I think Rampage is going to lose badly. He's probably in the worst spot mentally because this fight is probably the hardest for him. Against most guys he's got a good chance, but Machida's style is just the wrong type of matchup for a guy like Rampage that depends on working his way into that big shot. Machida isn't really the type of guy that will talk **** to get Rampage motivated either. He's a quiet guy with a language barrier, so there won't be any extra motivation for Rampage to knock him out because he talks too much or they have beef.
The thing that really hurts Rampage the worst is that he's a really emotional guy that drowns a bit in his own excuses when things aren't going his way. In many ways he's like the 205 version of B.J. Penn because they both fade when things aren't going their way. When Rampage lost to Wand and Shogun back in PRIDE he pretty much blamed everyone but himself, then wasn't really the same beast anymore until he got in the UFC and was motivated by Ibarra and fighting for the title. Then when he got upset by Forrest he blamed everyone, cut ties with Ibarra who some say was stealing from Rampage, went on that rampage in the streets, and there were serious doubts about his return. After knocking out Wand and beating Jardine he was "back" again until the Rashad beef became long and worn out. When he finally fought Rashad he was supposed to be in the best shape ever, and motivated to knock Rashad out because he talks too much. After he lost he didn't blame anyone, but now he says that he just doesn't care about the title anymore. He just seems off, and frustrated about having to talk about his upcoming fight. I hate seeing him like that because it reminds me too much of him getting his head kicked by Shogun while in the corner of the ropes.