its coming back pretty positive. I'll go as far to say Tee-kay's was the most "negative" I've run across and his review is very much not a negative review at all. I hope it does well.

If this goes well, Nova/Nova Corps, Warlock and Captain Marvel will become MCU-cosmic aspects we will get to see sooner rather than later. Seriously, it might even give WB the nerve to give GL another try when they see Space-cosmic superhero stories can work. A lot of good can come from this.

 

[TeeKay]

My review wasn't negative. I actually liked the film but had a few gripes. I'd say nit picks more than they are flaws. I did say in my last paragraph..

I'll go see it again for sure. Had a great time really. I just hope they touch up on some CGI towards the end of the film. I won't give a score now because I'm not sure whether I saw the final cut or rough cut. I should say that I'm no big fan of the GOTG. The film does succeed in opening up the cosmic world of the MCU far more than Thor did in his own 2 films. I just wish the film was a tad bit longer. They gave James Gunn full creative freedom here, he got away with a lot of things in this film lol You'll see. The film does plant seeds for Avengers 3. I'm sure there are a lot of Easter Eggs that fans of teh lore will pick up when they see the film, I don't know anything so I can't really say. They didn't show the post credits scene. In closing, I'm gonna say the film is a lot of fun. I honestly don't want to give away ANY of the movie with this review because this is one film that needs every scene to be savored (and also I signed an NDA lol). Do yourself a favor and remain unspoiled. It's how I saw the movie (apart from what the trailers showed) and even though you're obviously reading this review, read no others with any kind of spoilers whatsoever. Experience the awesomeness for yourself. GOTG as a movie and as a team on screen is an unstoppable force. I'm just going to say, Rocket & Groot combination equals AWESOME and leave it at that. This movie defines MUST SEE when it comes out.