Justice League Box Office Prediction

[idiot09]

A insightful article by Mendelson on forbes about how JL's competition wont affect it :

As hoped, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them used the Thanksgiving holiday to maintain momentum after its opening weekend. Whatever issues I might have had about the $74.4 million debut, lower than every single Harry Potter film by quite a bit, the J.K. Rowling prequel had a terrific first couple non-holiday weekdays and then pulled out a strong hold over the holiday.

It's really good news for Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. and their new would-be franchise. And, I would argue, when you note an important variable related to Walt Disney's Star Wars films, it's really promising news for WB's big pre-Thanksgiving release for 2017, Justice League.

As you know, Zack Snyder's DC Comics superhero team-up spectacular opens Nov. 17, 2017. Warner Bros. slotted the film in this date precisely because they wanted the big pre-Thanksgiving opening weekend and then the holiday bump as the (presumably) kid-friendly superhero adventure played through into December. I always say that opening on the weekend before a holiday is as good as/better than opening over the actual holiday.


It is important to note that the various Twilight/Harry Potter/Hunger Games movies have often performed relatively well in their second weekend no matter the strength of that Thanksgiving competition. For example, Catching Fire earned a record $109 million Wed-Sun Thanksgiving weekend concurrently with Walt Disney's Frozen earning a record $93.5m Wed-Sun debut back in 2013. And the Twilight Saga sequels fell hard in weekend two even absent much Thanksgiving competition.

Point being, if it's any good, Justice League may not have to worry too much about Disney's new Pixar toon, Coco, opening next Thanksgiving. But the fact that Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held up so well even against the might of Walt Disney's Moana has to be a giant sigh of relief both for those directly involved in both of Warner Bros.' crown jewel franchises.


The only real obstacle is the fact that the David Yates fantasy is playing more to older teens and adults as opposed to children, which means that movies like Office Christmas Party will offer slight demo competition. But barring that, it's the big live-action fantasy until Rogue One during what will be its fifth weekend of release. So, you might be asking, what kind of competition will Justice League face between Pixar's animated offering and Walt Disney's Star Wars sequel.

Well... the short answer is nothing. As of this early juncture, there is absolutely nothing scheduled in the month of December prior to Star Wars: Mark Hamill Gets Dialogue's Dec. 15 release date.

You've got Justice League on Nov. 17, Disney's Coco, Fox's Murder on the Orient Express and Universal/Comcast Corp.'s Let It Snow on Thanksgiving, and then not a thing listed in wide or limited release prior to Dec. 15. You get the Star Wars movie before Christmas weekend followed by an avalanche of Christmas titles (Downsizing, Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3 and The Six Billion Dollar Man among others).

Now those first two weeks will surely have something opening by the time next December rolls around. But it is unlikely that any major studio will drop a would-be "big" movie the weekend after Thanksgiving (unless they finally understand the lesson of The Last Samurai). And it's also unlikely (but not impossible considering that Christmas traffic jam) that a studio will drop a "big" movie the weekend before Star Wars 8.

If Justice League is good, crowd-pleasing and/or gives the fans what they want in terms of bare minimum "your favorite superheroes sharing a screen together" entertainment value (see: Suicide Squad), it'll not only be able to count on a solid Thanksgiving-driven second weekend hold but also a barren desert of competition. It, Coco, and Marvel's (a presumably winding down but still potent) Thor: Ragnarok will be the absolute only games in town for a month. Fear of Star Wars Episode 8 will keep the competition at bay for Justice League and potentially let it run the tables like crazy for a solid month.

If so, that means the powers-that-be have every reason to hope that Justice League can follow a similar pattern under even better circumstances. It will be interesting to see if the box office might of Star Wars scares off competition to the point where the previous big live-action tentpole actually benefits from a wide-open playing field. For the moment, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them may well benefit from pre-Star Wars jitters. I would imagine that Justice League will be next year's recipient of that same Jedi might.

Read full article here :
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...e-great-news-for-justice-league/#6b9d56cb287a

 

[Chesterfield]

He overrates Moana's "strength" and effect.

 

[idiot09]

He overrates Moana's "strength" and effect.

Moana was a disney/pixar movie, had Dwayne Johnson in the cast, and had a RT score of 96%. Coco will probably have a similar if not lesser draw.

 

[Limonade]

A insightful article by Mendelson on forbes about how JL's competition wont affect it :



Read full article here :
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...e-great-news-for-justice-league/#6b9d56cb287a

A lot of big ifs in that article.

However, it is sound logic, understanding, and reasoning.

 

[idiot09]

A lot of big ifs in that article.

However, it is sound logic, understanding, and reasoning.

To be fair, this away from release, with so many variable factors, we all have to rely on big ifs.

