Sales Estimates for June 2011

Wow, apparently Fear Itself is kicking Flashpoint's ass.

It's depressing that that's actually a valid way of looking at the sales rankings... :csad:
 
ICV2 finally released their report of hard figures from Diamond for June 2011; on the first of August. Blame the SDCC, I guess.

Overall: http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/20702.html
Dollar Trends: http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/20553.html
Top 300: http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/20700.html

Overall, while USM #160 topped the charts with 159k, and FEAR ITSELF continues to beat out FLASHPOINT by an 8k margin per issue, June 2011 was down 4.6% from June 2010. Keep in mind, June 2010 was hardly a strong month, up barely 1% from June 2009. And there were no crossover events in June 2010.

Initial observations:

- While FF is still losing sales every month from it's relaunch high, those slips are lessoning and it is still a Top 5 seller - and outsells NEW AVENGERS.

- The argument Marvel gives of there being no interest in Alpha Flight or heroes set in other countries continues to be false. ALPHA FLIGHT #1, of an 8 issue mini, debuted in the Top 20 with almost 47k. Back in 2005, Marvel launched OMEGA FLIGHT and that was to be an ongoing, but they got cold feet and kept it a mini. It debuted at over 50k and held very steady for the entire series - it would have lasted a year at least as a series. And you can't simply say that this success is due to Greg Pak & Fred Van Lente; their HERC is at the bottom of the charts, as is Pak's INCREDIBLE HULKS. FEAR ITSELF likely helped, but there may be genuine interest. Given that the 0.1 issue sold about 25k, that's an impressive debut.

- WOLVERINE, who continues to be treated as an A-Lister with no end of spin-off's, struggles to sell in the Top 30. He's become a B-Lister, only Marvel don't notice.

- While FLASHPOINT is being outsold by FEAR ITSELF, many of the spare Flashpoint mini's or one-shots are selling just as well or better than a few spare FEAR ITSELF mini's and one-shots, aside for ALPHA FLIGHT.

- MOON KNIGHT #2 slid 14k from the debut and is barely clinging to the Top 45. Still, that's a better start than the character has had in years, thanks to the creative team.

- We are now at a point where THE WALKING DEAD outsells HULK by a healthy margin.

- Want to know why INCREDIBLE HULKS needed a relaunch? It's outsold by THUNDERBOLTS and is barely over 28k. That's very embarrassing for the flagship Hulk book. Much like Wolverine, Marvel is slow to notice he's a B-Lister and they kept giving him secondary titles.

- VENOM #4 slid another 2k from May's issue, but 38k by issue four is still healthier than a few ongoings Marvel has launched. This should last a year, at least. Still, that is a higher drop than from issues #2 to #3. Still, by issue #4, AVENGERS ACADEMY was down to 31k, and it'll likely last two years.

- It seems FEAR ITSELF has provided minor boosts to smaller titles. THUNDERBOLTS #158 saw a 3k boost from May.

- AVENGERS ACADEMY #15 also saw a 3k boost for it's FI issue, selling 26k. The last time it sold anywhere near 26k was in May, when it sold almost 25k. It has been a rock solid title this year, selling no less than 23k copies per issue since February. Thus, a modest bounce from a crossover is promising. Since T-Bolts also saw a 3k boost, I am liable to attribute this more to FI than the Academy characters (and writer) appearing in two issues of the Top 10 selling ASM, but that likely didn't hurt either. At any rate, plans for a 21st issue have been made and the series may see it's 2nd year, a milestone for Marvel launches - especially given it's most popular character is Giant-Man and it features a cast of ethnically and gender diverse teenagers who are all new characters. The 14.1 issue also sold at 23k, or about where regular issues sell - a sign of a small but loyal audience - the sort of audience that kept RUNAWAYS and NOVA afloat for years.

- At least for a month, AA outsold X-23 and DAKEN. Both titles are still bleeding readers every month.
 
- While FF is still losing sales every month from it's relaunch high, those slips are lessoning and it is still a Top 5 seller - and outsells NEW AVENGERS.

