Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[lozzy.94]

You're probably right. But if this film ends up grossing like 200 to 350 million, then I'm excited to see your reactions.

The ONLY thing that is really going on for this movie is the Marvel brand/logo. I bet if this movie didn't have the Marvel brand. People would just see this as 2014's R.I.P.D. Of course there's a lot of people who has faith with Marvel Studios that they believe that everything MS will release will be an instant hit at the box-office.

I fail to see how anybody would compare this movie to R.I.P.D.

 

[Mr. Dent]

You're probably right. But if this film ends up grossing like 200 to 350 million, then I'm excited to see your reactions.

The ONLY thing that is really going on for this movie is the Marvel brand/logo. I bet if this movie didn't have the Marvel brand. People would just see this as 2014's R.I.P.D. Of course there's a lot of people who has faith with Marvel Studios that they believe that everything MS will release will be an instant hit at the box-office.

So basically even if the movie is successful you have built in excuse of "it's only because it's a Marvel movie". lol.

Not to mention there's not one iota of similarity between this an RIPD. At all.

 

[psylockolussus]

So basically even if the movie is successful you have built in excuse of "it's only because it's a Marvel movie". lol.

Not to mention there's not one iota of similarity between this an RIPD. At all.

You're right or if one of the big four has a cameo in this film and Disney heavily promotes that cameo. And Disney would probably include a tagline of "from the makers of Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Thor, Iron Man 2, Thor: The Dark World, Captain America, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Iron Man and The Avengers" in posters and trailers.

And I brought up R.i.P.D. because like GOTG, its a movie based on a comic-book.

 

[lozzy.94]

You're right or if one of the big four has a cameo in this film and Disney heavily promotes that cameo. And Disney would probably include a tagline of "from the makers of Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Thor, Iron Man 2, Thor: The Dark World, Captain America, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Iron Man and The Avengers" in posters and trailers.

And I brought up R.i.P.D. because like GOTG, its a movie based on a comic-book.

So basically by your logic any movie based off a comic book is going to flop. You obviously haven't been paying attention to box-office figures in the past couple of years.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Trust me, logic has nothing to do with his posts. Hes the Fox/X-Men equivalent of a Nolanite. In his mind this is all some kind of competition. Sad really.

 

[Hyde]

You're right or if one of the big four has a cameo in this film and Disney heavily promotes that cameo. And Disney would probably include a tagline of "from the makers of Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Thor, Iron Man 2, Thor: The Dark World, Captain America, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Iron Man and The Avengers" in posters and trailers.

And I brought up R.i.P.D. because like GOTG, its a movie based on a comic-book.

 

[psylockolussus]

Trust me, logic has nothing to do with his posts. Hes the Fox/X-Men equivalent of a Nolanite. In his mind this is all some kind of competition. Sad really.

Even if I'm not a X-Men fan, I don't see this film being a hit. Its actually sad for people who think I'm only saying that GOTG will underperform because its coming out in the same year as DOFP. LOL seriously?

So basically by your logic any movie based off a comic book is going to flop. You obviously haven't been paying attention to box-office figures in the past couple of years.

I didn't say that. But like RIPD, GOTG isn't a well-known comic-book. And with the August release date, I don't see it performing as strong as Iron Man and Thor. I see this performing like Elysium with the August release date. It could be #1 in the opening weekend, but its main competitor, "Shades of Grey" will have stronger legs at the box-office and it will outgross GOTG in the 2nd/3rd weekend.

 

[lozzy.94]

I didn't say that. But like RIPD, GOTG isn't a well-known comic-book. And with the August release date, I don't see it performing as strong as Iron Man and Thor. I see this performing like Elysium with the August release date. It could be #1 in the opening weekend, but its main competitor, "Shades of Grey" will have stronger legs at the box-office and it will outgross in the next few weeks.

RIPD didnt flop because it wasnt a well-know comic book. RIPD flopped because in the GA eyes it was just a Men in Black rip-off. Also 50 Shades is a complete different target audience, it will have no effect on GOTG box office.

 

[Micromind]

I want this movie to do well, as it's success will make WB reconsider Green Lantern movie franchise again.

But, I am not sure that it will be successful, maybe a moderate success.

Consider for a moment, the same cast, same story but WD / DC label on it, would you fans then guarantee it's success ?

 

[lozzy.94]

I want this movie to do well, as it's success will make WB reconsider Green Lantern movie franchise again.

I think WB are done with the Green Lantern franchise permanetly, even with the success of a cosmic Marvel movie.

But, I am not sure that it will be successful, maybe a moderate success.

Im also predicting a moderate success just like the first Thor and Captain America movies were. Meaning it will make back its budget plus turn a profit and a sequel will get green lit.

Consider for a moment, the same cast, same story but WD / DC label on it, would you fans then guarantee it's success ?

No, because Marvel havent fail yet while WB have.

 

[SilentWarriorZ]

Marvel is very good with their First Movie launch so its not gonna suck but I can't tell this about sequels as marvel movie suck at sequels eg IM2-3 .

