Man of Steel vs. Pirates- who wins box office?

[Triligors]

Also- please use the poll so we can see how the results come out.

I know this debate has been everywhere now. So, thought I would just put into one arena for fans to fight it out in. Who wins? Superman? Jack Sparrow? Time will only tell. Take your bets.

My opinion:

1. Superman Returns
2. Pirates

EW and Roeper predicted SR as the biggest blockbuster of the summer

Pirates 2, a sequel to a film that made around 300 mil. Sequels typically don't make more money than the first one- unless it looks alot better. This looks the same and just- the same.

As I said, still will see it. But, I see it as another sequel that doesn't beat the original so- 300 mil or under. These 400 mil predictions- not going to happen. A sequel doesn't make that much money.

Also, Batman Begins was Imax- but the theater didn't matter.

SR is IMAX 3D which provides for a better theater experience. "Flying" with the man of steel. Theater goers who go only once in a long while- obviously SR. Pirates is a rent for those only once in a great while theater goers. Both will bring in the same number of teen audiences or around the same number.

But, SR ranges from 8 year olds to 80 year old grandparents. Not to mention that there are ALOT more hardcore Supes fans than any other super hero who will go see it more than 10 times and even more than that!

POTC has one movie and a ride behind it, not that big of a fan core audience in comparison.

As said, I'll be seeing POTC twice or three times. So, I'm a fan. But, I'm more of a Supes fan. I want to see both do well. But, Supes is obvious #1 and Pirates is obvious #2. Both great, but Supes is super great!

The first Pirates drew audiences in because:
1. First of it's kind
2. Pirates movie in a long while
3. New pirates movie look

The sequel looks like a carbon copy of the original. Bringing nothing really new in. So, while it will be good- it won't be as good. I've read the book and while it's good- it's not great. The first one was original, the second is more of a "seen that already."

Question: To those who think it will be a hit, do you know alot about it- or just what you've seen in trailers?

Supes will get the better reviews. POTC is alright, but not great. Word of mouth will show this. Supes great. Pirates good- but, like any sequel- it's a sequel that doesn't bring anything really new to it and doesn't beat the original.

More teenage guys will go to Superman than Pirates of the Carribbean. I can state that as a 88% possible fact.

Girls- don't know what they think of Routh. But, the love story will bring a lot of girls in.

Kids- Superman pajamas, Superman toys, etc. - POC is disney, but Superman is Superman! I already see kids with Superman toys and kids pretending to be Superman. Holloween: Lots of kids will be Superman. Etc. Kids- Superman.


Teenage & young Girls- Our real and only threat.But, I don't know in this area yet. But- SMALLVILLE is more than likely to bring in alot of the teenage girl audience.

Adults & Grandparents- grew up with Superman

Thus, SR has the larger audience- and most of this audience is fans. Because, let's face it how many people do you know who aren't Supes fans because of one thing or another?

Age over fad and not great sequel. I've read the POTC2 book- not much too it, just average sequel, Good, not great. Don't seeing it getting phenomenal reviews, only great. Read the Supes book as well- way better story, classic is back- phenomenal reviews.

Pirates will kill pirates. Pun intended. It will still be #2, but pirates will not kill Supes- pun still intended.

Superman 3D Imax Experience will draw LOTS in and most likely be the way most theater viewers see Superman Returns.

Pirates 3 viewers (8) Supes 2 (12- Imax)

Pirates= 21
Supes= 24

That extra money adds up quickly. Thus, even if Pirates gets more viewers. Imax will definitely still make Supes- #1.

This summer you will believe that a man can fly!

I've said my piece, what's your opinion and take?

Please note that this board is NOT for bashing. But, to put down your thoughts on what movie will be #1. Both will be great, definitely in #1 and #2. Which will be #1?

 

[deathshead2]

Arrr it be the pirates matey.

 

[Flexo]

Pirates has a lot going for it. Filled with action, big star power, interesting villains...

Nothing against Superman, but I doubt it'll do amazing. It doesn't seem like Superman will have an equal when it comes to fighting, so the movie will basically be a romance with some rescue missions.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

It's hard to say. Honestly, from the trailers I've seen both movies feel like rehashes. Pirates looks to be more of the same and I've already aired my grievances about Superman looking like a Richard Donner Redux instead of something new.

One thing POTCII has going for it is it built its audience on word of mouth which will no doubt aid the sequel in having a higher opening at the box offce than the original.

 

[Dr. Fate]

My money's on the Pirates of the Caribbean sequel.

 

[The Dark Defender]

Pirates easily, it'll probably be the biggest of the year.

 

[War Party]

I would love for Superman to win the box office war, but I got to give it to Pirates.

 

[Timstuff]

I think POTC2 will be a bigger success. Superman Returns is trying to be a sequel to a movie that most people hardly even remember, and in a day of climactic good-versus-evil slugfests, somehow the "Ooh, Superman stopped an airplane from crashing" gag doesn't seem as exciting anymore. POTC2 looks like a solid follow up to the first one only bigger and better, which could potentially spell an even better reception than the first one.

 

[Galactus]

Maybe it will end with Superman being the winner in North America, but POTC bigger worldwide. But who knows. Trying to predict box office isn't easy...

Maybe the length of the Superman-movie (over two and a half hours from what I've read) can effect it negatively...

 

[Triligors]

Length, I'm pretty sure is going to be the exact same.

The original was 143 minutes- 2 hr 23 minutes. Not that much of a difference. And I doubt the sequel is going to aim for a shorter length.