This list is so predictable from month to month. I can name 5 books that are easily better than FF or NA month in/month out. This list will be exactly the same for July except DD will be #1. Somethings gotta give eventually, things don't last forever.

- WOLVERINE, who continues to be treated as an A-Lister with no end of spin-off's, struggles to sell in the Top 30. He's become a B-Lister, only Marvel don't notice.

It's not Aaron's greatest work but it's been fair. I'm looking forward to his Hulk relaunch more.

- VENOM #4 slid another 2k from May's issue, but 38k by issue four is still healthier than a few ongoings Marvel has launched. This should last a year, at least. Still, that is a higher drop than from issues #2 to #3. Still, by issue #4, AVENGERS ACADEMY was down to 31k, and it'll likely last two years.

Based on this, I would say that Venom should go 2yrs easy, which is about as long as I expect Remender to stay. I can see this book going 6 months into a new creative team. This book has nothing going against it except for the day Flash is revealed to Peter as being Venom.


- It seems FEAR ITSELF has provided minor boosts to smaller titles. THUNDERBOLTS #158 saw a 3k boost from May.

The only good thing about Fear Itself so far......the trickle down effect.


- AVENGERS ACADEMY #15 also saw a 3k boost for it's FI issue, selling 26k. The last time it sold anywhere near 26k was in May, when it sold almost 25k. It has been a rock solid title this year, selling no less than 23k copies per issue since February. Thus, a modest bounce from a crossover is promising. Since T-Bolts also saw a 3k boost, I am liable to attribute this more to FI than the Academy characters (and writer) appearing in two issues of the Top 10 selling ASM, but that likely didn't hurt either. At any rate, plans for a 21st issue have been made and the series may see it's 2nd year, a milestone for Marvel launches - especially given it's most popular character is Giant-Man and it features a cast of ethnically and gender diverse teenagers who are all new characters. The 14.1 issue also sold at 23k, or about where regular issues sell - a sign of a small but loyal audience - the sort of audience that kept RUNAWAYS and NOVA afloat for years.

Positive news for sure. Nova and GOTG lasted 3 years....? I can live with that for AA. They have given the go ahead for a year 2. In my perfect world, this book will go at least 75 issues.

- At least for a month, AA outsold X-23 and DAKEN. Both titles are still bleeding readers every month.

Daken has been really good with Rob Williams (writer of the Ghost Rider relaunch). I don't plan on jumping ship from Daken DW just yet.
 
This list is so predictable from month to month. I can name 5 books that are easily better than FF or NA month in/month out. This list will be exactly the same for July except DD will be #1. Somethings gotta give eventually, things don't last forever.

In fairness, it could be considered embarrassing that FEAR ITSELF #1 was the only issue that sold over 100k, and that issues #2 and #3 have sold 95-96k, while USM #160 sold about 159k - or more than SIEGE #1 sold last year. Marvel literally gets more bang out of it's buck killing off characters now than they do in crossovers - at least for that initial month.

Marvel's top books are usually the ones they invest in the most promoting. Thus, Bendis' Avenger books, ASM, the crossover du jour and now FF.

That said, the drops per month in sales of the Top 100 or so have become steady and consistent. 2009 was a "standing pat" year and 2010 ended on a downer. 2011 has continued that trend. In that regard, perhaps it is understandable that DC did something which is clearly desperate with their NEW 52. You know what they say about desperate times. The problem is there is not a single person working at Marvel or DC in any position of authority who has anything close to a new, original and innovative idea that is grounded in current reality. The best they can offer is a copy of a strategy that worked in a prior decade. Whether that decade was in the 70's or 90's depends on how old they are.

It's not Aaron's greatest work but it's been fair. I'm looking forward to his Hulk relaunch more.

I liked Aaron's work on GHOST RIDER(S). I thought his ASTONISHING SPIDER-MAN & WOLVERINE was hit or miss. I haven't reach much else from him. He's not on my **** list like some writers are on, though.

Based on this, I would say that Venom should go 2yrs easy, which is about as long as I expect Remender to stay. I can see this book going 6 months into a new creative team. This book has nothing going against it except for the day Flash is revealed to Peter as being Venom.