 

[Micromind]

OK so, Marvel label is going to convince general audience to go and see this one ?

Then, why they did not turn up in huge numbers to see The Incredible Hulk ? Hulk is an A -List superhero property as compare to GOTG.

 

[psylockolussus]

Exactly! And GOTG won't have the Avengers effect since none of the lead characters appeared in the 2012 Avengers movie.

Some people think its gonna be a success just because its coming from Marvel.

 

[lozzy.94]

OK so, Marvel label is going to convince general audience to go and see this one ?

Then, why they did not turn up in huge numbers to see The Incredible Hulk ? Hulk is an A -List superhero property as compare to GOTG.

The Incredible Hulk was a Reboot to a critically panned movie that came out just 5 years before it. You can understand why it wasnt such a huge success.

Exactly! And GOTG won't have the Avengers effect since none of the lead characters appeared in the 2012 Avengers movie.

Some people think its gonna be a success just because its coming from Marvel.

If Marvel put "From the Studio that bought you The Avengers" on the Trailers and Posters then yes it will get an Avengers boost.

 

[Micromind]

The Incredible Hulk was a Reboot to a critically panned movie that came out just 5 years before it. You can understand why it wasnt such a huge success.

A movie folloing a less successful movie does not always do badly.

Take the case of Daniel Craig's "Quantum Of Solace" which did not do well at Box Office and yet, it's follow-up "SkyFall" is the biggest Bond movie so far making more money then TDKR.

Or less liked Iron man 2 did not stop Iron Man 3's success.

 

[psylockolussus]

If Marvel put "From the Studio that bought you The Avengers" on the Trailers and Posters then yes it will get an Avengers boost.

Well its a different kind of boost compare to the "Avengers Boost" Iron Man 3 got from The Avengers and Thor 2/Cap 2 will get from The Avengers.

 

[SilentWarriorZ]

It's quite a possibility that they might promote this movie from upcoming Thor-2 as well as cap-2 given that GOTG ultimately going to meet up with Avengers in future .

 

[lozzy.94]

A movie folloing a less successful movie does not always do badly.

Take the case of Daniel Craig's "Quantum Of Solace" which did not do well at Box Office and yet, it's follow-up "SkyFall" is the biggest Bond movie so far making more money then TDKR.

Or less liked Iron man 2 did not stop Iron Man 3's success.

those were sequels. Sequels usually do better at the box-office than the original. Reboots usually don't.

 

[Micromind]

those were sequels. Sequels usually do better at the box-office than the original. Reboots usually don't.

Man of Steel.

You cannot generalize it as there's no rule that says that reboots /sequels coming after unsuccessful movie cannot do well, if that was the case Studios wouldn't be making such movies again and again.

Coming back to GOTG, I think (hope) that will be get moderate success and WB will consider (some time in future) about making another GL movie.

 

[lozzy.94]

Man of Steel.

You cannot generalize it as there's no rule that says that reboots /sequels coming after unsuccessful movie cannot do well, if that was the case Studios wouldn't be making such movies again and again.

Coming back to GOTG, I think (hope) that will be get moderate success and WB will consider (some time in future) about making another GL movie.

I said reboots usually dont do better than the previous film, you listed one movie.

 

[Moridin]

OK so, Marvel label is going to convince general audience to go and see this one ?

Then, why they did not turn up in huge numbers to see The Incredible Hulk ? Hulk is an A -List superhero property as compare to GOTG.

Well:
- TIH came out 5 years after the tepidly received HULK.
- TIH itself wasn't received much better than HULK.
- TIH was poorly marketed.
- TIH came out 4 years before the general audience had any idea of The Avengers, there was no Marvel brand.

GotG is in a far better place from a marketing standpoint than TIH, Thor, CA & IM1 were, and Yes, that's because of the Marvel brand.

"From the studio that brought you The Avengers" on some great trailers & other promo material will, if the film is good, ensure enough asses in seats for it to be successful. Same goes for Ant Man.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

It could be #1 in the opening weekend, but its main competitor, "Shades of Grey" will have stronger legs at the box-office and it will outgross GOTG in the 2nd/3rd weekend.

I seriously doubt that FSoG is going to have stronger legs than GotG. At best it's going to have a strong opening day then plummet spectacularly on its second weekend and beyond.

 

[psylockolussus]

Comedy film We're the Millers had very stronger legs this August. It opened with less than 30 million in its opening weekend, despite not opening at #1, it already outgrossed Elysium and soon it will outgross The Wolverine. Then drama film, The Butler is also having strong legs for the past few weeks.

The thing is, people would get tired of action films by the end of July and August and they would watch non-action films like Fifty Shades of Grey. And for a chick-flick, 50 Shades of Grey is already buzzing 1 year before its release. Its currently in IMDb's top ten most viewed pages.

 

[flickchick85]

While I have a lot more faith in this film's box office performance than psylockolussus does, I do agree that the August release date will probably work against it. There is a blockbuster fatigue that seems to set in around that time.

 

[BigThor]

I voted for 500 million, but I can this doing around MOS numbers which is the 650 million range.