The 2012 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Debate

[DACrowe]

Bachmann is a fringe candidate. The media is talking about her because Trump is out of the picture, to the general public, Ron Paul is so 2008, and we need a fringe candidate to entertain us. Eventually she will either say or do something crazy enough to make people forget about her.

She is going to win Iowa. She is 2012's Mike Huckabee. Honestly I hope the base coalesces around her and gets her the nomination, because Obama would defeat her easily, bad economy or not. But she doesn't have enough money and there aren't enough crackpots in the GOP to get her the nomination. She'll win Iowa and maybe, maybe South Carolina. But Romney will probably take the rest. Politically Romney is the GOP's best chance and it is tradition for the white guy who almost got the nomination one or two cycles ago to get it. So, unless Perry enters the race, that is how it should play out.

 

[Kelly]

Mitt Romney is being shown far too much respect by everyone else tonight.

Someone call him out already.

He's too popular in New Hampshire to slam him right now....wait until after the new Hampshire Primary....

 

[Kelly]

To be fair, Biden has been a horrible choice as well.

Yeah, he hasn't even been entertaining....it's kind of weird to have a Secretary of State that is ALSO the VP....

 

[Kelly]

If Romney has anything, it's his ability to not answer a single ****ing question and dodge/avoid everything thrown at him. His whole campaign might as well be: "forget about me, Obama sucks". Son of a ***** might slip through his RomneyCare debacle.

It worked for Obama 2008....

 

[Marx]

Romney is no Obama though. He's not that good.

 

[Kelly]

If economy improves Obama will win in a landslide.

A dead Bin Laden and a averted recession. Nobody can challenge that.

Well, according to the Stock Market, that ain't happening....and the negative the Stock Market is showing right now, (last 6 + weeks) will show up ABBBOOOOUUUUTTTTTTT oh look at that, March - May, 2012....damn that will suck.

 

[Kelly]

These Candidates better figure this out fast.....this little issue will make teachers change their vote, I guarantee it.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepoliticalsystem/a/teacherswant.htm

 

[hippie_hunter]

She is going to win Iowa. She is 2012's Mike Huckabee. Honestly I hope the base coalesces around her and gets her the nomination, because Obama would defeat her easily, bad economy or not. But she doesn't have enough money and there aren't enough crackpots in the GOP to get her the nomination. She'll win Iowa and maybe, maybe South Carolina. But Romney will probably take the rest. Politically Romney is the GOP's best chance and it is tradition for the white guy who almost got the nomination one or two cycles ago to get it. So, unless Perry enters the race, that is how it should play out.

The one thing that will hurt Bachmann in Iowa is that Santorum and Pawlenty will be siphoning votes off of her because they are trying to get the same votes that she is trying to get. What allowed Mike Huckabee to swoop in and win Iowa in 2008 was that there just wasn't any other alternative for social conservatives.

You also have to take into account that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will also be more powerful in 2012 than they were in 2008, and while they won't be heavily competing in Iowa, they are still going to be a major presence. Mitt is being treated as the frontrunner this time around and he has a lot more money on his side, and Paul also has a lot more money, energy, and focus than he did in 2008.

I would put Bachmann as the favorite to win Iowa, but because of Pawlenty, Santorum, and Paul to a much lesser extent, I wouldn't be surprised if Romney ends up winning Iowa simply because Bachmann will have minor candidates taking votes away from her, and Romney wins more by default.

And on a side note, I wouldn't use money issues as an argument against Bachmann. Like Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, she is very, very good at fundraising.

 

[Matt]

She is going to win Iowa. She is 2012's Mike Huckabee. Honestly I hope the base coalesces around her and gets her the nomination, because Obama would defeat her easily, bad economy or not. But she doesn't have enough money and there aren't enough crackpots in the GOP to get her the nomination. She'll win Iowa and maybe, maybe South Carolina. But Romney will probably take the rest. Politically Romney is the GOP's best chance and it is tradition for the white guy who almost got the nomination one or two cycles ago to get it. So, unless Perry enters the race, that is how it should play out.

Like you said though, she doesn't have the fundraising ability or the resources to run a serious campaign. And as Hippie_Hunter pointed out, there are better known, better funded social conservatives in the race. And I'm still not sure that Chris Christie won't jump in (how they will love him in Iowa). I think in the end, Bachmann will lose Iowa due to the other social conservatives splitting votes.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Bachmann is one of the best fundraisers in the House of Representatives. She has the abilities and I think she'll be better at fundraising than Santorum and Pawlenty.

