Figure I may as well repost some sales thoughts with additions:
Dread said:
In fairness, FEAR ITSELF tie-in's did boost sales for AVENGERS and SECRET AVENGERS, albeit modestly. Comic sales for the top 300 were also down over 16% in May 2011, at least versus May 2010. Line wide monthly comic sales for the Top 300 are down for every year vs. year comparison except for the 10 year one; sales are up about 6% from May 2001 (back when comics were still $1.99 to $2.25). Yet Marvel and DC are over-publishing like it's 1993. Bad, bad sign. You can see it even in the Top 100. ZATANNA sold at #100 with less than 18,500 copies sold. Marvel's top ongoing title, even WITH a crossover tie-in, sells at under 69k and is a Top 5 seller. A comic that sells 30k is a Top 50 seller. That's insane.
FEAR ITSELF #2 fell over 32,000 copies from it's debut (which was 128.5k), a second issue drop of over 20%, and probably closer to 30%. FLASHPOINT #1 debuted at 87k, and #2 in May 2011, but it may see a reprint that'll add to those numbers.
HERC #2 fell to over 17k, after debuting to over 38.5k in April. That's a drop of about 47-49%. HERC #3, a FEAR ITSELF issue, rebounded a little to over 18k, which means the event boosted it, or retailers underordered issues of #2. Still, a 1k boost from an event is little more than when a decent variant cover does. If FEAR ITSELF doesn't boost it, I doubt SPIDER-ISLAND will.
ALPHA FLIGHT #0.1 debuted to 25,775 sales. Expecting the more expensive #1 issue to outsell that may be optimistic. Back when RUNAWAYS was selling about that much at the end of the Vaughan/Alphona run, it sold in the Top 85 or so. Now, that's worthy of Top 65 sales.
FEAR ITSELF: SPIDER-MAN #1 sold at over 35k; given that the low side of ASM's May average was 55k, that's not too shabby. From there, though, it gets rough as you mentioned. In April, FEAR ITSELF: THE HOME FRONT #1 debuted at over 32.5k sales; by May it is down to 28,605 copies; a modest drop, although sales by issue #7 may be below 20k, which is still FAR south from FEAR ITSELF itself. FEAR ITSELF: YOUTH IN REVOLT #1 debuted to 24,709 copies and sales for that may be even uglier - given that Sean McKeever's YOUNG ALLIES was DOA in terms of sales, it isn't surprising.
The spare FEAR ITSELF titles do not exist to sell on their own; they exist to be part of a higher slate of comics released than DC has, and to clog the bottom of the Top 125. They're the Red Shirts of comic books; existing merely to outnumber the enemy by physical bodies with no regard to their lives. Yet if Marvel published fewer books, they'd incur fewer costs, and maybe be able to afford things like 22 comics at $2.99 again. I know, madness.
Added:
The Top 300 books are down over 17% versus May 2010. Now, most of that loss is really within the Top 150 or so, as the bottom of the Top 300 has remained steady the last few months.
While Marvel and DC dismissed the idea of "event fatigue", it does seem that by 2011, it has arrived. FEAR ITSELF is the first event since 2004 that I can recall in which only the debut issue sold over 100k; SIEGE last year sold over 100k for every issue (even if just barely by the end). This time, issue #2 is below 97k, and FLASHPOINT #1 was almost 10k below that. If it sees even the usual 20% drop off, it'll be barely outselling typical issues of GREEN LANTERN, which coming off FINAL CRISIS is a bit embarrassing. And, as noted above, Marvel's first two FI mini's are not selling very well at all. When the first spare mini couldn't even crack the Top 40 in April, that's bad.
Sales for CAPTAIN AMERICA slipped a little from April's issue, but the series has still gained sales overall since February (about 3% overall); is this due to the film, or just Brubaker's word of mouth quality on the book? And will a relaunch cause a "jumping off point" at a time when the book was gaining slow and steady sales naturally? Marvel, and DC, need to realize that "flash in the pan" stunts and gimmicks that boost sales dramatically are mirages; they don't last long. What they need to do is imitate the model of THE WALKING DEAD, which has gained slow but very steady sales for 5-7 years. It has crawled from the Top 125 to the Top 40 and all of that wasn't merely due to the weakness of the market. Instead, Marvel insists on relaunches that boost sales for a book maybe 10-50% for one month and then it's back down to the standard decline from where it left off. People once feared that Disney or Warner Brothers would "boss around" comic publishers; now, I honestly feel an outsider who actually dealt with real business in the real world bursting into the senior editorial/promotional department with a sales trend sheet who screams, "WHAT THE **** ARE YOU CLUELESS MORONS DOING!?" would do wonders for the industry. We need more adults, not "babymen".
AMAZING SPIDER-MAN has been heating up. Since BRAND NEW DAY in 2008, it's average range has been 52k-55k per issue; since February, it has only hit the low end of that spectrum once, and has often averaged 58-59k when it's only shipped twice (May saw 3 issues). Amusingly, those AVENGERS ACADEMY guest starring issues sold better than the "Ghost Of Jean DeWolfe" kick-off, which implies that some people who read AA don't read ASM and thus ASM got a modest boost from that guest appearance via some of those fans. That, or retailers seem to cut bait a little once ASM ships more than twice a month - although that didn't impact the .1 issue.
