Possible movement on Black Widow spin-off?

[NotNickFury]

I have a vague recollection of Lore from years back, but never seen it myself.

 

[Kane52630]

Cate Shortland did a great job with Berlin Syndrome.

 

[Web-Head]

Still a little indifferent about the movie itself. I think as a small scale one-off could work for the MCU.

Probably a little bit late but Scarlett deserves it

 

[MasterCat]

Apparently $25 million of the budget is Scarlett Johansson's salary.
I wonder how tight they can keep the budget. This has a high probability of grossing less than Ant-Man.

 

[Kane52630]

I can see make Lucy money at the very least.

 

[Flint Marko]

This has a high probability of grossing less than Ant-Man.

Errrrr....

Isn't it way early in the game to be making calls like that?

 

[childeroland]

Her films Somersault and Lore are superb. This is a good choice.

 

[Web-Head]

Variety is saying it's not confirmed it'll be a prequel just yet...
https://variety.com/2018/film/news/...and-1202872088/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

[MasterCat]

I can see make Lucy money at the very least.

$463 million worldwide is less than Ant-Man's $519M, so I could see that.
Lucy also had a production budget of $40 million.

 

[MasterCat]

Isn't it way early in the game to be making calls like that?

Why? This is the stage where they have to make calls on the budget, and responsible executives base that on expected performance.

 

[Flint Marko]

Why? This is the stage where they have to make calls on the budget, and responsible executives base that on expected performance.

But you aren't an executive with insider knowledge of the budget and scope of the movie, you're a fan on the outside just like everyone else here.

So knowing nothing about this movie beyond the lead character, can you explain why you think this has a "high probability" of grossing less than Ant-man?

 

[MasterCat]

So knowing nothing about this movie beyond the lead character, can you explain why you think this has a "high probability" of grossing less than Ant-man?

Because there are lots of espionage action films with female leads. Ant-Man set the floor for MCU films after Phase 1, and that was still a unique superhero film. "Espionage action film with female lead" is not protected by copyright, so there's a lot more competition. ScarJo is not a guaranteed box office success: Ghost in the Shell made less than $170 million 2017 dollars worldwide.
Obviously it can't do that badly, because of Marvel brand loyalty, but a female-led spy movie could look less interesting to audiences than Ant-Man with its unique superhero visuals, so Disney needs to be financially prepared for that.

 

[Web-Head]

I'm more interested to see if it will be a prequel or after Avengers 4. Who the villains will be. Will it be an origin story? Who will join the cast alongside Scarlett? As of now I'm fine with a Widow movie, a little indifferent but once we get more information I'll know if I'll be more excited or just indifferent overall.

 

[MasterCat]

I'm more interested to see if it will be a prequel or after Avengers 4. Who the villains will be. Will it be an origin story?

Those are two very good questions.

 

[Kane52630]

"Johansson’s Widow is reportedly set before the events of the first Avengers movie and sees the actress reprise the Russian spy-turned-super heroine."

...

 

[Flint Marko]

Because there are lots of espionage action films with female leads.

There are even more espionage action films with male leads. Like, way more. A new one is opening up next week. Think that'll gross less than the first Ant-man?

Ant-Man set the floor for MCU films after Phase 1, and that was still a unique superhero film. "Espionage action film with female lead" is not protected by copyright, so there's a lot more competition. ScarJo is not a guaranteed box office success: Ghost in the Shell made less than $170 million 2017 dollars worldwide.
Obviously it can't do that badly, because of Marvel brand loyalty, but a female-led spy movie could look less interesting to audiences than Ant-Man with its unique superhero visuals, so Disney needs to be financially prepared for that.

So you're already looking at a movie we know next to nothing about that literally just got a director and putting it in a box of "female-led spy movie" as if it's just going to be that and nothing more?

We know nothing about this project yet you're already putting a cap on how much it'll earn because there are other movies in a box that you've already decided that it neatly fits in? Your logic doesn't hold up.

 

[zephyrinthesky]

I'm more interested to see if it will be a prequel or after Avengers 4. Who the villains will be. Will it be an origin story? Who will join the cast alongside Scarlett? As of now I'm fine with a Widow movie, a little indifferent but once we get more information I'll know if I'll be more excited or just indifferent overall.

I know the rumour mill says it's a prequel, but I'm holding out hope it's 50-50 between flashbacks and post-A4. The idea of the past never dying even after facing down Thanos and the apocalypse has a grounded appeal to it.

 

[Web-Head]

There are almost so many more possibilities if it's a prequel. Hawkeye could be in it, Winter Soldier, Fury or even

Spoiler

Ghost

It'll be interesting. I think set between Iron Man 2 and Avengers would be ideal with flashbacks to her time in Russia, etc...

 

[MasterCat]

There are even more espionage action films with male leads. Like, way more. A new one is opening up next week. Think that'll gross less than the first Ant-man?

Quite possibly. Most "realistic" action films gross less than $519M.

So you're already looking at a movie we know next to nothing about that literally just got a director and putting it in a box of "female-led spy movie" as if it's just going to be that and nothing more?

We know nothing about this project yet you're already putting a cap on how much it'll earn because there are other movies in a box that you've already decided that it neatly fits in? Your logic doesn't hold up.

Not a cap. It could earn more than Ant-Man. But what if it feels so inconsequential to audiences that it doesn't? Are they financially prepared for that possibility?
Personally, I really like Ant-Man; I thin the Pym family has huge potential to change the MCU if done right. What could be huge about Black Widow?

 

[Web-Head]

...

It seems likely but Variety said it wasn't confirmed either way yet.

 

[MasterCat]

What do you think they could put in the trailers to make this look consequential?
I especially wonder what they'll do for a villain.

 

[Flint Marko]

Quite possibly. Most "realistic" action films gross less than $519M.

But... who's to say Black Widow is going to be "realistic"? Just because she doesn't have powers doesn't mean anything.

The franchise in question is Mission Impossible, of which 3/5 of those movies have grossed more than $519M and this next one is sure to cross that as well. Bankable lead, established franchise, I'm not seeing the difference here other than the gender of the lead character.

Not a cap. It could earn more than Ant-Man. But what if it feels so inconsequential to audiences that it doesn't? Are they financially prepared for that possibility?
Personally, I really like Ant-Man; I thin the Pym family has huge potential to change the MCU if done right. What could be huge about Black Widow?

Why don't we actually wait and see what the movie is about before putting it in a box based on seemingly nothing more than the gender of the lead character? I mean you get how that's coming across as the crux of your argument, right?

 

[MasterCat]

Mission Impossible isn't coming out next week so far as I know, so I didn't think those very successful spy films were what you were talking about. Plus I just provided a counter-example to ScarJo being a guaranteed bankable lead.

Will you stop calling me illogical so you can frame me as sexist? Especially as a man going after a woman...
Gender is not the issue. The issue is that you can't count on a spy movie to be a box office juggernaut unless it stars James Bond or Tom Cruise. This doesn't sound like a superhero movie, so Disney should be financially prepared for it to not even reach their floor for a superhero movie. That's it.

 

[samsnee]

It makes the most sense to set it as a prequel. The question is will Fury and Clint make an appearance? Supposedly SLJ will be digitally de-aged for the entire Captain Marvel movie so don’t see why they couldn’t do the same for this movie unless it’s budget constraints.

If they can keep the budget below $150M then could turn a nice profit.

 

[MasterCat]

If they can keep the budget below $150M then could turn a nice profit.

Unless there are superhero visuals, they should be able to make it for a LOT less than that. Ant-Man had lots of CGI on a $130 million budget, though Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas weren't taking $25 million even between the two of them.