 

[Matt]

Bachmann is one of the best fundraisers in the House of Representatives. She has the abilities and I think she'll be better at fundraising than Santorum and Pawlenty.

Its one thing to raise the money needed to run a House campaign. Its quite another to raise the money needed to run a presidential or even state-wide campaign. Santorum has done it (at least on a state level) as has Pawlenty.

One big advantage for Pawlenty is that big Republican donors want to win above all else but the more conservative ones do not necessarily trust or want Romney. Therefore they may dump a lot of money into the Pawlenty campaign just by the merit of him being a VIABLE candidate who is not Romney.

Of course, I'm still not sold that we aren't going to see a viable conservative candidate like Perry or Christie jump into the race.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Its one thing to raise the money needed to run a House campaign. Its quite another to raise the money needed to run a presidential or even state-wide campaign. Santorum has done it (at least on a state level) as has Pawlenty.

But that is because Bachmann has simply campaigned at a more local level. She can do well at a national level if she keeps up with the momentum she has recently gained. TPaw and Santorum are going to raise the money that they need, but Bachmann will do better than them.

One big advantage for Pawlenty is that big Republican donors want to win above all else but the more conservative ones do not necessarily trust or want Romney. Therefore they may dump a lot of money into the Pawlenty campaign just by the merit of him being a VIABLE candidate who is not Romney.

Conservative donors don't want Pawlenty. They wanted Mitch Daniels, they want Chris Christie, they want Rick Perry, they want someone who isn't as much of a lame-o like TPaw. Who do you think pressured Daniels to run the most? The big GOP donors because they didn't have any faith in TPaw's abilities to counter Romney. Which was proven last night at the debate. In the end, Pawlenty's fundraising abilities pale in comparison to the likes of Romney, Paul, and Bachmann.

 

[Matt]

But that is because Bachmann has simply campaigned at a more local level. She can do well at a national level if she keeps up with the momentum she has recently gained. TPaw and Santorum are going to raise the money that they need, but Bachmann will do better than them.

She is only gaining momentum because she is a nut. Guess where that momentum will go if Sarah Palin or a bigger, more marketable nut enters the race.

Conservative donors don't want Pawlenty. They wanted Mitch Daniels, they want Chris Christie, they want Rick Perry, they want someone who isn't as much of a lame-o like TPaw. Who do you think pressured Daniels to run the most? The big GOP donors because they didn't have any faith in TPaw's abilities to counter Romney. Which was proven last night at the debate. In the end, Pawlenty's fundraising abilities pale in comparison to the likes of Romney, Paul, and Bachmann.

But if Daniels and Christie opt not to enter the race by say....October or so, I think that they will ultimately start to give Pawlenty their money.

 

[enterthemadness]

So, off topic, but in the last election I voted for Obama (that worked out so well). DO I need to re-registered to vote for RON PAUL?

RON PAUL 2012....FOR DA WIN.

 

[Matt]

Which state will you be voting in?

 

[enterthemadness]

Which state will you be voting in?

The Great Land of (Tobacco) North Carolina, sir.

 

[hippie_hunter]

She is only gaining momentum because she is a nut. Guess where that momentum will go if Sarah Palin or a bigger, more marketable nut enters the race.

Michelle Bachmann is gaining momentum because she actually did a good job in presenting herself as an alternative to the Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin voters. As a matter in fact, she kinda kicked Palin out of the race IMO because she's far more coherent and upfront about her intentions as opposed to always dodging the media, often being incoherent, and constantly playing coy with her intentions Sarah Palin. Bachmann is a better Sarah Palin than Sarah Palin and voters are going to like that.

But if Daniels and Christie opt not to enter the race by say....October or so, I think that they will ultimately start to give Pawlenty their money.

By October, if Romney has solidified his status as frontrunner, donors are just going to give their money to Romney. In the end what the big GOP donors want is a winner. They don't see TPaw as a winner one bit. While they may have preferred someone else (hence why they tried to get Daniels and Christie in the race), in the end they will just shrug, sigh, and sign their checks over to Romney. If they had any faith in TPaw, they would have already backed him and they wouldn't have tried to get Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie.

 

[DACrowe]

She is only gaining momentum because she is a nut. Guess where that momentum will go if Sarah Palin or a bigger, more marketable nut enters the race.

Palin isn't running. She's the only one who could take steam out of Bachmann's sails and after last night, I'm starting to doubt that. Bachmann is every bit as bat ___ crazy as Palin, but as I said last night she has one huge advantage--syntax. So, she seems to be the hard working version of Palin going to the debates and articulating her craziness in full sentences. By the time Palin would enter the race in August or September (which she won't), Bachmann should have the market on Tea Party nutjobs cornered. Bachmann is going to make Santorum as irrelevant as Paul has made Gary Johnson. There isn't room for both of them and one is a media darling in certain circles with a brand name and one isn't.