 

[jmc]

For the record Moana was not a Pixar movie. But regardless, Mendelson's assessment seems to ignore history of the franchise, the director, and audiences trends. His assessment is made under the assumption that JL has already won people over.

 

[idiot09]

His assessment is made under the assumption that JL has already won people over.

Not really. Read the end part of the article again.

If Justice League is good, crowd-pleasing and/or gives the fans what they want in terms of bare minimum "your favorite superheroes sharing a screen together" entertainment value (see: Suicide Squad), it'll not only be able to count on a solid Thanksgiving-driven second weekend hold but also a barren desert of competition. It, Coco, and Marvel's (a presumably winding down but still potent) Thor: Ragnarok will be the absolute only games in town for a month. Fear of Star Wars Episode 8 will keep the competition at bay for Justice League and potentially let it run the tables like crazy for a solid month.

This is btw written by a man who gave JL a "rotten" review. Obviously how good JL is plays into how well it does. The point of this article isnt that JL will be a BO success,its about how its competition affects it.

 

[jmc]

I'm not suggesting he's biased or anything, in fact I remember him really laying into BvS severely. I just don't think he's taken into account all the factors about this film. But the thing is he's admitting that Thor, JL and Coco will essentially dominate the month before Star Wars, which means to some degree they are going to eat into each others box office takings. Although I will note he hasn't predicted a box office figure for any of the movies.

 

[odilonredon]

bvs had even less completion though so i don't think that lack of competition for jl is going to be a significant factor in this potentially making more than bvs.

 

[idiot09]

bvs had even less completion though so i don't think that lack of competition for jl is going to be a significant factor in this potentially making more than bvs.

Competition is always a big factor about how much a movie makes, and many people including me were worried about the competition which on paper looked daunting.

I just don't think he's taken into account all the factors about this film.

He is not predicting the BO outcome. He is analysing the competition.

But the thing is he's admitting that Thor, JL and Coco will essentially dominate the month before Star Wars, which means to some degree they are going to eat into each others box office takings.

Spoiler

It is important to note that the various Twilight/Harry Potter/Hunger Games movies have often performed relatively well in their second weekend no matter the strength of that Thanksgiving competition.

Point being, if it's any good, Justice League may not have to worry too much about Disney's new Pixar toon, Coco, opening next Thanksgiving. But the fact that Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held up so well even against the might of Walt Disney's Moana has to be a giant sigh of relief both for those directly involved in both of Warner Bros.' crown jewel franchises.

If Justice League is good, crowd-pleasing and/or gives the fans what they want in terms of bare minimum "your favorite superheroes sharing a screen together" entertainment value (see: Suicide Squad), it'll not only be able to count on a solid Thanksgiving-driven second weekend hold but also a barren desert of competition. It, Coco, and Marvel's (a presumably winding down but still potent) Thor: Ragnarok will be the absolute only games in town for a month. Fear of Star Wars Episode 8 will keep the competition at bay for Justice League and potentially let it run the tables like crazy for a solid month.

All I'll say on the matter, Mendelson's article goes thoroughly on every aspect I wanted to say. His point being, competition wont be something JL need to be scared about, atleast it wont be anymore than what these tentpoles usually face. If its good, it will do well.

 

[Iceman]

Some good points in the article. The big question is how good or bad JL is and that will be the single biggest factor, even outweighing all it's current baggage from past films and also cancelling out the presence of so many big name characters for the first time. I think this will be one of the most sensitive blockbusters to reception in a long time.

 

[B]

That's not that good at all

I didn't say it was good, I said it was realistic given the circumstances.

I actually think in this case RT will play a significant role in the success or failure of this film, especially if Thor is well received and still in theatres at the time. If Thor is getting like an 80%+ score and JL is getting sub 50% then I do believe it will cost them at the box office. We all probably agree what it should make, just given all the factors involved, given all the trends in audiences in movie going history JL kinda needs to be something that is close to universally liked to reach that number.

I don't think the RT score has any meaningful affect on these sorts of big blockbuster franchises. It's the audiences reviews/word of mouth which mean more in relation to sales & how many people actually pay to see it.

 

[Adder]

Also keep in mind that you have trailers like Ragnarok & It breaking records while Justice League has not broke any records so they do have more viewership

The Ragnarok trailer passed JL in total views now too.

 

[joeshmow014]

The Ragnarok trailer passed JL in total views now too.

Yeah and keep dreaming if you think Ragnarok is going to make more money than JL in the US...it's not going to be close domestic...trailer views or not.

 

[NealKenneth]

Under $800 million is my prediction.

First, DC hopefuls were surprised by how poorly Man of Steel did, then they were surprised by how poorly BvS did, then they were surprised by how poorly Suicide Squard did, and soon they will be surprised by how poorly Wonder Woman does.