"2 years easy" is not a prediction I make on ANYTHING. I mean, not even relaunches of WOLVERINE titles last that long without a relaunch anymore. Still, as I said, VENOM is looking to be the healthiest ASM spin off in years.

The only good thing about Fear Itself so far......the trickle down effect.

In some cases. HERC #4 saw no boost whatsoever from it's FI tie in. In fact, while still selling over 18k (barely), it saw a slide of over 750 copies since May. In May, it shipped two issues and the second issue was a FI title that boosted sales by about 1400 copies just to get to 18,755. That alone is a number which is below Marvel's usual cancellation range of 19k for ongoing titles. HERC's boost will not likely improve upon where it fell at the start of May for long.

HEROES FOR HIRE is another title selling at 18k. It's FI issue is in June, but it will remain to be seen if it sees a boost. Unlike HERC, H4H is being canceled at issue #12, will exist as a one shot/mini for SPIDER-ISLAND, and then be relaunched as VILLAINS FOR HIRE at the end of the year. However, Marvel still plans to sell HERC with it's current numbering in October; by then it might be selling at MARVEL ADVENTURES levels.

Marvel seems to not quit on certain books, Pak/Van Lente Hercules material being among them. I don't know whether this has anything to do with critical appeal, a tenacious editor, or the simple fact that Marvel's publishing strategy is "bury 'em with books", so they know they'll just replace any title they cancel with two new ones anyway, so they are slow to outright cancel something these days. Perhaps HERC's trades are supplementing sales a little; the CHAOS WAR trade sold decently.

HERC is an interesting case. It's debut in April sold over 38k, and was the best selling Hercules issue since 2009. Yet sales tanked over 55% with issue two and FI at best has temporarily slowed the bleeding of a title that is DOA in terms of sales. The message I get are twofold; there is an audience for Hercules, but it is either overestimated, or something about the relaunch wasn't as appealing. Maybe fans don't like that Hercules is a depowered street hero in Brooklyn (even if he is still fighting similar threats). Maybe fans miss Amadeus Cho on the book; this is the first time in years Herc has been sold without his sidekick. In fact, the last time any installment of this saga was selling at 17-18k was in HEROIC AGE: PRINCE OF POWER, which starred Cho and had Herc absent. While Cho cannot sell a solo book on his own, maybe Herc can't sell one without Cho, either. They have been attached at the hip since 2008, after all. CHAOS WAR showed that Marvel can still get this material to sell above 24k, but they also promoted that story decently, and it had a lot of over the top god action. Maybe the lesson of HERC is not to fix what ain't broke.

It is a shame, because I don't mind HERC's status quo. Even if Herc is a little more boring without his brighter sidekick. I don't mind something different, nor did I think Chaos War would have counted as much if Herc wasn't somehow changed after it; ending an "all or nothing" saga with nothing lost or gained is something Thor does, and that never works, right? :whatever:

Positive news for sure. Nova and GOTG lasted 3 years....? I can live with that for AA. They have given the go ahead for a year 2. In my perfect world, this book will go at least 75 issues.

NOVA lasted 3 years exactly. GOTG lasted for two.

75 issues may be pushing it. If sales are still at 23k by issue 24, then we can talk. I am very pleased it is hanging in there, even if it is a shame the best Avengers book sells the poorest.

Daken has been really good with Rob Williams (writer of the Ghost Rider relaunch). I don't plan on jumping ship from Daken DW just yet.

Good to know the WolverWaynes have some supporters. What? All Logan needs is a book for Jubilee, and for a new sidekick who became a villain, died, comes back, and then acts like a jerk. I guess that means Albert & Elsie Dee.

More observations:

- MYSTERY MEN, while a solid mini in terms of story, represents one of those, "what did they expect?" launches. It's a mini series by a creative team with little to no name power, which is a period piece, which is selling new characters. Thus, issue one of the mini sold at 16k. Dudes, not even Ed Brubaker could keep MARVELS PROJECT selling north of the Top 60 all the way through. It's second issue later that month sold below 13k, and sales by issue five may be very ugly. Like, BIG HERO 6 ugly.