Also- spoiler- that jet scene isn't just a jet scene, that's all the trailer shows: Supes brings it down in the middle of a baseball stadium with fans watching and everything. It's a REALLY epic and classic scene that is going to have audiences VERY excited if filmed right, and knowing Singer- it will be. So, TimStuff- if that's the word that's been traveling (what you just said) it will have a good opening but GREAT life span due to word of mouth. Because the visuals that make this film epic and the way in which it's done that give it a classic feel and the probably phenomenal reviews and lots of press- 30th (moved back to 27th) is going to be Supes day from there to the end of theatrical release.

Also, as EW said 8-year olds to 80 year old grandparents. Teenage girls DON'T make box office. 80 year olds will come for obvious reasons: grew up with Superman & Eva Marie Saint

Questions for those who think Pirates will be # 1:
1. Why do you think that?
2. Have you read the novel or just seen the trailer?
3. Do you have the same view from the trailer as TimStuff?

 

[The Dark Defender]

Also- spoiler- that jet scene isn't just a jet scene, that's all the trailer shows: Supes brings it down in the middle of a baseball stadium with fans watching and everything. It's a REALLY epic and classic scene that is going to have audiences VERY excited if filmed right, and knowing Singer- it will be.

Knowing Singer, It'll suck...royally.

 

[Triligors]

You really do a great job arguing your point Stormy, you should be a lawyer... no- seriously.

 

[The Dark Defender]

You really do a great job arguing your point Stormy, you should be a lawyer... no- seriously.

Yes, because "Knowing Singer, it will be" has so much more depth to it than "Knowing Singer, it won't be."

And yes, I do a very good job of arguing my point, just read any one of the many, many lengthy posts that go into graphic detail that I've made in X-Men threads about what a talentless hack this guy is, who's now off to go **** up a different comic book franchise.

 

[HUMAN]

I think the mere fact that Pirates comes out RIGHT after SR will mean that it'll be a bigger success. I think WB realized this truth also when they decided to move the opening date of SR forward three days.

 

[Stringer]

Pirates. It already has the base to make it some money because of the first one, just like X3. Superman returns, as much as fans wont admit, doesnt have the hype around it to beat out Pirates. Thats not to say it wont be successful though.

 

[Triligors]

Pirates:
I've read the book- which is basically the script. And it isn't that good. An average script, no matter how much special effects or who stars does not amount to a film that will own the box office.

I was hyped, the book (the script) turned me off. Thus, word of mouth will most likely take a plunge after opening night. Definitely not as good as the first film. Imagine Around the World in 80 days (quality wise as well) meets POTC.

 

[The Kid]

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh sad to say it but pirates will dissapoint. Superman's return will be THE topic at the work places playgrounds/parks and school yards, not some silly disney ride. lol

 

[Triligors]

I WAS hyped. Not anymore. The film has the same quality as Fantastic Four. While a good film, it isn't great. The first one was GREAT. And is one of my favorite films. The script I read really disappointed me. Took away my favorite parts of it, made it more for children, had alot of inside gags of the first film- but way too much, and the dialouge wasn't that great.

So, I was hyped. But, now I know that the film will be good- not great.

I can see why you're excited. But, trailers can make any film look great.

 

[Farren]

Pirates - everyone I know is psyched for it.

No one I know is really jazzed for Superman....

But that's just my personal experience...

 

[Triligors]

Right now- word of mouth for Pirates is strong. After more people see the actual film, will take a plunge.

 

[xwolverine2]

i know more people that want to see pirates than SR...

so pirates.

 

[HUMAN]

I've read both of the novelizations. Personally I liked Dead Man's Chest better. And that's coming from someone who grew up loving Superman and everything about the character. Returns just seems too 70's. I also feel that some atheists may find the "saviour" issue a little pressed in the film, more so than in Narnia.

 

[WorthyStevens]

I'll wait to vote...

Superman could pull another Spider-Man, but POTCII could easily pull a Shrek 2 as well...

 

[Triligors]

Did the poll to see a sample 'Box Office' to keep track of. Saying both films are as good as hyped...

So far the poll is 8 to 11. So, I'll say 1/2 Imax 1/2 regular.

Night showing. 8 for reg. 12 for Imax, sometimes more.

POTC2= 88

1/2 theater, 1/2 Imax SR= 32 + 48= 80
Most Imax SR, some theater SR= 72 + 16= 88
All Imax SR= 96

I think that most people will go see SR in Imax: larger screen, better sound + for just a couple of bucks extra you get to see Supes in 3D (which will more than likely be one of the many marketing tools for the movie- talk shows, entertainment tonight, magazines released around then, etc.- 3D is going to be another part of the film the WB sell).... SR has less viewers that Pirates (8 to 11) but, if it's more- it still has the same exact money.

Will keep an updated account. But, if the WB promote the 3D- like I think they will- we might be seeing 'neck and neck' box office

 

[Triligors]

Due to Imax and pull of Imax though, might turn out that Pirates would need to get half double Superman audience numbers- since majority will more than likely go to the Imax which costs more money. So, even if Pirates has a larger audience- Superman 3D will be a VERY strong rival to beat (even if it doesn't have as large an audience, you've got a more expensive ticket).

But, also unlikely:

Plus, no offense- fans are crazy. Pirates don't have these fans. I remember Kong fans saying three days after opening that they've scene it twenty times. Superman, more than likely, has a larger "die hard" audience than Kong has and that Pirates doesn't have. Plus, shorter- allowing in possibly 25 times? As I said, don't mess with die hard fans. Plus, add in most of these viewings will more than likely be Imax. I mean, if you look at the "die hard" fans out there- seeing the movie 20. And then fans seeing it 5-10, plus mostly in Imax. Yeah, you're looking at your replacement for the teenage girl bridgade right there- plus some.

Teenage girls vs. "Die hard" fans- (note: I'm just a fan- not die hard).... I definitely think Die Hard fans beat them to the punch. While teenage girls might go to POTC2 once or twice. Die hard fans- might not even be to count how many times.