Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You keep telling yourself that. I'm going to look at reality though.

 

[mclay18]

Everyone seems to say that the worst thing about this movie is the writing. Get writers who have experience in the sci-fi genre, and have them write the sequel as a space opera about intergalactic peacekeepers.

Michael Goldenberg's had previous experience with the sci-fi genre (Contact), as well as big-budget films like Peter Pan (2003) and Harry Potter 5. The problem is that he was brought in by Geoff Johns to do rewrites during pre-production, when they were building sets and storyboarding. So there wasn't that much for him to remedy in that period of time.

That said, I don't know if GL would've been a better movie if Goldenberg had time to completely overhaul the script.

 

[Tony Stark]

Looks like 20M for Friday. Could have been worse, but could have been much better, especially calculating 3D. Pretty much right where XFC was a couple of weeks ago.

 

[chiefchirpa]

$60+ million, but legs are going to be significantly cut short. Going about for 2nd "Cars 2" week will be ordeal, 3rd week against Transformers 3 will be hardship.

 

[EliteF50]

I estimate $170-200 million before it comes out in the rest of the world. In the end, it'll make around $300 million.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Im hearing Green Lantern made 24 million today and add the 3M from yesterday. So 27M so far isn't bad. Fathers day is Sunday and usually films released on fathers day weekend do well so they should get a boost so Im going to stick to my 60M overall weekend.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think it's gonna make around 55+ mil this weekend but come next week this movie will fall flat on it's face. With Cars 2 coming out next week and TF the week after, GL will be overwhelmed by it's competition. Horrible reviews and bad word of mouth isn't going to help either, I would be surprised if this movie reaches 150 mil domestic.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think its 20 million with the midnight screenings thrown in, almost 24.
The screenings made almost 4 million.

 

[The Morningstar]

People hoping for a sequel to fix the problems in this one...

Who says the sequel will fix the problems? It has the same screen writers doing it.

And clearly, WB are more focused on selling a product, rather than make a movie. I don't see a sequel improve on anything. If this movie makes money, all that says to WB is that people accept mediocrity. If people accept mediocrity... why aspire to rise above that?

 

[jmc]

Deadline now saying closer to $22 million.

 

[Timstuff]

What I want to know is where this Greg Berlanti guy even came from, and why he went from being a nobody to being entrusted with not only writing Green Lantern but Flash as well. What did some Warner Bros. exec see in this guy that made him suddenly say "This guy is the new talent of the century! I want him on ever big budget project we can put him in, ASAP!" It's like giving someone the keys to the Camaro before they've even brought back the Mustang, or betting everything on a horse that hasn't even run a race yet.

My skepticism towards Berlanti's description of Flash as "Silence of the Lambs meets The Matrix" now seems all the more justified. He took Green Lantern, which should have been serious, and made it too goofy, and he wants to take Flash, which should be at least a little goofy, and make it dead serious. The guy clearly is in over his head, and yet somewhere I bet a WB exec is patting him on the back and saying "Don't worry, you're doing just fine. You'll get the hang of it in no time!" It's like the Wachowski brothers all over again, but at least the Wachowski Bros. made a hit movie before Warner Bros. started bending over backwards to accommodate them. Berlanti is just some schmo they suddenly decided should be world class screenplay writer, and I haven't a clue as to what made them decide that.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

22mil is a pretty lame( but not disasterous) ass number when you factor in the 3D prices. Barring some miracle the movie is headed for a 55 to 60mil opening weekend. I'm thinking closer to 55mil really. Thats going to mean less tickets sold than both Thor and First Class.

It's interesting that none of the comicbook movies have super over preformed. Yes, 3D aided Thor did well for itself and will be getting a sequel but it, First Class and more likely than not GL will not gross 200mil domestically. Even with the huge 3D surcharges and higher ticket prices over the years.

Only the Batman, X-Men, Spider-Man and Iron Man series have done over 200mil, plus Superman Returns has. (Fantastic Four might be above that number with inflation) With the exception of Iron Man (who was a high B-list before the movie) all those characters are the big A-list.

I think those facts tell us that spending a ridiculous amount of money on these characters is a big risk, especially if your movie isn't up to snuff. Comicbook characters aren't the automatic cash cow that Hollywood thinks they are.

Captain America looks excellent so far so maybe it will break out domestically. We will have to wait and see.

 

[The Morningstar]

Captain America will make 200 million US quite comfortably I imagine. Maybe even closer to 250.

It needs to though, I don't see it doing that well internationally.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm going to wait for reviews and other factors before I seriously begin predicting C.A. Especially after none of the other comicbook movies reached or will reach that milestone...not even the ones with 3D surcharges.

And yes, I realize I'm breaking my rule about condeming a movie's boxoffice after only having it's opening day numbers. That could bite me in the ass and if it does I'll say something.

 

[LadyVader]

Captain America will make 200 million US quite comfortably I imagine. Maybe even closer to 250.

It needs to though, I don't see it doing that well internationally.

If it won't do well internationally it's because it's a superhero movie, not because it's Captain America. People don't want to hate the US, not where I'm from anyway. If Captain America stays away from "America, **** YEAH!" type of stuff and focuses solely on him as a unique, driven individual, it will be well received.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm sorry but I don't think the international audience will not embrace a good action film just because they don't love America.

The lack of really big stars could hurt it but thats it.

 

[LadyVader]

I'm sorry but I don't think the international audience will not embrace a good action film just because they don't love America.

The lack of really big stars could hurt it but thats it.

You know what the highest grossing film for 2010 was in my country?
Percy Jackson and the Lightening Thief, and I'm pretty sure it didn't have any big stars. Unless it's Johnny Depp, international audiences don't really care about casting. In fact, I think Hugo Weaving might be perceived as a bigger star here than he is in the States.

 

[jmc]

Captain America is being called First Avenger outside the US.

 

[cryptic name]

Captain America is being called First Avenger outside the US.

not everywhere, just a few territories.

 

[LadyVader]

Captain America is being called First Avenger outside the US.

I see it listed as: Căpitanul America: Primul Răzbunător

So it's Captain America - The First Avenger. Which people are gonna go see, because if you say just "Primul Razbunator" in romanian that actually sounds more like "The First Punisher" so people would be like: "WHAT! Another Punisher movie!?"

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not saying that C.A wil do 400mil internationally or anything but I wouldn't be surprised with 175 to 225mil.

 

[dark_b]

my friend said that he is not interested in CA because its not set in modern time. i wanted to punch him.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Now thats what could hurt the film. Alot of young people aren't interesting in period peices. It's dumb but true.

 

[cryptic name]

^Now thats what could hurt the film. Alot of young people aren't interesting in period peices. It's dumb but true.

I think Raiders of the Lost Ark faced the same kind of obstacle. Word of mouth should help if the flick is good.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

But this isn't the 1980's, people's movie choices are more ******ed now.