- The final issue of NAMOR: THE FIRST MUTANT sells at barely above 11k. The water man just can't sell a book, and hasn't since John Byrne's day. Great idea to give him a FI mini, eh? Blood from a stone, folks. FEAR ITSELF: THE DEEP #1 sold at 23,400 copies.

- WOLVERINE: THE BEST THERE IS has fallen to 22k. How long will Marvel let the B-title of Logan's that nobody wanted, which has been ravaged in reviews, survive? Is the world screaming for two Wolverine books ATOP the books for his useless kids now? Did it EVER!?

- ANNIHILATORS #4 finishes at 21k. That's a little low for the space opera series, but then again, it starred characters who weren't Nova or Star-Lord.

- The best selling spare FEAR ITSELF mini is the one for Spider-Man, which sells in the Top 60 (at #60) with over 30k. The best selling FLASHPOINT mini was BATMAN: KNIGHT OF VENGEANCE, which sold in the Top 25. Most of those FLASHPOINT mini's sold within the Top 75. The same cannot be said for the spare FI mini's. FEAR ITSELF: THE HOME FRONT #3 fell to the Top 90 with over 25,700 copies. It was #53 of the Top 60 in May. FEAR ITSELF: YOUTH IN REVOLT debuted at 24k and has fallen way below the top 115 with over 20k sold; I still contest that Marvel would have sold more copies had they simply titled it FEAR ITSELF: AVENGERS THE INITIATIVE or AVENGERS THE INITIATIVE: FEAR ITSELF, but Marvel like to make things harder for themselves. The word "practicality" is a curse-word in the bullpen. "YOUTH IN REVOLT" is such a lame title for anything. Instead of calling it X-MEN, imagine if I titled it FREAKS GETTING UPPITY, and you get my drift. This merely tells me whoever is in charge of titles of some comics is old enough to remember when William McKinley was shot.

- AVENGERS: THE CHILDREN'S CRUSADE has fallen to 30k, which is lower than the last two issues; by that schedule, this is the poorest selling issue of the year. It'll wrap in December, hopefully.
 
I liked Aaron's work on GHOST RIDER(S). I thought his ASTONISHING SPIDER-MAN & WOLVERINE was hit or miss. I haven't reach much else from him. He's not on my **** list like some writers are on, though.

I wasn't really into Aaron then. He's blown me away with PunisherMAX for sure. I categorize him as a writer that I'll always try something new from him. The Astonishing SM/Wolverine book was very miss for me. The schedule sucked and the premise did nothing for me. When it becomes "work" to keep up with a books schedule I usually bail. That was my problem with Children's Crusade until things got interesting last issue.

"2 years easy" is not a prediction I make on ANYTHING. I mean, not even relaunches of WOLVERINE titles last that long without a relaunch anymore. Still, as I said, VENOM is looking to be the healthiest ASM spin off in years.
I think it's funny that Venom is now the only successful ASM spin off. Back in the 90's it was an endless stream of Venom mini's that flooded the market and was on the receiving end of all the fingerpointing due to the speculator bubble collapse....(among other things).


- The final issue of NAMOR: THE FIRST MUTANT sells at barely above 11k. The water man just can't sell a book, and hasn't since John Byrne's day. Great idea to give him a FI mini, eh? Blood from a stone, folks. FEAR ITSELF: THE DEEP #1 sold at 23,400 copies.
Back then Marvel would also put on the industry's top writer/artists on a c-list book. You don't really get that now except for Bendis on Moon Knight. I think it's a practice they should bring back more often. If one of their big guns is going to write 3 or 4 books, why can't one of those be for a character that historically doesn't sell well?


- AVENGERS: THE CHILDREN'S CRUSADE has fallen to 30k, which is lower than the last two issues; by that schedule, this is the poorest selling issue of the year. It'll wrap in December, hopefully.
Lowest and ironically, the best issue so far. I don't think sales will rebound, the folks that left probably left due to the infrequency of shipping for this book. Hopefully it does wrap by year end but from the sound of things, it has no choice. The conclusion has heavy ties to the endings of Schism and Fear Itself.
 

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