Unless WW scores 80% plus on RT and a ton of people go (neither of these things will happen), JL is going to make less money than BvS, and BvS only made $850 million. If you think this impossible, then you haven't been paying attention. Even one bad film damages a franchise badly, but two or more starts a death spiral. DC has made three in a row so far. Doesn't matter how strong the brand was before that. Just look what happened to Spider-Man.

They need to soft reboot and hire completely new creative control. Joss Wheedon doing Batgril is a step in the right direction and I wish them the best of luck.

 

[idiot09]

then they were surprised by how poorly Suicide Squard did

Stopped reading there. Nice one.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Suicide Squad did not do poorly and did not under perform. Listen I hated BvS as well but there is no need to lie. This is why some detractors look so bad, they just flat out tell falsehoods because they don't like the movies. Yes Batman v Superman and Man of Steel totally underperformed but Suicide Squad did not. Deal with it.

 

[writer0327]

This will be lucky to crack $800M ww unless Wonder Woman sets the tone and makes people believe that DC is back to making great films. Honestly with the box office for the DCEU it doesn't really matter. They'll keep making films because what other choice the WB have?

 

[Zero_Effect]

This will be lucky to crack $800M ww unless Wonder Woman sets the tone and makes people believe that DC is back to making great films. Honestly with the box office for the DCEU it doesn't really matter. They'll keep making films because what other choice the WB have?

Um idk not make them? This is not Marvel Studios. WB releases all kinds of movies each year. They are not dependent on DC films.

 

[brandeezy89]

Under $800 million is my prediction.

First, DC hopefuls were surprised by how poorly Man of Steel did, then they were surprised by how poorly BvS did, then they were surprised by how poorly Suicide Squard did, and soon they will be surprised by how poorly Wonder Woman does.

Unless WW scores 80% plus on RT and a ton of people go (neither of these things will happen), JL is going to make less money than BvS, and BvS only made $850 million. If you think this impossible, then you haven't been paying attention. Even one bad film damages a franchise badly, but two or more starts a death spiral. DC has made three in a row so far. Doesn't matter how strong the brand was before that. Just look what happened to Spider-Man.

They need to soft reboot and hire completely new creative control. Joss Wheedon doing Batgril is a step in the right direction and I wish them the best of luck.

what?

Yeah SS & BvS did poorly alright

http://deadline.com/2017/04/most-pr...cret-life-of-pets-deadpool-disney-1202060846/

 

[STARMAN]

BvS didn't do poorly but less then they desired. It was the first piece of marketing for JL and a negative one.

 

[GreenKToo]

I don't subscribe to the idea on films hurting each other's B.O., thats a cop out.
If you have two or three films out at the same time, and if they're really good, people will see them, ie, shrek 3, spidey 3, potc 3.

 

[NealKenneth]

Yes, BvS and Suicide both underperformed. One underperformed critically and financially, the other just ciritcally. But either way, they both underperformed.

These are not lies/falsehoods. If you asked the average DC fan what they thought Suicide Squad would get on RT after the first trailer came out, the average would have been at least 70. It got 25. That's a huge underperformance....for BvS, WB came straight out and said anything under a billion would be a dissapointment, and it only got $850 million.

Let's not forget that both of these films were groundbreaking in the way their ticket sales dropped off in the first week, for which BvS actually set a record. That's a pretty clear indication that the financial success of both films was largely dependant on pre-release hype, not actual quality. So do you really think people who were tricked into seeing the first Suicide Squad are going to fall for it again? Or that all the people who saw BvS are still going to see Justice League?

In order to break even $900 million, Justice League has to attract a larger audience than any of the previous films...even though each one that has come out has lost the DCEU viewers.

Be honest with yourself. If I told you in 2013 that the first three DC films would average 36% on RT and barely scrape two billion...you would laugh off such a hugely impossible underachievement. But now, when that has actually happened, so many people are still making excuses.

Keep in mind that the three equivalents in the MCU (Man of Steel/first solo film = Iron Man, BvS/first teamup = The Avengers and Suicide Sqaud/first standalone team = Guardians of the Galaxy) made nearly three billion together and averaged over 92% on RT...I do feel for you guys, you did not ask for Snyder and all these chumps to mess up your characters, but you should at least be able to admit that all three films in DCEU have been failures. You're not helping yourself by acting like these ciritcal and financial earnings are acceptable or even close to performing as expected.

 

[Iceman]

I don't subscribe to the idea on films hurting each other's B.O., thats a cop out.
If you have two or three films out at the same time, and if they're really good, people will see them, ie, shrek 3, spidey 3, potc 3.

Depends how big they are. There's only a limited number of screens and seats. If TLJ opened against IW they would both make less than if they opened solo.

 

[odilonredon]

do you guys think if they had gotten a more well respected director to do jl it would make a big difference in the box office returns?