MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

Iron Man 3

Budget: $200 M
Domestic: $350 M
Foreign: $450 M
Worldwide: $800 M

Thor: The Dark World

Budget: $200 m
Domestic: $240 M
Foreign: $400 M
Total: $640 M

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Budget: $175 M
Domestic: $225 M
Foreign: $285 M
Total: $510 M

Guardians of the Galaxy

Budget: $175 M
Domestic: $175 M
Foreign: $300 M
Worldwide: $475 M

Avengers 2


Budget: $300 M
Domestic: $500 M
Foreign: $1.25 Billion
Worldwide: $1.75 Billion


Ant-Man

Budget: $125 M
Domestic: $110 M/ $150 M (If Pym is in A2)
Foreign: $150 M / $250 M (If Pym is in A2)
Worldwide: $260 M/ $400 M (If Pym is in A2)

 

Obviously it's early so these aren't much more than guesses...

Iron Man 3
Budget: 225M/Domestic Gross: 350M/Overseas Gross: 550M/Total Gross: 900M

Thor: The Dark World
Budget: 200M/Domestic Gross: 220M/Overseas Gross: 450M/Total Gross: 670M

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Budget: 175M/Domestic Gross: 200M/Overseas Gross: 300M/Total Gross: 500M

Guardians of the Galaxy
Budget: 175M/Domestic Gross: 160M/Overseas Gross: 250M/Total Gross: 410M

Avengers 2
Budget: 300M/Domestic Gross: 550M/Overseas Gross: 1.1B/Total Gross: 1.65B

Ant-Man
Budget: 100M/Domestic Gross: 110M/Overseas Gross: 150M/Total Gross: 260M

 

Iron Man 3
Budget: $215 M
Domestic: $395 M
Foreign: $470 M
Worldwide: $865 M

Thor: The Dark World
Budget: $200 m
Domestic: $285 M
Foreign: $450 M
Total: $735 M

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Budget: $185 M
Domestic: $255 M
Foreign: $375 M
Total: $650 M

Guardians of the Galaxy
Budget: $180 M
Domestic: $195 M
Foreign: $285 M
Worldwide: $370 M

Avengers 2
Budget: $265 M
Domestic: $590 M
Foreign: $1 Billion
Worldwide: $1.59 Billion

Ant-Man
Budget: $130 M
Domestic: $158 M
Foreign: $130 M
Worldwide: $288 M

 

Great minds think alike.

Occasionally, message board geeks do, too.

 

I don't see how you do GotG properly with 175 million. Outer space/alien settings, two major cgi characters, special effects up the ***. If they actually want to pull off Rocket - ie hes not just an animated sidekick/mascot - its gonna take top notch voice work and a Hulk-sized financial commitment. In fact, I would argue that its gonna be trickier to pull off Rocket than the Hulk. and he could end up having even more screen time than the Hulk did in TA.

The budget for casting will probably be significantly less than TA or IM, so they'll probably save 30 million right there. Im gonna go with 200 million (the official budget) for GotG.

IM3 200 million

Thor:TDW 180 million

Cap:TWS 180 million

GotG 200 million

Avengers 2 275 million

Ant-Man 125 million


I agree that 200 million seems like a lot for a completely unproven property, but thats part of what makes GotG a ballsy choice by Marvel. I think they really need to go all in and treat it like a tent-pole project. And of course they have to keep the focus on the characters, which will require talent and money. Otherwise, it could be another JC.

 

I dont believe for a second that MoS budget is actually 175. But I guess we're going by official numbers. I just think that the non-human characters will require some next level **** fx-wise. But since they wont have RDJ or even ScarJo level salaries to pay, maybe its doable.

 

I doubt it did. And Star Trek definitely did not cost 150M, lol. I just used the budgets that I think they'd be willing to report, we never get actual budgets for movies

 

Do you guys think Marvel might be able to get Weta for GotG? Them or ILM are the only fx companies I'll be able to accept for a film like that. We don't want another Green Lantern or even Incredible Hulk (Even though I liked it) in terms of special effects/cgi

 

They got them both for Avengers, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're already in talks.

 

Given Marvel's large slate, they'll need to use WETA, ILM and various other effects firms to keep up with the work. WETA in particular should really benefit from Marvel's plans. Im hoping they have their best people working on Rocket Raccoon.

 

I think you pretty much nailed it here.

 

I generally agree on most of these numbers, but I could definitely see Cap, Guardians, and Ant-Man making at least 100M more than is listed here...

Also, I think the budgets for Avengers 2 come down by a good 50M.

 

I have a hard time seeing Cap making 600M at this point, 450 -500M is much more reasonable. Let's see a trailer at least.

 

Some associated Marvel literature (I believe it was a trading card series) admitted that Avengers 1 had a budget of $300 M. Forbes also reported a total budget of $475 M for production and marketing (Likely $300 M for the film and rest for marketing.)

But yes, I imagine Marvel will only admit to a quarter billion budget.

 

Joss Whedon will have his hands all over this one, plus Cap is the character that really benefits the most from The Avengers. I can definitely see it making about $200M domestically and $400M internationally. Plus, along with GotG, this one will be the one that leads right into Avengers 2 the next year. I see $480M as the floor with this one.

 

I hope your right. That would be a 230M increase.

I won't even try and guess with GoTG.

 

I think Cap will get a bigger percentage boost than Iron Man will. I figure Cap and Thor will see 50% increases in foreign markets and 25-33% increases domestically.

Iron Man is tougher to gauge. Some people think he will perform like Batman post Avengers. I think as a solo character, he's hit his ceiling in domestic markets. I'm basically predicting Iron Man 2 numbers with a 3-D boost.

Generally, it's harder for a character that's already successful and already highly visible to have a giant increase than it is one who performed at sort of mid-tent pole level.

 

I said he benefited the most from Avengers, not that he was the most popular character in the film, even though that's debatable.

Your logic is reversed, in essence the more successful the character's solo movie was, the less of a boost their sequel will get from The Avengers. More people BECAME fans of Captain America IN The Avengers than any of the other heroes because more people were already fans of those other characters beforehand from their solo movies. So basically, Captain America benefited the most from Avengers, then Thor, then Iron Man. If Hulk were getting a sequel then he'd definitely be the one who benefited the most. I hope that explained what I meant.

 

Co-sign....Iron Man may have reached his saturation point as a solo franchise already. Cap and Thor have plenty of room for growth.

This might be personal bias, but I think Captain America has the most room to grow based not only on having a lower solo performance, but also based on pre-film popularity. Up until the Marvel Cinematic Universe started in 2008, Cap was substantially more famous than Iron Man and Thor.

There's something about Captain America that appealed to people for generations, and I think once they find the right combination to unlock that popularity on film, Cap will be a domestic box office juggernaut.

 

Domestically, sure. Overseas it's going to explode next year.

 

I agree with that. I see it doing 450-600 M foreign. Domestic? I think 400 is going to be tough for it.