Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

[The Endless]

A smash hit at the box office should be over more than 700million. Imo.

Your opinion is wrong then. You have to take into account the nature of the film, the budget, the release date, if it breaks records or not.

The Sixth Sense is the highest grossing film in August. It made like 660 million. It's a smash hit. It broke records.

The OW record for August is Bourne Ultimatum with 69 million. Guardians will most likely beat that by quite a margin.

The OW record for May is 210 million from Avengers. It went on to make 1.5 billion World Wide.

Just look at the gulf between the records. It says it all.

 

[Suzanne78]

If I watch GOTG and absolutely love it, I'll have zero problem with it outgrossing CATWS, a movie that I basically want to marry and have all of its babies.

But yeah, this year's been a strange one. A high number of quality blockbusters, yet none have really broken out to have that epic B.O. run like IM3 or Avengers or TDK had. I do take some comfort in the fact that CATWS is the top domestic grosser and is second for now to DOFP WW. Although it's a matter of time to see if/when TF4 will overtake both of them WW. Which… UGH!!

But yeah, it is very strange that the negatives and expectations of some toward this movie are also not being considered toward why the B.O. for Guardians can be smaller than other movies and still have it be a success. Don't even get me started on people downplaying CATWS' April success. That movie did great. Not just commercially, and WW, but also critically. April, the whole month, was never really a proven ground for blockbusters and both Cap (and FF) have opened up the movie seasons big time.

TalismanRing's numbers are sensible and spot on. I want more, but I'll be happy with $400-$450mil.

I love how goalposts shift closer to release dates

 

[The Endless]

Realistically, what are the odds of this hitting $500 million worldwide? That's the benchmark which you could point to and say "this was an undeniable home run". 400 is still good no doubt and I'd be happy with that, I just admittedly don't know enough to gauge how possible 500 would be. What type of legs would this need to make that sort of thing possible?

If it does around 200 million OW world wide then i can see it going over 500 million.

 

[TalismanRing]

A smash hit at the box office should be over more than 700million. Imo.

Why not $800 or 900m or 1B? The first Hunger Games, the first 3 Twilights, all the Mission Impossibles - all under $700m - none a smash hit. $700m seems such an arbitrary number. Hmmm, maybe because if it was $800m then DOFP wouldn't qualify.

 

[The Endless]

Why not $800 or 900m or 1B? The first Hunger Games, the first 3 Twilights, all the Mission Impossibles - all under $700m - none a smash hit. $700m seems such an arbitrary number. Hmmm, maybe because if it was $800m then DOFP wouldn't qualify.

That is what all this is about really.

 

[Zarex]

A smash hit at the box office should be over more than 700million. Imo.

So with just one smash hit in seven attempts, would you consider the X-Men franchise to be a disappointment at the box office? It certainly looks like it in comparison to the results from Sony, Marvel and Warner Brothers.

 

[psylockolussus]

Your opinion is wrong then. You have to take into account the nature of the film, the budget, the release date, if it breaks records or not.

The Sixth Sense is the highest grossing film in August. It made like 660 million. It's a smash hit. It broke records.

The OW record for August is Bourne Ultimatum with 69 million. Guardians will most likely beat that by quite a margin.

The OW record for May is 210 million from Avengers. It went on to make 1.5 billion World Wide.

Just look at the gulf between the records. It says it all.

Are you done hammerring me? Because I dont appreciate you asking me what kind of mentallity i have. Im acting civil here.

 

[Suzanne78]

A smash hit at the box office should be over more than 700million. Imo.

So TASM2, Cap 2, Trans4mers are all smash hits?

You're also not considering production costs, ticket attrition, and other things though.

By all metrics, I do think Cap 2 and DoFP fit within successful hits category.

TASM2 struggled to pull through $200mil dom, a significant decrease for the franchise since SM1. Not only that, but ticket sales here will fail to meet the production costs for the movie. TF4 will also see a decline; these latter movies needed overseas grosses to save face; their ticket sales are massively declining in the US.

So, I don't think simply drawing a line at $700mil. is actually sound when defining box office breakouts.

ETA: what others above have already said

 

[psylockolussus]

So with just one smash hit in seven attempts, would you consider the X-Men franchise to be a disappointment at the box office? It certainly looks like it in comparison to the results from Sony, Marvel and Warner Brothers.

No. But They all had decent success.

 

[Tymminator]

If I watch GOTG and absolutely love it, I'll have zero problem with it outgrossing CATWS, a movie that I basically want to marry and have all of its babies.

But yeah, this year's been a strange one. A high number of quality blockbusters, yet none have really broken out to have that epic B.O. run like IM3 or Avengers or TDK had. I do take some comfort in the fact that CATWS is the top domestic grosser and is second for now to DOFP WW. Although it's a matter of time to see if/when TF4 will overtake both of them WW. Which… UGH!!