But if Daniels and Christie opt not to enter the race by say....October or so, I think that they will ultimately start to give Pawlenty their money.

Daniels isn't running because he has publicly declared he won't run. If he got into it now, he'd just look weak and indecisive. If you're not in the race by early September, it's moved on. Christie has so vehemently denied he's running, I honestly believe him when he says that he doesn't think he's ready. He'll probably run in 2016 (or 2020 if Obama loses). But Obama is still formidable, if less so now than he was a month ago, and Christie has only been governor for a year. He can wait it out. Rick Perry is the only possible late-entry who could turn this on its head, in my opinion.

As for TPaw. Last night crystalized why he can't get the nomination. I was coming around to Dox's theory that by being just the most vanilla candidate in the room he'd get the nomination. But he continues to poll in single digits while Romney is gaining more and more support as a frontrunner. How do you stop a frontrunner? By drawing blood. Romney has numerous weaknesses because he has been on both sides of nearly every issue in the last 10-15 years. That includes health care reform and the individual mandate. He is so vulnerable in that spot and Pawlenty refused to jab at it last night even though he already took his first punch the day before on Fox News Sunday. That tells me he is weak and feckless. I suspect that all the GOP donors saw that too. Someone that submissive cannot beat Obama. I mean I hope he gets the nomination for that reason, but donors stuck between Romney and Pawlenty (while seeing the Tea Partiers and social conservatives coalesce around crazy-woman Bachmann) will shut their eyes, hold up their noses and write Romney his check/extortion money.

If Rick Perry gets into the race, that changes everything I just said.

 

[yoshimura]

Politically Romney is the GOP's best chance

Romney voted like a Democrat on so many issues that he doesn't have any credibility. He's the cream of status quo, a continuation of Barrack W Obama.

Paul has the most credibility, has stuck to the same message for 24 years, is the only candidate who served in the arm forces and who wants actually change… meaning that USA won't go down the crapper (economically speaking) if things go his way. All candidates are sounding a lot more like Paul this go around.

 

[yoshimura]

Not the first time this happens. Big Media bias

CNN reports Ron Paul at ZERO PERCENT on their online poll when he was really leading with 75%

 

[hippie_hunter]

That's messed up.

 

[DACrowe]

Romney voted like a Democrat on so many issues that he doesn't have any credibility. He's the cream of status quo, a continuation of Barrack W Obama.

Paul has the most credibility, has stuck to the same message for 24 years, is the only candidate who served in the arm forces and who wants actually change… meaning that USA won't go down the crapper (economically speaking) if things go his way. All candidates are sounding a lot more like Paul this go around.

I think Paul is the most honest. Insane, but honest. I do agree Romney is a flip flopping self-serving politician and I hope he doesn't get the nomination, because he is the hardest (right now on the field) for Obama to beat.

Paul has zero chance of getting the nomination. You watch last night and you see he is just furniture on the stage. I do wonder how he would do if he could ever get to a general election, but I think he is too gaffe ridden on issues that would leave moderates closed (like Ryan's Vouchercare on steroids). Then again, in a recession he may seem refreshing to independents. But it doesn't matter, he won't get the nomination this or any year.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Yeah, I don't see Paul getting the nomination. He'll probably end up in third or fourth place.

 

[yoshimura]

I think Paul is the most honest. Insane, but honest. I do agree Romney is a flip flopping self-serving politician and I hope he doesn't get the nomination, because he is the hardest (right now on the field) for Obama to beat.

Paul has zero chance of getting the nomination. You watch last night and you see he is just furniture on the stage. I do wonder how he would do if he could ever get to a general election, but I think he is too gaffe ridden on issues that would leave moderates closed (like Ryan's Vouchercare on steroids). Then again, in a recession he may seem refreshing to independents. But it doesn't matter, he won't get the nomination this or any year.

According to polls (I'll dig them up tomorrow): Among independents, Paul scores the best versus the other candidates. In a general election situation, Paul was the only GOP candidate who polled better than Obama.

Independents, moderates and the people on the "left" are quite likely to vote for Ron.

As for "insanity", the platform of the other candidates will bankrupt the country, which is kinda insane if you ask me The majority of people want out of the wars and smaller government; both of which Paul represents.


and for everyones entertainment:
http://multiplechoicemitt.com/

 

[enterthemadness]

If Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ain't President in 2012, I might as well move to Canada, cause America is gonna get worse...