Justice League Box Office Prediction

[odilonredon]

I still think people are overestimating this film grossly, underplaying competition and flat out ignoring trends in movie sequel history. And anyone who thinks Ragnarok isn't going to affect things after the reaction that trailer got is sticking their head in the sand.

of course they're overestimating.

unless future justice league promotional material starts catching on in a way like the thor 3 trailer has, and i doubt that, this will be lucky to do as well as bvs numbers.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Quality is not irrelevant when it comes to box office discussions. If quality were irrelevant then BvS would have made over a billion dollars.

 

[Iceman]

Ragnarok is even more of a contender after that recent trailer. For every 2 people who were slightly put off by its weirdness there are 8 who are now much more excited for it than they were before the trailer. #official facts t:

 

[Zero_Effect]

What is Snyder bouncing back to though? Lukewarm reception?



I don't see any way Snyder is coming back after JL, no matter how well it does.

DC are now signing folks like Reeves & Whedon (and Vaughn? was that just a rumour?) who have both critical acclaim & huge box office success.

Why continue to roll the dice on Snyder when 3/7 of his films have lost millions, and another 2 have left 10's if not 100's of millions on the table?

Studios like the known as apposed to the unknown. Its why Michael Bay is still directing Transformers movies despite most people hating them. He makes them money so why mess with that when critical reception is a distant second to making $$$. None of Snyders DC movies have lost money so if he gets most people back on board with Justice League then i can see the studio wanting him back.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Snyder's DC films have been nowhere near as successful as the Transformers films. WB are keeping him on board because it's being run by idiots. When the current inept guard is kicked to the curb Snyder will be toast.

 

[Goonie]

Also keep in mind that you have trailers like Ragnarok & It breaking records while Justice League has not broke any records so they do have more viewership

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

IFifty Shades Darker broke Star Wars trailer record as well.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Snyder's DC films have been nowhere near as successful as the Transformers films. WB are keeping him on board because it's being run by idiots. When the current inept guard is kicked to the curb Snyder will be toast.

 

[odilonredon]

it's my opinion too

 

[Zero_Effect]

Also keep in mind that you have trailers like Ragnarok & It breaking records while Justice League has not broke any records so they do have more viewership

Yeah it broke records because of Facebook views. Iron Man has 19M "likes", Capatin America has 16M "likes", Avengers has 14M "likes" & Thor has 13M "likes". Each linked to the Thor Trailer. DC has 13M for Batman and 7M for Superman. The Batman page linked to the Justice League trailer but Superman page did not. The Justice League movie page has 1.1M "likes" and the character page has 1.2M. So Marvel does a better job with its Facebook pages which is why its always breaking trailer records and DC seems to lag behind.

 

[Goonie]

Yeah it broke records because of Facebook views. Iron Man has 19M "likes", Capatin America has 16M "likes", Avengers has 14M "likes" & Thor has 13M "likes". Each linked to the Thor Trailer. DC has 13M for Batman and 7M for Superman. The Batman page linked to the Justice League trailer but Superman page did not. The Justice League movie page has 1.1M "likes" and the character page has 1.2M. So Marvel does a better job with its Facebook pages which is why its always breaking trailer records and DC seems to lag behind.

Explain the It trailer breaking records ? Neither Wonder Woman or Justice League broke records that says something

 

[Zero_Effect]

Explain the It trailer breaking records ?

Fifty Shades of Grey of Horror.

 

[Samurai_Adam]

And anyone who thinks Ragnarok isn't going to affect things after the reaction that trailer got is sticking their head in the sand.

1) Trailer views don't mean much in terms of box office. If so, Fifty Shades would be billion dollar films and IT would also be a billion dollar film.

2) The only way Thor would really affect JL is if the stars and planets aligned and it opened at $200m and had 50% drops each weekend. That isn't going to happen. When JL hits, Ragnarok will be pulling around $20m at the most. Hardly a threat.

 

[jokesonm3]

Quality is not irrelevant when it comes to box office discussions. If quality were irrelevant then BvS would have made over a billion dollars.

This. So much this.

Quality is a HUGE factor in discussing and predicating a film's box office folks.

 

[jmc]

1) Trailer views don't mean much in terms of box office. If so, Fifty Shades would be billion dollar films and IT would also be a billion dollar film.

2) The only way Thor would really affect JL is if the stars and planets aligned and it opened at $200m and had 50% drops each weekend. That isn't going to happen. When JL hits, Ragnarok will be pulling around $20m at the most. Hardly a threat.

And $20m is good chunk of change not going to JL. You can't make the argument it's not the same audience like some are for Coco, and even that argument is week considering Pixar appeals to everybody.