But yeah, it is very strange that the negatives and expectations of some toward this movie are also not being considered toward why the B.O. for Guardians can be smaller than other movies and still have it be a success. Don't even get me started on people downplaying CATWS' April success. That movie did great. Not just commercially, and WW, but also critically. April, the whole month, was never really a proven ground for blockbusters and both Cap (and FF) have opened up the movie seasons big time.

TalismanRing's numbers are sensible and spot on. I want more, but I'll be happy with $400-$450mil.

I love how goalposts shift closer to release dates

 

[psylockolussus]

So TASM2, Cap 2, Trans4mers are all smash hits?

You're also not considering production costs, ticket attrition, and other things though.

By all metrics, I do think Cap 2 and DoFP fit within successful hits category.

TASM2 struggled to pull through $200mil dom, a significant decrease for the franchise since SM1. Not only that, but ticket sales here will fail to meet the production costs for the movie. TF4 will also see a decline; these latter movies needed overseas grosses to save face; their ticket sales are massively declining in the US.

So, I don't think simply drawing a line at $700mil. is actually sound when defining box office breakouts.

ETA: what others above have already said

there are other factors but crossing the 700 mllion mark is a criteria I ffeel like its a smash hit territory in today's box office, I wouldnt call Tasm2 a smash since it earned less than Tasm1.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Well we can all agree that TWS was a "smash hit". That's a relief.

For this film, I think anything above $500 million must be considered a major success. Anything over $600 million immediately moves the GotG sequel into potential $1 billion territory, given all the factors. That really expands the possibilities for Marvel. It proves that almost any property, with the right director, can be succesfully adapted. And that a post RDJ/Avengers future isn't something to fear - quite the contrary.

But ill wait for opening weekend #s before I do my happy dance.

 

[Moridin]

Did a FF movie open at the beginning of April though? Didn't one open just the week before Thor in 2011? I guess what I was thinking was how CATWS took the entire month of April. But yeah, I stand corrected

FF4 opened 3rd of April and did $155m US/ $363m WW, which was hardly enough to change peoples minds about April.

Fast 5 opened on the second last day of April 2011 and did $209m US/ $626m WW. So it made most of it's money in May.

 

[Hyde]

A 'smash hit' is dependant on the movie. If, say, a movie with a budget of $50M earns $450M worldwide then it is definitely a smash hit. If a massive blockbuster with a total (marketing, expenses etc) budget of $450M earns $700M worldwide, is it really a smash hit?

Of course, there are exceptions. Earning $2B makes a movie a smash hit regardless of its budget. TWS' was a big Marvel movie but it was more of an intelligent political thriller, something which the general audience doesn't automatically lean towards. Its expectations were in the $500-600M range and it blasted past those and ended up earning $700M+ on a budget of less than $200M. It would definitely call that a smash hit.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Everyone would call that a smash hit. It was likely the most profitable of the SHM's of 2014 (so far). Pre-DVD/BR anyway. The budget was 170m I believe.

 

[Moridin]

I'm upping my prediction to $210m US/ $550m WW.

 

[Suzanne78]

If anyone's worried about the potential for this to breakout… right now Zoe, Chris, Kevin F., Dave, and James G. are doing an #AsktheGuardians twitter chat, and it's the top trend in the US.

Not too shabby for a bunch of a-holes.

 

[MarvelU]

I think $500 - $600 million is very good for this first time Marvel Space adventure with all new characters. If it does more than $600 then it will be great.

 

[Flint Marko]

I'm gonna throw a parade if it passes 500 million. You're all invited.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm gonna throw a parade if it passes 500 million. You're all invited.

 

[flickchick85]

$500M is my magic number for this movie. If it crosses that worldwide, I'll be very happy, as I suspect Marvel would be, too, since it would be their biggest new IP launch since Iron Man.

 

[Silver Surfer]

If this movie reaches 500 mil, (Which I think it will), Marvel will become the most powerful brand in the business. If they can take a comic book so obscure that half the regular readers know next to nothing about it and turn it into a half billion grosser, there's nothing they can't do in this business.

 

[The Endless]

Yea but if it doesn't hit 700 million it's only a modest success!

 

[fixxxer]

Here's how I see it:

$400 mill - Not a figure Marvel will be especially thrilled at, but can live with it.
$450 mill - A good result. That sequel we just greenlit is more than justified.
$500 mill - A resounding success, absurd interpretations of the word "smash" notwithstanding.
$550 mill - Marvel magic! We did it again.
$600 mill and up - Amazing. We're so good we could make a financially viable Squirrel Girl franchise.

 

[antonydelfini]

The reviews are too good. From a 450mil prediction before the reviews, I am now predicting 550mil. 200 domestic, 350 international.