Speaking of AVENGERS ACADEMY, while it did see another sales drop in May, it continues to be in low numbers (double digits). In April, it sold 23,578 copies; in May, it sold 23,537. That's a drop of a mere 41 copies, or like 0.1% or so. In comparison, AVENGERS and NEW AVENGERS routinely see drops of 1-5% an issue most months. AVENGERS ACADEMY has sold above 23,500 copies for the past 4 months. Online, Gage has claimed sales have been steady for the past 9 issues. That's a bit of a stretch, but it is a title that hasn't seen a sales drop above 1% since 2/2011. Thus, for the moment it is the new RUNAWAYS - it doesn't have a large audience, but it appears steady for the moment (akin to the 23-24k who show up for DnA cosmic books). If Marvel were wise, they'd imitate what worked for RUNAWAYS and repackage reprints of AVENGERS ACADEMY not in HC's or trades but cheaper digests. Marvel's new price for digests is $9.99 (which is daft when you consider ARCHIE, whose trades actually hit chain retailers and grocery stands, sells them at $3.99), but that's better than a $15 trade or a needless $20 hardcover. If any title should be kept up to date in the digital shop and sold for some price below cover, it's this one. The $7.99 GIANT SIZE, which was 3 comics sold as one fat special that had been sitting on a shelf for a month or two while Marvel dithered over a name, sold over 18.5k. If you consider the rational fact that many spin-off's sell, at best, half as well as the parent title, this isn't shabby.
But, the great (bad) thing about Marvel is they don't duplicate their GENUINE successes, which often happened by accident, only the short term fixes. They don't learn that cheaply priced digests or trades can actually help promote and revive a title, nor that resting a franchise a few years to build demand works (the lesson of Thor). Instead they renumber and relaunch and crossover, and, yeah.
ASTONISHING SPIDER-MAN & WOLVERINE #6 finishing at 23,600 copies is embarrassing for what was seen as some sort of special thing. Instead, retailers (rightly) saw it as useless spare material. I can't imagine the other ASTONISHING mini's will fare better. ASTONISHING X-MEN as an ongoing series does better, but even it doesn't sell in the Top 35. Heck, even WOLVERINE no longer sells in the Top 30. WOLVERINE: THE BEST THERE IS #6 selling below 22,700 copies means another 2,000 readers, or about 6-8%, left since April (which had a variant cover). Its now fallen above 51% in six months. The market clearly does not want a second Wolverine title; just his solo one is selling at middling numbers compared to previous highs. The DARK WOLVERINE/WOLVERINE: WEAPON X shift represented a major jumping off point and the Canucklehead has yet to recover from it. X-23 and DAKEN are still seeing 2% or more drops, but they're still outdoing the Solo Wolverine B-Title (with X-23 being the stronger of the two, which makes sense as she's the older character who was on TV twice). Despite also being over-exposed, Spider-Man has weathered the last year or two much better than Wolverine in terms of sales, even if he can't support as many "family" books for long.
ANNIHILATORS #3 sold at above 23k, which is about the average for the space titles that sticks around. Considering it was packaged as two comics for $4.99, the sales look better than if it were sold as two titles. Thus, while the era of Marvel allowing DnA to sell 2 space ongoing titles may be over, they still see the need to keep them on one mini series. Although isn't a train of mini's by the same writers (and lately, artists) just an ongoing under another name? Maybe the breaks between mini's help keep costs down. It is worth noting that it is out-performing SILVER SURFER despite a higher cover price.
HEROES FOR HIRE shipped two issues in May, and it did not help things at all. H4H #7 is down to just above 18k copies; Marvel usually axes a comic that sinks below 19k without a sign of rebounding (such as SPIDER-GIRL, and why HERC #3 hitting such a number is bad). The series has been solicited up to a 12th issue, but...YOUNG ALLIES had a 7th issue solicited that never was published. If H4H lasts a year, I'd be stunned if it made it past issue #15 even with double-shipping. Clearly, the steady audience that sticks with DnA for "cosmic" books are not as interested in them on "street level heroics". Which is a shame, as H4H has probably been stronger than ANNIHILATORS was to me.
THUNDERBOLTS sold just over 25k, and like AA, saw a drop in the double digits (i.e. a small one) from April. It's sold in the 25-26k range since the start of 2011. While this seems like a bad number to be stuck at, it was barely selling above 24k in 2006, so it is still a rare title that can boast of selling better than it did 5 years ago. I wonder if the constant shift in cast is undermining Jeff Parker's story. HULK continues to be his best selling work.
Hopefully, the 26k sales for DAREDEVIL REBORN is not a sign of what to expect from the relaunch with Mark Waid and Marcos Martin.
It is very sad to see POWER MAN & IRON FIST finish below 9,000 copies. It isn't the best thing Fred Van Lente has done within the last 12 months, but...that was TASKMASTER, which barely sold better.
I seem to notice quite a lot of spare Wolverine/Thor/Captain America mini's selling below the Top 100. That's classic market flood. Marvel needs to drastically trim down their line, not play a game with DC trying to out-publish them to the poor-house. The downside of trimming their line would be less work for some writers/artists and so on, which would be unfortunate for some. After all, if such a culling happened, it would be the Bendis', Fractions, Brubakers and Hickmans who survive and the Tobins and Van Lentes who don't.
At this point, despite the decent sales, SECRET AVENGERS is looking like a title that has no reason to exist once Brubaker left it. Marvel may see it as the next ASTONISHING X-MEN, a pointless book with "mid name" talent aboard it (Warren Ellis is not as big as he used to be).
.....only to give it right back on the very next issue....