 

[writer0327]

1) The only way Thor would really affect JL is if the stars and planets aligned and it opened at $200m and had 50% drops each weekend. That isn't going to happen. When JL hits, Ragnarok will be pulling around $20m at the most. Hardly a threat.

This part.

If anything, a good showing by Thor will boost JL numbers.

 

[brandeezy89]

And $20m is good chunk of change not going to JL. You can't make the argument it's not the same audience like some are for Coco, and even that argument is week considering Pixar appeals to everybody.

You're assuming that Coco is going to be an automatic hit. You must've forgot about The Good Dinosaur

 

[mclay18]

If its a three picture deal then she is in line to get a huge increase if they green light a Wonder Woman 2.

If actors are coming off a career-making smash movie, their agents can (and should) renegotiate their contracts for more money.

Jennifer Lawrence got paid $10M when Catching Fire was greenlit, compared to her paltry-looking $500K for The Hunger Games.

If WW becomes a monster hit, Gal will be taking home a BIG payday for a WW and/or JL sequel.

 

[jmc]

You're assuming that Coco is going to be an automatic hit. You must've forgot about The Good Dinosaur

Of course, the one and only film in Pixar's illustrious history that didn't do well.

 

[FunkMiller]

I still think people are overestimating this film grossly, underplaying competition and flat out ignoring trends in movie sequel history. And anyone who thinks Ragnarok isn't going to affect things after the reaction that trailer got is sticking their head in the sand.

Currently, I still see no reason to budge from my 750 million prediction for JL's WW box office take. Competing movies, potential quality, sequel to BvS - all these things could suppress the take quite considerably. If Wonder Woman does 600 million plus, I'd be happy to revise upwards somewhat, but other than that, I just can't see any reason to go over 750 million.

 

[idiot09]

Revenge of the Sith is a good example of where the third movie bounces back from the 2nd BO and reception wise.

 

[B]

I still think people are overestimating this film grossly, underplaying competition and flat out ignoring trends in movie sequel history. And anyone who thinks Ragnarok isn't going to affect things after the reaction that trailer got is sticking their head in the sand.

Only people who are obsessed with trying to compete with MCU movies are overestimating JL. Realistically JL should be making $800m - $900m, anything above or below that range will depend on just what sort of a reaction & word of mouth it gets with the public IMO. Critical reviews & RT scores aren't relevant to these sorts of movies, or they aren't as relevant as the posters on these forums like to believe in relation to box office numbers.

Both Thor & JL were always going to have an affect on one another considering how close their release dates are to one another obviously again depending on word of mouth once people actually see them, trailer views, likes/dislikes & reactions generally are meaningless to sales.

 

[MadVillainy]

Only people who are obsessed with trying to compete with MCU movies are overestimating JL. Realistically JL should be making $800m - $900m, anything above or below that range will depend on just what sort of a reaction & word of mouth it gets with the public IMO. Critical reviews & RT scores aren't relevant to these sorts of movies, or they aren't as relevant as the posters on these forums like to believe in relation to box office numbers.

Both Thor & JL were always going to have an affect on one another considering how close their release dates are to one another obviously again depending on word of mouth once people actually see them, trailer views, likes/dislikes & reactions generally are meaningless to sales.

That's not that good at all

 

[idiot09]

That's not that good at all

I think he is right in the sense that if JL is similarly received to BvS by the audience, then a 800-900M result is likely, probably in the early 800s too.

But I do think since JL is looking like it will be more inclusive for the younger audience, and be more entertaining(more action and banter), and target different demos(those who liked WW, the ones who are fans of Ezra Miller/Jason Momoa etc), and since the cast is pretty diverse as well, JL has a few things going for it right off the bat. Hence if JL ends up being just a regular entertaining by the book movie like say 300, I think it will end up in the 900 range, or if its really taken by the audience, 1B is certainly on the cards.

Lots of ifs and buts though.

 

[jmc]

Only people who are obsessed with trying to compete with MCU movies are overestimating JL. Realistically JL should be making $800m - $900m, anything above or below that range will depend on just what sort of a reaction & word of mouth it gets with the public IMO. Critical reviews & RT scores aren't relevant to these sorts of movies, or they aren't as relevant as the posters on these forums like to believe in relation to box office numbers.

Both Thor & JL were always going to have an affect on one another considering how close their release dates are to one another obviously again depending on word of mouth once people actually see them, trailer views, likes/dislikes & reactions generally are meaningless to sales.

I actually think in this case RT will play a significant role in the success or failure of this film, especially if Thor is well received and still in theatres at the time. If Thor is getting like an 80%+ score and JL is getting sub 50% then I do believe it will cost them at the box office. We all probably agree what it should make, just given all the factors involved, given all the trends in audiences in movie going history JL kinda needs to be something that is close to universally liked to reach that number.